My take on the 2024 watch market

[Steele]

Here are my thoughts on the 2024 watch market at least here in the States (whatever happens in the US the EU will suck way worse in 2024)

As a collector for the last 20 years nothing has shocked me more than the Covid Spike for luxury goods which I didn’t see coming. But the crash that followed was almost impossible to NOT see like a tidal wave 🌊 In your face! it was so blatant a blind man saw it coming.
YES I sat on the sidelines for the entire HYPE run on watches but did get the wifey the usual Lux brands #FAIL on these but she’s happy and picked up a deal on a few vehicles that I’m in the GREEN up side on!
I was fortunate enough to have the time to really hustle the Auctions and Some Random watch shops to grab a few Gems 💎 from July 2023 to Nov 2023
I feel like timing is always key and patience is the real key to entry into any market.

Looking forward into 2024 we have the positive impact of these factors below

1- US presidential Elections (parties in power always flood the economy or stabilize the economy with QE and ear market monies sitting on the sidelines for Govt projects and if needed fresh money is printed and injected into the markets and or banks for more liquidity of readily available cash for the masses through easy credit channels)
2- This coming cycle we will see the FED lowering interest rates which in turn will turn on capital flow into Small Cap corporations
3- Lower interest rates mean that the 2 key and critical factors that have MOST slowed the economy down (lowered inflation) WINK WINK…. CARS, HOUSING will once again be turned back on.

THE CAUSE AND EFFECT
1- THE Masses are the ones being most affected by inflation
2- the masses are going to more Leary of over leveraging this time on CARs and HOUSING.
3- the masses throughout 2024 will keep getting pounded by inflation this will curb the wild spending habits we saw in 2022 I expect marginalized spending on LUX items to be more in line with Pre Covid spending
4- I expect rates to drop 2 points in 2024 running up to the elections spurring a more controlled spending spree


2024 WATCH MARKET YEAR IN MOTION
1- JAN TO MARCH I’m expecting the typical seasonal slowing in Watch sales for Jan to March
2- JAN TO MARCH I’m expecting Jan to March watch sales to take an additional 5%-8% hit due to tighter credit markets and lagging inflation than a typical post holiday season
3- APRIL to JUNE we should see renewed buying and a STABLE WATCH MARKET with Tax season and a lead up to the (HYPE up news of FED lowering interest rates) Rate reduction should start here! REMEMBER THERE IS A LAG FOR THIS TO HIT THE STREETS
4- JULY TO SEPT should see a TYPICAL drop in the market as THE LAG TAKES TIME TO TRICKLE DOWN
5- SEPT TO NOV we should see CASH FLOWING INTO THE STREETS PRE-ELECTION ———- WATCH MARKET PUMPS
6- Nov 6th new cycle begins based on who is elected. Markets still should be good through the holiday season

We will see a stable but bumpy year for the Watch market

By brand
ROLEX—— will have a rough year of AD Vs Buyers exhaustion from JAN TO SEPT Along with legal issues in the UK and possibly Spain and Italy.
Rolex will have their hands full with consolidating ADs and reassessing the CPO program adjusting pricing and the structure of the CPO program that is to this point I would consider a FAILURE in need of a revamp or deletion as the Jedi would say “I feel a balancing in the force”
I feel that Rolex will roll out a new SOP for ADs adjusting things back to a more stable market view. Looking at the future measured in decades not years as we all know that Rolex is the KING of the Long Game

AP——- The biggest failure by AP in 2024 will be TO MANY NEW DAMN RELEASES!!!!!!!! Supply will stay the same but availability will be easiest from JAN TO SEPT so get them while they are hot. JUST TO MANY New RELEASES TO CHOOSE FROM WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE HOMERUN PIECES

PATEK—— Patek has taken a UNEXPECTED WRONG TURN At the end of 2023 and let’s name them. 1- God Father 2- I’m calling them the DEAD END Rainbow BRIDGE COLLECTION
Ummmmm WTF talk about losing focus on the Customer. I feel that they will recognize this and rally with a (NEW SS Colorway for the GOAT pieces, aquanaut and Dial colorway for the Nautilus)

Vacheron—— Someone please for the love of God tell them to hire the exiting CEO for AP as a consultant! It’s like watching paint dry over there. Such a great watch brand with amazing infrastructure and Time Pieces but with so little actual marketing knowledge.
Unless changes are made they will Struggle Bus all through 2024. The Best Buy’s for value are in the Grey Market.

