Is “the puke” coming to the watch market?

[jarecki]

Good article from The Wall Street Journal

“When Will the Selling Stop?”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-wi...pos_5#cxrecs_s

[seabreeze60]

Originally Posted by jarecki

Good article from The Wall Street Journal

“When Will the Selling Stop?”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/when-wi...pos_5#cxrecs_s

Only those with WSJ subscriptions can view.

[173rdabn]

Many Grays and ADs accept crypto. Could be one hell of a shot if they've held it.

[hondacb1002]

Originally Posted by 173rdabn

Many Grays and ADs accept crypto. Could be one hell of a shot if they've held it.

which AD's and grays accept crpyto?

[itsinthebag]

CRM does but they said they immediately convert to cash to avoid the volatility

[mountainjogger]

Could not read the full article. Paywall.

A secondary watch market correction. Sure.

But Rolex dropping 99% in 24 hours like Luna? Or 82% like Coinbase since initial offering? That is pure fantasy.

[RUSH2689]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Could not read the full article. Paywall.

A secondary watch market correction. Sure.

But Rolex dropping 99% in 24 hours like Luna? Or 82% like Coinbase since initial offering? That is pure fantasy.

A correction would be most welcomed. Prices back to near MSRP*gasp*

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by RUSH2689

A correction would be most welcomed. Prices back to near MSRP*gasp*

A watch veteran is predicting all watches will be in the display case for sale by December 2023. This means they will all be at MSRP or for discount from your friendly AD.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

A watch veteran is predicting all watches will be in the display case for sale by December 2023. This means they will all be at MSRP or for discount from your friendly AD.

Who? Anyone people would recognize?

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Who? Anyone people would recognize?

He or she has repeatedly claimed he/she has been collecting watches for 4 decades so that qualifies him/her as a veteran? Here is the post of his/her prediction:

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...&postcount=635

Here is his/her definition of "normal":

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...&postcount=713

Quote ~
"Back to normal for me is how it was for the first 35yrs of me collecting watches prior to 2017. Back to normal for you might be something different, I have no idea. I started off in my teens buying what I could afford and bought most of everything including my Rolex sport watches out of the case, except my Daytona which I had a short wait for and no discount."

[Njkdog]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

A watch veteran is predicting all watches will be in the display case for sale by December 2023. This means they will all be at MSRP or for discount from your friendly AD.

0% chance. Rolex couldn’t make enough watches to satisfy demand within a year.

[MorningTundra]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

0% chance. Rolex couldn’t make enough watches to satisfy demand within a year.

What if you factor in an inflation adjusted price rise and a recession dampened demand decline?

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

0% chance. Rolex couldn’t make enough watches to satisfy demand within a year.

Watches are already out there, just not at MSRP.
Problem is the explosion of the secondary market and everyone “flipping for profit”. A correction was in order.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

0% chance. Rolex couldn’t make enough watches to satisfy demand within a year.

They did for decades. I don’t believe that demand has been primarily genuine owner demand, I think a lot was speculators. If those clear out, I’ll bet their supply can meet the actual demand of normal “civilian” watch buyers. It’s probably the reason they have not increased either production levels or MSRP.

[Podmornica]

Originally Posted by Njkdog

0% chance. Rolex couldn’t make enough watches to satisfy demand within a year.

That's a false demand created by the flippers and resellers who want to take profit .. They are clogging the AD lists as they consist of +90% buyers there so the general public is unable to acquire a watch. Once they realize they can't make 300% profits they will vanish.

[77T]

Couldn’t read it - but opinions will vary on when the selling stops.

From another story…
Downturns are rarely straight down. There will be relief rallies. Crypto may head back up. So could many of the once high-flying stocks, in what’s affectionately known on Wall Street as a dead cat bounce.

But some won’t make it.

Lessons from the dot-com demise 20 years ago: Pets.com and eToys.com are both very much still dead. Much of the “value” was misinterpreted. Having internet reach was equated with successful value creation. But no, that wasn’t a true measure.

