The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Forum > General Topics > Open Discussion Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 4 December 2020, 02:02 AM   #1
Blansky
2024 Pledge Member
 
Blansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: swmnpoolsmovie*
Posts: 9,809
Oil vs electric....an interesting article

Please don't get political, but this could be an interesting preview of post a Covid world.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...ign=pockethits
__________________
OlllllllO
Blansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 03:34 AM   #2
MILGAUSS88
"TRF" Member
 
MILGAUSS88's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2014
Location: mississippi river
Posts: 3,194
I think the author wrote the obit for oil a little to early.
I would be willing to bet there will be a boom in oil use after the vaccine is distributed.
MILGAUSS88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 03:49 AM   #3
Laszlo
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
Laszlo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: San Francisco, CA
Watch: Date & No Date
Posts: 10,868
Do you guys remember peak oil. The frenzy and fear, the insane speculation. Wasn’t that about 10-years ago?
__________________
"You might as well question why we breathe. If we stop breathing, we'll die. If we stop fighting our enemies, the world will die."

Paul Henreid as Victor Laszlo in Casablanca
Laszlo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 03:51 AM   #4
Paul7
Banned
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Location: New Mexico
Posts: 898
The only oil shortage will be man made.
Paul7 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 04:00 AM   #5
GB-man
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
GB-man's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: USA
Watch: addiction issues
Posts: 37,355
Quote:
Originally Posted by Laszlo View Post
Do you guys remember peak oil. The frenzy and fear, the insane speculation. Wasn’t that about 10-years ago?

Yep I wrote a paper on it in undergrad for some bs class. I think it was around 2007 or thereabouts.
__________________
GB-man is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 04:09 AM   #6
brandrea
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
brandrea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 78,132
We’ve got about 170 billion barrels to sell you if we could get some pipe laid

Sorry, that wasn’t meant to be political, just stating the obvious
brandrea is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 04:47 AM   #7
tudorbaja27
"TRF" Member
 
tudorbaja27's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Miami, FL
Watch: Tudor & Cartier
Posts: 2,499
Quote:
Originally Posted by brandrea View Post
We’ve got about 170 billion barrels to sell you if we could get some pipe laid

Sorry, that wasn’t meant to be political, just stating the obvious

indeed
__________________
"Chi ha paura muore ogni giorno, chi non ha paura muore una volta sola" - Paolo Borsellino
tudorbaja27 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 6 December 2020, 10:27 PM   #8
superdog
2024 Pledge Member
 
superdog's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Real Name: Seth
Location: nj
Watch: Omega
Posts: 24,834
Quote:
Originally Posted by brandrea View Post
We’ve got about 170 billion barrels to sell you if we could get some pipe laid

Sorry, that wasn’t meant to be political, just stating the obvious
I thought it was a decent joke.
__________________
If happiness is a state of mind, why look anywhere else for it?

IG: gsmotorclub
IG: thesawcollection

(Both mostly just car stuff)
superdog is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 04:36 AM   #9
bondtoys
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: World
Watch: 16750
Posts: 2,733
I have 2 EVs and absolutely love them - particularly the Mini SE!

Thinking about selling the Porsche....
bondtoys is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 06:17 AM   #10
TheVTCGuy
Banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Real Name: Paul
Location: San Diego
Watch: 126619LB
Posts: 21,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by bondtoys View Post
I have 2 EVs and absolutely love them - particularly the Mini SE!

Thinking about selling the Porsche....
I am on my second consecutive hybrid, but my next car will be EV.
TheVTCGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 06:19 AM   #11
TheVTCGuy
Banned
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Real Name: Paul
Location: San Diego
Watch: 126619LB
Posts: 21,540
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy View Post
I am on my second consecutive hybrid, but my next car will be EV.
Oh, and I forgot to mention the at Danny83 is going to get me a deal around 70% off of MSRP on a top of the line Luxury EV. Maybe 75
TheVTCGuy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 4 December 2020, 06:22 AM   #12
Danny83
2024 ROLEX DATEJUST41 Pledge Member
 
Danny83's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Real Name: Danny
Location: Bay Area CA
Watch: Yellow Gold
Posts: 20,314
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy View Post
Oh, and I forgot to mention the at Danny83 is going to get me a deal around 70% off of MSRP on a top of the line Luxury EV. Maybe 75
Hotwheels or Matchbox ? !
Danny83 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 5 December 2020, 01:05 AM   #13
mrricks
"TRF" Member
 
mrricks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Location: Abu Dhabi, UAE/AZ
Watch: Yachtmaster
Posts: 679
Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.
__________________
116622
1680, 16233, 113400 retired
mrricks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 5 December 2020, 03:23 AM   #14
bondtoys
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: World
Watch: 16750
Posts: 2,733
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrricks View Post
Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.
From the Solar panels on my house roof.
Alternatively, my country is giving nightly produced wind power away for free because we can‘t store it. Would be great, if we all would charge our EVs over night for that.