RM—— the life blood of this brand lives in Crypto Boys and Miami. If Bitcoin went to 10k and Miami fell into the ocean RM would go BK in a week. Jk maybe not a week but the struggle would be real.
Is it me or is RM the most traded in Brand ever? Everyone knows that the service on an RM is like mailing off your kidney inside of your leased Ferrari for 8-12 months then begging to have them back.

Here is the CURVE BALL OF 2024.

GET READY for Dubai or the UAE to scoop up a hot independent or two and rocket them to the big leagues.

[Willyjo]

Interesting take OP! Thanks for your views. I think spot on overall market gyrations.

AP - agree. Had a sneak peak on 2024. More new releases than you can imagine.

VC - best unloved/understood high horology. I am looking to pick up some bargains throughout 2024

The Dubai angle - interesting. Do you know more than you are telling us?

Merry Christmas all!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

Interesting take OP! Thanks for your views. I think spot on overall market gyrations.

AP - agree. Had a sneak peak on 2024. More new releases than you can imagine.

Please do tell if you can! I just hope there are some more complications and a stainless steel 41 mm case (dual time, GMT, etc.). Also, very excited to see the new openworked.

OP - I tend to agree with almost all of your observations. It’s going to be a particularly interesting year given economic trajectory.

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

AP - agree. Had a sneak peak on 2024. More new releases than you can imagine.

Share some morsels with the common folk

I had assumed they'd take it easy before the 150th anniversary in 2025. ROO 30th anniversary was not as big as I had imagined, so curious why 2024 would see a lot of activity - any particular line that will see the most activity?

[Willyjo]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Share some morsels with the common folk

I had assumed they'd take it easy before the 150th anniversary in 2025. ROO 30th anniversary was not as big as I had imagined, so curious why 2024 would see a lot of activity - any particular line that will see the most activity?

Going off memory

15407 openwork being replaced w new model (forgot new ref number) w new calibre

They are coming out w a yellow gold with smoked dial ROC 26240BA. Looks amazing

QP undated ref 26674SG (sand gold new alloy) Some new function w the crown

3 hand ROO 43mm blue ceramic bezel. Looks super cool and very reasonable price point

There are quite a few others, this is what I remember


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[hl0m4n]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

Going off memory

15407 openwork being replaced w new model (forgot new ref number) w new calibre

They are coming out w a yellow gold with smoked dial ROC 26240BA. Looks amazing

QP undated ref 26674SG (sand gold new alloy) Some new function w the crown

3 hand ROO 43mm blue ceramic bezel. Looks super cool and very reasonable price point

There are quite a few others, this is what I remember


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

does the 43mm blue offshore resemble the one currently available minus the ceramic case?

[Whichwwtch]

When will we start to see the 2024 releases?

[TheHolyLuck]

Interesting thoughts thanks for sharing. New releases from AP : a lot a new womens model as my SA told me 3 weeks ago.

[Watchlurker11]

Originally Posted by TheHolyLuck

Interesting thoughts thanks for sharing. New releases from AP : a lot a new womens model as my SA told me 3 weeks ago.

i did not get a sneak peek, but my SA communicated the same (lots of 37mm and smaller)

[Calatrava r]

Originally Posted by Watchlurker11

i did not get a sneak peek, but my SA communicated the same (lots of 37mm and smaller)

Hopefully, some of the 37mm new releases are geared to gent's market. I had heard the 37mm size was now considered a lady's model by AP.

