The long term “value” of a DJ

[logo]

Lots of talk these days about what Rolex will hold value the best, and some even saying a DJ will lose value. Well, if we’re talking about an immediate flip then yes that may be - sort of like breaking a mortgage early. But also important to consider that if you hold onto it long enough, Rolex MSRP increases will dictate what your watch is worth, and since these are only likely to rise there’s no reason a DJ should “lose value” over the long run. Look at the datejust watches from the 80s and 90s - these currently sell far below today’s MSRP for a DJ, but well above the MSRP from the time they were bought. So in fact there’s no financial loss at all and possibly even net gain. Sure, not professional model level, but still.

Just an interesting thought that come up the other day when chatting with someone with a 30 year old datejust. Kind of obvious but not something that’s routinely reminded on here. Here’s a link to rough estimate Rolex MSRP trends over the years: https://blog.crownandcaliber.com/rol...-watch-prices/

Anyways, not that I really care since I have no intention of ever selling my watch and since I purchased a DJ in the first place because I liked it best rather than value, but an interesting consideration when it comes to Rolex nonetheless. Funny, no matter whatever watch comes to my mind as the flavour of the day or week, I still think there’s none I’d rather have than my TT DJ.

[logo]

And of course the obligatory photo

[faz]

Originally Posted by logo

And of course the obligatory photo

Beautiful watch. Last night my wife caught the old movie 'Pretty Woman' on one of the channels and we watched a bit of it. In it, Richard Gere was wearing a similar watch as a multi-millionaire big shot.

I did a quick search on Google now and came across this.... looks like the watch of choice for many big shots around! https://www.rolexmagazine.com/2009/0...-datejust.html

[sambb]

It is interesting that people say that the watches sell at the same price today as the 90s, and that means they didnt lose value.

With inflation, $3000 dollars in 1990 is worth far less than $3000 now. Inflation changes it. So if you sell at same price, you are losing value for sure.

[daOnlyBG]

Originally Posted by sambb

It is interesting that people say that the watches sell at the same price today as the 90s, and that means they didnt lose value.

With inflation, $3000 dollars in 1990 is worth far less than $3000 now. Inflation changes it. So if you sell at same price, you are losing value for sure.

And we haven't even mentioned opportunity cost!

[Tools]

I think the point with a Rolex is that they are almost always a marketable commodity.

Try to sell a 20 year old Seiko, Fossil, Tag, or Timex.

[logo]

Originally Posted by Tools

I think the point with a Rolex is that they are almost always a marketable commodity.

Try to sell a 20 year old Seiko, Fossil, Tag, or Timex.

That is exactly my point, and my only point. Thank you for taking the time to read and consider my post in full and not nit-pick isolated sentences of my posts while making reference to a hypothetical stock market time machine.

#DJ4life

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by logo

But also important to consider that if you hold onto it long enough, Rolex MSRP increases will dictate what your watch is worth, and since these are only likely to rise there’s no reason a DJ should “lose value” over the long run. Look at the datejust watches from the 80s and 90s - these currently sell far below today’s MSRP for a DJ, but well above the MSRP from the time they were bought. So in fact there’s no financial loss at all and possibly even net gain.

Ever heard of inflation? Do you get payed the same number of $ now as you got in the 80s and 90s? I sure hope not. Today's MSRP for a DJ accurately reflects what a new DJ is worth today. An old DJ is worth less than a new one, for obvious reasons.

The dow jones was at about 4500 in 1990 now it is around 25000. Tell me you did not lose money by choosing to buy a DJ in 1990 instead of investing in stocks. That would be true if a DJ purchased for $2000 in 1990 and was now able to be sold for $11000.

[logo]

Originally Posted by Seibei

Ever heard of inflation? Do you get payed the same number of $ now as you got in the 80s and 90s? I sure hope not. Today's MSRP for a DJ accurately reflects what a new DJ is worth today. An old DJ is worth less than a new one, for obvious reasons.

The dow jones was at about 4500 in 1990 now it is around 25000. Tell me you did not lose money by choosing to buy a DJ in 1990 instead of investing in stocks. That would be true if a DJ purchased for $2000 in 1990 and was now able to be sold for $11000.

No, sorry - I’ve been living under a rock so no idea about inflation. Seriously though, (a) that wasn’t the central thesis of my post - I don’t care about the resale value of my DJ, (b) inflation on $2000 USD in 1990 is about $4000 by today’s dollar, which a 1990s DJ can sell for, (c) today’s Rolex prices are not higher than 1990 due to inflation alone, and (d) the Dow Jones example is meaningless because it’s obvious there are better ways to invest money for profitable returns than watches.

Not suggesting the DJ as an investment by any means, just highlighting I bought it because I like it and in the grand scheme it’s not as though you’re burning money.

