Getting a popular steel model at MSRP as a random customer?

[Stranger]

Is it possible to get a steel Submariner or GMT at a Rolex AD at MSRP as a random, 1-purchase customer?

In other words, can one get such a piece by simply putting their name on a list & wait? Or is it a recipe for waiting forever for one's turn to come?

[Snerks]

Originally Posted by JDelage

Is it possible to get a steel Submariner or GMT at a Rolex AD at MSRP as a random, 1-purchase customer?

In other words, can one get such a piece by simply putting their name on a list & wait? Or is it a recipe for waiting forever for one's turn to come?

You'll be waiting until aftermarket price and retail price are the same again... which could be never!

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by Snerks

You'll be waiting until aftermarket price and retail price are the same again... which could be never!

never is about right. I am having to bow and scrape to get a DD and won't be surprised if I have to go grey in the end.

[subby718]

Originally Posted by JDelage

Is it possible to get a steel Submariner or GMT at a Rolex AD at MSRP as a random, 1-purchase customer?

In other words, can one get such a piece by simply putting their name on a list & wait? Or is it a recipe for waiting forever for one's turn to come?

It’s in my opinion that you’ll wait indefinitely. Depends how quickly you want the watch on your wrist. With no spend history, there is more than a good chance you will not be considered at this time and laughed out the shop. It’s just the way it is at the minute, unfortunately.

[Seddyspaghetti]

Impossible at a large chain AD and very very unlikely at a smaller privately owned AD.

[vh2k]

Total guess…. I would say 1 in 10-20 new Subs goes to a new first time Rolex customer.

[subby718]

Originally Posted by vh2k

Total guess…. I would say 1 in 10-20 new Subs goes to a new first time Rolex customer.

I’d be more than confident in saying that 1 in 20 would be very optimistic. At this time, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was more like 1 in 1000.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by subby718

At this time, I wouldn’t be surprised if it was more like 1 in 1000.

In the UK, Australia, etc., sure. In the United States, first time customers can purchase Subs.

[subby718]

Originally Posted by vh2k

In the UK, Australia, etc., sure. In the United States, first time customers can purchase Subs.

Possibly so, but the general consensus from what I have read on this board would suggest customers looking to buy a Sub in the US struggle as much as we do across the pond. I don’t think this Rolex bubble is isolated to the east.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by subby718

Possibly so, but the general consensus from what I have read on this board would suggest customers looking to buy a Sub in the US struggle as much as we do across the pond.

It’s hard, for sure. Again, it’s likely a small percentage of Subs for a very large pool of first time prospects.

[HiBoost]

Originally Posted by subby718

Possibly so, but the general consensus from what I have read on this board would suggest customers looking to buy a Sub in the US struggle as much as we do across the pond. I don’t think this Rolex bubble is isolated to the east.

It's definitely a global phenomena, no question about that. But I've had 2 different ADs tell me that Rolex actually "pushes" (though they can't force) ADs to sell some percentage of their allocation to first time customers. It's not good for the brand to have things be so incestuous.

So think 1 in 20 is probably on the mark. But OP is in Seattle, a large market. Let's say an AD gets 200 watches in a year (double what my smaller town AD gets btw). Let's further say that 10% of these are SS Subs (just pulling a number out of my arse). And let's say there are 100 randos who have walked into the AD this year asking if they could get an SS Sub.

So we've got a supply of 20 Subs this year, of which 1 is going to go the rando line, and there are 99 other people in it besides you. So yeah, 1 in 20 going to first time customers can still mean you wait a lifetime.

[kieselguhr]

Depends on your individual luck.

I would say submariner more likely than the GMT due to popularity

[Scott_]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Depends on your individual luck.

I would say submariner more likely than the GMT due to popularity

Where would TT GMT and Sub fit in the "how likely could I get it without purchase history?" question come in 9vs. steel)?

I'm in a similar situation. I purchased my DJ (16220) from a local pre-owned dealer about 4 years ago, and I'm trying to figure out what my chances are at getting something new at retail this year. People say "go for a DJ first", but that's the only one I already have. The ones I'm most interested in right now are the TT GMT (Root Beer), the platinum/steel YM40 (slate dial), and the OP34 (black dial).

I'm guessing the OP34 may be the easiest to get from this bunch, but I understand that OP is also hard to get these days.

If not these, what "first from AD" watch *would* be feasible other than a DJ (since I already have one of those)?

[RJRJRJ]

Originally Posted by Scott_

Where would TT GMT and Sub fit in the "how likely could I get it without purchase history?" question come in 9vs. steel)?

