Is demand real?

[BillA]

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.

I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.

[fskywalker]

Well that may mean the waiting lists are real at some AD’s, don’t think that has to do with the demand not being real.


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[Hollie_Rollie]

The demand is real. The shortage is over exaggerated imo. This due to back door deals at ADs and greys buying stock then reselling the hot models in limited quantities at laughable prices.

But I have noticed quite a few more incomings of the newer models than in years past after new releases.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

The demand is real. The shortage is over exaggerated imo.

This x100

They created a ‘this is so hot it’s sold out everywhere‘ trend without even funneling stock that much. It’s absolute genius

[Polarexplorerii]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

The demand is real. The shortage is over exaggerated imo. This due to back door deals at ADs and greys buying stock then reselling the hot models in limited quantities at laughable prices.

But I have noticed quite a few more incomings of the newer models than in years past after new releases.

I agree

[Maxy]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

But I have noticed quite a few more incomings of the newer models than in years past after new releases.

The reason is unlike every year where watches are announced in March and then sent to ADs after few months but this year as no Baselworld, Covid; watches were first sent to ADs and then announced on Sep 1. You could get watch in couple of days unlike previous years!

[2001jesper]

No one knows. But neither ADs nor Greys have any incentive to let you think otherwise

[1William]

I do not believe that the random incoming and I got lucky threads are reflective of the market. You can not typically walk into an AD and buy any hot sports model. Do people get the call or find an AD that comes out from the safe with a hot watch, sure. Very much the exception and not the rule.

[Bladeshot]

Originally Posted by 1William

I do not believe that the random incoming and I got lucky threads are reflective of the market. You can not typically walk into an AD and buy any hot sports model. Do people get the call or find an AD that comes out from the safe with a hot watch, sure. Very much the exception and not the rule.

Agree. Demand is real. Supply will not increase in a meaningful way.

As much as we’d like to think the tide will turn, and pieces will become more available (to us) at ADs, only time will tell. I doubt there will be a noticeable change anytime in the next few years, because supply will not increase and sellers want to maximize profit (even ADs).

[Calatrava r]

The Rolex market is over when it is. That will be, when it isn't cool to wear one and the big spenders have moved on to new toys. A total production of one million watches in a world of billions of people is really nothing, so good economy or bad, the Rolex market will be brisk and very tight until attitude and style moves elsewhere.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

The Rolex market is over when it is. That will be, when it isn't cool to wear one and the big spenders have moved on to new toys. A total production of one million watches in a world of billions of people is really nothing, so good economy or bad, the Rolex market will be brisk and very tight until attitude and style moves elsewhere.

And how many people in that billions can actually afford a Rolex? Now how many remaining actually have a desire to own what many would claim to be a completely outdated, useless tool that a phone gives for free?

I’m as big of a watch nerd as any, but people grossly over estimate how ‘large’ the luxury watch market buying group really is.

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by dmash

And how many people in that billions can actually afford a Rolex? Now how many remaining actually have a desire to own what many would claim to be a completely outdated, useless tool that a phone gives for free?

I’m as big of a watch nerd as any, but people grossly over estimate how ‘large’ the luxury watch market buying group really is.

Absolutely

[Robf52]

Originally Posted by 1William

I do not believe that the random incoming and I got lucky threads are reflective of the market. You can not typically walk into an AD and buy any hot sports model. Do people get the call or find an AD that comes out from the safe with a hot watch, sure. Very much the exception and not the rule.

This.

[JonaG]

Just looking at the “sold out” notices on Rolex at a dealer’s site Ive bought 5 watches from in the past tells me something’s going on. Demand is real. All Hulks, 5 digit kermits gone. Even a YM rhodium recently put up has sold for 3k over list. Madness. I guess the excitement has driven many to post their new incomings here but I feel when the first round of clients have been met then demand will hike up further...yikes.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.

I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.

