How many vintage collectors have virtually stopped buying because of the push in $?

[harry in montreal]

I use daily to fight off urges to buy at least one Tudor or Rolex on eBay per month. I have not bought anything in about 18 months. Well, one minisub I suppose. That’s it. Am I alone ?

[linesiders]

Yes, still buying ; )

It is getting harder though

[lee fowler]

Originally Posted by linesiders

Yes, still buying ; )

It is getting harder though

This.

[lhanddds]

Know just what you mean Harry. We don’t really like to refer to a collection as an investment but, then again, if there is some sort of market correction, we don’t want to see some sort of crazy collapse in values either. I picked up a significant number of vintage pieces in 08 and 09. I remember what happened then.


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[BlackOnyx]

When I started some 3.5 years ago I paid EUR 6.250 for a matt dial 5513. It was sooooo much money. Imagine where we are now. The same watch, which I still have is now worth at least 10K.

For me the hunt is always nice. Last year I found a real cool Air-king blue dial, full set for a real good price. My last catch was an awesome day-date. Vintage Day-dates are just waiting to really go up in price. That's the fun of the game, trying to buy something low (and which you love!!!)

[Dr.Smellody]

I haven't stopped... but slowed way down... I've gone from 16 Rolex to a more refined six Rolex collection that get worn.

If prices ever fall (or stock market) I have several that I'll aquire.

[Richard Carver]

Originally Posted by Dr.Smellody

I haven't stopped... but slowed way down... I've gone from 16 Rolex to a more refined six Rolex collection that get worn.

If prices ever fall (or stock market) I have several that I'll acquire.

I think I'm headed that direction. I last sold a watch in 2008 and bought my last one in 2015. I actually have watches I haven't seen in three years. It's past time to bring this house to order. Six sounds so good!

[1665fan]

Still buying, it might be a disease lol. But pickier than ever for sure

[Rvltn123]

I've been eyeing a red subs for nearly 10 years and after seeing the prices sky rocket these past several years I finally pulled the trigger. Sure... wished I purchased when they were "only" $6-9k USD. Don't think I will be a collector with prices the way they are these days. :-)

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[fusionstorm]

I'm always looking, but am not currently "hunting". Prices keep moving to never before seen levels. Should a major global financial meltdown happen, I doubt we'll ever see prices fall to Great Recession levels ever again. Too many vintage collectors and dealers "keeping their powder dry" and ready to pounce should prices take a tumble and the supply of available nice condition vintage increase (don't hold your breath)...........

[Gina Marie]

I think our Canadian friend up north is commenting on the dollar strength and not the prices of vintage. I agree the dollar mvmt makes it harder for intl to buy. Makes it easier for me to go to canada and shop though.

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[springer]

I'm still buying nice examples but they are definitely getting harder to find. I found two nice vintage GMTs a couple weeks ago from a forum member and grabbed them both - one was a 1675 and the other was a 16750.

[harry in montreal]

Gina, I wasn’t really thinking about FX. Our cdn$ was lower in 2007 than it is today. It’s just the price level of everything. Even undesirable Tudor models seem to be priced at $2k and 3k. I have a nice collection, and I consider myself to be very fort7nate. Should a big correction to the mkt occur I will still be okay.

[Gina Marie]

Oh, sorry....thought you were talking about FX. My bad.

Yes, prices are up. In a big way. Items are trading stronger than ever. A 16528 sold for 75k recently, and I dont even think it was NOS. Perhaps NNOS or KLNOS (near or kinda like). The community is getting larger every day but the supply is limited. We all know that during times of crisis liquidity is key and these have liquidity to a certain extent......

I dont see a crisis in the near term so I would assume a + or - movement of 5 or so % in the next 12 months.

As rates rise, other investments begin to look more attractive and will drain money from collectables. Fact of life. Apple watches are far more toxic I think, but what do I know.

I look at classic cars as an example. Who is going to want them when electric cars far out perform and do so at a fraction of the damage to the environment. I think either they lose value like coke memorabilia or a cottage industry pops up to convert them to electric.

I saw a guy with an apple watch on one wrist and a watch on the other. Hopefully that is where we are going and classic watches become like art, timeless!

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[springer]

Originally Posted by Gina Marie

Oh, sorry....thought you were talking about FX. My bad.