[~JJ]

Another angle is there appeared to be a lot of FOMO… for instance the guy with a 5 piece collection and all five are Rolex and three are even the same watch in different bezel colors. This makes since if you are at the Mike Wood diver collector level (meaning 100 mechanical divers with small nuance differences that only a collector could appreciate), but for the average WIS it’s a bit much of follow the hype train. Once the fad adrenaline high wears off, they sell the rainbow collection and follow a new/different hype hobby. I don’t think, even with an improved economic standing, that we will ever return to what we just witnessed. But who knows.

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

Another angle is there appeared to be a lot of FOMO… for instance the guy with a 5 piece collection and all five are Rolex and three are even the same watch in different bezel colors. This makes since if you are at the Mike Wood diver collector level (meaning 100 mechanical divers with small nuance differences that only a collector could appreciate), but for the average WIS it’s a bit much of follow the hype train. Once the fad adrenaline high wears off, they sell the rainbow collection and follow a new/different hype hobby. I don’t think, even with an improved economic standing, that we will ever return to what we just witnessed. But who knows.

This makes sense. Some new level of baseline higher than ever before but below the peak was probably achieved with the "watch as an alternative investment" concept entering the zeitgeist.

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by Steele

Here are my thoughts on the 2024 watch market at least here in the States (whatever happens in the US the EU will suck way worse in 2024)



As a collector for the last 20 years nothing has shocked me more than the Covid Spike for luxury goods which I didn’t see coming. But the crash that followed was almost impossible to NOT see like a tidal wave In your face! it was so blatant a blind man saw it coming.

YES I sat on the sidelines for the entire HYPE run on watches but did get the wifey the usual Lux brands #FAIL on these but she’s happy and picked up a deal on a few vehicles that I’m in the GREEN up side on!

I was fortunate enough to have the time to really hustle the Auctions and Some Random watch shops to grab a few Gems from July 2023 to Nov 2023

I feel like timing is always key and patience is the real key to entry into any market.



Looking forward into 2024 we have the positive impact of these factors below



1- US presidential Elections (parties in power always flood the economy or stabilize the economy with QE and ear market monies sitting on the sidelines for Govt projects and if needed fresh money is printed and injected into the markets and or banks for more liquidity of readily available cash for the masses through easy credit channels)

2- This coming cycle we will see the FED lowering interest rates which in turn will turn on capital flow into Small Cap corporations

3- Lower interest rates mean that the 2 key and critical factors that have MOST slowed the economy down (lowered inflation) WINK WINK…. CARS, HOUSING will once again be turned back on.



THE CAUSE AND EFFECT

1- THE Masses are the ones being most affected by inflation

2- the masses are going to more Leary of over leveraging this time on CARs and HOUSING.

3- the masses throughout 2024 will keep getting pounded by inflation this will curb the wild spending habits we saw in 2022 I expect marginalized spending on LUX items to be more in line with Pre Covid spending

4- I expect rates to drop 2 points in 2024 running up to the elections spurring a more controlled spending spree





2024 WATCH MARKET YEAR IN MOTION

1- JAN TO MARCH I’m expecting the typical seasonal slowing in Watch sales for Jan to March

2- JAN TO MARCH I’m expecting Jan to March watch sales to take an additional 5%-8% hit due to tighter credit markets and lagging inflation than a typical post holiday season

3- APRIL to JUNE we should see renewed buying and a STABLE WATCH MARKET with Tax season and a lead up to the (HYPE up news of FED lowering interest rates) Rate reduction should start here! REMEMBER THERE IS A LAG FOR THIS TO HIT THE STREETS

4- JULY TO SEPT should see a TYPICAL drop in the market as THE LAG TAKES TIME TO TRICKLE DOWN

5- SEPT TO NOV we should see CASH FLOWING INTO THE STREETS PRE-ELECTION ———- WATCH MARKET PUMPS

6- Nov 6th new cycle begins based on who is elected. Markets still should be good through the holiday season



We will see a stable but bumpy year for the Watch market



By brand

ROLEX—— will have a rough year of AD Vs Buyers exhaustion from JAN TO SEPT Along with legal issues in the UK and possibly Spain and Italy.

