Rolex in Hong Kong amid COVID

[Rolexia88]

My quest to try and find a place to compare a rhodium YM, blue-face YM, BLNR oyster, Pepsi jubilee and 12x sub all in one place continues. This is so I can work out which i want to buy.

I'm in Hong Kong where COVID has meant no tourists whatsoever since April 2020. And the year before that the protests were damaging.

Today I went to the second hand watch shops area around Kimberly Plaza and Nathan Road and was shocked. I estimate 8 in 10 watch shops have closed their doors. All stock is gone and the empty display cases and chairs remain; abandoned. The remaining stores still keep their stubbornly high prices but can be negotiated down. It is a sorry sight for a once thriving area.

I popped my head into 5 Rolex ADs and asked just for the blue face YM and all said no but tried to sell me a yellow gold YMII. At the last one, frustrated by having to work hard to spend US$12,000, I asked what the point was with no stock and no customers. A wry smile and a door held open for me to leave.

Elsewhere Nathan Road is in trouble. Half the stores are gone, lots of boarded up shopfronts. This is uglier than the newspapers would have you believe.

[teck21]

It’s so ugly the ADs won’t let you spend your $12,000?


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[Rolexia88]

Teck-oi, yes, isn't it silly. TAKE MY MONEY!

[GCFA]

Most of the hot models went straight to the grey market in bundle deals reached between ADs and flippers. Rolex AD in Hong Kong received a Pepsi gmt on monday, grey seller in mainland China or states took delivery of the Pepsi on Friday. The least thing you need to worry about is the survival of Rolex ADs. Trust me, some grey seller may under some cash flow problems, the ADs, they’re doing very well.

[Hub6152]

Originally Posted by GCFA

Most of the hot models went straight to the grey market in bundle deals reached between ADs and flippers. Rolex AD in Hong Kong received a Pepsi gmt on monday, grey seller in mainland China or states took delivery of the Pepsi on Friday. The least thing you need to worry about is the survival of Rolex ADs. Trust me, some grey seller may under some cash flow problems, the ADs, they’re doing very well.

I’m struggling to understand how an AD, who’s monthly allocation might only be 7 or 8 pieces (Rolex only manufactures 800k pieces per year for the whole world!), can make enough to survive on just selling to the grey market alone. So I doubt very much that AD’s are doing well at all.

[IamJacky]

Originally Posted by GCFA

Most of the hot models went straight to the grey market in bundle deals reached between ADs and flippers. Rolex AD in Hong Kong received a Pepsi gmt on monday, grey seller in mainland China or states took delivery of the Pepsi on Friday. The least thing you need to worry about is the survival of Rolex ADs. Trust me, some grey seller may under some cash flow problems, the ADs, they’re doing very well.

I think I can attest to that.

I bought a BLRO via grey in Malaysia on December 4th 2020. The dealer showed me two of them, one is from HK AD and another is from Malaysia AD. I bought the one from Malaysia, it was dated November 28th 2020. It's less than one week out of the AD.

For the record, I had been visiting ADs and signing up on "wait lists" through out Sep-November at all the ADs I could find in my area for the BLRO. I knew I wasn't going to get one, but I signed for one anyway.

The warranty card of the BLRO I got was a new version so I don't know which Malaysia AD it was, all I know is that which ever AD it was, I definitely stepped into their boutique and inquired about a BLRO, and of course the answer I got from them was unanimously "Sorry no stock. Wait list."

Yet here I am with a brand spanking new BLRO from the exact AD that tells me there's no stock.

I don't blame them though, either the AD sells the BLRO as a bundle to the grey, or the AD sells the BLRO to some VIP who flips. I'm leaning towards the former, because I think the greys nowadays are pretty much the wholesalers who have the money to bundle buy in order to get the hottest watch.

I would imagine the grey dealer made almost $10K off of me as a result of bundle-buy from the AD, OR, they buy from a VIP flipper at above MSRP and sell the BLRO to me. Either way, I just know that I have zero chance of ever getting this BLRO at MSRP.

