Crypto investors panic during market bloodbath

[GradyPhilpott]

I've said many times that I don't know anything about money, but I have often thought that cryptocurrency might be driving the watch, especially Rolex, insanity.

Now we have this, where people are losing everything, because they were too heavily invested in crypto.

Could this the bubble that bursts and returns us to a more sane market?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/12/crypto...bitcoin-crash/

[Moondoggy]

Oh my sh*tcoin...............not the only reason, just add it to the list, a long list.

Bit sad really, the walls are closing in.

[28mm]

nothing new here really...it's always been this kind of market for Crypto. I sold out a week ago and bought in last night.

Don't invest more than you are willing to lose. It's not the stock market but even there you have to manage risk.

[joa]

Originally Posted by 28mm

I sold out a week ago and bought in last night.

well played!

[kieselguhr]

Wasn’t this expected a while back? A crypto winter.

[TC94]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

I've said many times that I don't know anything about money, but I have often thought that cryptocurrency might be driving the watch, especially Rolex, insanity.

Now we have this, where people are losing everything, because they were too heavily invested in crypto.

Could this the bubble that bursts and returns us to a more sane market?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/12/crypto...bitcoin-crash/

I think the stock market and threats of or occurrence of a recession will affect watch prices much more than crypto. I say this because I don’t think long term crypto investors cash out much, and when they do, only a few go extravagant.

Most of the people getting amped about crypto lately lost money before they had a chance to buy a Rolex.

TL:DR Crypto, exotic car and watch social media posts represent a tiny minority of all 3 markets.

[enjoythemusic]

Looked decent enough to me when it hit $1.

As a point of reference, over the same time period from $1 to $30k for BTC we have the Federal Reserve's Debt Dollar Product declining ~60% in value / buying power.

Pretty please don't get too scared or alarmed as that might set off currency markets or threaten the Petrodollar's dominance, yet the USD lost ~15%(!) of value / buying power in just the past year.

[joa]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

yet the USD lost ~15%(!) of value / buying power in just the past year.

all countries are dealing w/ inflation right now. but the USD is still king among currencies, look e.g. at the USD/CHF rate for the past two months. So, when a crisis arrives, the only real currency is the US dollar

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by joa

all countries are dealing w/ inflation right now. but the USD is still king among currencies, look e.g. at the USD/CHF rate for the past two months. So, when a crisis arrives, the only real currency is the US dollar

(Am saying this very friendly, calm, cool, and with math) Said another way, all major central bank currencies are going down 15% or more in only the past year, yet the least of the declining perceived value currencies is the USD. That's something i'd certainly not want to invest in.

Basically, you're comparing ongoing and always-present declines in the perceived value of currencies (a.k.a. inflation), yet all of these currencies lack stability and are not a good store of value.

Ok, got it.

(Again, am saying this calmly, with what's really just basic math as proof)

[joa]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

That's something i'd certainly not want to invest in.

ok so what is it then what you want to invest in right now..

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by joa

ok so what is it then what you want to invest in right now..

Quite a few equity names on my buy list that are in oversold territory with book values far too low for the growth

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by joa

ok so what is it then what you want to invest in right now..

Solid dividend growth companies.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by joa

ok so what is it then what you want to invest in right now..

Water. Sells for more than a gallon of gasoline too.

[Moondoggy]

Originally Posted by joa

ok so what is it then what you want to invest in right now..

Dirt. Pretty simple really.

[77T]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

Could this the bubble that bursts and returns us to a more sane market?

I agree this bubble could burst. Maybe not solely in crypto, but in the debacle to come within the companies people are entrusting their ledgers. A “Lehman Bros.” Level of fraud may be unraveling. More about that at the bottom…

Rolex values in the secondary market will vary with widespread economic panics.*

So, if the demand loses its core support (that is, fools who will pay ridiculous prices) then we shall see lower prices. One thing to watch is the number of resellers in any shakeout. The growth of traders in high-end SWISS watches would be the canary in the coal mine.

Rolex itself won’t lower their prices for the original sale, though. What we’d see is a sharp decline in demand for the SARU/BRIL/EMRO/SAPH super-gemset types of uber expensive PM models.

* On crypto’s role in economics, I admit I share a dim view of where we are today. First, the original use case for the blockchain is still the “King of the Ash Heap”: BTC.

It is suffering. As the article says, some idiots have traded poorly by diving into “fakir coins” - this happens in many bubbles.

