So why are people really getting “the call” now?

[BillA]

Why is it different now? US economy seems to be skirting any type of recession, Unemployment numbers are low, consumers seem to be spending.

One Vlogger has this reason: Grays are not buying from AD’s anymore. AD buys from Rolex with a 40% discount. Rather than call someone on his list, the AD sells the watch to a gray above MSRP and the gray goes ahead and marks it up further. However, now the grays are not coming to the AD back door and buying anything, so now the AD is forced to call people from their lists.

I am not saying all AD’s do this, but some just may be doing this. So now we get “the call”…

I have not gotten the call.

[BraveBold]

Yeah, the economy “has been” chugging along fine. Give it a few more months to see the full brunt of rate hikes and depleted savings.

The percentage of Rolex buyers (and whole host of other luxury goods) that are stretching to grotesque levels is sizable. They are starting to run out of steam.

[996marty]

Interest rate rises and cost of living expenses in most places around the world would be my guess, but that will obviously be different from country to country.

[jb335]

Lol, you talk as if steel sport watches are back in the display case. I have an above average relationship with my AD and I have only been called once this year so far.

[JonaG]

“the AD is forced to call people from their lists.”
…Heaven forbid!

[4reRlxGuy]

Not hearing of people getting calls in socal

[shedlock2000]

Originally Posted by jb335

Lol, you talk as if steel sport watches are back in the display case. I have an above average relationship with my AD and I have only been called once this year so far.

I’m still on the list at 5 ADs, no call for nearly 6 years bow! Nearest AD is 350 miles away now Rolex have centralised their ADs — it’s not like I can keep popping in to say ‘hi’ when I’m passing! Part of the issue with the Rolex corporate model is that they’ve pulled too many ADs.


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[alphadweller]

Maybe less people are putting money into watches as an investment. Thus a lower demand and relative higher availability, although we're still far from pre-2017.

[Carguy87]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

Maybe less people are putting money into watches as an investment. Thus a lower demand and relative higher availability, although we're still far from pre-2017.

This is my first thought. With fewer people buying watches purely as investment tools with no regard for their quality as actual time pieces, it’s leaving more watches for those of us that truly enjoy them. All I can say is I just got the call for my BLNR over the weekend, a watch that I thought I might never see from an AD at retail, so whatever the cause is I’m ok with it.

[Andad]

There could still be a backlog of orders at AD's?

Give the availability situation a little more time and see where it goes?

[GradyPhilpott]

The great Rolex recession is here: How the Fed crushed the luxury watch boom

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...t-rates-2023-7

[djnick]

They deliver around a million watches a year it’s no surprise people are getting calls the last few years are an outlier

[trout_thumper21]

Less upside on gray market means fewer flippers, means more watches available for enthusiasts. Add in the fact that debt has become more expensive, and people can earn a respectable and consistent return on cash in savings accounts.

[MrMikee]

I think it’s because COVID is over and done with. No more lockdowns, no more government checks. Over the COVID period many had more spare cash because they didn’t go on vacation, stayed at home, no nights out etc. All that spare cash is now gone.

I saw a report where the population with an annual salary of less than 50K increased their luxury goods spending by 360% over that COVID period. This group will now suffer the most with cost of living, inflation etc.

That’s my take on it all.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by MrMikee

I think it’s because COVID is over and done with. No more lockdowns, no more government checks. Over the COVID period many had more spare cash because they didn’t go on vacation, stayed at home, no nights out etc. All that spare cash is now gone.

I saw a report where the population with an annual salary of less than 50K increased their luxury goods spending by 360% over that COVID period. This group will now suffer the most with cost of living, inflation etc.

That’s my take on it all.

I think it’s more about inflation than anything. But it seems like many Rolex models are still difficult to get as far as I can tell.


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[Chewbacca]

I got a call to cease and desist asking them.

[Fleetlord]

For many reasons, watches are a little more available than they were, but let's not get carried away.

There are still many, many, many people with plenty and plenty of means and desire to satisfy the AD requirements to acquire Rolex, especially in big cities.

Rolex will continue to cut doors in their pursuit of further controlling distribution, so I wouldn't expect the utopia of full Rolex cases anytime soon.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have not gotten the call.

Ask the Vlogger why not. They seem to know everything.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

Ask the Vlogger why not. They seem to know everything.

Thanks for the suggestion, will do, great idea.

[Podmornica]

Simple as this:

1.) 90% those on the waiting lists are flippers looking for a quick buck. Now that they cannot make a 100% profit on that BLNR like in 2020 and when greys are paying them close to retail in cash, most of them are having the cold feet as they were never interested in the watch in the first place other than make a flip. Not to bring the plain Submariner or a Datejust into argument. They would now be in a loss with those references.

AD Lists are clearing faster than ever as now only true enthusiasts and Rolex admirers are parting with their money to make a purchase.

2.) ROLEX FATIQUE. Most buyers were treated poorly and usually laughed upon asking for any professional reference while AD were selling them back door or to their preferred flippers.

