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DaveTheWatchGuy · 10 January 2022, 01:43 PM

It’s a cautionary tale of what could happen when the secondary market becomes hotter than the retail market.

This documentary talks about the collectors (who drive all over the country visiting different gift shops to pickup hard to get dolls), novice flippers, professional flippers, trade shows, forums, Authenticators….it all sounds eerily familiar to what’s going on these days with Rolex. Worth checking out.

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Ensign · 10 January 2022, 01:51 PM

I was going to write that a $25,000 Hulk cannot be compared to a $300 stuffed animal. But I searched up Beanie Baby and I see some are still going for over $125,000.

DaveTheWatchGuy · 10 January 2022, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ensign

I was going to write that a $25,000 Hulk cannot be compared to a $300 stuffed animal. But I searched up Beanie Baby and I see some are still going for over $125,000.

That’s crazy!

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DaveTheWatchGuy · 10 January 2022, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ensign

I was going to write that a $25,000 Hulk cannot be compared to a $300 stuffed animal. But I searched up Beanie Baby and I see some are still going for over $125,000.

Rare…with errors!

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TimeAZ · 10 January 2022, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveTheWatchGuy

Rare…with errors!

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Fully stickered, in un-played condition, and comes with original retail bag and papers!

DaveTheWatchGuy · 10 January 2022, 02:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TimeAZ

Fully stickered, in un-played condition, and comes with original retail bag and papers!

So sad! Lol. The doc talked about that too. Dolls that weren’t played with. No better than watches that are stored in a safe and not enjoyed.

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ce027772 · 10 January 2022, 01:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ensign

I was going to write that a $25,000 Hulk cannot be compared to a $300 stuffed animal. But I searched up Beanie Baby and I see some are still going for over $125,000.

It cannot be compared in terms of the premium above original MSRP. Mania (like the tulip mania) is when the price of goods skyrocket beyond any rational justification. I haven't seen that with Rolex yet.

DaveTheWatchGuy · 10 January 2022, 02:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ce027772

It cannot be compared in terms of the premium above original MSRP. Mania (like the tulip mania) is when the price of goods skyrocket beyond any rational justification. I haven't seen that with Rolex yet.

I think what’s going on with the Tiffany dial op 41 is a pretty good example of a crazy overnight skyrocketing price

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ce027772 · 10 January 2022, 02:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaveTheWatchGuy

I think what’s going on with the Tiffany dial op 41 is a pretty good example of a crazy overnight skyrocketing price

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Even at 5-6 times MSRP it wouldn't qualify as a mania. Could be overpriced, but not a mania yet.

Glidelock · 10 January 2022, 04:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ensign

I was going to write that a $25,000 Hulk cannot be compared to a $300 stuffed animal. But I searched up Beanie Baby and I see some are still going for over $125,000.

Can someone get me a list of buyers whom have paid in excess of $100,000 for Beanie Baby’s? I paid $8,600 out the door from my AD for my 116610LV when it 1st came out and everyone on the Forums talked about how ugly they were.

Now, I still really love it, but it just so happens that $125,000 is my current Majic12…oops Magic Number! Anyone whom is foolish enough to pay that amount for a Plushy has got be worth hitting up!

WatchesNBlondes · 10 January 2022, 02:00 PM

I remember those days. They used to have conventions with them too. I think I'll sell my Rolexes if they start having Las Vegas conventions with people hawking them.

macrowatch · 10 January 2022, 02:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WatchesNBlondes

I remember those days. They used to have conventions with them too. I think I'll sell my Rolexes if they start having Las Vegas conventions with people hawking them.

I uh…think it’s in Miami. Lol.

DaveTheWatchGuy · 10 January 2022, 02:03 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WatchesNBlondes

I remember those days. They used to have conventions with them too. I think I'll sell my Rolexes if they start having Las Vegas conventions with people hawking them.

They’ve had those watch conventions for years. For wholesale dealers though

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inadeje · 11 January 2022, 01:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WatchesNBlondes

I remember those days. They used to have conventions with them too. I think I'll sell my Rolexes if they start having Las Vegas conventions with people hawking them.

