Will the AP hype die like Hublot or Panerai?

[bigfatpanda]

Hi guys!

I’ve been eyeing an AP for a while now... the royal oak 15450 or 15500 with the blue dial or the offshore diver. Real close to pulling the trigger on the diver.

I have 2 rolexes now. The Batman and the Bluesy. So the AP would complement those 2 well.

Do you guys think the value of AP will go down and plummet like Hublot or Panerai did?

What’s your thoughts?

[macrowatch]

I think the new strategy (going boutique with more control over the brand experience) is working well for AP. So unlikely to experience a Panerai moment if the current CEO is still in charge.

At the same time, it's likely that when the watch craze passes for the next fad, it will look a lot again like 2016 with premiums gone but relatively stable with a hair cut.

Seems like lots of blue in the collection there though. Maybe white panda ROC would give a nice pop?

[KBM]

This too shall pass.

[ap1]

AP is nothing like those two brands you mentioned

[danny1305]

Originally Posted by ap1

AP is nothing like those two brands you mentioned

This is most accurate

[Token74]

Originally Posted by ap1

AP is nothing like those two brands you mentioned

This


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by Token74

This


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Agree.

And I like both those brands. But hard to compare.

[RolyMoly]

Originally Posted by Token74

This


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This.

[masterserg]

Are you really putting those 3 in the same sentence?

[Vipes]

Hype may die down but I don’t think AP will be like Hublot and Panerai. The RO is a classic just like the Sub. Agree w/ macrowatch’s assessment.

[singe89]

Originally Posted by masterserg

Are you really putting those 3 in the same sentence?

This...

You could ask the same about Rolex or Patek but shouldn't compare those to Hublot or Panerai either.

Independent brands that control the supply chain should do much better over the long term. AP is positioning to have full control by being boutique sold and even getting into the secondary market to better control pricing and customer experience. Like any company though buy the right models at the right price and that's the best you can hope for in terms of long term value retention.

[SMD]

Yes. They will plummet. Best to stick to batmans and batgirls and hulks.

[nycpassat]

Originally Posted by SMD

Yes. They will plummet. Best to stick to batmans and batgirls and hulks.

This. And leave the silly nicknames at the door

[RHIII]

Originally Posted by SMD

Yes. They will plummet. Best to stick to batmans and batgirls and hulks.

love it


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[AK797]

The AP hype is very mild compared to Rolex and PP and is just overflow from them, VC is also undergoing a renaissance, so if global conditions change then we may revert back to pre-hype era, altho with AP having a tight grip on distribution they can prevent any huge reversal.

[bigfatpanda]

I forgot to add Breitling used to be hot aa while back as well. Now they go for half off...

[NYG1121]

Never say never. Value and trends are impossible to predict. Hence enjoy it regardless of future value. Don’t forget, AP was trading at nearly half it’s retail value for some watches merely 3 years ago

[bigfatpanda]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Never say never. Value and trends are impossible to predict. Hence enjoy it regardless of future value. Don’t forget, AP was trading at nearly half it’s retail value for some watches merely 3 years ago

Wow really? Even the royal oak line?

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by bigfatpanda

Wow really? Even the royal oak line?

Yes. You could’ve scooped up a 15300/15400 RO for 12-13k. 15202 was always a little higher but still less around or less than MSRP

[NYG1121]

I dont think it will last. You can’t convince me that the same 15450 is now suddenly “worth” 20k without any upgrades to justify the massive increase. The ROC always had MSRPs in the 20s and just now they are able to actually command similar values in the grey market. I’m not sure if it will hold but lets see. 38mm steel chrono for 27k still seems too high to me

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Yes. You could’ve scooped up a 15300/15400 RO for 12-13k. 15202 was always a little higher but still less around or less than MSRP

Come on... They went new at 12-13k euro.

They dipped (and that's really it) to 11-12k euro and when they got discontinued, the new model and everything and only then they went up to 20-25k and more, and this was all 2018-2019.


The 15300 is the only watch I regret buying and I actually tracked throughout, from new to this.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by NYG1121

Yes. You could’ve scooped up a 15300/15400 RO for 12-13k. 15202 was always a little higher but still less around or less than MSRP

That was only 25% off relative to retail. I negotiated 25% in NYC on a 15400 and it was roughly 13300.

AP is nothing like hublot or panerai.

[NYG1121]

Originally Posted by GB-man

That was only 25% off relative to retail. I negotiated 25% in NYC on a 15400 and it was roughly 13300.

AP is nothing like hublot or panerai.

Ya that’s the point. Think about this being not that long ago

[AshAP]

Originally Posted by bigfatpanda

Wow really? Even the royal oak line?

I don’t think this is correct, I’ve been buying APs for over 15 years and I haven’t seen them trading at 50% off at any period during that time. That said I’m in the U.K. and can’t comment on what the position might have been in other regions over the same period.


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[AK797]

Originally Posted by AshAP

I don’t think this is correct, I’ve been buying APs for over 15 years and I haven’t seen them trading at 50% off at any period during that time. That said I’m in the U.K. and can’t comment on what the position might have been in other regions over the same period.


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Legit was around 30%, 50% was with the popular Isle of Wight guy who was illegally importing them from US and went to jail.

[Burlington]

Don’t be too driven by the resale value - just buy what you like and will enjoy wearing !

They are all great pieces which you mention.

[bigfatpanda]

Originally Posted by Burlington

Don’t be too driven by the resale value - just buy what you like and will enjoy wearing !

They are all great pieces which you mention.

Of course easy to say if you pay $20k for watch n it might be worth $12k later. I would be pissed

[maciej]

Originally Posted by bigfatpanda

Of course easy to say if you pay $20k for watch n it might be worth $12k later. I would be pissed

Something is only worth what you're willing to pay for it, if you felt that it was worth $20k, then that's all that matters. If resale value matters that much, is a person really purchasing it because they want it and love it, or because they want to do it as a status symbol?

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by bigfatpanda

Do you guys think the value of AP will go down and plummet like Hublot or Panerai did?

What’s your thoughts?

Maybe?

When do you plan to sell?

[EdwardC]

I don't have a crystal ball, but I wouldn't categorize these 3 brands together today.

Things can change in the future. In 50s no one knows Rolex can be this big. Longines used to be one of the most prestigious brands.

Buy what you want and it's always right for you.