Rolex will have their hands full with consolidating ADs and reassessing the CPO program adjusting pricing and the structure of the CPO program that is to this point I would consider a FAILURE in need of a revamp or deletion as the Jedi would say “I feel a balancing in the force”

I feel that Rolex will roll out a new SOP for ADs adjusting things back to a more stable market view. Looking at the future measured in decades not years as we all know that Rolex is the KING of the Long Game



AP——- The biggest failure by AP in 2024 will be TO MANY NEW DAMN RELEASES!!!!!!!! Supply will stay the same but availability will be easiest from JAN TO SEPT so get them while they are hot. JUST TO MANY New RELEASES TO CHOOSE FROM WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE HOMERUN PIECES



PATEK—— Patek has taken a UNEXPECTED WRONG TURN At the end of 2023 and let’s name them. 1- God Father 2- I’m calling them the DEAD END Rainbow BRIDGE COLLECTION

Ummmmm WTF talk about losing focus on the Customer. I feel that they will recognize this and rally with a (NEW SS Colorway for the GOAT pieces, aquanaut and Dial colorway for the Nautilus)



Vacheron—— Someone please for the love of God tell them to hire the exiting CEO for AP as a consultant! It’s like watching paint dry over there. Such a great watch brand with amazing infrastructure and Time Pieces but with so little actual marketing knowledge.

Unless changes are made they will Struggle Bus all through 2024. The Best Buy’s for value are in the Grey Market.



RM—— the life blood of this brand lives in Crypto Boys and Miami. If Bitcoin went to 10k and Miami fell into the ocean RM would go BK in a week. Jk maybe not a week but the struggle would be real.

Is it me or is RM the most traded in Brand ever? Everyone knows that the service on an RM is like mailing off your kidney inside of your leased Ferrari for 8-12 months then begging to have them back.



Here is the CURVE BALL OF 2024.



GET READY for Dubai or the UAE to scoop up a hot independent or two and rocket them to the big leagues.

Do you even like watches?

[Steele]

Originally Posted by zengineer

Do you even like watches?

My collection says. YES 😂

My watch addiction says. I need counseling and adult supervision when left unattended with my AMEX

[thenewrick]

I think it was mostly social media driven. That is slowing down. People are less hyped by the same old watches they’ve seen over and over. I see things continue to slow down and 2nd hand values going down considerably more.

[hambone1983]

I think you got the political motivation right about growth of money supply, but it's just not going to happen. If there is easing it will be on the rate side, and only in response to lower inflation. Politicians cannot control this, it is strictly a central bank issue. Pressure? Try to influence? sure. But that is never going to make the Fed act.

As for QE, again a Fed issue. And they only do that when they have no other way to push down rates. Assets held by the Fed have more than doubled since the pandemic, they have years left to unwind what they've accumulated. If they are buying treasuries again this year that would be disastrous, and undertaken only to avert failed auctions. Trust me, that is a scenario that will not help anyone, least of all the market for luxury goods.

[Steele]

Originally Posted by hambone1983

I think you got the political motivation right about growth of money supply, but it's just not going to happen. If there is easing it will be on the rate side, and only in response to lower inflation. Politicians cannot control this, it is strictly a central bank issue. Pressure? Try to influence? sure. But that is never going to make the Fed act.

As for QE, again a Fed issue. And they only do that when they have no other way to push down rates. Assets held by the Fed have more than doubled since the pandemic, they have years left to unwind what they've accumulated. If they are buying treasuries again this year that would be disastrous, and undertaken only to avert failed auctions. Trust me, that is a scenario that will not help anyone, least of all the market for luxury goods.