I'm in a similar situation. I purchased my DJ (16220) from a local pre-owned dealer about 4 years ago, and I'm trying to figure out what my chances are at getting something new at retail this year. People say "go for a DJ first", but that's the only one I already have. The ones I'm most interested in right now are the TT GMT (Root Beer), the platinum/steel YM40 (slate dial), and the OP34 (black dial).

I'm guessing the OP34 may be the easiest to get from this bunch, but I understand that OP is also hard to get these days.

If not these, what "first from AD" watch *would* be feasible other than a DJ (since I already have one of those)?

Anything two tone is going to be waay easier to get than plain steel. You also mention the YM but that sort of falls into the full steel category. And I'd agree that the OP34 would be by far the easiest to get from those options.

It seems like the TT SD43 seems to be available once in a while.

[huba01]

Wow

[2001jesper]

Think that there is a post here on the forum ever so often, where exactly that happened. More likely with a Sub.

[10XRolex]

Speaking from experience. If you have the right AD, it's very possible.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by kieselguhr

Depends on your individual luck.

I would say submariner more likely than the GMT due to popularity

Spoken like a true TRF vet. I agree. Way more likely to get a Sub than a GMT

Originally Posted by 10XRolex

Speaking from experience. If you have the right AD, it's very possible.

I'd imagine thats something he doesnt have based upon the question

[train-time]

Anything is possible - all ADs are different.

[Stranger]

I'm not sure what "the right AD" looks like. I'm in Seattle (so in the US) and we don't have that many options.

My main interest is actually for the Explorer II, for what it's worth.

[subby718]

Originally Posted by JDelage

I'm not sure what "the right AD" looks like. I'm in Seattle (so in the US) and we don't have that many options.

My main interest is actually for the Explorer II, for what it's worth.

Well that’s not a Submariner or a GMT. Still difficult, but my guess would be you have a lot more chance getting an Explorer II with no purchase history over the other two models.

[10XRolex]

Originally Posted by JDelage

I'm not sure what "the right AD" looks like. I'm in Seattle (so in the US) and we don't have that many options.

My main interest is actually for the Explorer II, for what it's worth.

The right AD is the one that doesn't give you the song and dance on how difficult these watches are to get, blah, blah, blah.

Sit and talk with them by having a simple conversation. Explain to them what you are looking for.. It's truly not that difficult. If they find you genuine enough you may even get the watch right then and there.(Yes all you haters, it happens).

[RBradleigh]

Originally Posted by JDelage

I'm not sure what "the right AD" looks like. I'm in Seattle (so in the US) and we don't have that many options.

My main interest is actually for the Explorer II, for what it's worth.

Granted it was 2018 and times change but I was able to get an Explorer II as a one and done purchase from Ben Bridge on 5th Ave. Of course there was also a Sub date in the case that day too.

Anyhow I think its possible, most probably ask about Pepsi and Daytona.


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[Stranger]

Thanks. I had not realized the demand was much different.

[OrwellianNightmare]

I get that it's all speculation, but what's the general consensus on the likelihood of getting a Sub/Sub Date vs. a steel GMT? I'm not entirely sold on the PCL, but I do rather like the 126710BLNR. I'm only down for the Subs today.

[malba2366]

Your best bet at and AD is to try to package it with a datejust TT/PM model. That used to be a sure bet but even now that can take some work.

[seabreeze60]

Visit your local AD during the last 4-5 days before the month ends. If they have watches that haven’t sold, you have a good chance to secure what is available. The SAs have a monthly quota. That’s how I picked up my Explorer. The odds are slim for the most popular sports models. Generally the list folks will pick up their watches.

[Nikrnic]

I'd say you have a 1% chance but you never know. I've bought many Rolex through my AD. Mostly new and a couple used, sold and traded as well. I asked for a black Milgauss a few months ago and haven't heard a word. Things are much tighter now than a year ago. I do not expect any more calls at this point. I'm ok with that and not losing any sleep over the shortage or wait list battle.

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[dpt.calvin]

Possible? Yes. Likely? No. But shoot your shot.

[Nav01L]

Originally Posted by JDelage

Is it possible to get a steel Submariner or GMT at a Rolex AD at MSRP as a random, 1-purchase customer?

In other words, can one get such a piece by simply putting their name on a list & wait? Or is it a recipe for waiting forever for one's turn to come?

Yes, it is possible, every AD is different and has different policies, and with some, it has worked for me. But it’s getting increasingly rare these days, most ADs are circling the wagons around catering to an ever smaller circle of existing customers. But stating that all do so in the same way would be inaccurate.