BLRO vs BLNR launch

[Lz4000]

I need your insights please.

I’m on a few lists for the BLRO SS but don’t expect to receive it any time soon.
However I was asking myself. Was the hype similar when the BLNR hit the market back in 2013? Meaning a few crazy 1 or 2 years before the waiting time reaches a “healthy” 6-12 months?

I was not following the prices and interests in that model back then as I am today. But I am sure a lot of you guys did and can compare it to today’s situation.

[tyler1980]

absolutely not even close. The BLRO launch was even bigger than the Daytona C launch. Without making any subjective judgments on the watches (although i prefer the BLRO) its undeniable that watch market for hot watches is in a completely different place today, so its not even a comparison.

Daytona C waitlists absolutely didn't close within 24 hours. BLRO lists did at a lot of AD's.

... so if its bigger initially than the Daytona its way bigger than the BLNR

[travisb]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

absolutely not even close. The BLRO launch was even bigger than the Daytona C launch. Not making any judgments on the watches (although i prefer the BLRO) but the watch market for hot watches is in a completely different place so its not even a comparison.

Daytona C waitlists absolutely didn't close within 24 hours. BLRO lists did at a lot of AD's.

Completely agree. It’s a whole different watch world right now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[HL65]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

absolutely not even close. The BLRO launch was even bigger than the Daytona C launch. Without making any subjective judgments on the watches (although i prefer the BLRO) its undeniable that watch market for hot watches is in a completely different place today, so its not even a comparison.

Daytona C waitlists absolutely didn't close within 24 hours. BLRO lists did at a lot of AD's.

... so if its bigger initially than the Daytona its way bigger than the BLNR

X2

[037]

Originally Posted by Lz4000

Meaning a few crazy 1 or 2 years before the waiting time reaches a “healthy” 6-12 months?

The BLRO hasn't been out long enough to know what the supply is going to look like. Trying to predict it now is impossible. Some larger ADs have received at least 2 or 3 already. We just think supply is small due to the constant complaint threads and people told that they're "first" when in reality they might not be.

But, demand is higher now than ever. That's a fact.

[kauffee]

I would disagree with Tyler and say the launches of the SS BLRO and Daytona C felt about the same for me. With both watches it was essentially the excitement of the ceramic bezel coming to a SS model. With the Daytona C it was expected, of course, and I'd say with the SS BLRO it was a bit of a surprise. But the hype for the watches feels about the same.

The big difference is that the BLRO is launching in an environment of complete scarcity of professional models. So the usual hype and clamor (and gray market prices) seem magnified because you can't get any SS watch, much less the hottest new release.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by kauffee

I would disagree with Tyler and say the launches of the SS BLRO and Daytona C felt about the same for me. With both watches it was essentially the excitement of the ceramic bezel coming to a SS model. With the Daytona C it was expected, of course, and I'd say with the SS BLRO it was a bit of a surprise. But the hype for the watches feels about the same.

The big difference is that the BLRO is launching in an environment of complete scarcity of professional models. So the usual hype and clamor (and gray market prices) seem magnified because you can't get any SS watch, much less the hottest new release.

ive always said the Daytona will always be the more in demand watch long term (and im not a SS Daytona fan) but I have never seen anything like what happened in the two or three days after Basel.

I happened to be in my AD a day or two after and he said he phone hadn't stopped ringing. The daytona was a steady stream of interest but the BLRO was like a bomb going off at once. Daytona will win the race though.

[Lz4000]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

Daytona will win the race though.

It always will bc I think supply is even more limited compared to all other SS models

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Lz4000

It always will bc I think supply is even more limited compared to all other SS models

the GMT isnt a popular complication where as a chrono seems to be, even if supply is the same. More people chose a sub c vs a GMT LN for example. They look almost the same to be honest and the GMT has an added complication. People still buy the sub.

[kauffee]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

the GMT isnt a popular complication where as a chrono seems to be, even if supply is the same.

I’ve always wondered why chronos were so popular. My theory is that it’s a complication you can interact with. Even a GMT, you just set the hands and look at it. But with a chrono you can push buttons and people love pushing buttons.

[kauffee]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

ive always said the Daytona will always be the more in demand watch long term (and im not a SS Daytona fan) but I have never seen anything like what happened in the two or three days after Basel.

I happened to be in my AD a day or two after and he said he phone hadn't stopped ringing. The daytona was a steady stream of interest but the BLRO was like a bomb going off at once. Daytona will win the race though.

Yeah I'd believe that. Rolex demand just seems crazy right now. More people than ever seem to be paying attention.

Or maybe all the people who were still on the 116520 lists just assumed they'd be transferred to the 116500 lists and didn't bother to call =)

[gccmd]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

ive always said the Daytona will always be the more in demand watch long term (and im not a SS Daytona fan) but I have never seen anything like what happened in the two or three days after Basel.

I happened to be in my AD a day or two after and he said he phone hadn't stopped ringing. The daytona was a steady stream of interest but the BLRO was like a bomb going off at once. Daytona will win the race though.

Exactly

[Navarino]

Originally Posted by kauffee

The big difference is that the BLRO is launching in an environment of complete scarcity of professional models. So the usual hype and clamor (and gray market prices) seem magnified because you can't get any SS watch, much less the hottest new release.

This is the key. Comparing the BLNR (or Daytona) announcement reception to the BLRO is an apples and oranges comparison.

Hate to sound like such a simpleton here, but this really boils down to basic supply and demand...