QE would be Lowering interest rates (Growing the money supply) and that’s already announced for 2024, and also inflation has only gone down in the two main sectors CARS/HOUSING while food prices, Gas and basic needs has remained high also Insurance prices are sky rocketing and very little is said about this. Also the housing is also adjusting in different markets at drastically different rates. For example Rents in San Francisco are down by 33% and in other markets as little as 5%
Also “general good/needs” inflation is barely budging and the FED is lowering rates still. This is a clear push to inject more capital into the economy when they should NOT be taking their foot off the brake pedal.

You are correct the FED is not a part of the Government but the Government still controls the banking and the markets in general (mostly with poor policy decisions) i.e. National Debt 😂 is a great example of monetary manipulation

You are 100% correct The FED has been dumping money off their books Shrinking it’s balance sheet for a while now we where at almost 9 trillion and now down to 8 trillion LORD HELP US! The fed is still on pace to dump off 100 million a month

MEANWHILE the money printer for the Wars in Israel and Ukraine is still running let’s see if that continues. Fueling inflation WITH NEW DEBT AT HIGHER RATES

UNLESS WE GET A BLACK SWAN EVENT the markets will stabilize and fluctuate as rates signal the market to move where it wants the market to go.
—— lower rates = Market goes up
—— higher rates = market goes down

As for lux goods I expect the lower rates will increase easy/cheap money flows back into the economy and dumb money does dumb things

[Krash]

Originally Posted by Steele

QE would be Lowering interest rates (Growing the money supply) and that’s already announced for 2024, and also inflation has only gone down in the two main sectors CARS/HOUSING while food prices, Gas and basic needs has remained high also Insurance prices are sky rocketing and very little is said about this. Also the housing is also adjusting in different markets at drastically different rates. For example Rents in San Francisco are down by 33% and in other markets as little as 5%
Also “general good/needs” inflation is barely budging and the FED is lowering rates still. This is a clear push to inject more capital into the economy when they should NOT be taking their foot off the brake pedal.

You are correct the FED is not a part of the Government but the Government still controls the banking and the markets in general (mostly with poor policy decisions) i.e. National Debt is a great example of monetary manipulation

You are 100% correct The FED has been dumping money off their books Shrinking it’s balance sheet for a while now we where at almost 9 trillion and now down to 8 trillion LORD HELP US! The fed is still on pace to dump off 100 million a month

MEANWHILE the money printer for the Wars in Israel and Ukraine is still running let’s see if that continues. Fueling inflation WITH NEW DEBT AT HIGHER RATES

UNLESS WE GET A BLACK SWAN EVENT the markets will stabilize and fluctuate as rates signal the market to move where it wants the market to go.
—— lower rates = Market goes up
—— higher rates = market goes down

As for lux goods I expect the lower rates will increase easy/cheap money flows back into the economy and dumb money does dumb things

Saying inflation is barely budging is like saying the ship isn’t sinking anymore after it’s already at the bottom of the ocean.

Fact is, we haven’t had inflation this bad since the 70s. Also, inflation is still rising, but not at the same rate. That’s an important distinction that the media fails to convey.

Many products are never going back to what they were. Real estate ebbs and flows. But the price of everyday products that people buy at the Supermarket aren’t going down.

In terms of the Stock Market, I’m bullish, but I’m always bullish. I remember when they shut everything down because of COVID and the stock market tanked. I moved about $500,000 into the stock market when everyone thought the world was coming to an end. I doubled my money in no time. It wasn’t a huge investment, because it still was a little scary, but I’m heavily invested in the market now and will continue to be no matter what’s going on in the world.


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[Steele]

Originally Posted by Krash

Saying inflation is barely budging is like saying the ship isn’t sinking anymore after it’s already at the bottom of the ocean.

Fact is, we haven’t had inflation this bad since the 70s. Also, inflation is still rising, but not at the same rate. That’s an important distinction that the media fails to convey.

