Prices in anticipated 2023 recession ...

[doyall]

Do prices for used pieces typically fall during a recessionary period or will they increase in conjunction with any list price increases by Rolex?

I haven't kept tract of watch price trends during the last 3 recessions, so I ask thinking someone here surely has.

Can't help but think that as long as inflation stays high, prices new go higher and prices used stay high.

[S7gpt]

well I am certainly no expert but what I have seen in the last 6 months is price increases from AD's and reductions in the grey market !

[LC23]

Originally Posted by S7gpt

well I am certainly no expert but what I have seen in the last 6 months is price increases from AD's and reductions in the grey market !

2x

[enjoythemusic]

Retail price increases due to the expected ~9% devaluation in the Dollar, perhaps 11% for the Brit Pound and Euro.... If only there was a stable currency, there would be no need to increase prices.

[Calatrava r]

Many of the used Rolex watch models are considerably above MSRP so a slight rise in list prices will not affect those much and the used market supply and demand will determine those prices. But generally, as MSRP rises, the models selling used just at, a little above or below list will see an increase on the used market in a stable market. Should demand for Rolex tank at ADs, cases full up and discounting returns, the prices on the used markets will also tank as much and most likely a lot more. Why buy used when you can buy new unless the used price is right. (Which means low)

[Watchsprings]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Many of the used Rolex watch models are considerably above MSRP so a slight rise in list prices will not affect those much and the used market supply and demand will determine those prices. But generally, as MSRP rises, the models selling used just at, a little above or below list will see an increase on the used market in a stable market. Should demand for Rolex tank at ADs, cases full up and discounting returns, the prices on the used markets will also tank as much and most likely a lot more. Why buy used when you can buy new unless the used price is right. (Which means low)

I agree ^

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by Calatrava r

Many of the used Rolex watch models are considerably above MSRP so a slight rise in list prices will not affect those much and the used market supply and demand will determine those prices. But generally, as MSRP rises, the models selling used just at, a little above or below list will see an increase on the used market in a stable market. Should demand for Rolex tank at ADs, cases full up and discounting returns, the prices on the used markets will also tank as much and most likely a lot more. Why buy used when you can buy new unless the used price is right. (Which means low)

Really well said Bob

[jayprezzi]

Price will increase yoy. This will help combat the grey market.

[Eric-London]

Originally Posted by jayprezzi

Price will increase yoy. This will help combat the grey market.

Lol

[wjv4200]

Lmao

[Polar Bear]

As most Grey Market Youtubers like to say: there may be a market correction, but the bubble hasnt burst yet, and i doubt it will
Especially now that Rolex is in the CPO game. They now have the ability to directly control the new and pre owned markets
Allowing ADs to discount makes little sense when you can now restrict supply in a down market and shunt your customers over to the CPO case

[Skabadi]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

As most Grey Market Youtubers like to say: there may be a market correction, but the bubble hasnt burst yet, and i doubt it will
Especially now that Rolex is in the CPO game. They now have the ability to directly control the new and pre owned markets
Allowing ADs to discount makes little sense when you can now restrict supply in a down market and shunt your customers over to the CPO case

Can’t agree more. I think most are discounting the effect of CPO. Only one reason imhp for rolex to enter pre owned and that is to control secondary prices and from what I’ve seen from Bucherer its only going in one direction and ain’t down…

[Swiftneck]

Originally Posted by Polar Bear

As most Grey Market Youtubers like to say: there may be a market correction, but the bubble hasnt burst yet, and i doubt it will
Especially now that Rolex is in the CPO game. They now have the ability to directly control the new and pre owned markets
Allowing ADs to discount makes little sense when you can now restrict supply in a down market and shunt your customers over to the CPO case

So a 50% decrease in prices on the most hyped watches is not a bubble busting?

And Rolex will change there business model from selling new watches with 5-20.000 margin. And start selling warranty cards for old watches 200 bucks a piece instead.

Listening to grey market youtubers is properly the last thing you want to do if you care about your money..



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[Skabadi]

Originally Posted by Swiftneck

So a 50% decrease in prices on the most hyped watches is not a bubble busting?

And Rolex will change there business model from selling new watches with 5-20.000 margin. And start selling warranty cards for old watches 200 bucks a piece instead.

Listening to grey market youtubers is properly the last thing you want to do if you care about your money..



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Using your logic that would up the price of preowned if rolex is less focused on new

[Swiftneck]

Originally Posted by Skabadi

Using your logic that would up the price of preowned if rolex is less focused on new

Yes of course prices will go up if they produce less new watches, and put all their effort in resale of old pieces. But I don't think they will.

I think Rolex have been waiting to introduce their CPO program until now/spring 2023 because they know we will reach a more normal market within the next half year. A market where used watches sells below new ones at AD's for almost every model.

And when the next bull market start in 6-7 year, the new faktory will be ready to meet demand.