For sure it doesn‘t make sense burning fuel and gas to produce electricity for EVs or even worse nuke.
Just shows that we must change the way how we produce the energy that we are using.
bondtoys is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 5 December 2020, 07:21 AM   #15
SPMN
"TRF" Member
 
SPMN's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: St Paul, MN
Watch: Tudor, Omega
Posts: 1,218
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrricks View Post
Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.
The article addresses that by noting solar power is now the cheapest form of new energy capacity for most of the world. Solar cells have been getting progressively more and more efficient while economies of scale keep driving the price lower and lower. Add in things like Tesla's new solar shingles, and wider adoption of solar arrays that are motorized to follow the sun's track through the sky, and it's clear that much of the world will be able to meet their power needs that way. I look forward to the day where most new construction is able to be built off-grid. It doesn't seem like it's that far in the future anymore.
SPMN is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 5 December 2020, 07:32 AM   #16
Blansky
2024 Pledge Member
 
Blansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: swmnpoolsmovie*
Posts: 9,809
Quote:
Originally Posted by SPMN View Post
The article addresses that by noting solar power is now the cheapest form of new energy capacity for most of the world. Solar cells have been getting progressively more and more efficient while economies of scale keep driving the price lower and lower. Add in things like Tesla's new solar shingles, and wider adoption of solar arrays that are motorized to follow the sun's track through the sky, and it's clear that much of the world will be able to meet their power needs that way. I look forward to the day where most new construction is able to be built off-grid. It doesn't seem like it's that far in the future anymore.
Living in California, I'm surprised they 20 years ago they didn't make every new construction have solar. Minimal cost to the cost of a new home.
__________________
OlllllllO
Blansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 6 December 2020, 05:11 AM   #17
twitch54
"TRF" Member
 
twitch54's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Real Name: 'Bobby'
Location: SE Pa
Watch: 1888 Appleton Trac
Posts: 1,014
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrricks View Post
Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.
not quite, coal currently generates just over 30%, basically even with natural gas
twitch54 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 6 December 2020, 05:47 AM   #18
CamSLC
"TRF" Member
 
CamSLC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: USA
Watch: Rolex & Patek
Posts: 1,436
Quote:
Originally Posted by twitch54 View Post
not quite, coal currently generates just over 30%, basically even with natural gas
It's actually state dependent. Mine is 66% when last reported. Which is down substantially from 5 years prior.

https://www.eia.gov/state/

CamSLC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 8 December 2020, 04:51 AM   #19
twitch54
"TRF" Member
 
twitch54's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Real Name: 'Bobby'
Location: SE Pa
Watch: 1888 Appleton Trac
Posts: 1,014
Quote:
Originally Posted by CamSLC View Post
It's actually state dependent. Mine is 66% when last reported. Which is down substantially from 5 years prior.

https://www.eia.gov/state/

OK fine, but since you listed your location as 'USA' my numbers relate to that ....
twitch54 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 6 December 2020, 11:32 PM   #20
mountainjogger
2024 Pledge Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Real Name: H
Location: North Carolina
Watch: M99230B-0008
Posts: 5,675
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrricks View Post
Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.
I think your percentages are incorrect. In 2019 Coal accounted for 23.4% of US electric production.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

And given the 2020 closures, that percentage has likely declined further.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...unced-in-2020/

Stay Safe.
__________________
The King of Cool.
mountainjogger is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 6 December 2020, 11:49 PM   #21
Dyim
"TRF" Member
 
Dyim's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Canada
Posts: 2,237
I am thinking of holding onto some of my ICE cars because they could be a dying breed. I truly enjoy the sound, feel, and even smell of ICE.

But I think North America will be slow to phase out ICE compared to Europe for a multitude of reasons.
Dyim is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 7 December 2020, 12:10 AM   #22
DLRIDES
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
DLRIDES's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Real Name: Don
Location: NC/WY
Watch: Me
Posts: 4,676
The future of EV’s is bright, but they’re being rushed into the marketplace without appropriate infrastructure for a large geographical country like the US. The industry/buyers/owners seem to be promoting mass amounts of orgasmic jibberish without a basis for real world operation, “symbolism over substance” or “intentions matter more than results”, pick one.

Just imagine, ........... for the masses to travel any notable distance in an EV, every place there is currently a gas station, there needs to be a charging station .......... a two point charge station at the library in Rawlins Wyoming won’t work, nor will a six point Tesla charge station in Lima Montana !


) 500 mile range and 15 minute charge
) Sufficient charge stations
) Mining/environmental capacity (very toxic materials for battery production)
) Battery/environmental recycling capacity (extremely difficult to recycle currently)
) EV taxing system to replace gas taxes
) Additional energy production. There is currently only three ways to produce electricity on a large scale .............. fossil fuels, hydro, or nuclear. We’re not going to be building additional dams or nuclear stations, so what’s remaining ?

When the above is accomplished, the US will be ready for mass EV transportation. Many industry analysts are saying the current EV growth will retract due to the above items, and we are decades away here in the US.

