Prices are not dropping!

[Tavli3]

I've been reading and watching videos of a few experts claiming prices are dropping and some cases dropping hard. I'm not going to dispute the fact that certain models of certain brands might not be dropping but The Rolex market is as strong as it's ever been. And that's not me saying it, it's Mr Market saying it.

Everybody agrees that a watch is only worth what people are willing to pay for it. You can say it another way also, that a watch IS worth what people are paying for it.

Sotheby's online auction that just closed. Strong pricing. No argument from me that its crazy pricing but that's what the market is saying these watches are worth. So the experts can say what they want I'll go by what people are actually paying.

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

I'll go with auction pricing over what is conveyed on C24 any day.

[mgsooner]

This board is such a joy these days

[vinny84]

What you’re reading and watching is speculation by people that have been in the industry for awhile.

Does it means it’s going to happen? No

If there is going to be any correction, it’s going to happen when and if we go into a world recession which hasn’t happen yet.

[2nastie]

TRF never surprises me.

Here we have the complete opposite "opinion," but this guy is referring to auction prices (which are beyond inflated).

[Frank McKay]

Originally Posted by 2nastie

TRF never surprises me.

Here we have the complete opposite "opinion," but this guy is referring to auction prices (which are beyond inflated).

I was just about to say that.

[sillo]

Originally Posted by 2nastie

TRF never surprises me.

Here we have the complete opposite "opinion," but this guy is referring to auction prices (which are beyond inflated).

Yeah auction prices are not good judgments of anything except for the most rare and expensive. For something like a BLNR I'd ignore the auction prices and look right here on the forum.

[Tavli3]

As a buyer and collector I would agree with you but I think the sellers would strongly disagree with us.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

BLNR Jubilee- 22.5K No drop here
BLRO- 25K Looks like an increase to me
116500LN Black Dial- 27.5K no drop here either
04 Kermit Flat 4- 21,250.00 lot of money for this.

[dkast85]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

hey! Phish! Nice.

[1665fan]

BLNR on this forum is 16.5k...auction buyers have more money than sense

[Catatafish]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

BLNR on this forum is 16.5k...auction buyers have more money than sense

This is what I was thinking. I've been watching some auctions lately and it seems like there are a bunch of Thurston Howell the III types sitting in the audience with no clue what the actual market is. Maybe they think, ah it's an auction so I MUST be getting the market price.

[glamorama]

It would be more interesting if someone actually came forward and said “I paid those prices, this week” but nobody dares.

[enjoythemusic]

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

I hear there’s speculation - both for and against, whether this will happen!

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by The Libertine

I hear there’s speculation - both for and against, whether this will happen!

LOL!!!

Please mods / admin..... it's time for a separate section for speculation. Just do it!

Don't think, do!

Thank you.


"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing."
-- Oscar Wilde

[The Libertine]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

LOL!!!

Please mods / admin..... it's time for a separate section for speculation. Just do it!

Don't think, do!

Thank you.


"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing."
-- Oscar Wilde

[ian.thomas]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

LOL!!!

Please mods / admin..... it's time for a separate section for speculation. Just do it!

Don't think, do!

Thank you.


"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing."
-- Oscar Wilde

I vote we make Steven a mod so he can keep up with moving all of these threads to the 'new' section.

[DoDe]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

LOL!!!

Please mods / admin..... it's time for a separate section for speculation. Just do it!

Don't think, do!

Thank you.


"A cynic is a man who knows the price of everything but the value of nothing."
-- Oscar Wilde

This. Please!

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

Steven with all due respect and I say this nonmaliciously, if these types of threads offend you or anybody else, nothing says you have to read them.

I find threads of whether it's safe to wear my Rolex in a public Men's Room and such as idiotic but I just pass over those threads and don't comment.

We are in uncharted waters these days and unfortunately that's the state of affairs we find ourselves in as collectors. Availability and pricing are a big part of the watch buying experience today. I don't like any more than anyone else does. But I do find it intriguing that there is a 25% price difference between Trusted Sellers and Auction prices. We can easily just chalk it up to auction people being all idiots but I doubt that's the case. There's more to it than that, what it is I have no idea.

Since prices are everywhere from ridiculous to insane and we can't get any watches, not even a DJ41 what should we talk about? Should it just be the Rolex Incoming or my dog licked my crystal, what do I do now Forum?

Before I joined and then decided to become a Pledge member I saw a Blue Sky Dweller on someone I was sitting next to in a restaurant and at that time I knew nothing about watches. So I asked him what it was and he told me. So now that i was in a psoition to actually buy one I went into the local Mayors store and got my head handed to me when I asked for a blue sky dweller.

After that I figured I better do some studying so I started reading the Forum and found out all about the shortages which I knew nothing about. And then I got in the vintage pieces and learned enough to buy one vintage piece from ebay and one from C24 without getting ripped off from the knowledge and very helpful people here that I consider real experts. The knowledge I got from them and the Forum in general was worth 100 times my Pledge money.

My point being is that the Forum is helpful to new comers in many many ways and it could be this kind of thread that helps someone from over paying or getting ripped off.

Again no offense intended.

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

Steven with all due respect and I say this nonmaliciously...

Wonderful posts and appreciate the dialog. Agree threads like this should be on TRF as members are interested, yet all we need in another sub-forum under the Rolex & Tudor Watch Topics and call it "Speculation, Pricing...." and whatever other topic fall into that as the title of that sub-board.

Thus members will have a place to post, learn, and (hopefully) have fun. IMHO the original topic of this thread seems so popular as to nearly require it's own section anyway imho.

