The real reason for Rolex scarcity

[Seibei]

Just read this article and all will become clear:

https://www.theguardian.com/business...richest-people

To put it simply there are more rich people in the world than ever before, their numbers are increasing and Rolex is not increasing production.

From the article:

"The bank’s annual wealth survey found there were 100 million Chinese people among the world’s top 10% of richest people, compared with 99 million in the US."

The number of wealthy people in China is increasing at a rapid rate. If 10% of these 100 million rich Chinese want a Rolex, they need 10 million Rolex watches. Rolex makes 800.000 watches a year. Many of these are not that hot/desirable. You can do the math...

So, there is no grand conspiracy. There is no organization hoovering up Rolex watches, cornering the market and pumping up prices. There are simply more people than ever able to buy a Rolex watch and demand is far ahead of supply.

Unless Rolex ramps up production by an order of magnitude this situation is unlikely to change. There is no reason to expect the number of wealthy people will decrease.

Conclusion. If you want a Rolex watch buy it now. It is not going to become any cheaper or easier to get in the foreseeable future.

[6120]

That sounds logical and the most sensible explanation I have heard yet.

[Bluside]

Interesting. Boy, I need to invent the next must have thing for rich people. Any ideas?

[DoctorA]

Originally Posted by Bluside

Interesting. Boy, I need to invent the next must have thing for rich people. Any ideas?

With that many rich people, since we can’t easily get all the watches we want, maybe go into the watch box business for all the rich people to collect their watches in

[kieselguhr]

Thank you for sharing OP. Many of the forum members have been aware of this for a while now. There will still be forum members who insist that there is a conspiracy going on and that Rolex, their ADs, and the gray markets are plotting against them.

[djgallo]

I agree with the OP 110% .....you nailed it!

To make matters worse and in addition....all of the other developing countries are increasing in wealth too....

[strafer_kid]

Originally Posted by djgallo

I agree with the OP 110% .....you nailed it!

To make matters worse and in addition....all of the other developing countries are increasing in wealth too....

Really? So if other developing countries are getting wealthier, that is making things worse for us because we cannot get watches?

[ChipotleBanana]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Thank you for sharing OP. Many of the forum members have been aware of this for a while now. There will still be forum members who insist that there is a conspiracy going on and that Rolex, their ADs, and the gray markets are plotting against them.

Everyone on this forum who thinks a conspiracy is occurring has never purchased a watch before. Anyone who has been buying watches for a while will be more than happy with the current market. I swear half the people on this forum aren't real.

[locutus49]

The Russian troll farm has decided to sow dissension among Rolex forum members.

Originally Posted by ChipotleBanana

Everyone on this forum who thinks a conspiracy is occurring has never purchased a watch before. Anyone who has been buying watches for a while will be more than happy with the current market. I swear half the people on this forum aren't real.

[2001jesper]

The change happened over a few months and hype has definitely been a driver for scarcity. I firmly believe that its a fad, and once the "rich and the famous" (trend-setters) move on to the next accessory, stock will once again become available. My best guess is 5 years? Dont believe that the current hype is sustainable on the long term

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by 2001jesper

The change happened over a few months and hype has definitely been a driver for scarcity. I firmly believe that its a fad, and once the "rich and the famous" (trend-setters) move on to the next accessory, stock will once again become available. My best guess is 5 years? Dont believe that the current hype is sustainable on the long term

The change happened over a few months?......Really.........:banghead

[uniqueMR]

Thanks for sharing!

[bigfatpauli]

I've been saying this for years. Everyone just keeps saying "supply has been cut".

Sigh...

[Wahlberg]

So why isn't this happening with other brands (Omega/VC/AP/Patek/...) or in other industries (cars, real estate, ...)?

I know they have been buying a lot of real estate in California, other parts of the US, Canada and such but if there are so many millionaires you should see the current effect x 2-3-4-5 times? It still seems reasonable what's going on.

And why aren't they buying Porsches/Ferrari's like crazy? Or other luxury items? Seems like these brands aren't dealing with these problems.

I truly can't imagine every Chinese millionaire desires a pepsi or hulk when they can easily spend 100k on 1 watch and buy several more. And why are all the Daytona's and BLNR sitting at 13-25k if they can easily spend and buy one at a grey?

[Manu74]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

So why isn't this happening with other brands (Omega/VC/AP/Patek/...) or in other industries (cars, real estate, ...)?

I know they have been buying a lot of real estate in California, other parts of the US, Canada and such but if there are so many millionaires you should see the current effect x 2-3-4-5 times? It still seems reasonable what's going on.

And why aren't they buying Porsches/Ferrari's like crazy? Or other luxury items? Seems like these brands aren't dealing with these problems.

I truly can't imagine every Chinese millionaire desires a pepsi or hulk when they can easily spend 100k on 1 watch and buy several more. And why are all the Daytona's and BLNR sitting at 13-25k if they can easily spend and buy one at a grey?

Because of superior marketing and social media, the majority loves Rolex the most.

[Jerrocop]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

So why isn't this happening with other brands (Omega/VC/AP/Patek/...) or in other industries (cars, real estate, ...)?

I know they have been buying a lot of real estate in California, other parts of the US, Canada and such but if there are so many millionaires you should see the current effect x 2-3-4-5 times? It still seems reasonable what's going on.

And why aren't they buying Porsches/Ferrari's like crazy? Or other luxury items? Seems like these brands aren't dealing with these problems.