[123Blueface]

Originally Posted by logo

Not suggesting the DJ as an investment by any means, just highlighting I bought it because I like it and in the grand scheme it’s not as though you’re burning money.

Not that it’s a terrible thing because you have gotten use out of it but you are burning money. In all likelihood, if you were to sell it, it would be to a dealer, where you would get 50% or less. After that, factor in inflation.........

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by logo

No, sorry - I’ve been living under a rock so no idea about inflation. Seriously though, (a) that wasn’t the central thesis of my post - I don’t care about the resale value of my DJ, (b) inflation on $2000 USD in 1990 is about $4000 by today’s dollar, which a 1990s DJ can sell for, (c) today’s Rolex prices are not higher than 1990 due to inflation alone, and (d) the Dow Jones example is meaningless because it’s obvious there are better ways to invest money for profitable returns than watches.

Not suggesting the DJ as an investment by any means, just highlighting I bought it because I like it and in the grand scheme it’s not as though you’re burning money.

Really? A conservative estimate on what it would have cost to service the watch from 1990 till now is about $2000. That leaves you with $2000. If you had put your money into the stock market you should be ahead by about $22000. By my calculation you just burned 20k.

On the other hand, who cares? I don't buy watches to make money and I don't care if I lose some. I keep it real. No need to justify your watch purchases and pretend they don't cost money.

[J.P.Jones]

Anyone interested in a modern watch as an investment, should consider buying an index mutual fund. How much was a MSRP of a TT DJ 30 years ago, like $2,500? If a working stiff, like me, had that much to invest in the Dow Jones instead of a DJ in 1989, I'd probably have made $25,000 now. Something to think about...

[Sub Capt.]

Originally Posted by J.P.Jones

Anyone interested in a modern watch as an investment, should consider buying an index mutual fund. How much was a MSRP of a TT DJ 30 years ago, like $2,500? If a working stiff, like me, had that much to invest in the Dow Jones instead of a DJ in 1989, I'd probably have made $25,000 now. Something to think about...

OMG thank you!! Watch “Investment”... keep telling your wife that...

[Bizcut1]

Originally Posted by Sub Capt.

OMG thank you!! Watch “Investment”... keep telling your wife that...

Of course, that's SOP around here...my wife loves our "investments."

[dkast85]

Originally Posted by J.P.Jones

Anyone interested in a modern watch as an investment, should consider buying an index mutual fund. How much was a MSRP of a TT DJ 30 years ago, like $2,500? If a working stiff, like me, had that much to invest in the Dow Jones instead of a DJ in 1989, I'd probably have made $25,000 now. Something to think about...

yeah i was going to post exactly this.

The notion that one of these watches will “make you money” is likely not true. Even if it goes up and you sell it for $1000 (inflation adj) more than you bought it for. Did you really win? Let’s say that was a period of 20 years? Okay so you made 50 dollars a years on that watch. So? Just invest that money in a mutual fund. Over that period of time you will make way more than 1000 bucks (inflation adj).

You buy a watch because you enjoy it. If you sell it 50 years from now and it is a treasure that makes you serious cash. Good for you. But don’t expect that to happen.

Lastly, one thing people should know about collecting. You cannot predict what anything will be worth in 50-100 years. Something that is hot hot hot right now (BLNR, green sub) is something that everyone grabbed early. They took very good care of it and Rolex decided to make a large amount of them to meet the demand. In 50 years those watches will be in pristine condition and they will be everywhere because everyone had the same thought.

But let’s say there is a watch that nobody really likes right now. It’s easy to get. If you want one you can buy it for 5000 dollars less than retail. Then rolex decides to discontinue it. 25 years pass and a president or a famous actor is seen wearing this watch. He calls it his favorite watch and his only watch. All of a sudden that watch is now a hot commodity. Problem is it was discontinued and the few people that do have them did not take great care of them. They lost the papers, they never got it properly serviced. They may have given it to a family member and that family member may have removed the bracelet and lost said bracelet. But everyone wants that watch. Problem is they can’t find any in pristine condition. That’s the watch that will be worth a boat load.

[jimcameron]

Of course you're burning money. In exchange for enjoying a very nice watch. Toss a couple of services into your watch, annual insurance, and then finding out what a reseller will give you for it, inflation, and you will be in the hole. Unless of course, your watch gets seriously damaged, stolen, cut in half in a divorce, or drops even more out of favor by the fan boys.

You can talk yourself into anything. If you're worried about the $$ don't buy it.

[iliketime]

You lose money walking out the door from the ad, tt datejusts from the 1980s do still go for around $2500, at least the last one I bought did, it had box and papers too.

