The real reason for the SS shortage: No real competition in the SS market

[mangoseed]

It surprises me that this is never brought up as a factor with regards to the Rolex SS shortage.

Omega does nothing but spam out limited editions while their flagship Seamaster has been outdated since the turn of the millennium.

5-10 years ago Breitling were at least somewhat respectable, but now they have the worst resale value I have ever seen and have completely turned their back on the history of the brand. The new ownership is a complete disaster.

What else is there? IWC maybe, but it is a bit of a specific taste. Other than that there are just niche brands like Zenith, JLC etc. I suppose you could consider Grand Seiko.

Rolex is the only solid choice in the current market, even more so if you want a quality bracelet.

[Dr Watches]

True. Most brands are trash.

[Dr. Robert]

Originally Posted by Dr Watches

True. Most brands are trash.

a Rolex is a Rolex, the rest are just watches.

[Dr Watches]

Originally Posted by Dr. Robert

a Rolex is a Rolex, the rest are just watches.

in 2000'ish, there were so many compelling alternatives to Rolex. The IWC 3536 from back then has better case and dial work than any modern Rolex. It also had vastly more WR than a Sea Dweller at the time.

Now, IWC's update is much crappier while Rolex today is nicer than Rolex in 2000.

The OP's point is really well made, and now that I've thought about it I'm not sure why it didn't occur to me

Watches today are sillier, larger, more expensive, and generally less desirable than they were even 10 years ago. While Rolex is just rolling on not sucking (though they have some goofy new models too).

[Kaioken x20]

Agreed.
my friends and I call them shitters

Originally Posted by Dr Watches

True. Most brands are trash.

[Etschell]

Hublot big bang crash.

[ndls]

I swear the only competition in my mind is Grand Seiko. And I would consider GS as a complimentary to a solid Rolex collection.

I only started this journey 1.5 years ago, and I genuinely wanted to seek other companies. Truthfully, Rolex SS just fit the bill. Can’t stop loving my Sub!

[MTBer]

I kinda feel bad for Omega. Ignoring resale value, my biggest point of contention with them is their insistence on continually redesigning product lines every couple years rather than letting designs stick around long enough to become iconic then making gradual, conservative changes as needed. From a strictly horological perspective, what do they need to do in order to compete with Rolex? Their METAS program is industry-leading, and their basic movement is orders of magnitude more resistant to magnetism than Rolex’s purpose built “antimagnetic” watch.

To some people, if it doesn’t say Rolex on the dial it automatically loses regardless of technical merit. How do you compete with that?

[dtwer]

Originally Posted by MTBer

I kinda feel bad for Omega. Ignoring resale value, my biggest point of contention with them is their insistence on continually redesigning product lines every couple years rather than letting designs stick around long enough to become iconic then making gradual, conservative changes as needed. From a strictly horological perspective, what do they need to do in order to compete with Rolex? Their METAS program is industry-leading, and their basic movement is orders of magnitude more resistant to magnetism than Rolex’s purpose built “antimagnetic” watch.

To some people, if it doesn’t say Rolex on the dial it automatically loses regardless of technical merit. How do you compete with that?

I agree. Rolex plays the long game and also has the discipline to not get distracted by the short-term market fluctuations.

[Rolexavidfan]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I agree. Rolex plays the long game and also has the discipline to not get distracted by the short-term market fluctuations.

Very true! My biggest regret was not taking on the LV and the Sub ND 5 digit version at a great price some 10 years ago. At that time, the craze were all those humongous watch where I went along with. All of those watches are long gone. It’s a good thing I had the sense to shift and scored a Daytona SS White which is still with me till this date.

Congrats to Rolex, they certainly know what they’re doing as well as playing the long game.


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[Roleplay]

Originally Posted by MTBer

I kinda feel bad for Omega. Ignoring resale value, my biggest point of contention with them is their insistence on continually redesigning product lines every couple years rather than letting designs stick around long enough to become iconic then making gradual, conservative changes as needed.

This is the very reason why I personally think Rolex should slow down on their novelties. Since 2015, they've been churning out so many new things, it's got to take its toll eventually. I think if they release a Coke only one year after Pepsi, it's a wrong move in my opinion. How many variations of the GMT can the market take before it becomes ridiculous?

[MTBer]

Originally Posted by Roleplay

How many variations of the GMT can the market take before it becomes ridiculous?

