Rolex production numbers and future value

[NukeMan]

Hi all! Having tried to find information on how many watches Rolex produces a year I've found a few different numbers on-line of which none are official as Rolex does not publish this number, to the best of my knowledge. Speculations on-line seem to be in the range of 0,7-1.1 million watches/year. Comparing these numbers with annual production numbers back in, say, the late 60's indicate that there has been an explosion of production. Knowing a bit about the general mechanics of demand and supply and the obvious link between rareness and second hand prices (in addition to ceramic bezels and modern luminova inserts not fading, which means that these watches will probably look pretty much the same in 20+ years besides wear) the production numbers have me concerned about the future value of today's modern Rolexes. Buying a watch for big bucks I want them to retain good value at least for my children.

What are your thoughts? Any info on the current production numbers and how they are distributed between sports models and "the rest"; steel vs precious metals? What do you think of the future vintage value of today's watches? Are new watches at all worth buying out of a collector's perspective?

[Old Expat Beast]

Most here will tell you that Rolex produce so many watches now that new models will never be collectible. The emergence of the Chinese middle class in the tens of millions in recent years however, and that country's appetite for Rolex, suggests that demand could outstrip supply at some point, especially when Chinese consumers get the vintage bug. Hong Kong's vintage dealers are waiting to pounce, I'm sure.

[Speed]

Thoughts? Here's one...Live for today.

No info on production #s...but if you look up how many watches COSC certifies, you can approximate the # Rolex produces.

You can collect anything you want...key question is, are you really looking for some sort of super-normal appreciation? Very unlikely with any modern Rolex given the #s produced 800K-1MM / year.

New watches are worth buying to wear / enjoy and pass to you kids if they will only do likewise.

[waspy1]

I wouldn't be expecting to pass on a significant portion of my wealth to my kids in the form of watches. There are plenty other investments for this. For a personal keepsake which you can pass on to subsequent generations you won't find much better than a high quality watch which can be maintained over many years. I wouldn't get hung up on the financial part of it at all.


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[T. Ferguson]

I'm not going to say a modern Rolex will never be a rare collectible. It just seems to me that logically, if you hold on to something long enough it will eventually become rare. But it will take longer with the greater production levels for enough pieces to disappear to make the ones left rare. It won't happen in the original owner's lifetime. But I can't help but think theoretically everything becomes rare eventually, so I'm not willing to go so far ass to say no modern Rolex will ever become rare. But I wouldn't bank on it, that's for sure.

Currently my oldest Rolex is a 16610 from the 90's. I doubt I will ever see it become a rare piece, but it has gone up in value and in fact is worth a good deal more than I paid for it but not because it is rare. The reason is (besides that I bought it right), and this to me is the main factor in the future value of any Rolex you own or buy today:

The ability of Rolex to continue raising prices.

This will drive the used market for your modern watches more than rarity will. At least until your great, great grand kid's children inherit your collection.

[Stefman]

Originally Posted by T. Ferguson

The ability of Rolex to continue raising prices.

This will drive the used market for your modern watches more than rarity will. At least until your great, great grand kid's children inherit your collection.

Bingo! That's it. Chances are Rolex will keep raising prices as long as key countries like China, India, Russia and Brazil keep growing and having more and more people that can afford and want to buy Rolex watches.


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[kilyung]

A) no modern Rolex will be "collectible" IMO
B) watches are horrible investments, even Rolex
C) just enjoy the watches

[padi56]

Originally Posted by kilyung

A) no modern Rolex will be "collectible" IMO
B) watches are horrible investments, even Rolex
C) just enjoy the watches

X2 And IMHO in some ways its sad to think that Rolex watches today are thought of as little more than £££££$$$$$.Gone are the days of buying a Rolex watch because you wanted to own and wear that particular model you had chosen.

[Danny83]

Originally Posted by kilyung

a) no modern rolex will be "collectible" imo
b) watches are horrible investments, even rolex
c) just enjoy the watches

x2

[Rashid.bk]

Rolexes, baseball cards, comic books, etc were all so collectible and valuable because they were from an era where people actually used things. No one said, this will be collectible, let me care for it....items that came from that era really survived, so for someone to have a 1930's baseball card in pristine condition was a miracle, no one worried about showering with their Rolex or bracelet stretch.
No one new Superman or Spiderman would be iconic global personalities.

What do we have today, every one storing everything, preserving this or that, few are using an item thinking they'll hit the jackpot with their #1 issue of "Phanthom Blaster". The future will be full of brand new looking Rolexes, thousands and thousands of safe queens and weekend watches that never even saw a beach, not to mention the build materials are more timeless with ceramics, newer steels, better seals....

Rolex/mechanical watches have two things going for them that may aid in appreciation:
1- Price increases and luxury item inflation. Another 30 years and a Rolex Submariner will be $25K. While people will generally make more, it will be more and more out of reach for many.

2- The new digital age will keep pushing and pushing at the doorstep of mechanical watches. As much as we here may not like them, the iWatch is coming and Sony and Samsung will improve their offerings and others are lining up. Not so much another quartz crisis but the "smart watch" will be a force to be reckoned with, especially to smaller houses. Swatch group is already controlling and restricting movements and components, particularly hairsprings, a key ingredient in mechanical watches, and they're getting more aggressive as time goes.

