is it really that even the VC Overseas 4500 black and silver are also......

[maruchan22]

is it really that even the VC Overseas 4500 black and silver are also above retail? These two are not that hard to obtain really not sure why Chrono24 is showing 30-40% above retails...

[ChetBaker]

Because there are waitlists of up to several years for both. So I’m aftaid so.

[GreenLantern]

It's all a joke. No one can get a 5711 at $140k anymore, so everything else that were previously below-retail alternatives are now skyrocketing.

Same reason why $SHIB skyrocketed after $DOGE had its strong run-up already.

"Investment" hype and speculation.

[Willyjo]

This sums it up folks:

The Fomo rally: ‘fear of missing out’ helps fuel soaring markets - https://on.ft.com/3nb4F40 via @FT



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[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

This sums it up folks:

The Fomo rally: ‘fear of missing out’ helps fuel soaring markets - https://on.ft.com/3nb4F40 via @FT

[myporsche]

I passed at almost 40% off pre-owned at one point on a curent gen Overseas, ADs were discounting on brand new at the time. Tourneau was begging me to take a previous gen pre-owned blue chrono for 8-9k. Plenty of previous gens where all over ebay/forums for 5-6k I remember. The watch is worth what your willing to pay, seeing the terrible value retention historically on Vacheron being one of the reasons, it was a pass for me. I do like the brand including the current Overseas but only to a certain financial threshold, recently with the crazy increases in retail prices and getting onboard the hype crap (hyping straps??) I'm kind of turned off by the brand.

[ChetBaker]

Originally Posted by myporsche

I passed at almost 40% off pre-owned at one point on a curent gen Overseas, ADs were discounting on brand new at the time. Tourneau was begging me to take a previous gen pre-owned blue chrono for 8-9k. Plenty of previous gens where all over ebay/forums for 5-6k I remember. The watch is worth what your willing to pay, seeing the terrible value retention historically on Vacheron being one of the reasons, it was a pass for me. I do like the brand including the current Overseas but only to a certain financial threshold, recently with the crazy increases in retail prices and getting onboard the hype crap (hyping straps??) I'm kind of turned off by the brand.

Ah. Sounds like you’re bummed you missed the boat on these.

[swish77]

The question is whether current VC prices on the secondary market will be the norm moving forward, or whether they'll come back down to earth.

Either way, I think it's clear VC has shattered the myth that its watches don't hold their value, at least for now. Pricing is crazy.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by swish77

The question is whether current VC prices on the secondary market will be the norm moving forward, or whether they'll come back down to earth.

Either way, I think it's clear VC has shattered the myth that its watches don't hold their value, at least for now. Pricing is crazy.

Have to agree Aaron, time will tell as they say.

[myporsche]

Originally Posted by ChetBaker

Ah. Sounds like you’re bummed you missed the boat on these.

Not at all, I didn't miss the boat on anything

[ChetBaker]

Originally Posted by myporsche

Not at all, I didn't miss the boat on anything

Well - you seem pretty invested in convincing other people (and perhaps yourself) that VC is a pass at current prices. Why worry about a brand you don’t have an interest in.

[DoctorA]

Supply and demand!
I spoke with the VC boutique last week and the lady told me that they stopped accepting deposit for the silver and black.
Could be because of a loooooooooong waiting list or a price hike is coming up, or BOTH.

[GreenLantern]

You all do realize that Supply & Demand only applies to liquid markets, right? Or markets with enough supply that natural market forces are the cause of pricing.

The low volume in these markets means grey market dealers set pricing.

Why did the new Patek 5990/1R "open" at $380k when it first launched? Because a handful of big players in the grey market *decided* to open at that.

And voi la! It's now "trading" at $380k, and even auctions will yield that because no one has a proper basis for pricing. And at auction, all it takes is a couple of idiots to make it match that price.

Simple.

[037]

Vacheron makes about 20 to 25,000 watches per year and only about 15% of that output are stainless references. Divide that number (3000~3750) worldwide across ADs and boutiques and it doesn’t take long for waiting lists to exceed availability. The US, for example, gets about 10% of that slice of the pie, leaving around 350-500 stainless annually just to be generous with numbers. That’s about one stainless watch per day for the US market.

VC used to be the black sheep of the holy trinity. Now people are paying attention. I personally don’t see them going down anytime soon, so long as the demand for Rolex, Patek and AP remains strong.

[GreenLantern]

The general public is only paying attention because they can't get an AP or a Rolex/Patek. It's that simple.

VC is still the black sheep of the holy trinity.

Rising tide lifts all ships, though, so we're feeling the effects of the speculative run-up in APs and Pateks.

[sinkholeninja]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern

The general public is only paying attention because they can't get an AP or a Rolex/Patek. It's that simple.

VC is still the black sheep of the holy trinity.

Rising tide lifts all ships, though, so we're feeling the effects of the speculative run-up in APs and Pateks.

This!

[Flying Doctor]

VC Overseas has shot up in the last couple of months - the almost overnight change is quite staggering. As late as April this you nearly all VCs would come at a discount and that has simply gone overnight.......
The move about a year ago to VC Steel/Blue dial as boutique only probably started this and, then as others have stated, with PP, AP and Rolex all getting a bit crazy at some point VC was always going to be discovered. You can also see if you now look say for a VC Overseas Chrono in blue there are only about 5 on Chrono24 compared to the huge numbers previously so I think that prices are only going higher, at least at the moment. How sustainable that is, well there are endless threads about that on all the fora but certainly at the moment, the only way does seem up.....
FD.