Yes, prices are up. In a big way. Items are trading stronger than ever. A 16528 sold for 75k recently, and I dont even think it was NOS. Perhaps NNOS or KLNOS (near or kinda like). The community is getting larger every day but the supply is limited. We all know that during times of crisis liquidity is key and these have liquidity to a certain extent......

I dont see a crisis in the near term so I would assume a + or - movement of 5 or so % in the next 12 months.

As rates rise, other investments begin to look more attractive and will drain money from collectables. Fact of life. Apple watches are far more toxic I think, but what do I know.

I look at classic cars as an example. Who is going to want them when electric cars far out perform and do so at a fraction of the damage to the environment. I think either they lose value like coke memorabilia or a cottage industry pops up to convert them to electric.

I saw a guy with an apple watch on one wrist and a watch on the other. Hopefully that is where we are going and classic watches become like art, timeless!

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Electric cars are nice for commuting but good like taking one on a long trip. If I need a 0-60 performer, it won't be an electric.

[swish77]

Originally Posted by Gina Marie

I look at classic cars as an example. Who is going to want them when electric cars far out perform and do so at a fraction of the damage to the environment. I think either they lose value like coke memorabilia or a cottage industry pops up to convert them to electric.

I saw a guy with an apple watch on one wrist and a watch on the other. Hopefully that is where we are going and classic watches become like art, timeless!

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Many classic cars are also art and timeless. Who's going to want them over electric cars? Many guys, including me. It's like asking why wear a 6263 Big Red when you can just get the time off of your iPhone?

[motoikkyu]

The rise in prices is staggering. It gives me terrible mixed emotions. On one hand, it would be financially responsible to sell everything I have acquired and invest the cash. On the other hand, there is a certain satisfaction in wearing a watch that is worth four times as much as you paid for it. If there's a third hand, it's harder to wear said watch and risk scratching it, now that it's become so valuable. Conclusion: rising vintage Rolex prices can cause mental decline.

[roh123]

Personally I don’t buy as much anymore. Price increase is one parameter and exchange rates another. My local money is nowdays kind of soft which makes it a good time to sell off stuff I feel is overpriced in general. Other than that things work as always for me as a collector. I consolidate and move up in quality/rarity if there is something I like. If not; I stay put. People dealing can’t stop buying just because prices sky rocket so I understand that some still buy. Who knows where we will end up..

Regardless if the market moves up or down me as a collector kind of hates todays levels. Every purchase becomes so important when watches costs more than a very nice car. I prefered how it was some years ago when you could still play around and try more watches. Current levels also makes the market slow and small when few people sell great watches as they expect them to appreciate even further.

[SubKing]

I think its safe to say prices are way up and harder to buy for sure!

https://www.lunaroyster.com/watches/...perfect-patina

[exador]

Originally Posted by SubKing

I think its safe to say prices are way up and harder to buy for sure!

https://www.lunaroyster.com/watches/...perfect-patina

Peak madness.

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by SubKing

I think its safe to say prices are way up and harder to buy for sure!

https://www.lunaroyster.com/watches/...perfect-patina

45 grand is optimistic pricing for a MK IV FF Red Sub. Asking price and selling price often differ, but it's a hot market. Good luck to buyer and seller.

[roh123]

Originally Posted by zapokee

45 grand is optimistic pricing for a MK IV FF Red Sub. Asking price and selling price often differ, but it's a hot market. Good luck to buyer and seller.

Dealers just push prices up when they can sell. This example is indeed very nice but pricing can't go on forever. Red subs are the typical newbie premium vintage Rolex. For around 50k there are a lot more to be had other than matte subs from the 70's.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by zapokee

45 grand is optimistic pricing for a MK IV FF Red Sub. Asking price and selling price often differ, but it's a hot market. Good luck to buyer and seller.

2 years ago I would say so, but today for a mint b&p red 1680 FF, anything is possible. You sure don't see them come up for sale in that condition everyday. That set is for a collector and not for a daily wearer IMO.

[zapokee]

Originally Posted by SubKing

[Originally Posted by zapokee]
45 grand is optimistic pricing for a MK IV FF Red Sub. Asking price and selling price often differ, but it's a hot market. Good luck to buyer and seller.]