They already do…type “watches” in youtube and weep…

ce027772 · 10 January 2022, 02:27 PM

When you can buy a house for the price of a SS Daytona, you can call it mania

Dougiebaby · 11 January 2022, 09:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ce027772

When you can buy a house for the price of a SS Daytona, you can call it mania

Can I interest you in a $17.8million home?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hylabau...t-auction/amp/

Of course, I know you are purposely not including this one.

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ce027772 · 11 January 2022, 01:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dougiebaby

Can I interest you in a $17.8million home?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/hylabau...t-auction/amp/

Of course, I know you are purposely not including this one.

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Since you picked the most expensive SS Daytona watch, I will point out to the most expensive house - https://www.the-sun.com/news/4432178...price-slashed/

Of course, I know you are purposely not including this one.

ReturningSon · 10 January 2022, 02:38 PM

Its funny reading these comments. One (if not THE) defining characteristics of a bubble is people believe the prices will go up and up. They also believe that their product is 'different". Rolexes are not tulips. They are not stuffed beanie animals...

Imagine a tulip dealer back in the day: " Of course you can buy orchids and roses but THESE are no ORDINARY tulips, they are X, Y, and Z". Human psychology remains untouched and unmarred despite years, decades, centuries.

"This isnt just a watch, its not even a Rolex. Its a HULK, STARBUCKS, PEPSI............"

Yes, we are in a bubble. It may burst slowly or overnight but just like the beanie baby moms, we will see or read people posting (in X number of years/decades) "I paid XXXXX for THIS" and others will laugh or at the very least raise an eyebrow. Maybe the grandkids will circle back

ce027772 · 10 January 2022, 02:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReturningSon

Its funny reading these comments. One (if not THE) defining characteristics of a bubble is people believe the prices will go up and up. They also believe that their product is 'different". Rolexes are not tulips. They are not stuffed beanie animals...

Imagine a tulip dealer back in the day: " Of course you can buy orchids and roses but THESE are no ORDINARY tulips, they are X, Y, and Z". Human psychology remains untouched and unmarred despite years, decades, centuries.

"This isnt just a watch, its not even a Rolex. Its a HULK, STARBUCKS, PEPSI............"

Yes, we are in a bubble. It may burst slowly or overnight but just like the beanie baby moms, we will see or read people posting (in X number of years/decades) "I paid XXXXX for THIS" and others will laugh or at the very least raise an eyebrow. Maybe the grandkids will circle back

I do hope you are right and I will be able to buy a BLRO at MSRP or less in the near future. I sincerely doubt it will happen though.

ReturningSon · 10 January 2022, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ce027772

I do hope you are right and I will be able to buy a BLRO at MSRP or less in the near future. I sincerely doubt it will happen though.

My follow-up question would be "would you want to pay MSRP when you can get the BLRO for the traditional 30-40% off?"

The answer is..well...no...Just like the 80s Italian car market, people chasing thousands of dollars that would soon disappear in months.

The BRLO is very nice, may the stars align. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, (as pessimist as I may read, I hope people don't lose their shirts in this hobby. Many wonderful people surrounding many beautiful objects)

ce027772 · 10 January 2022, 03:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ReturningSon

My follow-up question would be "would you want to pay MSRP when you can get the BLRO for the traditional 30-40% off?"

The answer is..well...no...Just like the 80s Italian car market, people chasing thousands of dollars that would soon disappear in months.

The BRLO is very nice, may the stars align. I sincerely hope I'm wrong, (as pessimist as I may read, I hope people don't lose their shirts in this hobby. Many wonderful people surrounding many beautiful objects)

I said I would be happy to pay MSRP or less.

Nobody knows what to expect. Life is unpredictable. I was told by an AD that he was having hard time selling a SS Daytona at MSRP around 2008 or so. Anything can happen. If a severe economic downturn happens maybe people will be trading Rolex watches for groceries. Hope it will never happen, though.

WantBlue15202 · 10 January 2022, 03:01 PM

There are definitely similarities. The difference is the high cost / barrier to entry leads this to be a more affluent bubble sport. This go round the bubble is spread among many dumb asset classes.