All of them, if they can’t be purchased anyway

[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by roleplay

this is the very reason why i personally think rolex should slow down on their novelties. Since 2015, they've been churning out so many new things, it's got to take its toll eventually. I think if they release a coke only one year after pepsi, it's a wrong move in my opinion. How many variations of the gmt can the market take before it becomes ridiculous?

+1

So so true. They are essentially running the risk of becoming a fashion brand. 99% of the is it safe to... and I leave my stickers on folks will eventually move on, which might leave the brand depleted. Let’s see.

[Cryten]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

The Seamaster lineup is a mess. Too many models..and they keep changing the design every year. Some are vintage looking , some are modern. Some are this, some are that...Too many!

The other Omega references nobody cares about at all, so they aren't worth mentioning.

..........

Breitling. Wow they are in rough shape......... They must make 2000 versions of the Navitimer, which is just poison. Who can even figure out what they want? Forget it, I'll just get a Rolex.

Originally Posted by Roleplay

This is the very reason why I personally think Rolex should slow down on their novelties. Since 2015, they've been churning out so many new things, it's got to take its toll eventually. I think if they release a Coke only one year after Pepsi, it's a wrong move in my opinion. How many variations of the GMT can the market take before it becomes ridiculous?

This is what I think is killing a lot of watch brands. The endless desire for new models to appeal to a generation with the attention span of goldfish. I think Basel isn't helping either as too many brands pump out new models no one asked for just to fill their booth. Was it last year that Omega released over 120 SKUs? That is utter madness. Now Rolex is playing the Basel release game too and I think it's a mistake, I'd like to see them sit a few out.

Originally Posted by Montremoi

Tudor has been on a roll since its revival. But I don't know if you count the brand as separate from Rolex.

Tudor has been on a roll since it's re-release in the US market, but how many versions of the Black Bay do we need? They run the risk of diluting their brand value with endless releases. Look how quickly the Panerai line up exploded into utter confusion, discernible to only the most diehard enthusiast.

[Roleplay]

Originally Posted by Cryten

Tudor has been on a roll since it's re-release in the US market, but how many versions of the Black Bay do we need? They run the risk of diluting their brand value with an endless releases. Look how quickly the Panerai line up exploded into utter confusion, discernible to only the most diehard enthusiast.

This is why I’ve always felt that Rolex should stop making more colour variations of the GMT! To be honest, I’d be very disappointed if they did a Coke this coming Basel.



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[brian89]

Originally Posted by MTBer

I kinda feel bad for Omega. Ignoring resale value, my biggest point of contention with them is their insistence on continually redesigning product lines every couple years rather than letting designs stick around long enough to become iconic then making gradual, conservative changes as needed. From a strictly horological perspective, what do they need to do in order to compete with Rolex? Their METAS program is industry-leading, and their basic movement is orders of magnitude more resistant to magnetism than Rolex’s purpose built “antimagnetic” watch.

To some people, if it doesn’t say Rolex on the dial it automatically loses regardless of technical merit. How do you compete with that?

THIS!

omega has so much potential

[Turnaround]

Originally Posted by ndls

I swear the only competition in my mind is Grand Seiko. And I would consider GS as a complimentary to a solid Rolex collection.

I would have said the same thing until I got one. Everything that was posted as wrong with the Snowflake, my example had. Misaligned hands, the GS were off center and not in line with each other and a few other less noticeable problem. Hugely disappointed on QC, what Rolex is famous for and GS was supposed to be.

But I do agree this the thread topic. Rolex wears the crown for a reason.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Turnaround

I would have said the same thing until I got one. Everything that was posted as wrong with the Snowflake, my example had. Misaligned hands, the GS were off center and not in line with each other and a few other less noticeable problem. Hugely disappointed on QC, what Rolex is famous for and GS was supposed to be.

But I do agree this the thread topic. Rolex wears the crown for a reason.

a sample set of 1 is most likely a fluke. Plenty of one off Rolex purchasers who would have the same story. Because its their only one they would think the QC is exceedingly bad.

By almost all accounts GS is on an entirely different level than Rolex as far as finishing and details.

[Turnaround]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

a sample set of 1 is most likely a fluke. Plenty of one off Rolex purchasers who would have the same story. Because its their only one they would think the QC is exceedingly bad.



By almost all accounts GS is on an entirely different level than Rolex as far as finishing and details.