If Rolex knew that they would never meet demand, they would have increased msrp to marketprice, and take the money for them self, and te AD's instead of giving it to flippers and grey market.

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[Skabadi]

Originally Posted by Swiftneck

Yes of course prices will go up if they produce less new watches, and put all their effort in resale of old pieces. But I don't think they will.

I think Rolex have been waiting to introduce their CPO program until now/spring 2023 because they know we will reach a more normal market within the next half year. A market where used watches sells below new ones at AD's for almost every model.

And when the next bull market start in 6-7 year, the new faktory will be ready to meet demand.

If Rolex knew that they would never meet demand, they would have increased msrp to marketprice, and take the money for them self, and te AD's instead of giving it to flippers and grey market.

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That’s possible but it’s a very weak argument imho. Rolex craves exclusivity so will never want their products to be sold on the cheap. Look at Bucherer, they are already selling CPO way above market price. Once the CPO program solidifies its only a matter of time when greys will follow suit - probably slightly cheaper to be competitive

[JoeJoeBobo]

MSRP and then whatever the market will bear.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by doyall

Do prices for used pieces typically fall during a recessionary period or will they increase in conjunction with any list price increases by Rolex?

I haven't kept tract of watch price trends during the last 3 recessions, so I ask thinking someone here surely has.

Can't help but think that as long as inflation stays high, prices new go higher and prices used stay high.

It all depends on what kind of recession we have. If people lose their jobs or get wiped out in the market and need to raise cash, they might sell valuable items and Rolexes are traditionally quite liquid. That's why the Great Recession was such a good time to buy a Rolex.

Anecdotally, a grey I've done business with several times over the last 25 years is starting to build a Rolex inventory again (currently 11 Subs), and has marked down quite a few of them in the last couple weeks. Not by a lot, but still going in the right direction both in terms of inventory and pricing.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by doyall

Can't help but think that as long as inflation stays high, prices new go higher and prices used stay high.

Says the fly-by-night dealer that joined this month

Stop trying to artificially pump up your inventory.

[Vince M.]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

Says the fly-by-night dealer that joined this month

Stop trying to artificially pump up your inventory.

He/they can pump all they want, nobody has any money, especially for 2x msrp rolex.

[doyall]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

Says the fly-by-night dealer that joined this month

Stop trying to artificially pump up your inventory.

I trust the chuckle means you jest. If not, you couldn't be more off base.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by doyall

I trust the chuckle means you jest. If not, you couldn't be more off base.

Indeed it was as there have been several dealers disguised as members on these forums as of late trying to stimulate demand and prop up the market. If in fact, you are not one of them, then welcome to the forums.

To answer your question, I would largely agree with Calatrava_r, though the demand side of the equation appears to be drying up by the day (retail as well as secondary/grey market).

[TswaneNguni]

1.05 million annual production (Morgan Stanley/LuxeConsult estimate 2021).

Recession,no recession ,there will always be plenty money around in the world to gobble them up .

Annual increase on MRSP is the real long term trend to follow .
New goes up,used goes up and in between we have silly seasons ..

What is more important is the world wide decrease in safety with your physical association with the Rolex on your wrist .
It may become the biggest factor in the white glove after-market pricing.

[LJubel328]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

What is more important is the world wide decrease in safety with your physical association with the Rolex on your wrist .
It may become the biggest factor in the white glove after-market pricing.

Agreed, I personally have moved on to other brands that fall under the radar. They are also a major talking point for individuals who recognize the references as they are more of IYKYK type of timepieces.

I'm shocked you even wear anything down in jo'burg

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by LJubel328

Says the fly-by-night dealer that joined this month

Stop trying to artificially pump up your inventory.

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[Kirk Lazarus]

Originally Posted by Hollie_Rollie

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I wouldn’t laugh too much. Your BLRO for sale thread in the classifieds with constant price adjustments wasn’t exactly pretty.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=853768

[JSolution]

Originally Posted by Kirk Lazarus

I wouldn’t laugh too much. Your BLRO for sale thread in the classifieds with constant price adjustments wasn’t exactly pretty.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showthread.php?t=853768

I was going to comment it’s pretty petty to bring up a members old post but that is actually quite funny

[amh]

Rolex is historically recession-proof



The only question to be asked: Are the diamonds & Omegas connected to the Rolex recession-proof?

[messikens]

Originally Posted by JSolution

I was going to comment it’s pretty petty to bring up a members old post but that is actually quite funny

Damn that's harsh but on point .

I think the FS followed the pattern of what the Germans call "Gier frisst Hirn". Happy googling


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[Trailboss516]

Originally Posted by Kirk Lazarus

I wouldn’t laugh too much. Your BLRO for sale thread in the classifieds with constant price adjustments wasn’t exactly pretty.

Damn. I'd like to report a murder