These watches are useless - in today’s world they do absolutely nothing for us (outside of personal emotional entertainment or a projection of wealth/status/etc). Like Beanie babies - fakes are flooding the market.. theft is up, etc.

The people arguing the prices are rational or justified have a vested interest in them being so. If you SOLELY care about owning or enjoying a watch - the price should be irrelevant.

ce027772 · 10 January 2022, 03:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WantBlue15202

The people arguing the prices are rational or justified have a vested interest in them being so. If you SOLELY care about owning or enjoying a watch - the price should be irrelevant.

Let's say you own a car. You are driving and enjoying it. When it's time to trade it in for a newer or different car, do you care about its value? I do. I really want to get more money for my current car. People do care about the value of the items they own. If they say they don't, they either have too much money or they are hypocrites. If you have a house, you are enjoying it, but you care about the value of your house.

WantBlue15202 · 11 January 2022, 12:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ce027772

Let's say you own a car. You are driving and enjoying it. When it's time to trade it in for a newer or different car, do you care about its value? I do. I really want to get more money for my current car. People do care about the value of the items they own. If they say they don't, they either have too much money or they are hypocrites. If you have a house, you are enjoying it, but you care about the value of your house.

No I agree - everyone cares about the value, and a Rolex will hold long term value better than a stuffed animal for sure. But the concept that they'll continually trade 2,3,10x what the manufacturer is selling them for seems like a fantasy. And once that "I can buy this with zero risk" wears off, I think the whole thing deflates..

I'm talking with my money too.. I only own three watches currently - sold an AP (purchased retail!), Rolex, Tudors.. If it goes up forever - ya'll enjoy the ride without me. I kept the two that have truly sentimental value to me (and bought a GS), the rest were just fun to own and wear and I got paid to do it. Can't think of a better situation!

CarlOver · 11 January 2022, 01:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WantBlue15202

The people arguing the prices are rational or justified have a vested interest in them being so. If you SOLELY care about owning or enjoying a watch - the price should be irrelevant.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ce027772

Let's say you own a car. You are driving and enjoying it. When it's time to trade it in for a newer or different car, do you care about its value? I do. I really want to get more money for my current car. People do care about the value of the items they own. If they say they don't, they either have too much money or they are hypocrites. If you have a house, you are enjoying it, but you care about the value of your house.

The gray dealers want the prices to go up. They try to raise prices on chrono24 so others think that the price is actually going up. Message a dealer on chrono about a watch and you will quickly be told that they don’t have the watch so they can’t give you any details. They are bogus ads. I can put an ad on that site and raise the price 1K over the lowest in hopes I can source a watch and resell it.

Most people want their house and car to retain value, but you an I are not likely trying to actively do anything about it. We hope our homes go up in value but we will continue to live there anyway so if there is a dip we won’t care much because we are not going to sell.

aczaja10 · 10 January 2022, 03:47 PM

I watched the Beanie Baby documentary and thought the same thing as OP. The bubble is bursting in sports cards, too, but the only difference between beanie babies and sports cards on the one hand and Rolex on the other is the price. It’s more expensive to buy into the Rolex game, even at the lowest level. What does that mean? I’m not entirely sure. I don’t think the prices can rise forever though.

ce027772 · 10 January 2022, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aczaja10

I don’t think the prices can rise forever though.

The truth is that prices rise forever. Compare today's prices with the prices 50 years ago or 30 years ago. Inflation causes all prices to rise forever.

rkny · 10 January 2022, 05:01 PM

Beanie Babies were a dry run for crypto.

amh · 10 January 2022, 11:37 PM

This has happened before
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

Between my wife and I we're on our 6th. If I never get another one, I'm fine with that. No way I'm paying over MSRP, there's already tons of profit for Rolex and the AD factored in. The current 2x, 3x, 4x valuations are irrational.

brandrea · 10 January 2022, 11:50 PM

The world is nuts.

