Evergrande and Rolex availability in the West

[SDR581]

Just wondering how all this stuff with Evergrande and the Chinese economy is going to affect Rolex availability... if at all. For us folks here in the West (USA and Europe).

Do you think there will be an overall slow down in luxury spending?

Just curious.

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by SDR581

Do you think there will be an overall slow down in luxury spending?

No

[HelloMelo]

let me see what my crystal ball says

[Snerks]

The US stock market is still trading at ATH from just a few months ago. Its gonna take a lot more than a 5% pull back, lol.

[SWS65SM]

Sure, it is the second largest builder in the world, and its collapse is wiping out the equity investors and will probably have some contagion effects to the regional high yield bond market, but it is not going to become a systemic bomb to drag down that entire country's economy like what Lehman triggered in the US and the rest of the world 14 years ago. The chances of this having enough impact to move the needle of Rolex availability out west (or world wide) is miniscule to none, wishful thinking

[TimepieceRPP]

I guess it is now not the Chinese economy anymore as they are slowing down a lot.
I guess it is the social media and the younger generation.

[doboy007]

Hope so but not holding my breath.

[macrowatch]

Nope. Chinese can and are effectively nationalizing the assets.

No SS Daytona on shelf anytime soon.

[SDR581]

Originally Posted by macrowatch

Nope. Chinese can and are effectively nationalizing the assets.

No SS Daytona on shelf anytime soon.

Bummer. Wasn't hoping to anything extravagant.

Just want a TT Blusey to call my own.

[macrowatch]

Originally Posted by SDR581

Bummer. Wasn't hoping to anything extravagant.

Just want a TT Blusey to call my own.

A polite smile and winning personality will probably get that done for you on that model. No need to give up hope!

[Robf52]

I think it's going to take a long, painful equity bear market to crush watch demand.

[teck21]

I’m the short run, maybe. If there’s enough fear to cause a complete loss of confidence. I think they have it under control though.

Evergrande’s ( and the other property developers) debt issues were never an unknown unknown.

In the longer run though, the fact remains that China is still poorly urbanised compared to the developed countries (ie still dirt poor in many regions).

The link between urbanisation and disposable income is of course not in question.

Also not in question is the hundreds of millions more who will urbanize in the decades to come and join the ranks of middle and upper middle income class.

India, Indonesia, Vietnam and many other countries have barely even started.

If you want a Rolex at msrp, your best bet is to hope that the people of all these countries stay poor forever.


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