[enjoythemusic]

Wife loves her Franken DJ36 with pink MOP dial and bling. Looks great on her wrist and is sooo the 'her' or Rolex's.

Happy Wife = Priceless :)

[Oxfordian]

I buy my watches to wear and to hopefully pass on to my children and maybe grandchildren, whether they will want them is difficult to guess, I am certainly not worried if the watches go up or down in value as to me they are going to be family heirlooms.

If my heirs want to sell them that will be their choice as I won't be around to see if the net price rose or fell.

[Dougiebaby]

I don’t really understand why so many try to compare Rolex purchases with investing. That really is quite “extreme.”

Using that “logic“ one could easily say, if I just reduced my grocery monthly budget I could put those funds in an index fund and over 25 years I could have an extra $___ in my bank account.

We all purchased things that we need/enjoy from clothing, to entertainment, to watches.

I don’t look at clothing purchased as investments. But if I tried to sell my clothes 25 years from now, they are worthless. I did however sell my DJ36 purchased new in 1984 for $975 24 years later (2008) for $1,750. Interestingly, when sold it did not work, needed servicing and a new crown.

I’m sure when one calculates the effect of inflation from 1984 that original $975 may be valued higher than the $1,750 sales price in 2008 ... but I wore and enjoyed that watch for 24 years and was elated when the dealer offered me $1,750 for a watch I was not willing to pay for repairs (over $900) and put those funds towards a brand new watch.

Summary of story ... yes the Datejust seems to do very well, value wise in my mind, over time.

Here’s said watch...





Here’s my new (3 weeks old) DJ41 I purchased from my AD for 10% off minus the $150 cash back I received by purchasing on my signature Visa card (total price of $6,550 - I didn’t pay sales tax either)...






According to Chrono24, used DJ41s are trading above the $7,450 msrp...





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[othertbone]

Originally Posted by logo

Lots of talk these days about what Rolex will hold value the best, and some even saying a DJ will lose value. Well, if we’re talking about an immediate flip then yes that may be - sort of like breaking a mortgage early. But also important to consider that if you hold onto it long enough, Rolex MSRP increases will dictate what your watch is worth, and since these are only likely to rise there’s no reason a DJ should “lose value” over the long run. Look at the datejust watches from the 80s and 90s - these currently sell far below today’s MSRP for a DJ, but well above the MSRP from the time they were bought. So in fact there’s no financial loss at all and possibly even net gain. Sure, not professional model level, but still.

Just an interesting thought that come up the other day when chatting with someone with a 30 year old datejust. Kind of obvious but not something that’s routinely reminded on here. Here’s a link to rough estimate Rolex MSRP trends over the years: https://blog.crownandcaliber.com/rol...-watch-prices/

Anyways, not that I really care since I have no intention of ever selling my watch and since I purchased a DJ in the first place because I liked it best rather than value, but an interesting consideration when it comes to Rolex nonetheless. Funny, no matter whatever watch comes to my mind as the flavour of the day or week, I still think there’s none I’d rather have than my TT DJ.

Yep I agree, it will hold it's value after 30-40 years

[kieselguhr]

A lot of good advice being given in this thread. I consider investments that actually continually produce some form of return an asset. An investment that is costing you money or staying idle is a liability. Unless you are an established watch trader without a significant overhead cost on your business, watches are awful investments.

[locutus49]

I read these articles about young people who are poor (their own term) because they can't find good jobs, so they want to become entrepreneurs by flipping real estate, watches, etc.

The thing is, if it were that easy to make money by flipping watches everyone would be doing it. Investing in watches is like investing in the stock market: most people lose money but they don't talk about their losses, only their gains.

Best of luck to those who want to profit in the watch game. You are smarter than me.

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

A lot of good advice being given in this thread. I consider investments that actually continually produce some form of return an asset. An investment that is costing you money or staying idle is a liability. Unless you are an established watch trader without a significant overhead cost on your business, watches are awful investments.

[envuks]

Am I think only one who thinks breaking even on a watch you wore for many years is AWESOME?... I remember when I really got into this hobby in the early 2000s, I felt it was good to lose 20% of the purchase price after wearing the watch awhile and then selling it. I just considered that the cost of the hobby (which seems reasonable since people send all kinds of money on funny hobbies).

[Laszlo]

A Rolex can get you out of trouble. It has real value. No doubt.

[Brew]

Love the watch! And I'm glad you're pleased with your, "investment." I know I burned a couple a chunks of cash for mine. I won't be seeing that money again, hopefully.

[AF_Rob]

The value of my 40-year-old datejust has jumped 50% since I bought it. It’s still one of my lesser expensive pieces, but still.


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[ADW91]

Why worry about potential gain in value? Live in the now and enjoy your incredible timepiece.