Thoughts on this trade?

[sportsfan0704]

I have an AP Edward piguet 15121OR, no box no papers that I’m considering trading for a Rolex blusey 16613. Both my watch and the watches I’m looking at are no box no papers. My AP is in good condition, running well, and has the original rose gold pin buckle. It’s a nice piece with Breguet numerals and a cool guilloche dial, but I’m really looking to add the blusey.

Looking at chrono24, there are far far fewer of the Edward piguet for sale than the blusey. The list prices for the AP go between 9 and 14k, whereas the 16613 is between 8500 and 12k. The one I’m looking at is 9500 flat. One dealer told me we would be very far apart on price, which seemed odd given where the market is today and the supply of the submariner both at that dealer and worldwide.

What are everyone’s thoughts on this potential trade? What would be fair for a dealer to ask me to add cash wise to get a deal done?


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[0nly5iv3Digits]

Don’t rely on C24 for accurate reflections on the market.

16613s are a dime a dozen. Your watch is considerably rarer. Think carefully.

[sportsfan0704]

Originally Posted by 0nly5iv3Digits

Don’t rely on C24 for accurate reflections on the market.

16613s are a dime a dozen. Your watch is considerably rarer. Think carefully.

It is definitely rarer, but my tastes have changed since I got it and I would like to add the 16613. When I was looking at c24, it was more to get an idea of sale price. I don’t understand how a dealer could ask for such a premium on top of my AP for a 166613 when they sell for the same and the AP brand is as strong as it is now. It’s hard to find AP for the price these sell for. Do you think an even swap is possible?

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by sportsfan0704

It is definitely rarer, but my tastes have changed since I got it and I would like to add the 16613. When I was looking at c24, it was more to get an idea of sale price. I don’t understand how a dealer could ask for such a premium on top of my AP for a 166613 when they sell for the same and the AP brand is as strong as it is now. It’s hard to find AP for the price these sell for. Do you think an even swap is possible?

How is the dealer going to make money on an even swap? If the expected sale price was the same on both watches, I'd expect the dealer to ask for 20-30% cash on top, or whatever their usual spread is.

[sportsfan0704]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

How is the dealer going to make money on an even swap? If the expected sale price was the same on both watches, I'd expect the dealer to ask for 20-30% cash on top, or whatever their usual spread is.

Well I know an even swap is out of the question. The way I look at is is this: if you have 5 blusey in stock and have been sitting on them for months, your profit is 0. If you take an AP that I think may be easier to move for them because 1) it’s harder to get and 2) the ap brand you just don’t see stuff in this price range, a swap in general will get movement faster than no swap.

With that said, of course there has to be some cash to make it worth their time. Every dealer is different but I don’t think the aim is 25-30% margins on watches under 10k dollars usually, is it?

Plus, if they bought the sub looking to get a 25% margin, then bake that margin into buying my watch and then sell it for the same price as the sub, it’s getting double margin, which is great for the dealer, but I can’t imagine that’s the only way to operate especially in this slow down of a market?


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[MILGAUSS88]

Originally Posted by sportsfan0704

Well I know an even swap is out of the question. The way I look at is is this: if you have 5 blusey in stock and have been sitting on them for months, your profit is 0. If you take an AP that I think may be easier to move for them because 1) it’s harder to get and 2) the ap brand you just don’t see stuff in this price range, a swap in general will get movement faster than no swap.

Take a look at completed sales on eBay.
The 16613 Sub has had 90 sales completed in the last 3 months.
Then take a look at completed sales for your watch. There are none.

Don't get me wrong it is a beautiful watch and top notch quality. But it has very low demand at this time. Maybe tastes will change in the future and it will be hot, but thats not the case now.

Here is the value chart for your watch, from Chrono24, it appears there was a 5 year stretch with out one selling.

[~JJ]

The dealer knows there are many more buyers for a blusey so he’s factoring sitting on yours until the right person walks in, even though the overall value is similar. Additionally, sounds like you are trying to trade with a dealer, which will never be straight up, even on similar value pieces… a friendly reminder they are business to make money and want a cut on both sides of the transaction. Seems like you are approaching this how friends would make a trade.

[sportsfan0704]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

The dealer knows there are many more buyers for a blusey so he’s factoring sitting on yours until the right person walks in, even though the overall value is similar. Additionally, sounds like you are trying to trade with a dealer, which will never be straight up, even on similar value pieces… a friendly reminder they are business to make money and want a cut on both sides of the transaction. Seems like you are approaching this how friends would make a trade.

Well I am factoring that in. There has to be money to cover their overhead and what not. But there’s a difference between 1,000 and 3,500 for example, the latter being way too high for a watch That I do think they can sell quickly

[77T]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

The dealer knows there are many more buyers for a blusey so he’s factoring sitting on yours until the right person walks in, even though the overall value is similar. Additionally, sounds like you are trying to trade with a dealer, which will never be straight up, even on similar value pieces… a friendly reminder they are business to make money and want a cut on both sides of the transaction. Seems like you are approaching this how friends would make a trade.

I agree.

For the OP, the Bluesy asking price has the dealers profit margin baked-in. It is a higher demand item. But the dealer already has capital invested and wants a sale.

Your watch may go for the same range of price, and may be rarer, but it hasn't the same high demand. Either way, the dealer will offer 30% than an asking price to make a profit.

So no even trades on the deal you wish for.


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[Lininq]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

The dealer knows there are many more buyers for a blusey so he’s factoring sitting on yours until the right person walks in, even though the overall value is similar. Additionally, sounds like you are trying to trade with a dealer, which will never be straight up, even on similar value pieces… a friendly reminder they are business to make money and want a cut on both sides of the transaction. Seems like you are approaching this how friends would make a trade.

Exactly! The dealer is factoring in demand and taking a cut from both sides. It’s all part of the business, even if the values are similar.

[MILGAUSS88]

I bought an AP Tradition from a large dealer and got 20% off on the price, and it was already the lowest priced one available. And I knew they had it for quite some time.

So, yeah I could see him wanting $3,500 on top of the trade.

[sportsfan0704]

Is there anyone who thinks I should absolutely
Not make such a trade even if the dealer let’s say says for 1500 on top?




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[Token74]

If doing a trade with a dealer, they are getting the best deal. The best thing to do from a financial perspective is to sell privately and then buy privately. But this adds hassle and risk to the sales process and risk with the purchasing process. The second best financially is to sell privately and by trade. This retains the selling hassle and risk but reduces the buying risk. The worst financially is to trade, but this is the least hassle/risk route.

I would these days prefer the trade option personally as I don’t have time for hassle and my risk appetite is low.


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[sportsfan0704]

Originally Posted by Token74

If doing a trade with a dealer, they are getting the best deal. The best thing to do from a financial perspective is to sell privately and then buy privately. But this adds hassle and risk to the sales process and risk with the purchasing process. The second best financially is to sell privately and by trade. This retains the selling hassle and risk but reduces the buying risk. The worst financially is to trade, but this is the least hassle/risk route.

I would these days prefer the trade option personally as I don’t have time for hassle and my risk appetite is low.


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The age old dilemma, and a dilemma that dealers take advantage of!


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[Token74]

Originally Posted by sportsfan0704

The age old dilemma, and a dilemma that dealers take advantage of!


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So true!!


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[sportsfan0704]

I love the blusey but it’s probably worth it to keep the AP. I own it at a good price, it’s a unique piece, and it’s undervalued in the market.


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