1. Demand continues grow. On a macroeconomic level, we've been full steam ahead with engines roaring out of the last crisis. While there has been plenty of noise in the stock market over the past 2 years, we've been generally more and more in the green as time elapses in this run. If you don't trust that as a barometer, look elsewhere. U.S. consumer savings rates have decreased to 3.1% of disposable income (down from ~5.5% about the time the Daytona C was first announced). U.S. auto volumes aren't slowing down after already reaching all-time highs (one of the companies our firm owns is a Tier 1 OEM supplier; we track this data very closely). List goes on and on regarding people just spending more money relative to a few years ago.

Forget the hard-to-get flashy new Rolex models for a second. I guarantee you the demand for a standard Sub is higher today than it was when the DaytonaC or BLNR were announced. A rising tide lifts all the boats -- so this general growth in demand is only further magnifying the issue with popular models.

2. Supply constraints on SS professional models. I obviously can't throw statistics around on this, but from the collective anecdotal information on this forum (regarding availability, wait-lists, "my AD told me..", etc.) it just sounds like ADs are getting less of SS sports models that we all love. I highly doubt Rolex is producing less professional line watches on an absolute basis (i.e., X subs in 2018 is less than Y subs in 2017), but clearly there is a noticeable disconnect and supply growth is being outpaced by demand growth at an increasing rate. If they actually are producing less on an absolute basis, that disconnect grows larger.

If you tried to normalize for these differences, my guess would be the BLRO has had a very similar level of positive reception/demand to the Daytona C. The higher grey prices (higher asking prices on an absolute basis and much higher on a relative/% of MSRP basis) than the Daytona is probably due more so to the issues outlined above rather than it being a more "popular" or "wanted" watch.

I wasn't tracking watches or the industry as closely when the BLNR was first announced. I'm sure others can add much more color on that one. From some of what I've seen here on threads though, it almost sounds like that watch had mixed-reception initially (regardless of the "new" factor) and was one you could pull out straight from an AD's display case for awhile (i.e., it was never like the Daytona C).

[Fat_ninja]

Anyone offered a BLRO should take it. Whats funny is all those people that complained about
1) rasberry
2) end link
3) jubilee


It has mass appeal and limited alternatives/substitutes... the substitutes are even hard to get.

[037]

The market seems to be far more saturated with flippers now than in 2016 or 2013. Lists are larger for everything that's hard to get.

[Seaswirl]

The BLRO is much harder to obtain at its release than the BLNR, but I think it has more to do with the current scarcity of ss sport models than the desirability of the BLRO. The DaytonaC though seemed to be even more in demand than the BLRO upon release.

[denmanproject]

The insanity increases every year

[g_luck]

The US economy is doing very well. Next downturn in the economy and you will be able to get any Rolex within a reasonable amount of time. I personally know several people who are wearing Rolexes that literally can't afford health insurance but buy the watch anyway. I could be wrong....only time will tell.

[glamorama]

Originally Posted by g_luck

The US economy is doing very well. Next downturn in the economy and you will be able to get any Rolex within a reasonable amount of time. I personally know several people who are wearing Rolexes that literally can't afford health insurance but buy the watch anyway. I could be wrong....only time will tell.

Not only US economy, it will depend on the Asian economy since that is where the largest sales increase has been.

[Jason71]

When the BLNR was released at Basel, there were quite a few here on the forum that didn’t even like it. I remember seeing it in dealer’s cases within 9 months of its release (not everywhere of course but a couple locations). Like someone mentioned though.......it is a different climate now also. I remember seeing a white and black dial 116520 sitting in a case available to anyone for MSRP (maybe even a slight discount) back 8-10 years ago.

[Helmi]

I personally like the look of the 3 subdials on the chrono watches. Add to that the contrast in color (e.g. The panda look or the silver rings on the black) and the design becomes much more appealing to me. Regarding sub vs. Black GMT, I think the reason the black GMT is not popular is the fact that there has always been "iconic" GMTs around such as the Pepsi, coke, root beer...etc, but for the sub, black has always been the iconic color

[Spoonage]

Don't recall when the BLNR came out, but I got mine Q3 2014... walked into an AD, 1st purchase from them (at discount) walked out with it. Long way to answer that the landscape was completely different...

BLNR Available at discount from AD --> BLRO Not available from AD and > 2x MSRP from Grey...

[lenfried29]

BLRO released at the different time then BLNR. The market for SS models was already short. According to my AD BLRO is more desirable than Daytona C at the moment.

[nyc2la]

Originally Posted by Spoonage

Don't recall when the BLNR came out, but I got mine Q3 2014... walked into an AD, 1st purchase from them (at discount) walked out with it. Long way to answer that the landscape was completely different...

BLNR Available at discount from AD --> BLRO Not available from AD and > 2x MSRP from Grey...

Similar story for me as well. In August 2014, I walked into an AD in a major city and got to choose between the BLNR and the SDc. Both were available in the case. Times were different back then.

[Lz4000]

Originally Posted by nyc2la

Similar story for me as well. In August 2014, I walked into an AD in a major city and got to choose between the BLNR and the SDc. Both were available in the case. Times were different back then.

Interesting. Seems like it’s
Availability = Rolex supply policy x global economic situation x desirability of particular model

All factors leading to the BLRO situation today

[AK797]

The genuine demand for the D500 and BLRO is very similar but the flipper demand for the BLRO is so much higher as the market is hyped up now. BLNR was a pretty normal release.

[montecarlo77]

The BLRO has decades of history and the BLNR does not so I expect the demand for the BLRO to ALWAYS be much higher than the BLNR....

[TheRtHonA]

Originally Posted by montecarlo77

The BLRO has decades of history and the BLNR does not so I expect the demand for the BLRO to ALWAYS be much higher than the BLNR....

Lots of history but I was told by a dealer that when he sold the 5 digit references the Coke and Black bezel variants were more popular than the Pepsi.

[Air Rescue 5]

The BLRN is going to be a classic someday. Sooner than later....