Rolex Sea Dweller 50th Anniversary Guidance Please

[sasansgh]

Hi All,

I am thinking to buy my first Rolex watch. So not much experience with luxury watches tbh.

I initially wanted to get a sub date, but then after seeing the new sea dweller 50th anniversary, I just fell in love with this watch!
As you know already for sure, it is absolutely impossible to purchase it from a official dealer without spending £15k on not-so-desired Rolex watches to just get on to the waiting list!

So I have decided to purchase it from grey market. Now, here are my questions:
I know it is difficult to say, but from your experiences (maybe from other models), do you think the grey market value of the watch will drop to a more reasonable value in the next year (or few years)?
Should i be worried about warranty? What should I have in mind to make the chances of warranty being accepted by Rolex higher (e.g. Uk reg watch etc.)?
Finally any tips on buying watch from the grey market that a beginner should know?

Im not planning to buy from a private seller, so most likely from trusted seller from chrono24 with positive reviews. how has your experience been with chrono24?

Thanks

[Rashid.bk]

A amazing watch, one of the best in the modern Rolex line. I don't think another watch has such beautiful proportions. Congratulations.
Points to consider...
There are two dials same exact everything just a coronet at the six, research this to be informed on preference.
Prices will likely hold for the next year or so.
If you elect a very trusted seller with a solid reputation there shouldn't be any issues.
The warranty follows the watch, buy a full set with all box and papers to include warranty card.
A local reputable private seller may also be considered, especially for face to face deals at a mutually beneficial location, AD for example.

Good luck and welcome to TRF.

[Rocket launcher]

Try and get the one without the coronet at the six of clock position.as this may be recognised as the First edition ..see the difference a flat 4 makes on a kermits may be the same with the none coronet (crown) in the future.

[rambo99]

Originally Posted by Rocket launcher

Try and get the one without the coronet at the six of clock position.as this may be recognised as the First edition ..see the difference a flat 4 makes on a kermits may be the same with the none coronet (crown) in the future.

check the chrono sd43 mark I price, there has been no increase since the introduction of the mark ii dial. people just speculate on it. in fact buying the mark ii dial from a grey dealer is much safer, it almost guarantee that the watch is authentic, right?

[Chadridv]

Originally Posted by rambo99

check the chrono sd43 mark I price, there has been no increase since the introduction of the mark ii dial. people just speculate on it. in fact buying the mark ii dial from a grey dealer is much safer, it almost guarantee that the watch is authentic, right?

I agree that it's only speculation at this point, but along the same notion, just because the price hasn't increased yet, doesn't mean it won't in the next 2,3,5 or 10 years. There also have not been a ton of "mark II" sightings yet. There have only been a couple here on TRF and a few more on IG.

I think we'll have a better grasp on what the market will look like as more and more Mark 2s become prevalent.

[sasansgh]

Thank you all for the very helpful responses.

I do not have an issue with waiting for another 1 or 2 years, but my concerns are:

firstly, it seems that 1 or 2 years is not enough to get a sea dweller through the ADs. I know this, because I have contacted more than 25 dealers across Europe plus more in the UK. In the best case, they just say you must spend £15k+ to get on the list so you MIGHT get the watch in one year time! I know the whole economy may have another crash similar to 2010 but who knows.

Secondly, one of the things I like about the watch is the red Sea Dweller text on the watch. There are speculations that Rolex may change it back to white in near future. So Im worried that is going to make it even more expensive to get one of the anniversary models.

[Enoch]

You should reconsider buying privately.

I sold this one yesterday to a chap on here for well under £10k and I drove 240 miles each way to deliver it by hand. He was delighted

[katch]

I’m new to this site and I have yet to purchase a Rolex, but for me this is a bit different than investing. I generally don’t “fall in love” with a stock, an index fund or investment property. When the time is right for me to purchase a luxury item, the purchase will be because I love the piece and it will give me great enjoyment when I wear it. Nobody can predict the 10-20% price move within the next few years. It certainly can decrease in price. That is a possibility. Would the 20% savings off current price be worth missing a few years of enjoyment of wearing your watch? You say you have no problem waiting 1 or 2 years for your watch. If that’s the case, you might as well get it from an AD at MSRP in 1, 2, 3 or 4 years.