Tales of woe on forums will always fetch headlines. Can you imagine Dogecoin “investing”? (A crypto whose creator brazenly admitted was a “joke”)

But hiding inside the blockchain are fraudsters. What happens to your wallet if/when they go belly up for badly speculating in “fake coins”?

My bottom line is this: until crypto stops valuing itself in hard currencies ($, €, ¥, £), it will never be a store of value.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by 77T

My bottom line is this: until crypto stops valuing itself in hard currencies ($, €, ¥, £), it will never be a store of value.

I have given up trying to explain this to people

[77T]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I have given up trying to explain this to people

Exactly, Brian…

It won’t stop people from speculating and that is where the shakeouts always occur. They just don’t learn from history: tulip bulbs, swamp land, CDS, etc.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Willyjo]

Originally Posted by 77T

Exactly, Brian…

It won’t stop people from speculating and that is where the shakeouts always occur. They just don’t learn from history: tulip bulbs, swamp land, CDS, etc.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

Tulip bulbs indeed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Watch This]

Crypto never made sense to me for a variety of reasons not the least of which was/is the U.S. Government never, ever tolerating an alternative form of currency.

One other reason was when I learned my unemployed 23 year old nephew with a nose ring and a GED was sitting on 500k worth of the crap.

[Mifune]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

I've said many times that I don't know anything about money, but I have often thought that cryptocurrency might be driving the watch, especially Rolex, insanity.

Now we have this, where people are losing everything, because they were too heavily invested in crypto.

Could this the bubble that bursts and returns us to a more sane market?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/12/crypto...bitcoin-crash/

LOL

The Article should read...

'BITCOIN CRASH: Bitcoin @ $30,000 is only +50% over it's former 2017 all time high... time to sell!'

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Mifune

LOL

The Article should read...

'BITCOIN CRASH: Bitcoin @ $30,000 is only +50% over it's former 2017 all time high... time to sell!'

yeah, bunch of stocks wiped out 4-6 years worth of gains while btc is sitting at a nice 300-500% since pre covid. people who bought the top of all markets got burned but people from years ago are still sitting comfy. media gonna media

what about the blue chip stocks down 80% in 6 months? they don't like saying people will lose their house due to those lol

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah, bunch of stocks wiped out 4-6 years worth of gains while btc is sitting at a nice 300-500% since pre covid. people who bought the top of all markets got burned but people from years ago are still sitting comfy. media gonna media

what about the blue chip stocks down 80% in 6 months? they don't like saying people will lose their house due to those lol

Agree BTC has performed very well overall. Where it struggles is the volatility. Like sure, Netflix stock may be down as much as BTC, but BTC advocates are comparing it to Dollars, Euros, etc. not to a single tech stock.

If somebody who was day trading NFLX instead pours that into BTC, whatever because both are highly volatile anyway, but if they took their life savings of out Vanguard index funds with rock bottom costs to pour it all in BTC then that's just dumb IMO.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by Star Ferry

Agree BTC has performed very well overall. Where it struggles is the volatility. Like sure, Netflix stock may be down as much as BTC, but BTC advocates are comparing it to Dollars, Euros, etc. not to a single tech stock.

If somebody who was day trading NFLX instead pours that into BTC, whatever because both are highly volatile anyway, but if they took their life savings of out Vanguard index funds with rock bottom costs to pour it all in BTC then that's just dumb IMO.

yeah i think people need to be able to expect the volatility and stick to a plan but instead they panic. to me it's a very long term play because as we've seen, it was in a range of 30k-70k for 1.5 years now so it won't make anyone rich quick at this point. i think in hindsight in a few years wall street and others will realize it wasn't a risky asset to dump during this time and it shouldn't have been grouped into the same bucket as growth stocks

[Star Ferry]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah i think people need to be able to expect the volatility and stick to a plan but instead they panic. to me it's a very long term play because as we've seen, it was in a range of 30k-70k for 1.5 years now so it won't make anyone rich quick at this point. i think in hindsight in a few years wall street and others will realize it wasn't a risky asset to dump during this time and it shouldn't have been grouped into the same bucket as growth stocks

On an unrelated note, the last two times I tried to watch Netflix the video would not start, so I rented a movie from Amazon Prime Video instead. Crazy how they can spend so much on consultants and highly paid strategists, yet not even stay on top of technical performance. You could have the best content in the world, but with that performance it’s meaningless. How many people are making over 500K at Netflix right now to cook up fancy strategies, when the bare minimum (videos can actually be watched) is spotty.