Many products are never going back to what they were. Real estate ebbs and flows. But the price of everyday products that people buy at the Supermarket aren’t going down.

In terms of the Stock Market, I’m bullish, but I’m always bullish. I remember when they shut everything down because of COVID and the stock market tanked. I moved about $500,000 into the stock market when everyone thought the world was coming to an end. I doubled my money in no time. It wasn’t a huge investment, because it still was a little scary, but I’m heavily invested in the market now and will continue to be no matter what’s going on in the world.


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I agree 100% with everything here and WELL PLAYED SIR!!! I also got into OIL "NRGU" and Made a killing I also snagged stocks like MGM and CCL that got murdered and did good on those I did buy Disney and DIDNT GET OUT!!!! Still stuck in some of that!!!!

Commodities Sir!

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Steele

I agree 100% with everything here and WELL PLAYED SIR!!! I also got into OIL "NRGU" and Made a killing I also snagged stocks like MGM and CCL that got murdered and did good on those I did buy Disney and DIDNT GET OUT!!!! Still stuck in some of that!!!!

Commodities Sir!

Commodities = sht you can't make up

[hambone1983]

Originally Posted by Steele

QE would be Lowering interest rates (Growing the money supply) and that’s already announced for 2024, and also inflation has only gone down in the two main sectors CARS/HOUSING while food prices, Gas and basic needs has remained high also Insurance prices are sky rocketing and very little is said about this. Also the housing is also adjusting in different markets at drastically different rates. For example Rents in San Francisco are down by 33% and in other markets as little as 5%
Also “general good/needs” inflation is barely budging and the FED is lowering rates still. This is a clear push to inject more capital into the economy when they should NOT be taking their foot off the brake pedal.

You are correct the FED is not a part of the Government but the Government still controls the banking and the markets in general (mostly with poor policy decisions) i.e. National Debt 😂 is a great example of monetary manipulation

You are 100% correct The FED has been dumping money off their books Shrinking it’s balance sheet for a while now we where at almost 9 trillion and now down to 8 trillion LORD HELP US! The fed is still on pace to dump off 100 million a month

MEANWHILE the money printer for the Wars in Israel and Ukraine is still running let’s see if that continues. Fueling inflation WITH NEW DEBT AT HIGHER RATES

UNLESS WE GET A BLACK SWAN EVENT the markets will stabilize and fluctuate as rates signal the market to move where it wants the market to go.
—— lower rates = Market goes up
—— higher rates = market goes down

As for lux goods I expect the lower rates will increase easy/cheap money flows back into the economy and dumb money does dumb things

QE is an unconventional way to lower rates, and one that is completely unnecessary as long as traditional FOMC tools are available. And the Fed is not growing the money supply, rather it is shrinking it to reign in inflation. All this QE crap plus fiscal stimulus grew the money supply by 50% (from $14T to $21T). It has only come down 5% off its high. They are not entering into a new round of QE asset purchases. It was that growth in money supply that caused all this inflation in the first place.

The Fed is not really "dumping off" securities; rather it is letting the assets mature and not reinvesting the proceeds. They just wave their magic monetary wand and make that money disappear (sort of). It is a good thing on the heels of an unprecedented expansionary cycle.

[Steele]

Originally Posted by hambone1983

QE is an unconventional way to lower rates, and one that is completely unnecessary as long as traditional FOMC tools are available. And the Fed is not growing the money supply, rather it is shrinking it to reign in inflation. All this QE crap plus fiscal stimulus grew the money supply by 50% (from $14T to $21T). It has only come down 5% off its high. They are not entering into a new round of QE asset purchases. It was that growth in money supply that caused all this inflation in the first place.

The Fed is not really "dumping off" securities; rather it is letting the assets mature and not reinvesting the proceeds. They just wave their magic monetary wand and make that money disappear (sort of). It is a good thing on the heels of an unprecedented expansionary cycle.