2 years ago I would say so, but today for a mint b&p red 1680 FF, anything is possible. You sure don't see them come up for sale in that condition everyday. That set is for a collector and not for a daily wearer IMO.

You're absolutely right - with full B&P, the price would be higher than normal. This doesn't seem to have B&P, though - just a piece of paper. For me, it would need all the original box, papers, receipts, anchor, tags and whatnot to be a collector set even close to 45 K.

The seller is a stand-up guy, though, in my experience. We've all gotta eat... Somone will probably buy it and make a mint by selling it on in a few years.

Happy to be proved wrong, as I have a very similar piece in the collection.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by zapokee

You're absolutely right - with full B&P, the price would be higher than normal. This doesn't seem to have B&P, though - just a piece of paper. For me, it would need all the original box, papers, receipts, anchor, tags and whatnot to be a collector set even close to 45 K.

The seller is a stand-up guy, though, in my experience. We've all gotta eat... Somone will probably buy it and make a mint by selling it on in a few years.

Happy to be proved wrong, as I have a very similar piece in the collection.

I get what you're saying and agree. However, condition and papers are most important, the box and accessories can all be sourced overtime to make it a full set. A collector who has the time will do it for sure. when that piece sells, it will most likely resurface one day as a full set

[Jp28]

I was lucky to buy my 3 before prices went crazy. Certainly could not afford them now, or rather would not pay the relevant amount for them. Given where prices are may even cash out my DRSD as it is not getting worn and then there are some amazing pieces I could buy with the money, even after taking some cash from the table.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by Jp28

I was lucky to buy my 3 before prices went crazy. Certainly could not afford them now, or rather would not pay the relevant amount for them. Given where prices are may even cash out my DRSD as it is not getting worn and then there are some amazing pieces I could buy with the money, even after taking some cash from the table.

when you let your DRSD go, just keep in mind what you will have to pay for it if you ever want it back... You may even have to settle for a worse condition example due to the dry market.

I personally would hold on to it.

[zapokee]

My buying has certainly slowed, but this is also because I was lucky enough to more or less complete the collection of stuff I really wanted before prices got silly.

I'm enjoying the lower end of the market now - "undesirable" stuff like 34 mm Tudor and Rolex still offers fantastic value and has plenty of room for price increase (was happy to see Eric Ku make this point on the Hodinkee podcast). Remember when PNs were undesirable?

Vintage Day-Dates still offer great value. They've barely moved in price for years, and are ripe for an increase as people get priced out of the market on Rolex sports models.

[05carbondrz]

Originally Posted by SubKing

when you let your DRSD go, just keep in mind what you will have to pay for it if you ever want it back... You may even have to settle for a worse condition example due to the dry market.

I personally would hold on to it.

When I sell a Watch I’m done with it.I’m never going to aspire to own something I sold off.There are so many great References out there that it makes no sense to track down something you sold IMHO.

[SubKing]

Originally Posted by 05carbondrz

When I sell a Watch I’m done with it.I’m never going to aspire to own something I sold off.There are so many great References out there that it makes no sense to track down something you sold IMHO.

Over the years, I always missed certain pieces that I sold. So I owned them multiple times. I thought I was done with them and a couple years passed and I missed them immensely. Some pieces I wanted but there were flaws that bothered me on certain pieces, so I sold them with hopes of finding better examples..

Money also has a lot to do with it. Some people might not be crazy about letting a piece go but they want to cash out at “the right time”.

For some ppl, this problem exists in this hobby and for others, it does not.

I personally think, if you’re a millionaire, you might not worry so much about market value fluctuations on these pieces. You just buy what you like and never need to liquidate to either raise money for a different watch or out of fear the market will collapse. You just keep buying. Even if there are pieces that don’t get any wrist time, you might refer to it later. That’s my 2 cents.

For me, because I’m not a millionaire, I am really never done with any watch I have sold off over the years.

I have made certain moves over the years that allowed me to get my collection to where it is today. There are still many pieces I would love to own, but I feel lucky I own multiple grails.

I don’t think anyone is really ever done with a watch. Once the piece is gone, I typically start to think about what made me fall in love with the watch in the first place. Especially if it were a DRSD I sold. Could never fall out of love with that one.