I truly can't imagine every Chinese millionaire desires a pepsi or hulk when they can easily spend 100k on 1 watch and buy several more. And why are all the Daytona's and BLNR sitting at 13-25k if they can easily spend and buy one at a grey?

Agreed. Though the OP's simple calculations are correct, the reason for the shortage is as correct or incorrect as anyone else that's throwing thier ideas out there. Pure speculation.

[djgallo]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

So why isn't this happening with other brands (Omega/VC/AP/Patek/...)

Why isn’t it happening with other brands.....easy

Omega/VC/AP/Patek.....98% of most people never heard of them

Rolex.....99% of most people know the BRAND

[amanbra]

Originally Posted by djgallo

Why isn’t it happening with other brands.....easy

Omega/VC/AP/Patek.....98% of most people never heard of them

Rolex.....99% of most people know the BRAND

You'd say Omega is at like i don't know... 50% brand recognition based on your scale? still far behind Rolex but thanks to Mr Bond and the Olympics the general public know about them.

[amanbra]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

So why isn't this happening with other brands (Omega/VC/AP/Patek/...) or in other industries (cars, real estate, ...)?

The thing is with the Chinese market they have a tendancy to fixate on a brand or two. With watches Rolex is king right in terms of brand recognition so they smashed it.

You should see what some of the top car brands are doing to try and get a base in China.

Chinese have really moved the real estate market in Sydney, Melbourne and Vancouver until legislation was put in.

[ganagati]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

So why isn't this happening with other brands (Omega/VC/AP/Patek/...) or in other industries (cars, real estate, ...)?

Have you looked at Nautilus/Aquanaut prices? The same is happening to AP and Patek.

[exador]

Sorry OP, I'm also not buying it.

1. You don't need to be rich to buy a Rolex. In fact the whole ethos of the brand is affordable luxury.
2. Rich people don't flip watches for a couple of grand profit. Yet flippers are plaguing our hobby.
3. There are supposedly 27,000 less millionaires in the UK now due to Brexit. Doesn't seem to harmed watch sales there (see below).

The "scarcity" is being driven by hype, social media, cheap money and the mistaken belief that Rolex prices will never come down.

[locutus49]

Exactly. Chinese are not stupid. They know what the best luxury watches are and they want them, as do Indians and people from other recently developed countries. No conspiracy, just supply can't meet demand.

So all you people who are whining that you can't buy the watch you want yet your signature block contains several highly coveted Rolexes; well maybe the world will stop for you, and maybe it won't.

Originally Posted by ganagati

Have you looked at Nautilus/Aquanaut prices? The same is happening to AP and Patek.

[LDN]

Not buying it! There are even more rich folks on this planer beside Chinese and Americans!

[SL BRABUS]

I go with the opposites......

It the FAKE RICH......

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by ganagati

Have you looked at Nautilus/Aquanaut prices? The same is happening to AP and Patek.

Besides those few popular models. There are a lot that aren't picked up even though they are definitely worth it.

Every time some model gets discontinued (the one with the leather strap or whatever the model was) or the rumor goes around people suddenly need to have it. If they are so rich, why didn't they pick it up sooner?

[kaiserphoenix]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

So why isn't this happening with other brands (Omega/VC/AP/Patek/...) or in other industries (cars, real estate, ...)?

I know they have been buying a lot of real estate in California, other parts of the US, Canada and such but if there are so many millionaires you should see the current effect x 2-3-4-5 times? It still seems reasonable what's going on.

And why aren't they buying Porsches/Ferrari's like crazy? Or other luxury items? Seems like these brands aren't dealing with these problems.

I truly can't imagine every Chinese millionaire desires a pepsi or hulk when they can easily spend 100k on 1 watch and buy several more. And why are all the Daytona's and BLNR sitting at 13-25k if they can easily spend and buy one at a grey?

They ARE buying porsche and ferrari’s like crazy. You think u can just walk in to a dealership and purchase a “real” ferrari or porsche? no man, u gotta get in line, waiting lists, previous purchase all this BS is equally present in porsche and ferrari’s too!!!

[vicsdca]

"Personal savings of $109,430 (£83,630) are required to be part of the top 10% of the world’s richest people."

It means you can actually be part of the top 10% of the world’s richest people without being rich at all...


Besides, there are only 4.4 million Chinese millionaires compared to 18.6 million American millionaires according to the article. The number of "wealthy" people in China is still relatively low.

Many Rolex buyers are living above their means, probably more than ever. It's just a fad, not the new normal.

[Jona]

Originally Posted by vicsdca

"Personal savings of $109,430 (£83,630) are required to be part of the top 10% of the world’s richest people."

It means you can actually be part of the top 10% of the world’s richest people without being rich at all...

I didn't know I was rich but I am sure glad I am.

[Paul7]

Originally Posted by vicsdca

"Personal savings of $109,430 (£83,630) are required to be part of the top 10% of the world’s richest people."

It means you can actually be part of the top 10% of the world’s richest people without being rich at all...


Besides, there are only 4.4 million Chinese millionaires compared to 18.6 million American millionaires according to the article. The number of "wealthy" people in China is still relatively low.

Many Rolex buyers are living above their means, probably more than ever. It's just a fad, not the new normal.

I can see a Chinese person with $109K in savings buying a Rolex, given that culture's emphasis on status and 'face'.

[173rdabn]

Who knew?