As this new era ushers in, mechanical watches will see a resurgence from nostalgist, and preservationist, trendy/hip wealthy people who want to make a statement with a mechanical watch, which stands for maturity, refinement and appreciating of history and culture, but not so much to do with horology and quality. The luxury attribute will shine through more than anything else.

But...
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Who cares, enjoy your watch, life is short. Just yesterday a 58 year male of general good health had a heart attack and passed(there's underlying factors under investigation, but he was only "58 years old").
I would value an heirloom from my Dad that I know he used and abused that was with him through his military days, his divorce, poverty, rain or shine, etc...than something that was pulled out of storage that he never touched. If it's a money thing, sure a first edition BNIB Submariner would be amazing, but for sentimental and emotional reasons that beat up one with his blood sweat and tears would be way more special.
But if it's just about money, then this method is the least preferred.

I'll just enjoy my watch, screw resale and collectibility, life is way too short. Stay safe and stay healthy everyone.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Rolexes, baseball cards, comic books, etc were all so collectible and valuable because they were from an era where people actually used things. No one said, this will be collectible, let me care for it....items that came from that era really survived, so for someone to have a 1930's baseball card in pristine condition was a miracle, no one worried about showering with their Rolex or bracelet stretch.
No one new Superman or Spiderman would be iconic global personalities.

What do we have today, every one storing everything, preserving this or that, few are using an item thinking they'll hit the jackpot with their #1 issue of "Phanthom Blaster". The future will be full of brand new looking Rolexes, thousands and thousands of safe queens and weekend watches that never even saw a beach, not to mention the build materials are more timeless with ceramics, newer steels, better seals....

Rolex/mechanical watches have two things going for them that may aid in appreciation:
1- Price increases and luxury item inflation. Another 30 years and a Rolex Submariner will be $25K. While people will generally make more, it will be more and more out of reach for many.

2- The new digital age will keep pushing and pushing at the doorstep of mechanical watches. As much as we here may not like them, the iWatch is coming and Sony and Samsung will improve their offerings and others are lining up. Not so much another quartz crisis but the "smart watch" will be a force to be reckoned with, especially to smaller houses. Swatch group is already controlling and restricting movements and components, particularly hairsprings, a key ingredient in mechanical watches, and they're getting more aggressive as time goes.

As this new era ushers in, mechanical watches will see a resurgence from nostalgist, and preservationist, trendy/hip wealthy people who want to make a statement with a mechanical watch, which stands for maturity, refinement and appreciating of history and culture, but not so much to do with horology and quality. The luxury attribute will shine through more than anything else.

But...
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Who cares, enjoy your watch, life is short. Just yesterday a 58 year male of general good health had a heart attack and passed(there's underlying factors under investigation, but he was only "58 years old").
I would value an heirloom from my Dad that I know he used and abused that was with him through his military days, his divorce, poverty, rain or shine, etc...than something that was pulled out of storage that he never touched. If it's a money thing, sure a first edition BNIB Submariner would be amazing, but for sentimental and emotional reasons that beat up one with his blood sweat and tears would be way more special.
But if it's just about money, then this method is the least preferred.

I'll just enjoy my watch, screw resale and collectibility, life is way too short. Stay safe and stay healthy everyone.

Excellent post and myself have had a few visits from the grim reaper over the past few years but beat him back with a big stick.So for me at the moment the most important thing is that everyday I beat my own previous record for number of consecutive days I've stayed alive.And the most precious thing we have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value, not even for a Rolex watch that may or not be collectible or increase in value..

[Rashid.bk]

Originally Posted by padi56

So for me at the moment the most important thing is that everyday I beat my own previous record for number of consecutive days I've stayed alive.And the most precious thing we have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value, not even for a Rolex watch that may or not be collectible or increase in value..

I wish you many many more healthy years ahead Peter. Many just don't realise how little time we actually have on this earth in the scheme of things.

It'd be nice to leave my son/daughter a watch, sure....but it'd be way more beneficial if I leave him a paid off house in modern liveable conditions, no debt and some stocks. My two cents, but I'm no expert or financial planner, what do I know.

Have a nice wkend all. Stay safe.

[NukeMan]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

I wish you many many more healthy years ahead Peter. Many just don't realise how little time we actually have on this earth in the scheme of things.

It'd be nice to leave my son/daughter a watch, sure....but it'd be way more beneficial if I leave him a paid off house in modern liveable conditions, no debt and some stocks. My two cents, but I'm no expert or financial planner, what do I know.

Have a nice wkend all. Stay safe.

Very well said, it really put things in perspective! Have a nice weekend all.

[HL65]

Originally Posted by Rashid.bk

Rolexes, baseball cards, comic books, etc were all so collectible and valuable because they were from an era where people actually used things. No one said, this will be collectible, let me care for it....items that came from that era really survived, so for someone to have a 1930's baseball card in pristine condition was a miracle, no one worried about showering with their Rolex or bracelet stretch.
No one new Superman or Spiderman would be iconic global personalities.