[zeeww]

Originally Posted by IamJacky

I think I can attest to that.

I bought a BLRO via grey in Malaysia on December 4th 2020. The dealer showed me two of them, one is from HK AD and another is from Malaysia AD. I bought the one from Malaysia, it was dated November 28th 2020. It's less than one week out of the AD.

For the record, I had been visiting ADs and signing up on "wait lists" through out Sep-November at all the ADs I could find in my area for the BLRO. I knew I wasn't going to get one, but I signed for one anyway.

The warranty card of the BLRO I got was a new version so I don't know which Malaysia AD it was, all I know is that which ever AD it was, I definitely stepped into their boutique and inquired about a BLRO, and of course the answer I got from them was unanimously "Sorry no stock. Wait list."

Yet here I am with a brand spanking new BLRO from the exact AD that tells me there's no stock.

I don't blame them though, either the AD sells the BLRO as a bundle to the grey, or the AD sells the BLRO to some VIP who flips. I'm leaning towards the former, because I think the greys nowadays are pretty much the wholesalers who have the money to bundle buy in order to get the hottest watch.

I would imagine the grey dealer made almost $10K off of me as a result of bundle-buy from the AD, OR, they buy from a VIP flipper at above MSRP and sell the BLRO to me. Either way, I just know that I have zero chance of ever getting this BLRO at MSRP.

Just curious, with the new warranty card, how would one know which country it came from, never mind the AD?

[TswaneNguni]

Very interesting thread.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by zeeww

Just curious, with the new warranty card, how would one know which country it came from, never mind the AD?

Yeah I was wondering that too. I’ve got a couple of the new warranty cards. Good luck finding out the “where” unless there’s some type of find Waldo clue I don’t know about

[IamJacky]

Originally Posted by zeeww

Just curious, with the new warranty card, how would one know which country it came from, never mind the AD?

I asked the owner. He presented two identical watches, and I asked him where the AD was, he said the November card is from Malaysia and September card is purchased at HK AD, I just took his words for it.

[teck21]

Originally Posted by IamJacky

I think I can attest to that.

I bought a BLRO via grey in Malaysia on December 4th 2020. The dealer showed me two of them, one is from HK AD and another is from Malaysia AD. I bought the one from Malaysia, it was dated November 28th 2020. It's less than one week out of the AD.

For the record, I had been visiting ADs and signing up on "wait lists" through out Sep-November at all the ADs I could find in my area for the BLRO. I knew I wasn't going to get one, but I signed for one anyway.

The warranty card of the BLRO I got was a new version so I don't know which Malaysia AD it was, all I know is that which ever AD it was, I definitely stepped into their boutique and inquired about a BLRO, and of course the answer I got from them was unanimously "Sorry no stock. Wait list."

Yet here I am with a brand spanking new BLRO from the exact AD that tells me there's no stock.

I don't blame them though, either the AD sells the BLRO as a bundle to the grey, or the AD sells the BLRO to some VIP who flips. I'm leaning towards the former, because I think the greys nowadays are pretty much the wholesalers who have the money to bundle buy in order to get the hottest watch.

I would imagine the grey dealer made almost $10K off of me as a result of bundle-buy from the AD, OR, they buy from a VIP flipper at above MSRP and sell the BLRO to me. Either way, I just know that I have zero chance of ever getting this BLRO at MSRP.

None of that constitutes evidence that watches are going direct to grey dealers from an AD.

What that proves, if anything is that every single AD in the world sells directly to grey dealers because every one must originate from an AD.

If selling directly to greys is easier, more profitable and risk free compared to selling to consumers, why do so many ADs do the whole complicated relationship building or bundling thing?


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[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by teck21

None of that constitutes evidence that watches are going direct to grey dealers from an AD.

What that proves, if anything is that every single AD in the world sells directly to grey dealers because every one must originate from an AD.

If selling directly to greys is easier, more profitable and risk free compared to selling to consumers, why do so many ADs do the whole complicated relationship building or bundling thing?