I believe when crypto ledgers and exchanges refuse to accept crypto for their fees will be an inflection point.

I remember in previous cycles that investors cared about how much cash companies had on their balance sheets.

Same for crypto - “it stops” when the companies running the physical infrastructure upon which its virtual value thrives demand traditional cash for payment.


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[BT1985]

Originally Posted by 77T

Couldn’t read it - but opinions will vary on when the selling stops.

From another story…
Downturns are rarely straight down. There will be relief rallies. Crypto may head back up. So could many of the once high-flying stocks, in what’s affectionately known on Wall Street as a dead cat bounce.

But some won’t make it.

Lessons from the dot-com demise 20 years ago: Pets.com and eToys.com are both very much still dead. Much of the “value” was misinterpreted. Having internet reach was equated with successful value creation. But no, that wasn’t a true measure.

I believe when crypto ledgers and exchanges refuse to accept crypto for their fees will be an inflection point.

I remember in previous cycles that investors cared about how much cash companies had on their balance sheets.

Same for crypto - “it stops” when the companies running the physical infrastructure upon which its virtual value thrives demand traditional cash for payment.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

I can’t emphasize enough how much I agree with this.


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[lear60man]

Originally Posted by BT1985

I can’t emphasize enough how much I agree with this.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

No kidding. I hate the term dead cat bounce, but its so truthfully descriptive. I dont see any market looking inviting enough to jump in at the moment or foreseeable future except some areas for RE.

[Benzsiam]

I think the luxury items price will go along with the stock market, so it will goes back down to the pre Covid19 price.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

A watch veteran is predicting all watches will be in the display case for sale by December 2023. This means they will all be at MSRP or for discount from your friendly AD.

I didn't say all did I.
I was going to stay out of this one, not because I don't like the subject, but I feel like there is way too much angst and anger and I'm not sure it's healthy to keep stoking it, but I see I've been quoted and dragged in and now I feel compelled to answer the call.

I appreciate that you don't know what it was like prior to 2017, but there was (and probably always will be) some watches that you can't just walk in off the street to buy, but most Rolex SS tool watches weren't in that category, neither were many PP, AP RO, etc.
If things continue as they are doing then by the end of 2023 I think it's quite possible that you'll be able to do what we always could for many decades, i.e. walk into a Rolex shop and buy a Submariner.

I don't know why you're so angsty? Is it insecurity? I don't get you angry guys, you buy a new $50k+ watch every couple of months so it can't be the money. Maybe you feel self conscious about the image now and you realise that you've bought a box of fashion watches? Maybe you feel like your watches give you some sort of status and you're angry that it's diminishing?

The watches are always going to be the watches, they haven't physically changed or anything, we're just debating the prices and whether they're currently in fashion or not. It's an interesting subject and if you bought the watches purely because you like them then there is nothing to get emotional about. I'm feeling a lot of anger being projected at me just for saying that watch prices are going down, for some people I'm clearly living inside their heads rent free, it indicates how toxic the situation has become, it's a little disturbing.

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by David001

I didn't say all did I.
I was going to stay out of this one, not because I don't like the subject, but I feel like there is way too much angst and anger and I'm not sure it's healthy to keep stoking it, but I see I've been quoted and dragged in and now I feel compelled to answer the call.

I appreciate that you don't know what it was like prior to 2017, but there was (and probably always will be) some watches that you can't just walk in off the street to buy, but most Rolex SS tool watches weren't in that category, neither were many PP, AP RO, etc.
If things continue as they are doing then by the end of 2023 I think it's quite possible that you'll be able to do what we always could for many decades, i.e. walk into a Rolex shop and buy a Submariner.

I don't know why you're so angsty? Is it insecurity? I don't get you angry guys, you buy a new $50k+ watch every couple of months so it can't be the money. Maybe you feel self conscious about the image now and you realise that you've bought a box of fashion watches? Maybe you feel like your watches give you some sort of status and you're angry that it's diminishing?