Please TRF. Mods / admins, at least start a vote, let us members decide. Please. Anything other than wading though more.... in the Rolex General Discussion. Pricing, speculation is NOT Rolex General Discussion, it needs a sub-board.

[Jerrocop]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

Nah . . . I enjoy these posts!

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by Jerrocop

Nah . . . I enjoy these posts!

And you will be able to enjoy them as they'll simply be in another section focused on topics such as this and not within TRF's General discussion.

Obviously the topic(s) are so popular nowadays that it merits its own section imho.

[LndLord]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

I asked for this in November and that's when it first started now this whole forum is based about pricing and how i cant get this watch.

[singe89]

The biggest problem I see is that if in fact 9 out of 10 transactions are actually B2B with wholesalers then the demand from the end consumer isn't really there to start with. If the market softens will all of these small business grey dealers be able to hold inventory to help keep prices up or will they be forced to sell at lower prices?

Rolex, AP and Patek have controlled this in the primary market but don't have control of the secondary market and if these wholesale gray dealers are forced to sell off inventory at lower prices then it could do exactly what these manufactures have tried to prevent.

[SUPERDOC]

Originally Posted by singe89

The biggest problem I see is that if in fact 9 out of 10 transactions are actually B2B with wholesalers then the demand from the end consumer isn't really there to start with. If the market softens will all of these small business grey dealers be able to hold inventory to help keep prices up or will they be forced to sell at lower prices?

Rolex, AP and Patek have controlled this in the primary market but don't have control of the secondary market and if these wholesale gray dealers are forced to sell off inventory at lower prices then it could do exactly what these manufactures have tried to prevent.

The B-to-B sales is something that I find very interesting - I think the "pump and dump" is being orchestrated by the grey market - you have to wonder how many are getting to the end consumer at these prices...if at all..

some of the "sold" watches in the FS could be shill sales - or non-sales then relisted with the effort to give the impression that they are selling, and make you think that you may "miss out" if you don't jump at this one...

the internet and social media have driven the market, and Grey dealers were the first to manipulate social media / forums/ internet - leaving brands themselves struggling to establish online presence. So the proficient Greys are well positioned to drive up the Hype... If you don't think taht grey dealers are operating under a variety of accounts, you are kidding yourself...

One of the things that these models have offered was "social currency" aka "bragging rights" with a world forum to which you can now brag... instead of previously - you would buy a watch and exactly 0 people you know would care... but what I'm seeing now, is every other IG post, 'incoming' thread, and FS thread is one of these "hot Models"

The familiarity and frequency is making them less valuable as "social currency".. people who are buying without real desire, and only with the idea to "turn a quick profit" might get nervous when something that they couldn't afford doesn't immediately sell... you can convince yourself that this BLNR could sell for 20k because of the istings on Chrono24, but good luck adding your sale to the pile (which was pointed out earlier include hundreds of this same model)

furthermore, people looking to brag might find it less worth bragging about when "everyone" seems to have them... and more stories get out about people getting them at their AD at retail (many times with little-no effort) will make people less willing to admit to paying premiums...or find it less brag-worthy...

I don't think that these prices are the new normal ... when there is too much of a discrepancy between asking price and intrinsic value, and whenever FOMO is a factor, it is a bubble doomed to burst.


I do find the speculation threads to be fairly interesting and entertaining lately ... but as a watch collector and genuine lover of watches, I fear for the aftermath... You can see the industry starting to react and now start to focus strategy on secondary market value (with more endless limited editions) that I worry that more budget will be diverted to marketing, and less to actual watch making research and development.

when all Rolex has to do is change half of a bezel colour, and people lose their shit... who the hell needs innovation, hand decorated movements, perpetual calendars, enhanced precision, longer power reserves, guilloche, and repetition de minutes?

[enjoythemusic]

Originally Posted by LndLord

I asked for this in November and that's when it first started now this whole forum is based about pricing and how i cant get this watch.

Thanks and yes, perhaps it is a bit overdue yet am sure the mods / admin are fluid enough to make the move now with a new board for those topics, which imho do not fall under General as TRF desperately needs a section for those other discussions as well. A win-win for all :)

[Strummer25]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Thanks and yes, perhaps it is a bit overdue yet am sure the mods / admin are fluid enough to make the move now with a new board for those topics, which imho do not fall under General as TRF desperately needs a section for those other discussions as well. A win-win for all :)

Good point well made. Can we have another section for is it safe to wear my Rolex in xxxx (insert city/country) or doing xxx (insert activity - gardening, going to the beach, taking a shower etc)

[ALF61]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Thanks and yes, perhaps it is a bit overdue yet am sure the mods / admin are fluid enough to make the move now with a new board for those topics, which imho do not fall under General as TRF desperately needs a section for those other discussions as well. A win-win for all :)

If they do this, the forum will become very BORING !

[RobearH]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

Thanks and yes, perhaps it is a bit overdue yet am sure the mods / admin are fluid enough to make the move now with a new board for those topics, which imho do not fall under General as TRF desperately needs a section for those other discussions as well. A win-win for all :)

Seeings how the Mods closed your two threads on the topic in the Open Discussion Forum I would say for an almost certainty this will not happen! JAT

[gabbysplace]

Originally Posted by enjoythemusic

CAN WE PLEASE HAVE A SEPARATE SECTION FOR PRICING / SPECULATION / ETC.

PLEASE

Ha! That never occurred to me, but given all the posts, it's a good idea.