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SDR581 · 1 October 2021, 03:55 AM

Just wondering how all this stuff with Evergrande and the Chinese economy is going to affect Rolex availability... if at all. For us folks here in the West (USA and Europe).

Do you think there will be an overall slow down in luxury spending?

Just curious.

beshannon · 1 October 2021, 03:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDR581

Do you think there will be an overall slow down in luxury spending?

No

HelloMelo · 1 October 2021, 04:00 AM

let me see what my crystal ball says

Snerks · 1 October 2021, 04:05 AM

The US stock market is still trading at ATH from just a few months ago. Its gonna take a lot more than a 5% pull back, lol.

SWS65SM · 1 October 2021, 04:16 AM

Sure, it is the second largest builder in the world, and its collapse is wiping out the equity investors and will probably have some contagion effects to the regional high yield bond market, but it is not going to become a systemic bomb to drag down that entire country's economy like what Lehman triggered in the US and the rest of the world 14 years ago. The chances of this having enough impact to move the needle of Rolex availability out west (or world wide) is miniscule to none, wishful thinking

TimepieceRPP · 1 October 2021, 04:06 AM

I guess it is now not the Chinese economy anymore as they are slowing down a lot.
I guess it is the social media and the younger generation.

doboy007 · 1 October 2021, 04:14 AM

Hope so but not holding my breath.

macrowatch · 1 October 2021, 05:17 AM

Nope. Chinese can and are effectively nationalizing the assets.

No SS Daytona on shelf anytime soon.

SDR581 · 1 October 2021, 05:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Nope. Chinese can and are effectively nationalizing the assets.

No SS Daytona on shelf anytime soon.

Bummer. Wasn't hoping to anything extravagant.

Just want a TT Blusey to call my own.

macrowatch · 1 October 2021, 06:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SDR581

Bummer. Wasn't hoping to anything extravagant.

Just want a TT Blusey to call my own.

A polite smile and winning personality will probably get that done for you on that model. No need to give up hope!

Robf52 · 1 October 2021, 06:38 AM

I think it's going to take a long, painful equity bear market to crush watch demand.

teck21 · 1 October 2021, 10:03 AM

I’m the short run, maybe. If there’s enough fear to cause a complete loss of confidence. I think they have it under control though.

Evergrande’s ( and the other property developers) debt issues were never an unknown unknown.

In the longer run though, the fact remains that China is still poorly urbanised compared to the developed countries (ie still dirt poor in many regions).

The link between urbanisation and disposable income is of course not in question.

Also not in question is the hundreds of millions more who will urbanize in the decades to come and join the ranks of middle and upper middle income class.

India, Indonesia, Vietnam and many other countries have barely even started.

If you want a Rolex at msrp, your best bet is to hope that the people of all these countries stay poor forever.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

1 October 2021, 03:55 AM	#1
SDR581 "TRF" Member Join Date: Jan 2020 Location: MontCo County, PA Watch: BLNR 116610LN DJ41 Posts: 299	Evergrande and Rolex availability in the West Just wondering how all this stuff with Evergrande and the Chinese economy is going to affect Rolex availability... if at all. For us folks here in the West (USA and Europe). Do you think there will be an overall slow down in luxury spending? Just curious.

1 October 2021, 06:38 AM	#11
Robf52 "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2019 Location: Sunshine State Watch: lots of Rolex Posts: 5,074	I think it's going to take a long, painful equity bear market to crush watch demand. __________________ 126610LV//116508 Daytona YG Black/Champagne 116655 YM40 Everose Oysterflex//126622 YM40 Blue//126600 SD43 126710BLNR//126711CHNR 126334 DJ41 Rhodium/Diamonds//126331 DJ41 TT Wimbledon 124300 OP41 Green//126334 DJ41Mint Green

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1 October 2021, 04:00 AM	#3
HelloMelo "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2019 Location: New york Posts: 610	let me see what my crystal ball says

1 October 2021, 04:05 AM	#4
Snerks "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: USA Posts: 108	The US stock market is still trading at ATH from just a few months ago. Its gonna take a lot more than a 5% pull back, lol.

1 October 2021, 04:16 AM	#5
SWS65SM 2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member Join Date: Jun 2020 Location: EAST Watch: Rainbow....CasiOak Posts: 508	Sure, it is the second largest builder in the world, and its collapse is wiping out the equity investors and will probably have some contagion effects to the regional high yield bond market, but it is not going to become a systemic bomb to drag down that entire country's economy like what Lehman triggered in the US and the rest of the world 14 years ago. The chances of this having enough impact to move the needle of Rolex availability out west (or world wide) is miniscule to none, wishful thinking

1 October 2021, 04:06 AM	#6
TimepieceRPP "TRF" Member Join Date: Jun 2021 Location: UK Posts: 1,120	I guess it is now not the Chinese economy anymore as they are slowing down a lot. I guess it is the social media and the younger generation.

1 October 2021, 04:14 AM	#7
doboy007 "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2017 Location: SD, CA Watch: BLNR/LVc/SkyD/ND41 Posts: 2,519	Hope so but not holding my breath.

1 October 2021, 05:17 AM	#8
macrowatch "TRF" Member Join Date: Aug 2018 Location: HK Posts: 4,366	Nope. Chinese can and are effectively nationalizing the assets. No SS Daytona on shelf anytime soon.

1 October 2021, 10:03 AM	#12
teck21 "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2018 Real Name: Teck Location: South East Asia Watch: Tudor Black Bay 58 Posts: 1,846	I’m the short run, maybe. If there’s enough fear to cause a complete loss of confidence. I think they have it under control though. Evergrande’s ( and the other property developers) debt issues were never an unknown unknown. In the longer run though, the fact remains that China is still poorly urbanised compared to the developed countries (ie still dirt poor in many regions). The link between urbanisation and disposable income is of course not in question. Also not in question is the hundreds of millions more who will urbanize in the decades to come and join the ranks of middle and upper middle income class. India, Indonesia, Vietnam and many other countries have barely even started. If you want a Rolex at msrp, your best bet is to hope that the people of all these countries stay poor forever. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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