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ADs sell other lux products and jewelry too. They’re courting you, to buy for your wife, mistress, and teenage kids too. These are known to sales pros as Upsells, Downsells and Bumpsales...

[loftycomfort]

Originally Posted by teck21

If selling directly to greys is easier, more profitable and risk free compared to selling to consumers, why do so many ADs do the whole complicated relationship building or bundling thing?


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Because grey dealers are opportunistic and have no loyalty to a particular AD. ADs know this. They are in this for the long haul. They know that one day the Rolex craze could end, and they'll need to run a jewelry store business just like any other - by providing excellent service to earn the repeat business from loyal customers.

Until that happens, they'll keep riding the direct-to-grey gravy train, but still keep a steady stream of quality loyal customers content.

[IamJacky]

Originally Posted by teck21

None of that constitutes evidence that watches are going direct to grey dealers from an AD.

What that proves, if anything is that every single AD in the world sells directly to grey dealers because every one must originate from an AD.

If selling directly to greys is easier, more profitable and risk free compared to selling to consumers, why do so many ADs do the whole complicated relationship building or bundling thing?


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Having bought the watch on December 4th 2020 while the warranty card is dated November 28th 2020, and the dealer told me it's from a local AD can only mean that:

1. The grey dealer got it directly from the AD (via bundling)
2. The grey dealer got it from a flipper who bought at the AD

It doesn't really matter.

There are 6 ADs in Kuala Lumpur and I've visited all of them. In the same vicinity there are at least 15 grey dealers with bricks & mortar shops that I'm aware of (not to count those FB group/online presence). Most of these dealers carry some of the most popular SS models.

When chatting with the owner of these grey dealers, I get a sense that they must have some sort of relationship with the ADs, or that they have strong connection to those who do, they refer to them as "suppliers".

I always asked for the original receipt when I bought from these grey dealers because I wanted the complete set, and none of the grey dealers would give it to me, at first I didn't know why but now I get it - they do not want to reveal the person who flipped the watch to them.

This is just a single case and I'm not saying all ADs participate this behavior. But I am strongly convinced that some if not most of my local grey dealers either ARE the VIPs at the ADs, or they have connections to those who do.

My point is, for me, I just know that I will never be able to compete with these grey dealers or their sources, so getting a popular model like the BLRO at MSRP is basically impossible.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by IamJacky

Having bought the watch on December 4th 2020 while the warranty card is dated November 28th 2020, and the dealer told me it's from a local AD can only mean that:

1. The grey dealer got it directly from the AD (via bundling)
2. The grey dealer got it from a flipper who bought at the AD

It doesn't really matter.

There are 6 ADs in Kuala Lumpur and I've visited all of them. In the same vicinity there are at least 15 grey dealers with bricks & mortar shops that I'm aware of (not to count those FB group/online presence). Most of these dealers carry some of the most popular SS models.

When chatting with the owner of these grey dealers, I get a sense that they must have some sort of relationship with the ADs, or that they have strong connection to those who do, they refer to them as "suppliers".

I always asked for the original receipt when I bought from these grey dealers because I wanted the complete set, and none of the grey dealers would give it to me, at first I didn't know why but now I get it - they do not want to reveal the person who flipped the watch to them.

This is just a single case and I'm not saying all ADs participate this behavior. But I am strongly convinced that some if not most of my local grey dealers either ARE the VIPs at the ADs, or they have connections to those who do.

My point is, for me, I just know that I will never be able to compete with these grey dealers or their sources, so getting a popular model like the BLRO at MSRP is basically impossible.

I am curious, why would you need the receipt if the warranty card is filled out properly, and I assume you do get it?

[Wrist King]

I don’t understand it. It makes no sense that Rolex would allow ADs such profit at the individual level.


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[Bbp]

The rental is extremely high in hk... since no tourists, might as well sell via online, save on the rental and wait for the pandemic to be over. Honkongers are known to be very resilient and adapt well to difficult situations.