I hear you about the one off fluke, and was willing to accept that at the time I purchased the Snowflake, but a quick search revealed that I was one of many that received similar examples. The worst I’ve seen about SS Rolex sport is a misaligned bezel. Finding more than that takes a good bit more searching.

[Talbel]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

a sample set of 1 is most likely a fluke. Plenty of one off Rolex purchasers who would have the same story. Because its their only one they would think the QC is exceedingly bad.

By almost all accounts GS is on an entirely different level than Rolex as far as finishing and details.

Well said

[GMTSpas]

Originally Posted by ndls

I swear the only competition in my mind is Grand Seiko. And I would consider GS as a complimentary to a solid Rolex collection.

I only started this journey 1.5 years ago, and I genuinely wanted to seek other companies. Truthfully, Rolex SS just fit the bill. Can’t stop loving my Sub!

Agree. GS spring drive was a game changer and their finishing is right up there with any respectable luxury brand

[gordonite]

GS hardly a competition for rolex, they perhaps more in league of Omega and Tudor.

[asiparks]

Originally Posted by gordonite

GS hardly a competition for rolex, they perhaps more in league of Omega and Tudor.

your criteria being ?

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by asiparks

your criteria being ?

I will put my .02 in as to why people feel that way about GS.

I mentioned earlier that with the GS models I own and have handled, while having tremendously high quality dials, handsets, casework, polishing and movements, they unfortunately have annoying quality deficiencies in some important areas...such as the screw down crown and bracelet construction.

Their screw down crowns are no where near as good as Rolex and a large number of GS bracelets are assembled with pins and collars, like one would find on a sub $200 reference.

Rolex is just doesn't have those deficiencies.

[Fedpete]

Originally Posted by ndls

I swear the only competition in my mind is Grand Seiko. And I would consider GS as a complimentary to a solid Rolex collection.

I only started this journey 1.5 years ago, and I genuinely wanted to seek other companies. Truthfully, Rolex SS just fit the bill. Can’t stop loving my Sub!

Lot of people saying GS is the emerging competitor. I handled in person recently and after 4 seconds I was bored silly. Great quality but sterile imo.


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[ericisback]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

...,after 4 seconds I was bored silly. Great quality but sterile imo.

I know lots of people who say that about a 116610LN. I disagree, but just sayin...

IMHO, the GS line has every model that Rolex does (by design) - they are only as boring as their imitation of Rolex allows.

Again, at the risk of beating a dead horse - I LOVE Rolex, I’m just saying I do not believe GS is a “passing fad”.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Fedpete

Lot of people saying GS is the emerging competitor. I handled in person recently and after 4 seconds I was bored silly. Great quality but sterile imo.


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sterile is the vibe from Rolex when you have a tudor next to it. A tudor is more fun for sure.

Its interesting as there is a WF video which makes the same point. Its the comparison of a BB and a Sub. Worth a watch as its a great video talking about the similarities and differences

If a GS said "Rolex" people would be all over it, i dont even think there is a question about that.

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by ndls

I swear the only competition in my mind is Grand Seiko. And I would consider GS as a complimentary to a solid Rolex collection.

I only started this journey 1.5 years ago, and I genuinely wanted to seek other companies. Truthfully, Rolex SS just fit the bill. Can’t stop loving my Sub!

And if you wanted to sell a GS, would you be able to do so as readily and not lose money in the process ?

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by ALF61

And if you wanted to sell a GS, would you be able to do so as readily and not lose money in the process ?

if your criteria is flip value rolex is the best bet. That ignores the fundamentals of the watch... which should carry some weight? oh wait. its about the money

[semi-ambivalent]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

if your criteria is flip value rolex is the best bet. That ignores the fundamentals of the watch... which should carry some weight? oh wait. its about the money

This. Ignoring the fundamentals.

The ability to flip a Rolex for a profit is entirely driven by demand, which is itself driven almost entirely by Rolex scarcity. But how genuine is that? If Rolex began producing a lot more of the "scarce" SS sports models they would not get rid of the base demand for a popular watch but it could kill the markups, the "special customer lists", the non-refundable deposits. But Rolex doesn't want that because, in spite of the damage it causes to the end customer and the buying experience, it's now part-and-parcel of Rolex's allure.

You're on The List! You're soon to be in The Big Club! You'll have your watch just in time to see the new releases at Baselworld. A strange psychology indeed.