__________________
Purchasing your first non HOA home on a 3 acre lot DOES NOT equate to owning a “farm”.
DLRIDES is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 7 December 2020, 03:50 AM   #23
CamSLC
"TRF" Member
 
CamSLC's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: USA
Watch: Rolex & Patek
Posts: 1,436
Quote:
Originally Posted by DLRIDES View Post
The future of EV’s is bright, but they’re being rushed into the marketplace without appropriate infrastructure for a large geographical country like the US.
You're completely right. I have never had an EV, but ordered one for delivery in 21'. I'm considering hanging onto my ICE Tacoma for road trips. I dont like the idea of keeping two cars, but I also don't like the idea of stopping for 45 min on a 4 hour drive


Been using https://abetterrouteplanner.com/ to plan longer routes that the EV would do regularly.
CamSLC is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 7 December 2020, 04:05 AM   #24
dtwer
"TRF" Member
 
dtwer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: midwest
Watch: DJ 41
Posts: 1,507
Quote:
Originally Posted by DLRIDES View Post
The future of EV’s is bright, but they’re being rushed into the marketplace without appropriate infrastructure for a large geographical country like the US. The industry/buyers/owners seem to be promoting mass amounts of orgasmic jibberish without a basis for real world operation, “symbolism over substance” or “intentions matter more than results”, pick one.

Just imagine, ........... for the masses to travel any notable distance in an EV, every place there is currently a gas station, there needs to be a charging station .......... a two point charge station at the library in Rawlins Wyoming won’t work, nor will a six point Tesla charge station in Lima Montana !


) 500 mile range and 15 minute charge
) Sufficient charge stations
) Mining/environmental capacity (very toxic materials for battery production)
) Battery/environmental recycling capacity (extremely difficult to recycle currently)
) EV taxing system to replace gas taxes
) Additional energy production. There is currently only three ways to produce electricity on a large scale .............. fossil fuels, hydro, or nuclear. We’re not going to be building additional dams or nuclear stations, so what’s remaining ?

When the above is accomplished, the US will be ready for mass EV transportation. Many industry analysts are saying the current EV growth will retract due to the above items, and we are decades away here in the US.

Agreed. To unilaterally believe driving a EV is akin to saving the environment without considering the infrastructure requirement and cost is unrealistic and unsustainable.

Currently the most cost-efficient and clean way of generating electricity in large scale is nuclear power; this would appear to be true in the foreseeable future. As of today, globally there are 440 nuclear reactors in service, 50 new reactors being built, and 30 countries planning to activate nuclear power.
dtwer is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 5 December 2020, 01:22 AM   #25
Mountains
"TRF" Member
 
Mountains's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2020
Real Name: Robbie
Location: High altitude
Watch: Submariner
Posts: 103
I suspect oil still has a fairly strong future. It will become cheaper to extract with technology and I’m sure the ingenuity of man will work out how to reduce the co2 pollution.

Batteries also use rare metals which are difficult to extract without causing environmental damage. EVs certainly aren’t the environmental wonders they’re marketed as!
Mountains is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 5 December 2020, 03:25 AM   #26
bondtoys
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: World
Watch: 16750
Posts: 2,733
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mountains View Post
Batteries also use rare metals which are difficult to extract without causing environmental damage. EVs certainly aren’t the environmental wonders they’re marketed as!
Those are arguments from many years ago.
Future of car batteries looks much different and the CO2 burden from battery production are compensated after 10-20000 miles.
bondtoys is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 5 December 2020, 02:08 AM   #27
Blansky
2024 Pledge Member
 
Blansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: swmnpoolsmovie*
Posts: 9,809
I posted recently about thermal power and this link is an interesting concept but I'm not sure either what is going to take up the slack until some of these technologies are developed further.

Bottom line though, we need to get off fossil fuels.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/h...nge-everything
__________________
OlllllllO
Blansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 6 December 2020, 05:41 AM   #28
brandrea
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
brandrea's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Real Name: Brian (TBone)
Location: canada
Watch: es make me smile
Posts: 78,132
There’s some interesting hydrogen technology for automobiles being developed too
brandrea is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 6 December 2020, 07:30 AM   #29
Chester01
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2018
Location: East Coast
Watch: 16610
Posts: 4,933
I drive diesel and get 40mpg and that’s just around town and close to 50mpg highway. The hybrid vehicles get maybe that and some less, but what’s the difference between filling up at the gas station or taking electric from Your house, which they in turn get from petroleum or other fossil fuels?
Chester01 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 6 December 2020, 08:55 AM   #30
SPMN
"TRF" Member
 
SPMN's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Location: St Paul, MN
Watch: Tudor, Omega
Posts: 1,218
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chester01 View Post
I drive diesel and get 40mpg and that’s just around town and close to 50mpg highway. The hybrid vehicles get maybe that and some less, but what’s the difference between filling up at the gas station or taking electric from Your house, which they in turn get from petroleum or other fossil fuels?
Because alternatives to fossil fuels exist. Nuclear, wind, solar. This article, and many others, point out that solar is now the least expensive way to produce new energy. I'm sure coal and gas will exist in some form for a very long time, but they're on the way out, relatively speaking.

Even Cadillac plans to offer only EV vehicles by 2030.
SPMN is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

OCWatches

Wrist Aficionado

My Watch LLC

WatchesOff5th

DavidSW Watches

Takuya Watches


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.