No matter how you look at it the money SUPPLY HAS NOT SHRUNK!!!! and is NOT shrinking! its just where its going is NOT into the Streets of main stream USA!!! COVID Money hit directly to the Streets in the US directly into the pockets of Americans.

Massive corporations like Blackrock, lockhead martin and other military industrial monsters are doing the HIDE THE MONEY MAGIC TRICK with the US GOVT!!!
here you go are you ready for this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
US government DUMPS AGING Military Hardware on Ukraine and now Israel and takes Billions of dollars and hands it to the military industrial complex to replenish the aging stockpiles and equipment with newer 4th and 5th gen equipment! the next war will be fought and won with the DRONE!

The "1" trillion dollars that we have dumped off the FEDs books is replaced by "2" trillion National Debt in 2023 alone that includes 113 billion so far to Ukraine with another 250 million in the pipeline and I believe 100 million to Israel
We drained off billions of $$$$$ in our strategic oil reserves that needs to be replaced at a much higher cost 2019=650 Million barrels Dec 2023=352M barrels
Also oil all the way back to 2015 averaged $55 a barrel now we sit at $75 a barrel to replace 300M barrels alone will cost us $22.5 Billion

We continue to drink from an empty well and its only gonna get worse until it gets better! because the US dollar for now is the worlds safety blanket!

[Moondoggy]

Interesting write up, however look forward to revisiting this thread in time.

[colpol]

Originally Posted by Moondoggy

Interesting write up, however look forward to revisiting this thread in time.

Same here. Good / interesting read

[1st amg]

I will refer back to this thread throughout the year. The interest rates and all should be a roller coaster and hopefully create hype again in the luxury industry. To me, it makes no difference in buying watches. It is what it is. Good write-up!

[1William]

Interesting take on the future. It will be interesting to watch.

[BroncoOne]

Don’t forget the expiration of the Fed’s program to shore up bank balance sheets where it allows banks to mark their treasury investments’ values artificially high rather than marking those assets to market.

That expires next spring and no one knows what that fallout will be. Also, the overnight bank lending Fed repo market has had hiccups, lastly out of sight unless you are looking.

We also have a looming fed government shutdown in Q1 2024.

Still, people who buy watches for cash will still have cash, probably even more, and unless supply of luxury watches increases dramatically, it will not dent high demand.

[RTG]

OP, that is quite an impressive post.

Originally Posted by Steele

As a collector for the last 20 years nothing has shocked me more than the Covid Spike for luxury goods which I didn’t see coming. But the crash that followed was almost impossible to NOT see like a tidal wave �� In your face! it was so blatant a blind man saw it coming.

YES I sat on the sidelines for the entire HYPE run on watches but did get the wifey the usual Lux brands #FAIL on these but she’s happy and picked up a deal on a few vehicles that I’m in the GREEN up side on!
I was fortunate enough to have the time to really hustle the Auctions and Some Random watch shops to grab a few Gems �� from July 2023 to Nov 2023

I had the exact same experience from 2020-2023. Totally lost interest during the crazy and found some great opportunities to end this year.

Originally Posted by Steele

Looking forward into 2024 we have the positive impact of these factors below

I don't see a stable 2024 at all. Free money in the form of low interest rates won't be back. That combined with inflation will eliminate a growing percentage of the middle class from buying worthless shiny trinkets. The western world is returning to the haves and have nots, abandoning ideas of a powerful middle class. There will not be enough 'haves' to keep all the balls in the air. At least not with regards to mass produced trinkets like watches. I don't expect anything to be worthless overnight, but the decline in aftermarket value will continue IMHO.

[enjoythemusic]

Interesting thread.

If i may humbly add.... Is it me, or are some mainstream brands trying to re-boot 'funky' 1970s designs?

[Carbon Brakes]

There are still a lot of people waiting on the sidelines for watches. Not saying this is going to pump secondary prices at all but values sinking extremely low is very unlikely. More people are paying attention to watches by a magnitude now, than they were say 5 years ago.