How much effort/time should I put into getting a Sub through an AD?

[the dark knight]

A bit of a dilemma here. I don't necessarily mind going grey for a Submariner, as its probably my Rolex exit watch (for at least a long time), and the premiums aren't THAT bad considering the market. That being said, who wouldn't prefer to pay 50% less at an AD? But at the same time I'm not willing to buy a bunch of stuff I don't want or build a "relationship" if my end game is just one Rolex.

FWIW, I live in a very competitive area and have visited the 4 ADs nearby:

AD 1 : I have a very faint "relationship" with them as I just purchased an OP36.

AD 2 : They at least took my name down as "interested" in a Sub (none of the other 3 would even do that), and they didn't really suggest or give me the impression I need to buy other stuff. But that was a couple of months ago.

AD 3: Super friendly everytime, they insist they sometimes will put a Sub in the display and let it get snatched up first come first served, but I doubt that's true. They encouraged me to come check in as much as possible.

AD 4: This was the one that was most overt about suggesting I need to buy other stuff. I've written them off.

So I mean that's where things stand. It's the uncertainty that bothers me more than anything. Some of the ADs are giving me a small ray of hope (which may be false hope sure) that makes me want to hold out and just keep checking in, and I'm also hoping once COVID dies off that the Sub will become a slightly easier watch to get. I feel like I might feel better if I give myself a deadline for working the ADs, and then just move on and purchase from grey.

How long do you guys suggest I wait and keep trying the ADs before I just go grey?

[Fleetlord]

How many are independent vs chain?

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

How many are independent vs chain?

2 of them are independent with 1 location.

1 is a local chain but the store I've been visiting is Rolex only (turned into a boutique)

The other is also a local chain with multiple locations.

[Sub*Man]

Only you can answer how long you’re comfortable waiting. If you’re not going to increase spend history with the AD, then your your chances of acquiring one diminish, but it’s not impossible for a Sub. If you have no interest in building a relationship then my suggestion is to go grey. But keep in mind when you do want to buy your next Rolex, because cmon man that’s inevitable, you’ll be in the same position you are now.

[ks58]

Which OP 36? I would say that could be your best bet. I've never heard of a shop putting a Sub in the case and mentioned to keep coming in to try to snag it. That's weird.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by ks58

Which OP 36? I would say that could be your best bet. I've never heard of a shop putting a Sub in the case and mentioned to keep coming in to try to snag it. That's weird.

Silver dial.

[Justinmg]

I would never pay over msrp for anything, but that’s just me. I’d wait and get it at retail. Plus buying grey just makes the problem worse. The sub is not worth 14-15k I don’t even think it’s really worth 9k honestly. I got mine in about 6 months with only a BB58 as prior history and this was in New Orleans which is pretty populated.

[WILLIWALKER]

Originally Posted by Justinmg

I would never pay over msrp for anything, but that’s just me. I’d wait and get it at retail. Plus buying grey just makes the problem worse. The sub is not worth 14-15k I don’t even think it’s really worth 9k honestly. I got mine in about 6 months with only a BB58 as prior history and this was in New Orleans which is pretty populated.

well said
before all that crap, we have a lot of discussion on the cost price (include marketing, R&D) of any Rolex and he does not fly high (1K for the sub?) Add the weight of gold for a PM and it's worst

[jimcameron]

Originally Posted by Justinmg

The sub is not worth 14-15k I don’t even think it’s really worth 9k honestly.

[sj24k]

pretty simple. if you want the watch now, and can afford the premium, then go grey and get it. this is a very common question these days and the reality is it's a totally personal thing and no one else has the answer or knows any more than you. i'm super impatient when it comes to scratching these types of itches, so i'd go grey and enjoy the watch tomorrow. i think your strategy of setting a date to pull the trigger is fine, but i wouldn't expect the watch to come down in price any time soon.

oh and don't let anyone else tell you what the watch is worth. the market is the only current measure of the quantitative worth. only you can determine what the qualitative worth is to you. to some people a $75 casio isn't "worth" it. to others, a $75,000 patek is "worth" everything.

[the dark knight]

Thanks for the responses guys. Grey prices are hovering about $14-15k right now. Do you think they will go appreciably higher by the end of the year, or do you think that's roughly the ceiling? The Explorer I 39mm after discontinuation seemed to have a bit of a price spike but I feel like recently it's found a ceiling, so maybe the Sub will flatten out around 15k grey?

We're halfway through the year so I have no issues trying the ADs for the rest of the year and then maybe going grey as a Christmas gift for myself if nothing materializes. How's that for a plan?

[SubMillennial]

As more 126610LNs keep getting manufactured I imagine the price will fall. Current 5-6K premium is outrageous but understandable given it's a new release. Once that premium falls below 3k, i.e under the price of any Rolex you could buy to pad your spend history, I would just go grey if you haven't gotten it by then

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

As more 126610LNs keep getting manufactured I imagine the price will fall. Current 5-6K premium is outrageous but understandable given it's a new release. Once that premium falls below 3k, i.e under the price of any Rolex you could buy to pad your spend history, I would just go grey if you haven't gotten it by then

Man, I hope you are right but I'm not sure it will actually go down in price on the secondary market. I'm hoping a ceiling has been reached at the current 5-6k premium, but I'm not sure if that will halve. But I certainly hope you are right. I think I'm going to at least wait another 6 months or so and try my luck with ADs.