The watches are always going to be the watches, they haven't physically changed or anything, we're just debating the prices and whether they're currently in fashion or not. It's an interesting subject and if you bought the watches purely because you like them then there is nothing to get emotional about. I'm feeling a lot of anger being projected at me just for saying that watch prices are going down, for some people I'm clearly living inside their heads rent free, it indicates how toxic the situation has become, it's a little disturbing.

I notice you have moved your goalposts about the type of watches freely available by end of December 2023 (like most of your other stances you made here) and you have made ALL the wrong assumptions about me, someone whom you do not know.

Stick to talking about something you actually know.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

I notice you have moved your goalposts about the type of watches freely available by end of December 2023 (like most of your other stances you made here) and you have made ALL the wrong assumptions about me, someone whom you do not know.

Stick to talking about something you actually know.

Like I said to someone else, I'm not here to educate you, I didn't write a scholarly article listing all possible scenarios, watches and prices. I gave some opinions on an internet forum and I didn't quantify every possible outcome. If you pick holes at it, then I'll qualify what I said, that's how humans usually get through a discussion. I might even change my opinion depending on the data I see unfolding.

I didn't make assumptions, I asked you questions, the question marks were the indicator of that. You didn't answer any of them.
So why are you so angry and angsty about the discussions on pricing?

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by David001

Like I said to someone else, I'm not here to educate you, I didn't write a scholarly article listing all possible scenarios, watches and prices. I gave some opinions on an internet forum and I didn't quantify every possible outcome. If you pick holes at it, then I'll qualify what I said, that's how humans usually get through a discussion. I might even change my opinion depending on the data I see unfolding.

I didn't make assumptions, I asked you questions, the question marks were the indicator of that. You didn't answer any of them.
So why are you so angry and angsty about the discussions on pricing?

How did you even formulate those questions in the first place about someone you do not know in online forums? Like I'm angsty, insecure, buying "fashion watch" and angry that it's diminishing in value. There must be a basis surely? Or are they pure rhetoric?

I have been here for more than 4 years and I have never asked those ridiculous questions of anyone. And I only have 1 account here.

How are these personal questions relevant to the discussions here?

[TswaneNguni]

Visited an AD over the weekend ,picked up a serviced watch.
They say its crazier than ever ,also receiving interesting offers of a lewd nature ..foreign visitors trying their luck with "incentives"

Demand at ADs more
Demand at Grey less .

Then ,when the realization hits ,that getting it from the AD,isn't going to be easier ,they run to the greys again and pricing goes up again .

Demand >> supply ,with stabilization of market pricing,slightly lower than peak .

You can count on human natures instant gratification urges.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

How did you even formulate those questions in the first place about someone you do not know in online forums? Like I'm angsty, insecure, buying "fashion watch" and angry that it's diminishing in value. There must be a basis surely? Or are they pure rhetoric?

I have been here for more than 4 years and I have never asked those ridiculous questions of anyone. And I only have 1 account here.

It's because you buy a new expensive hype watch every couple of months then post it on social media to bask in appreciative comments, you have hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of watches that you've acquired in a short time and you get angry if anyone tries to stray from your narrative.
You're stereotypical of the type of person we've seen walk into the hobby recently.

You quoted me in a sarcastic and provocative way in this thread and now you're feigning outrage because I'm asking why. I'm trying to understand where your motivations are.
That's how and why I formulated those questions.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

How did you even formulate those questions in the first place about someone you do not know in online forums? Like I'm angsty, insecure, buying "fashion watch" and angry that it's diminishing in value. There must be a basis surely? Or are they pure rhetoric?

I have been here for more than 4 years and I have never asked those ridiculous questions of anyone. And I only have 1 account here.

How are these personal questions relevant to the discussions here?

Try to ignore it. I've had very similar treatment from this character, who is claiming that he started collecting Rolex watches in his teenage years - a likely story!

I had a successful and reasonably well-paid career in hospital medicine, but with children, school fees, mortgage, etc., it wasn't until the age of 38 that I found I could finally afford my first Rolex. That was in 2001. I've built a small collection since that first one, with some bought and sold along the way - always at a loss - but despite telling him this, he persistently accuses me of being an anxious newbie watch investor who is in over his head, and terrified of falling prices.