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by huncho

yeah, bunch of stocks wiped out 4-6 years worth of gains while btc is sitting at a nice 300-500% since pre covid. people who bought the top of all markets got burned but people from years ago are still sitting comfy. media gonna media

what about the blue chip stocks down 80% in 6 months? they don't like saying people will lose their house due to those lol

?? Please name one blue chip that is down 80%?? Far as I know, there aren't any. Coinbase is down that much, but I surely wouldn't call that even close to being a bluechip.

NASDAQ outperformed BTC since 2017, it's up 65%.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by HHIslander

?? Please name one blue chip that is down 80%?? Far as I know, there aren't any. Coinbase is down that much, but I surely wouldn't call that even close to being a bluechip.

NASDAQ outperformed BTC since 2017, it's up 65%.

of course the nasdaq outperformed btc if you pick 2017 when btc topped. what if you pick 2016? lol

and i stand corrected, i guess by literal definition no blue chip stock is actually down 80%, amazon is probably the worst at -50%. i should've said big cap stocks instead, but both netflix and paypal are down 80% from highs and those aren't exactly garbage companies. so imagine investing in one of the biggest companies in history gave you a similar drawback as btc

[HHIslander]

Originally Posted by huncho

of course the nasdaq outperformed btc if you pick 2017 when btc topped. what if you pick 2016? lol

and i stand corrected, i guess by literal definition no blue chip stock is actually down 80%, amazon is probably the worst at -50%. i should've said big cap stocks instead, but both netflix and paypal are down 80% from highs and those aren't exactly garbage companies. so imagine investing in one of the biggest companies in history gave you a similar drawback as btc

The other guy picked the high in 2017, not me.

You and I have already discussed crypto. Its' down more than 50% since then I do believe.

[rolexandlange]

Originally Posted by GradyPhilpott

I've said many times that I don't know anything about money, but I have often thought that cryptocurrency might be driving the watch, especially Rolex, insanity.

Now we have this, where people are losing everything, because they were too heavily invested in crypto.

Could this the bubble that bursts and returns us to a more sane market?

https://nypost.com/2022/05/12/crypto...bitcoin-crash/

For some reason AP and crypto seem to go together moreso. The 15202 was almost 200k now can be had closer to 100k, which is more in line with bitcoin's performance.

Rolex appeal is truly universal, not just a handful of cryto folks. Anyway, bitcoin is down like 50% from a year ago and the ceramic Daytona is maybe 25% higher than a year ago. I don't mess with crypto but watches have been a decent store of value in the recent volatility. Just like anything though you could lose your shirt if you paid top dollar for a brief period of irrational Rolex exuberance in early 2022.

[GradyPhilpott]

Originally Posted by rolexandlange

For some reason AP and crypto seem to go together moreso. The 15202 was almost 200k now can be had closer to 100k, which is more in line with bitcoin's performance.

Rolex appeal is truly universal, not just a handful of cryto folks. Anyway, bitcoin is down like 50% from a year ago and the ceramic Daytona is maybe 25% higher than a year ago. I don't mess with crypto but watches have been a decent store of value in the recent volatility. Just like anything though you could lose your shirt if you paid top dollar for a brief period of irrational Rolex exuberance in early 2022.

Thanks for all the information, guys.

Rolexandlang drove to the heart of my original question, so extra thanks for that.

[TC94]

I just want to interject here that crypto is far more than just bitcoin as a currency or store of value.

Head to YouTube and search for Kevin O’Leary and Mark Cuban videos discussing the utility tokens, logistics blockchains, authentication protocols and more.

Cryptocurrency is a misnomer. Bitcoin can actually be used as a programming base. Ethereum even more so. I’ve posted this before here, but now the big players are starting to understand these things.

That said, as I’ve also posted here, 98% of crypto is pure junk. Scams, disappearing projects, token sales that are never used as advertised to build out, etc.

But there will be a few really big hitters in the space over the next 5 years. BTC and ETH are my best guesses, along with about 3 others I own tiny amounts of. They could become the next Amazon or Google for web3, or it could all fall apart and become MySpace and Pets.com.

Time will tell. But the technology is profound, and using it requires a cryptocurrency in most use cases. So some will survive and thrive.