What do we have today, every one storing everything, preserving this or that, few are using an item thinking they'll hit the jackpot with their #1 issue of "Phanthom Blaster". The future will be full of brand new looking Rolexes, thousands and thousands of safe queens and weekend watches that never even saw a beach, not to mention the build materials are more timeless with ceramics, newer steels, better seals....

Rolex/mechanical watches have two things going for them that may aid in appreciation:
1- Price increases and luxury item inflation. Another 30 years and a Rolex Submariner will be $25K. While people will generally make more, it will be more and more out of reach for many.

2- The new digital age will keep pushing and pushing at the doorstep of mechanical watches. As much as we here may not like them, the iWatch is coming and Sony and Samsung will improve their offerings and others are lining up. Not so much another quartz crisis but the "smart watch" will be a force to be reckoned with, especially to smaller houses. Swatch group is already controlling and restricting movements and components, particularly hairsprings, a key ingredient in mechanical watches, and they're getting more aggressive as time goes.

As this new era ushers in, mechanical watches will see a resurgence from nostalgist, and preservationist, trendy/hip wealthy people who want to make a statement with a mechanical watch, which stands for maturity, refinement and appreciating of history and culture, but not so much to do with horology and quality. The luxury attribute will shine through more than anything else.

But...
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
Who cares, enjoy your watch, life is short. Just yesterday a 58 year male of general good health had a heart attack and passed(there's underlying factors under investigation, but he was only "58 years old").
I would value an heirloom from my Dad that I know he used and abused that was with him through his military days, his divorce, poverty, rain or shine, etc...than something that was pulled out of storage that he never touched. If it's a money thing, sure a first edition BNIB Submariner would be amazing, but for sentimental and emotional reasons that beat up one with his blood sweat and tears would be way more special.
But if it's just about money, then this method is the least preferred.

I'll just enjoy my watch, screw resale and collectibility, life is way too short. Stay safe and stay healthy everyone.

Well said Rashid!

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by NukeMan

What are your thoughts?

I buy a watch because I like the way it looks on my wrist and the time keeping performance.

Watches are not investments.

[Dr g]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I buy a watch because I like the way it looks on my wrist and the time keeping performance.



Watches are not investments.

Agree.

Wear and enjoy.


Sent from the place to be

[Chaching]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I buy a watch because I like the way it looks on my wrist and the time keeping performance.

Watches are not investments.

A Little story..my Dad purchased a Solid Gold GMTII back in 1969 for $1,000. He recently sold it for $16,500. True story.

[Scottie]

I finally bought my SS and black Sub on the Feb 11th and I can't wait to put it on and wear it everyday. If the value goes up or just stays the same doesn't matter to me I love the Sub and will enjoy it the way it is supposed to be enjoyed on my wrist. Hope everybody has a great weekend.

[dysondiver]

ah ,,, your all so wrong ,,, invest in the seeking profit watch ,,, they are rare , especially the gold one ,,, after all there is only one of those ,,, and to quote a nearly reliable source ,,, i doubt any of you will ever see it ,,, so there you go , only 123 of them ,,,
joking aside ,,,, buy what you will wear , enjoy what you buy ,,, worry not about future values , by the time that todays watches are worth more than we paid , i doubt we wont be looking at them.

[fullcourt]

wear them and enjoy....

[Casio]

Just enjoy your watch. It shouldn't be a big deal how much it is going to be worth in the future. If it is a big deal, then you might not be able to afford it. When I buy a watch, in my mind it's worth goes to zero as soon as I peel the stickers.

If you look around, fewer and fewer people are wearing watches, so it is unlikely that it will go up like the last decade. Also, part of the reason for the increases was because Rolex was trying to position Rolex so that when Tudor re-entered the market, they would not compete against each other price wise. This is similar to Toyota/Lexus. Tudor is already back in the market, so I think all of the big Rolex increases are done.

[venno]

Very interesting read and I really appreciate the time Rashid.bk put into his post. I enjoy my watch every time I put it on and I do wonder about appreciation but its definitely no the driving force behind my watch purchases.

[springer]

Originally Posted by NukeMan

Hi all! Having tried to find information on how many watches Rolex produces a year I've found a few different numbers on-line of which none are official as Rolex does not publish this number, to the best of my knowledge. Speculations on-line seem to be in the range of 0,7-1.1 million watches/year. Comparing these numbers with annual production numbers back in, say, the late 60's indicate that there has been an explosion of production. Knowing a bit about the general mechanics of demand and supply and the obvious link between rareness and second hand prices (in addition to ceramic bezels and modern luminova inserts not fading, which means that these watches will probably look pretty much the same in 20+ years besides wear) the production numbers have me concerned about the future value of today's modern Rolexes. Buying a watch for big bucks I want them to retain good value at least for my children.

What are your thoughts? Any info on the current production numbers and how they are distributed between sports models and "the rest"; steel vs precious metals? What do you think of the future vintage value of today's watches? Are new watches at all worth buying out of a collector's perspective?

Any future value will probably be from inflation - at least in my lifetime. Pick one up and enjoy it 'till then.

[ch042757]

Buy the watch for your enjoyment and not for investment.