[turkeysub93]

I find it hard to believe that a high % of desirable watches go straight to the grey market. Check the stock of actual grey dealers like DavidSW, Nashville Watch, Crown & Caliber, Bob's Watches, etc. There are certainly a handful of desirable watches but not nearly enough to be able to ascertain that ADs are corrupt and a direct supply pipeline for grey dealers.

A lot of tinfoil hat conspiracies plague this forum.

[djyolky]

Originally Posted by turkeysub93

I find it hard to believe that a high % of desirable watches go straight to the grey market. Check the stock of actual grey dealers like DavidSW, Nashville Watch, Crown & Caliber, Bob's Watches, etc. There are certainly a handful of desirable watches but not nearly enough to be able to ascertain that ADs are corrupt and a direct supply pipeline for grey dealers.

A lot of tinfoil hat conspiracies plague this forum.

There's a much bigger world out there than you know. You listed a ripple of greys in an ocean.

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[Tensai]

It all goes to mainland China, where they are snatched up lightning fast. Many of the best secondhand sellers there you have to know, not for tourists.

[CedCraig]

I watch Uptick on YouTube. He lives in HK and his videos often show him watch shopping and window shopping. His latest videos show a pretty normal situation, but I’m not surprised that the retail situation there is difficult, like almost everywhere else. The pre-CCP HK is dead, so it will be interesting to see how the city further changes. I used to spend quite a bit of time there on my trips to Asia, but I’ll never go back.

[Hub6152]

Originally Posted by CedCraig

The pre-CCP HK is dead, so it will be interesting to see how the city further changes. I used to spend quite a bit of time there on my trips to Asia, but I’ll never go back.

What a load of crap if you’ll excuse my expression. It’s far from dead. Exactly the kind of comments from someone that thinks they know but actually doesn’t. I’m an HK’r.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Hub6152

What a load of crap if you’ll excuse my expression. It’s far from dead. Exactly the kind of comments from someone that thinks they know but actually doesn’t. I’m an HK’r.

Since you live in HK, what is your assessment of the market there?

[Hub6152]

Originally Posted by BillA

Since you live in HK, what is your assessment of the market there?

It’s very simple - all retail is suffering due to the social distancing measures because of Covid. I work in the watch industry (selling accessories) and our sales are hugely down simply due to the drop in numbers of people out and about. The absence of tourism doesn’t affect my shop quite as much, but certainly the main watch dealers will be hit by that. And the exit of expats has also not helped, especially those working within the airline industry. Pilots were big spenders. It’s not politics that’s killing HK, it’s the pandemic like everywhere else.

[Robf52]

Thank you CCP.

[vh2k]

Shipments to Hong Kong (which used to be the world’s largest market for Swiss watches) are down a whopping 45% from two years ago.

[2nastie]

I mean historically speaking (while your model is less popular than other sport watches), did you really think walking into a Rolex AD in the arguably the largest/strongest watch market in the world is going to yield you any fruit.

Not arguing that spending $12,000 USD or whatever amount is a lot of money for any single individual, but that's merely peanuts for them.

Pandemic or no pandemic, the watch market is strong. Hong Kong has always been a leader in the world for watches amongst many of things. It plays in part to why large auctions houses have big programs there yearly. It's no different than walking into a city like New York or London (frankly worse for your chances of obtaining a watch).

In addition to that, HK has been accustomed to selling things literally from any where so they don't need a visual presence or store front to be active.

Also hope you didn't try walking around in the AM, most stores especially during the pandemic open later in the day.

[southswell]

Never been to that part of asia. Hope to visit HK someday when this virus clears.

[fsprow]

As a frequent visitor to Hong Kong I am quite confident that as we put COVID behind us they will continue to prosper and repopulate the watch and camera stores ... on Nathan Road and elsewhere. HK’ers are industrious and enterprising.

I’m ready to get on the Star Ferry and go shopping, hopefully soon.

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by Rolexia88

A wry smile and a door held open for me to leave.

They meant for you to understand that they’re doing just fine.

The HL greys supply not just HK, but also the mainland and the rest of the world. Guess where the stock comes from?