I've bought two watches which, through blind luck, happen to have become very popular since I bought them. One is an FPJ I acquired used and at half it's MSRP in 2016. He's not started on that one yet, but he's given me endless grief about a Nautilus I bought in 2011, accusing me of buying it "as an investment", claiming that I'm "not a true enthusiast", and set himself up as somehow morally superior because he "doesn't care about values", despite multiple posts on the topic himself. He's projected feelings of anger and fear onto me because the prices have fallen a little in the past month or so. All this, and he doesn't know me from Adam.

FWIW I retired at 55, debt-free and with an extremely good index-linked Government pension, and because of that I don't have any clear need to invest in anything at all now. Having developed the habit of saving and investing all my life, it's a very pleasant change for me to no longer need to. I'm completely out of the stock market, having sold my portfolio in Feb '20 because, as a doctor, I saw the potential for a global crash caused by the looming pandemic.

The only reason I wish to sell the Nautilus is that its value makes me uneasy about people with bad intent spotting it. I'm waiting for it to be discontinued before selling on the advice of a watch dealer I spoke to, who thinks it will go up again.

[askdanny]

Originally Posted by David001

If things continue as they are doing then by the end of 2023 I think it's quite possible that you'll be able to do what we always could for many decades, i.e. walk into a Rolex shop and buy a Submariner.
.

“If things continue…”

This is less a prediction and more an extrapolation.

The real question mark is not what happens “if things continue” but whether they will indeed continue.

[David001]

Originally Posted by askdanny

“If things continue…”

This is less a prediction and more an extrapolation.

The real question mark is not what happens “if things continue” but whether they will indeed continue.

Of course it is, I've been right so far but we're all guessing and my guesses are based on what's actually unfolding. I can't imagine what type of unseen global event would turn things on their heads and send the markets spiralling up again.

But this has been done to death, how many more of these threads do we need? I wish I hadn't risen to the provocation. They all descend into a vehicle for angry people to dump their angst about the price fall.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by David001

But this has been done to death, how many more of these threads do we need?

On that point ,you are 100% correct,

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by David001

Of course it is, I've been right so far but we're all guessing and my guesses are based on what's actually unfolding. I can't imagine what type of unseen global event would turn things on their heads and send the markets spiralling up again.

But this has been done to death, how many more of these threads do we need? I wish I hadn't risen to the provocation. They all descend into a vehicle for angry people to dump their angst about the price fall.

Sadly, many people paid insane prices during a crazy COVID bubble. They have already lost money. Often they claim they don't care about the money but the sensitivity many display when falling prices are discussed suggests otherwise.

I have no doubt we will return to MSRP. Just a matter of time. Normal business will be resumed. There may be dead cat bounces along the way but we are heading back to MSRP, even discounts. ADs will resist but the market will prevail. Rolex pumping out a million watches a year is like gravity, always pulling prices down to MSRP. When the flippers and the spivs disappear you will be left with those people who just want to buy a watch: collectors, people buying for birthdays, for special anniversaries etc.

Prices crashing and availability are the issues at the moment, so it not surprising they are discussed. Just skip those threads or start your own thread about what you do want to discuss, if they cause anxiety.

For youngsters who only became interested in Rolex watches during the last few years it may seem incredible to them that normal is buying a watch at MSRP or even with a discount. Paying x2 or x3 the retail price is abnormal and it has been amazing to see how people behave during a bubble.

The end of COVID, prices returning to normal, the end of shortages, the world reopening, travel getting back to normal and governments and citizens living sensibly and within their means, paying their bills, is great news. The end of the amatuer flipper, whatever they are flipping, is great news. We should be optimistic about the future. Being able to buy the products we want again is good news. The last few COVID years were never going to continue indefinitely. May they never return.

Those who got caught up in the bubble. Cut you losses now, if you still can, or just enjoy your watches and learn from the experience.