I think the demand is real but I hope you’re right to whatever degree you can be. You would think Rolex as a manufacturer might be capable of figuring out how to fix what’s wrong at least by a small percentage?!

[scooba]

I think Demand is real ,I just collected a new 41mm green sub and asked to look at the new oyster perpetual models with the new dials they had around ten allocated and all are sold and unlikely to have stock till 2021

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by garyk

I think the demand is real but I hope you’re right to whatever degree you can be. You would think Rolex as a manufacturer might be capable of figuring out how to fix what’s wrong at least by a small percentage?!

I believe it could absolutely be fixed but i don’t know that as a brand, they have a big incentive to fix it. If everyone can get anything they want, outside of say a Daytona, the demand will drop and people will move on. People love what they can’t have. They love talking about their stainless Rolex being hard to get.

This forum is a small subset of watch wearers. I believe Rolex main business is still the guy or gal that saves, buys one watch, and wears it forever. If that person wanted a GMT for example and is on a wait list of 2 years, they might just buy something else, maybe a DJ or an OP. Now you have someone that could come back for the one they really want once their number is called.


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[Casey VP-26]

Could be, The supply is getting better

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Casey VP-26

Could be, The supply is getting better

Good point. Maybe supply is better.

[absin2]

Originally Posted by Casey VP-26

Could be, The supply is getting better

I do think so too, a better supply could be the result.

[Chester01]

Demand has dropped off, its statistically impossible for what has happened in the world to have not had some impact. It’s math folks. That said, there was never a major demand issue, simply supply pinched off by the literal thousands of gray market sellers. Like I have said many times, if you can have any watch in the Rolex catalog by Monday morning, that’s not excessive demand or that the watch is rare. A Picasso is rare, in that there are only so many. Any gray dealer and their uncle has a Daytona. What’s that tell you?

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Any gray dealer and their uncle has a Daytona. What’s that tell you?

Used dealer and his uncle's asking prices are the best indicators of demand vs supply .

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Used dealer and his uncle's asking prices are the best indicators of demand vs supply .

Not really. Once the pinched supply gets in the hands of the gray market they can charge what they want. Plenty of them available and I have seen GMT sitting for a while. Don’t confuse those that have the disposable income and want to buy now (a smaller percent of Rolex owners and WIS community) versus the general public that makes up a bulk of their buyers that come in and buy that one great watch for a special event that they will have for life.


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[legacy404]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Not really. Once the pinched supply gets in the hands of the gray market they can charge what they want. Plenty of them available and I have seen GMT sitting for a while. Don’t confuse those that have the disposable income and want to buy now (a smaller percent of Rolex owners and WIS community) versus the general public that makes up a bulk of their buyers that come in and buy that one great watch for a special event that they will have for life.


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Eventually even the greys have to pay bills. I'm sure they have loans of some form out on their inventory.

Its possible AD's are now allocating more to randoms not on waitlists just walking in to stifle greys. There is a high likelihood that someone who can't buy a piece from an AD that visit will eventually just go online and buy there. And that guy may not ever be a return customer. Going through a waitlist can be a tedious task, when you know the guy that just walked in is ready to buy.

A smart AD would figure out that continuously pawning off your inventory to greys can hurt them in the long run.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by legacy404

Eventually even the greys have to pay bills. I'm sure they have loans of some form out on their inventory.

Its possible AD's are now allocating more to randoms not on waitlists just walking in to stifle greys. There is a high likelihood that someone who can't buy a piece from an AD that visit will eventually just go online and buy there. And that guy may not ever be a return customer. Going through a waitlist can be a tedious task, when you know the guy that just walked in is ready to buy.

A smart AD would figure out that continuously pawning off your inventory to greys can hurt them in the long run.


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You make good points. However it’s also likely that the massive recession has caused some to hold back and save their beans for what ever comes next.