When the decision is made to purchase my watch, it will be because I have accounted for a number of other financial obligations in my life. I won’t be a watch trader. If I cannot purchase from an AD, I would go to a trusted seller and get it in a condition that I am satisfied with for my own personal enjoyment.

[rambo99]

Originally Posted by katch

I’m new to this site and I have yet to purchase a Rolex, but for me this is a bit different than investing. I generally don’t “fall in love” with a stock, an index fund or investment property. When the time is right for me to purchase a luxury item, the purchase will be because I love the piece and it will give me great enjoyment when I wear it. Nobody can predict the 10-20% price move within the next few years. It certainly can decrease in price. That is a possibility. Would the 20% savings off current price be worth missing a few years of enjoyment of wearing your watch? You say you have no problem waiting 1 or 2 years for your watch. If that’s the case, you might as well get it from an AD at MSRP in 1, 2, 3 or 4 years.

When the decision is made to purchase my watch, it will be because I have accounted for a number of other financial obligations in my life. I won’t be a watch trader. If I cannot purchase from an AD, I would go to a trusted seller and get it in a condition that I am satisfied with for my own personal enjoyment.

I dont think they will remove the red line any time soon. as long as it sells well as is now, they will just keep it. you can take your time, and take advantage of the coming stock market crash.

[coralfarmer84]

I doubt they ever change the text. If you shop around you can find one for pretty close to msrp on the forum. ( a few are only about $1000 usd over msrp). If you really like it and are sure you can’t get one at msrp why wait a year or two. Prices could always go up or down, life is short

[Bobby T]

Originally Posted by coralfarmer84

I doubt they ever change the text. If you shop around you can find one for pretty close to msrp on the forum. ( a few are only about $1000 usd over msrp). If you really like it and are sure you can’t get one at msrp why wait a year or two. Prices could always go up or down, life is short

They've change the text and color of the text a number of times during the production of the SD and Sub.........why would you doubt that at some point in the future they won't again?? As far as finding some close to MSRP, MSRP is $11,3000......you can't find a pre-owned one for that price.......

[accountank2000]

Originally Posted by sasansgh

I know it is difficult to say, but from your experiences (maybe from other models), do you think the grey market value of the watch will drop to a more reasonable value in the next year (or few years)?

You're right, it's difficult/ impossible to say over the next year.

But once you get to 'few years' then yes the premium of grey over AD pretty much has to drop. They won't stay at a huge percent premium indefinitely. The market moves in cycles, just like the stock market. Sometimes certain pieces (or luxury goods like Rolexes generally) are in favour and sometimes they are not.

At the moment, everyone wants more (e.g.) seadwellers and stainless Daytonas than are available in the ADs. Other times it might be a different model. Back in 2009/10 when the stock market was at rock bottom, the dealers had plenty of subs, seadwellers, daytonas etc on their shelves and would sell to you at a discount without a wait. My Seadweller (16600, the model before last) was bought 'new' in 2010 even though they stopped production in 2008 - customers weren't interested in buying a 'more expensive submariner' and they just sat unsold on the shelves. A bank goes busts, layoffs in the financial sector, City bonuses cut - that's a lot of demand taken out of the luxury watch market.

At the moment, stock markets have been going up for nine years and borrowing is cheap, so people have big money to get a nice watch and avoid the waitlist by using a grey dealer. That will not always be the case.

Another factor to overlay on "how much money is sloshing around the economy looking to buy a rolex" is currency exchange rates. At the moment if the global grey market price (ignoring local demand specifics and tax factors) to "buy me now" on a particular watch is USD 13k or EUR 11k, that's GBP 10k. However, if the pound strengthens against the other two without the "global price' changing, the watch might be going for USD 13k, EUR 11k, but only GBP £8k. Sterling weakened significantly in 2016 on Brexit uncertainly and we don't know in what direction it will get resolved next year or the following few years.