[SubMillennial]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

Man, I hope you are right but I'm not sure it will actually go down in price on the secondary market. I'm hoping a ceiling has been reached at the current 5-6k premium, but I'm not sure if that will halve. But I certainly hope you are right. I think I'm going to at least wait another 6 months or so and try my luck with ADs.

I'm kind of in the same boat as you, waiting on 2 dealers with various spend history in the high four figures range. I've decided if they can't come through by 2022 i'm going to just take the plunge on Chrono24. I don't mind buying a worn piece so i'll just set aside an extra $500 a month until then to cover the premium, LOL

[Rochester585]

I think that’s a great plan OP. Test your luck and charisma for the next few months and if that won’t do then you call a reputable broker and have Santa bring it down the chimney. Either way you end up happy !

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by Rochester585

I think that’s a great plan OP. Test your luck and charisma for the next few months and if that won’t do then you call a reputable broker and have Santa bring it down the chimney. Either way you end up happy !

[RealMadrid1988]

Originally Posted by SubMillennial

As more 126610LNs keep getting manufactured I imagine the price will fall. Current 5-6K premium is outrageous but understandable given it's a new release. Once that premium falls below 3k, i.e under the price of any Rolex you could buy to pad your spend history, I would just go grey if you haven't gotten it by then

Haven’t seen any evidence to suggest this. All of the sport models have been going up, up, up. The demand is far outpacing the supply. When people can’t get the Daytona/Sky-Dweller, they look for the GMT. When they can’t get the GMT, they look for the Sub. Now the modest Submariner has become hard to get and its “scarcity” has trickled down to other models. We’re officially seeing “waiting lists” on Datejusts.

[Lukebennett21]

Sub seems to be super unpredictable - lots of posts here from people with no spend history getting them others wait and wait. I do agree that the grey price seems pretty high compared to the premium the last Gen was fetching.

[johnorpheus]

15k for a SS Sub seems nuts. Didn’t realize it had gotten that bad. Yikes

[superspectral]

I have (an ever changing) list of watches I want, many of which I can buy at MSRP. I don't have any plans to sell or flip. So I'm just waiting and giving my money to other brands. I may have a long wait. Maybe never. I tend to think the current situation will badly damage Rolex's reputation as they become more and more associated with shady scalping. But hey, people are dropping millions on NFT - which sounds like true baloney. What do I know.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by johnorpheus

15k for a SS Sub seems nuts. Didn’t realize it had gotten that bad. Yikes

Last time I checked 2 tone subs were running $18k and are a MUCH better choice in my opinion.
You can get a steel watch at Walmart or the nearest Dollar and More store.
To hell with waiting. Buy tomorrow, wire the money and get the watch Thursday morning.
**** the Ad's and their corrupt games.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by bob sims

Last time I checked 2 tone subs were running $18k and are a MUCH better choice in my opinion.
You can get a steel watch at Walmart or the nearest Dollar and More store.
To hell with waiting. Buy tomorrow, wire the money and get the watch Thursday morning.
**** the Ad's and their corrupt games.

I didn't realize the grey price of a Sub was bumping up against retail for the Bluesy.

Are the Bluesy and Root Beer also hard to get from ADs? Cause honestly I would rather have one of those at retail than a steel Sub for same price.

[krounchou]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

I didn't realize the grey price of a Sub was bumping up against retail for the Bluesy.

Are the Bluesy and Root Beer also hard to get from ADs? Cause honestly I would rather have one of those at retail than a steel Sub for same price.

The bluesy is not so difficult. Got to try it twice at my AD before getting the call for the SubC date.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

I live in a very competitive area

Its called earth.

[Sub*Man]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Its called earth.

lol underrated comment

[Oxfordian]

No issues getting my 124060 from my AD last year, yes I had some purchase history, jewellery and other watches, but when I asked for the Submariner I wasn’t asked to buy anything else, received the watch very quickly after asking.

[spacebjorn]

I don't understand why the AD's who suggest you to buy something are labelled as the bad apples here...

If anything, they're laying it out for you to get you to understand what it takes to get a sport model. The AD's who won't tell you about this are the ones who won't get you anything and are selling you a pipedream with a non-existent 'list' when in reality it works the same way but they don't trust you enough to tell you straight up.

[superspectral]

Originally Posted by spacebjorn

I don't understand why the AD's who suggest you to buy something are labelled as the bad apples here...

If anything, they're laying it out for you to get you to understand what it takes to get a sport model. The AD's who won't tell you about this are the ones who won't get you anything and are selling you a pipedream with a non-existent 'list' when in reality it works the same way but they don't trust you enough to tell you straight up.

Both situations are pretty rotten, aren't they? An AD could choose sell you a sub without any bundling or they could put you through the cold shoulder. And anything in between. Sounds like nobody really knows the truth - even when the truth varies between AD to AD.

[spacebjorn]

Originally Posted by superspectral

Both situations are pretty rotten, aren't they? An AD could choose sell you a sub without any bundling or they could put you through the cold shoulder. And anything in between. Sounds like nobody really knows the truth - even when the truth varies between AD to AD.

Agreed. To your point - if nobody knows the truth then it's best to deal with folks who are going to be direct with you rather than being opaque and wasting your time.

Certainly it's a rotten (rigged) game; but understand that you have to pay to play.

[dsquared24]

I would wait it out, especially since you already have a "foot" in the door aka purchase history with AD1. You also have other AD options in the area so that's a good thing. Also, good on you for visiting them in person since that's better than cold calling them.

My answer would be different if you had no spend anywhere. Despite maybe the silver OP is the least popular of the new dials, it's a good sign they sold it to you without history.