[raclaims]

I agree Vc has gotten more attention from the every day watch buyer due to scarcity but to say they only do for that reason is silly

I buy vc because their products of late demand attention

[GreenLantern]

Originally Posted by raclaims

I agree Vc has gotten more attention from the every day watch buyer due to scarcity but to say they only do for that reason is silly

I buy vc because their products of late demand attention

Forgive me, but you missed my point.

You, me, others on here, we do not count with respect to the reason I posited above.

The attention from "everyday" watch buyers *is* because they can't get the pieces they truly want. Remember, these "everyday" folks aren't like you and me. Many had never cared about Vacheron until this speculative run-up in other watches caused insane levels of scarcity.

Vacheron deserves the care and attention, but that's not the point I am discussing or disputing. The point is why they're receiving attention in the first place now.

[ChetBaker]

I bought both a 56 day-date and Overseas black dial in the past year and am glad I did. They’re no lesser products than PP let alone AP and offer much better value than most. This is the only reason they get the attention they are receiving now - the other brands are simply too expensive for what you get and i don’t pay for hype.

[037]

On top of that, VC doesn't have the volume of stainless output to support the "everyday" crowd on top of existing buyers, so I'm sure we'll see a lot of salty posts from those who missed the boat.

Even if someone sees VC as a fallback to Rolex, PP and AP, the numbers simply won't be there to support them. Wait lists won't get any shorter for anyone without a purchase history.

It'll be interesting to see if VC shifts production from dress complications and more toward Overseas models.

[solaire]

Originally Posted by 037

It'll be interesting to see if VC shifts production from dress complications and more toward Overseas models.

They won't.


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[GreenLantern]

Of course they won't. That would be too forward thinking!

I wonder who's going to come through and fill in the gap, and really make a killing in this market.

I sure do wish that one of the major brands was one of my portfolio companies. It would be a very interesting experiment to try to capitalize on everyone else's slowness to increase supply to keep up with (notice I said "keep up" not "meet") demand.

[037]

I'm not holding my breath but I wouldn't rule out doubling their stainless production knowing that's where the buyers are.

But, even doubling it won't be enough. If things keep going like this, 100% of their output wouldn't be enough.

I'll stick with my prediction about salty posts.

[myporsche]

No one is salty, if I didn't want it at 30-40% off what makes you think I care or want it at double markup. Oh wait, I was supposed to invest and flip it to the next sucker for profit? I don't enjoy that, it's not the reason I'm in this hobby. It's just a watch, I tried it on both the chrono and a blue three hander, a nice watch in a large sea of many other nice watches. No FOMO/hype crap or missing any (sinking) boats here.

[037]

Originally Posted by myporsche

No one is salty, if I didn't want it at 30-40% off what makes you think I care or want it at double markup. Oh wait, I was supposed to invest and flip it to the next sucker for profit? I don't enjoy that, it's not the reason I'm in this hobby. It's just a watch, I tried it on both the chrono and a blue three hander, a nice watch in a large sea of many other nice watches. No FOMO/hype crap or missing any (sinking) boats here.

Just to clarify, I wasn't talking about you specifically. I have two close friends who are trying to source a VC Overseas at the moment and can't because they're either waitlisted to eternity or don't have prior purchase history and the dealer won't play ball. So, they're salty about missing that boat. I'm also seeing far more salty posts about Overseas being hard to get, the Everest releases not being full production, etc.

It's undoubtedly driven by hype and the reversal of VC's previous poor resale value on Overseas models. I wish everyone bought because they liked the watch and not the hype or resale but unfortunately those buyers are in the minority these days.

I also suspect their past performance was also impeded by being a Richemont brand. They don't exactly have a stellar track record even if VC and Lange have generally escaped most of their drama.

To my earlier point about production numbers, I don't see Overseas getting any easier to find going forward. It'll take a major reversal of industry demand for that to happen.

[ChetBaker]

You don’t enjoy flipping, yet you enjoy passing on Vacheron watches because of their “terrible value retention”. You also hang around a Vacheron thread convincing people of, what exactly?

[myporsche]

Originally Posted by ChetBaker

You don’t enjoy flipping, yet you enjoy passing on Vacheron watches because of their “terrible value retention”. You also hang around a Vacheron thread convincing people of, what exactly?

Stop crying over your insecurities, begging for validation and acceptance that you probably overpaid for a brand known to tank in value and go enjoy your watch.

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[ChetBaker]

Originally Posted by myporsche

Stop crying over your insecurities, begging for validation and acceptance that you probably overpaid for a brand known to tank in value and go enjoy your watch.

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Now now, is that really necessary? Before you embarrass yourself even more, why don’t you remove yourself from this thread and let us enjoy a grown-up discussion about one of our favorite watches.

[WalterW]

Originally Posted by myporsche

Stop crying over your insecurities, begging for validation and acceptance that you probably overpaid for a brand known to tank in value and go enjoy your watch.

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So what If someone “overpaid” and so what If their watch tanks in value. Not everyone is worried about profit and how much their watch is worth on the market. . I love my overseas. If it fell 50 percent in value tomorrow I would still love it and enjoy wearing it. Same goes with my 911 991.1 carrera s. I bought it for cheap and it went up 30 percent in value during covid. But even if it depreciated 50 percent I would still love it the same. Hashtag saltbae