3.) No one stays at the top forever. - Remember the pre 2017. You could get almost anything at 10-30% OFF MSRP. History repeats and people are gradually losing interest for certain items and are moving to different things.

[jrs146]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Simple as this:

1.) 90% those on the waiting lists are flippers looking for a quick buck. Now that they cannot make a 100% profit on that BLNR like in 2020 and when greys are paying them close to retail in cash, most of them are having the cold feet as they were never interested in the watch in the first place other than make a flip. Not to bring the plain Submariner or a Datejust into argument. They would now be in a loss with those references.

AD Lists are clearing faster than ever as now only true enthusiasts and Rolex admirers are parting with their money to make a purchase.

2.) ROLEX FATIQUE. Most buyers were treated poorly and usually laughed upon asking for any professional reference while AD were selling them back door or to their preferred flippers.

3.) No one stays at the top forever. - Remember the pre 2017. You could get almost anything at 10-30% OFF MSRP. History repeats and people are gradually losing interest for certain items and are moving to different things.

This is exactly it.... Still a long way from anyone walking in and getting a watch. But we are closer than further away.

[messikens]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Simple as this:

1.) 90% those on the waiting lists are flippers looking for a quick buck. Now that they cannot make a 100% profit on that BLNR like in 2020 and when greys are paying them close to retail in cash, most of them are having the cold feet as they were never interested in the watch in the first place other than make a flip. Not to bring the plain Submariner or a Datejust into argument. They would now be in a loss with those references.

AD Lists are clearing faster than ever as now only true enthusiasts and Rolex admirers are parting with their money to make a purchase.

2.) ROLEX FATIQUE. Most buyers were treated poorly and usually laughed upon asking for any professional reference while AD were selling them back door or to their preferred flippers.

3.) No one stays at the top forever. - Remember the pre 2017. You could get almost anything at 10-30% OFF MSRP. History repeats and people are gradually losing interest for certain items and are moving to different things.

+1 you covered almost everything.

Add to this :
Returns on investment (even at a savings account) are a lot more enticing at 5% than 0% over the last few years - so your opportunity cost is higher

Related - more ways to spend money outside of luxury watches. Travel is back in full swing (and insanely expensive), cruises, restaurants, theme parks etc. Suddenly sitting at home with a shiny toy on your wrist is less fun when the alternative is to blow $10k on a three weeks cruise with your family


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[samuel019]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

Simple as this:

1.) 90% those on the waiting lists are flippers looking for a quick buck. Now that they cannot make a 100% profit on that BLNR like in 2020 and when greys are paying them close to retail in cash, most of them are having the cold feet as they were never interested in the watch in the first place other than make a flip. Not to bring the plain Submariner or a Datejust into argument. They would now be in a loss with those references.

AD Lists are clearing faster than ever as now only true enthusiasts and Rolex admirers are parting with their money to make a purchase.

2.) ROLEX FATIQUE. Most buyers were treated poorly and usually laughed upon asking for any professional reference while AD were selling them back door or to their preferred flippers.

3.) No one stays at the top forever. - Remember the pre 2017. You could get almost anything at 10-30% OFF MSRP. History repeats and people are gradually losing interest for certain items and are moving to different things.

Thinking you meant “fatigue” and I agree. Very much so. On all 3

I’m in the camp of let’s just say we look at the last 50 years of buying a Rolex at an A D and if only 5 of those 50 have been the insane laughed out the store years which ones are more likely to return? The 45 or the 5? I’m betting the 45.

Granted I don’t think we will ever return to full cases and discounts but there will come a time when A D’s need the people they laughed out the store.

[Little machines]

Lets remember individuals that have 25,000 to 100,000 plus on a watch for the sake of owning a
hyped watch are thinking twice about leaving money in bank at 5 percent and waiting out the uncertainty in this economy .

[aboutadog]

Originally Posted by Little machines

Lets remember individuals that have 25,000 to 100,000 plus on a watch for the sake of owning a
hyped watch are thinking twice about leaving money in bank at 5 percent and waiting out the uncertainty in this economy .

This makes a lot of sense.

[bmwsubmariner]

I think hype can only last for so long. However I still haven’t seen gray prices drop enough. 116500s at $25-30k, BLNR’s for $15-20k etc. Curious what 6 months from now will look like.

[Henrimontgomery]

A grey friend told me he’s not buying Rolex anymore, as they are not moving.

[msnow]

I’m not buying it. It’s still just as hard as ever where I live in SoCal to get Rolexes.


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[SDR581]

Originally Posted by msnow

I’m not buying it. It’s still just as hard as ever where I live in SoCal to get Rolexes.


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Same here. I'm in the Philly suburbs and my SA said the market hasn't changed. Every Rolex has a VIP buyer before it even gets delivered

[Midlifegoals]

Rolex will do its best to maintain forced scarcity in the brand. I think the “getting the call” culture will be a part of Rolex experience until/unless demand is surpassed by supply to the point that Rolex is hit in the pocket book.


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