If you're looking at the price or maintainable value of anything with a global market, you have to take into account currency risk. As an example, over the last 11 years the largest 'peak to trough' fall in the FTSE All-World stock market index (including dividends reinvested) was 58% in USD terms. But the dollar went from $2:£1 to $1.40:£1 at the same time (mid 2007 to early 2009), so in the UK we saw the drop as only about a 40% loss.

So basically if you are considering potential future resale of a grey SD43, you have:

- popularity of that particular model driving the premium people will pay for instant access vs dealer experience (if any)

- demand for Rolex generally and how they set their prices for that model or its rivals and how willing the ADs will be to discount (if at all)

- demand for mechanical watches generally

- demand for luxury goods generally

- strength or weakness of sterling vs global basket of currencies

- other local factors

Im not planning to buy from a private seller, so most likely from trusted seller from chrono24 with positive reviews. how has your experience been with chrono24?

The site is good to get sense check of pricing for particular models but like with any online marketplace, the dealers can be a mixed bag.

Look up the individual dealer's website (which may have better pics of the watch), find their actual storefront on Google Streetview etc. A note that they have a couple of recommendations from other Chrono24 dealers (who might be dodgy themselves) is not a lot of comfort when there will be hundreds of jewellers or watch stores on the site which can say the same.

If you are buying a watch priced in a foreign currency and want to use the 'trusted checkout' facility, Chrono24 will convert it to a fixed GBP price which you pay. This won't be the same as the headline price converted at the mid-market spot rate from a bank; they will load the FX rate in their favour.

As an example I bought a Tudor from a Netherlands dealer and was expecting to use my 'no FX loading on foreign transactions' credit card to pay the Euro price at a decent exchange rate, but for a UK customer the Trusted Checkout makes you pay Chrono24 in pounds sterling at a cost of a couple of percent. You can choose to pay the dealer direct, but then you lose the TC protection and the dealer might have their own fees to pay them (e.g. credit card fees, PayPal fees) if you don't want to transfer euros directly into their bank account (which might be costly for you and gives the worst level of consumer protection).

Also if buying from outside EU, make sure you account for the punitive import duties and VAT on getting it shipped to UK.

One relatively expensive dealer you could try if you're in the UK is Watchfinder. At the moment they are showing two 126600 seadwellers, both at £11950. One is a 2017 with box and papers, the other is a 2018 with papers but no box. The UK list price including VAT is only £8350 so they're after a 40%+ premium.... Personally I think that's too high but only you can tell if it is worth an extra £3-4k to get the watch now rather than waiting for the market to calm down or the dealer to get one in.

The advantage of Watchfinder is they are a big business with good levels of stock and you can go into their stores in major UK cities and try it on, and convince yourself you definitely want that model, and then decide whether you actually want to buy that particular watch there and then, or not. Whereas buying it for a few hundred pounds less off a Chrono24 dealer in Eastern Europe, is more of a leap of faith, unless you want to give up a weekend to fly to take a look on their physical store. This is not meant to be a plug for Watchfinder specifically, just something to consider. I used them once and found them good, but they were pricey then and they still are.

*Edit: I would agree not to disregard the idea of buying from individual private sellers on forums like this or WUS etc. Someone with hundreds or thousands of posts over several years is at least likely to be an enthusiast, and is going to get called out at some point if he's selling bad watches or treating customers or others sellers badly.

Whereas on somewhere like Chrono24 you might appear to be be dealing with a big company with a 5* rating, and then you look up their address and details on Companies House and it's some 20 year old kid who formed the company last year in his studio flat and his 20 five star reviews are all no comment reviews or one-liners written in broken English by his buddies.

[Brian Page]

If you go grey you will pay a bit of a premium but nothing like a Daytona or the new BLRO. Go for it.

[rambo99]

grey market price of the sd43 has started to drop, amid other models like hulk, batman and daytona are still rising.people believing the mark i dial scarcity had better try to get one now.

[samson66]

Grey prices may drop SLIGHTLY but I think it will be a long time before they get down to MSRP or lower. If you want it, get it from a grey. I did. When you factor in sales tax it was a very small premium to pay to get the watch I wanted when I wanted it and not have to play the AD games. The premium is not that high so I don't see it as a big deal personally.