10 January 2022, 01:43 PM	#1
DaveTheWatchGuy "TRF" Member Join Date: Aug 2018 Location: Canada Posts: 292	Beanie Baby Doc reminds me of Rolex Mania It’s a cautionary tale of what could happen when the secondary market becomes hotter than the retail market. This documentary talks about the collectors (who drive all over the country visiting different gift shops to pickup hard to get dolls), novice flippers, professional flippers, trade shows, forums, Authenticators….it all sounds eerily familiar to what’s going on these days with Rolex. Worth checking out. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

10 January 2022, 02:38 PM	#18
ReturningSon "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Sacremento Watch: ALS, Rolex, Seiko Posts: 158	Its funny reading these comments. One (if not THE) defining characteristics of a bubble is people believe the prices will go up and up. They also believe that their product is 'different". Rolexes are not tulips. They are not stuffed beanie animals... Imagine a tulip dealer back in the day: " Of course you can buy orchids and roses but THESE are no ORDINARY tulips, they are X, Y, and Z". Human psychology remains untouched and unmarred despite years, decades, centuries. "This isnt just a watch, its not even a Rolex. Its a HULK, STARBUCKS, PEPSI............" Yes, we are in a bubble. It may burst slowly or overnight but just like the beanie baby moms, we will see or read people posting (in X number of years/decades) "I paid XXXXX for THIS" and others will laugh or at the very least raise an eyebrow. Maybe the grandkids will circle back __________________ Lange 1815, Bulova Lunar Pilot, Rolex DeepSea, Rolex 1601 Linen Dial, Casio G-Shock

10 January 2022, 03:01 PM	#22
WantBlue15202 "TRF" Member Join Date: May 2021 Location: USA Posts: 163	There are definitely similarities. The difference is the high cost / barrier to entry leads this to be a more affluent bubble sport. This go round the bubble is spread among many dumb asset classes. These watches are useless - in today’s world they do absolutely nothing for us (outside of personal emotional entertainment or a projection of wealth/status/etc). Like Beanie babies - fakes are flooding the market.. theft is up, etc. The people arguing the prices are rational or justified have a vested interest in them being so. If you SOLELY care about owning or enjoying a watch - the price should be irrelevant. __________________ El Primero 1969 \| 126710BLNR \| SBGX263 \| 1050.010 \| M79830

10 January 2022, 01:51 PM	#2
Ensign "TRF" Member Join Date: Jul 2018 Location: America Posts: 715	I was going to write that a $25,000 Hulk cannot be compared to a $300 stuffed animal. But I searched up Beanie Baby and I see some are still going for over $125,000.

10 January 2022, 02:00 PM	#11
WatchesNBlondes Banned Join Date: Dec 2021 Location: USA Posts: 270	I remember those days. They used to have conventions with them too. I think I'll sell my Rolexes if they start having Las Vegas conventions with people hawking them.

10 January 2022, 02:27 PM	#15
ce027772 "TRF" Member Join Date: Nov 2020 Location: USA Posts: 200	When you can buy a house for the price of a SS Daytona, you can call it mania

10 January 2022, 03:47 PM	#26
aczaja10 "TRF" Member Join Date: Mar 2016 Location: In my car Posts: 959	I watched the Beanie Baby documentary and thought the same thing as OP. The bubble is bursting in sports cards, too, but the only difference between beanie babies and sports cards on the one hand and Rolex on the other is the price. It’s more expensive to buy into the Rolex game, even at the lowest level. What does that mean? I’m not entirely sure. I don’t think the prices can rise forever though.

10 January 2022, 05:01 PM	#28
rkny "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: NYC at heart Posts: 250	Beanie Babies were a dry run for crypto.

10 January 2022, 11:37 PM	#29
amh "TRF" Member Join Date: Oct 2008 Location: Tejas Watch: Various Posts: 5,082	This has happened before https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania Between my wife and I we're on our 6th. If I never get another one, I'm fine with that. No way I'm paying over MSRP, there's already tons of profit for Rolex and the AD factored in. The current 2x, 3x, 4x valuations are irrational.

10 January 2022, 11:50 PM	#30
brandrea 2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member Join Date: Jul 2013 Real Name: Brian (TBone) Location: canada Watch: es make me smile Posts: 78,075	The world is nuts.

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