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[UK_]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Demand has dropped off, its statistically impossible for what has happened in the world to have not had some impact. It’s math folks. That said, there was never a major demand issue, simply supply pinched off by the literal thousands of gray market sellers. Like I have said many times, if you can have any watch in the Rolex catalog by Monday morning, that’s not excessive demand or that the watch is rare. A Picasso is rare, in that there are only so many. Any gray dealer and their uncle has a Daytona. What’s that tell you?

That the price is a function of supply and demand, and rare is relative.

Compared to the amount of people who want a Hulk, there is no where enough free supply for an a market price of £7k.

Grey dealers are not making the market, they are participating in the market like me and you, the balance of supply (Rolex ADs) and Demand (end buyers who want a Hulk) make the market, and the price.


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[Chester01]

Originally Posted by UK_

That the price is a function of supply and demand, and rare is relative.

Compared to the amount of people who want a Hulk, there is no where enough free supply for an a market price of £7k.

Grey dealers are not making the market, they are participating in the market like me and you, the balance of supply (Rolex ADs) and Demand (end buyers who want a Hulk) make the market, and the price.


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Lol are you serious. Gray is siphoning off supply. If not for the gray market the AD’s would have hundreds of thousands of SS models available and instead the gray has snapped them up, and unlike the AD can’t overcharge. Listen, I have been in the Rolex game since the 80’s and have always purchased my Rolex at AD’s and can recall walking in and buying what I wanted and seeing 3/4 gmt or subs. As gray market increased the amount of SS watches went down. It’s not rocket science here people


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[dmash]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol are you serious. Gray is siphoning off supply. If not for the gray market the AD’s would have hundreds of thousands of SS models available and instead the gray has snapped them up, and unlike the AD can’t overcharge. Listen, I have been in the Rolex game since the 80’s and have always purchased my Rolex at AD’s and can recall walking in and buying what I wanted and seeing 3/4 gmt or subs. As gray market increased the amount of SS watches went down. It’s not rocket science here people


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Peep eBay user IDs and new business name creations on any medium which allows selling. In the past 2-3 years I’ve seen the amount of ‘watch’ or ‘time’ business names increase probably 10 fold. It’s insane lol. Everybody thinks they’re a professional re-seller right now, and it’s working well, can’t knock it. When tides turn and you’re holding stock depreciating monthly though, they’ll unfortunately go under quickly if not properly hedged.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by dmash

Peep eBay user IDs and new business name creations on any medium which allows selling. In the past 2-3 years I’ve seen the amount of ‘watch’ or ‘time’ business names increase probably 10 fold. It’s insane lol. Everybody thinks they’re a professional re-seller right now, and it’s working well, can’t knock it. When tides turn and you’re holding stock depreciating monthly though, they’ll unfortunately go under quickly if not properly hedged.

It would be very interesting to see what the market looked like if the professional and amateur flippers / traders were removed from the equation.

I don't doubt for one minute that the waitlists are made up of a large proportion of flippers. Unfortunately, that is still "demand" as, without another buyer willing to pay a premium, they wouldn't be doing it.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol are you serious. Gray is siphoning off supply. If not for the gray market the AD’s would have hundreds of thousands of SS models available and instead the gray has snapped them up, and unlike the AD can’t overcharge. Listen, I have been in the Rolex game since the 80’s and have always purchased my Rolex at AD’s and can recall walking in and buying what I wanted and seeing 3/4 gmt or subs. As gray market increased the amount of SS watches went down. It’s not rocket science here people


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How are greys siphoning off supply?

Supply is set by the Rolex factory. There is only so many SS GMTs to go around, more people want them than is produced. Therefore, the market sets the price, not the grey dealers who are buying of flippers.

Since the 80s, the middle classes in Europe, North America and especially Asia have ballooned. Many, many more people want and can afford a Rolex.

And demand can’t just be dealers buying of dealers, it doesn’t fake long for that perpetual motion machine to run out of motion.

This is exactly how Rolex want things - exclusive, restricted access product with a lot of FOMO keeling resale values high.

And truth be told - the customers that Rolex want, they probably prefer it this way too.


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