Royal Oak Skeleton Ceramic

[chadwick4eva]

Looks like the rumors of a ceramic skeleton are true- amazing piece. The contrast of the gunmetal movement, rose gold accents of the balance wheels and hands, and the black ceramic make it very legible compared to some of the other skeletons. Looks like something the terminator would wear- a badass watch.

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/en/wa....OO.1225CE.01/

Retail is $80,300. Guessing this one will hit 150k+ on gray.

Too bad they keep making watches that people don't actually want (most of the codes, a bunch of huge and ugly ROOs, way too many different watches for ladies, Jules Audemar, Milleniary) and nobody will ever be able to buy one of these at retail anyway.

I think some of these watchmakers really need to study up on product market fit- they're letting secondary dealers capture a significant amount of profit that they either could be capitalizing on, or they could just produce more watches that people actually want so that the secondary market wasn't nearly as hot as it is. This would also lead to a happier customer base and fewer people with bad tastes in their mouths after a poor experience not being able to spend tens of thousands on the watch they actually want. Oh well, it's their decision and their loss at the end of the day to be stubborn about it.

[dauster]

we all know by now that artificial scarcity and a high resell value on the secondary market is something the watch companies and other luxury companies desire and want. Who wants an IWC, Breguet or Panerai (yes some but not comparable to AP, PP or Rolex).

If everybody could get a ceramic openworked by walking in and paying 80k - I am sure demand would decrease.

Same goes for the birkin bags by hermes and the list goes on. Frustrating for sure but that's the world we live in.

What I dont understand is why they stop production on pieces that everyone wants and where annual production is extremely limited anyway- CE PC for example. I don't get it.

[chiscott_29]

I think this is $225k to $250k on the secondary market and you’ll not see hardly any of them out there for a year or two. There’s just way too much desire for this model and it’s going to be extremely limited given the work that has to go into the movement and the bracelet finishing. I am willing to bet that even the typical AP heavy hitters will be waiting for this. The good (even great) AP customer isn’t going to have a chance. And I’m guessing the even more absurd secondary premiums will also drive the 15407st/or and 15305 even higher than they are now.

I won’t comment on why AP doesn’t produce more. I am frustrated as well, but clearly it’s not going to change. The move of the top watch brands to the “Birken” model is doing nothing but making them more profitable and desirable due to increased MSRPs and true exclusivity.

Also, I think you’ll see more “normalized” sizing on the ROO, much like we’re seeing with the ROC. The Offshore has gained in popularity quite a bit the past two years and I think it makes sense to trim them down and appeal to more people. But, we’ll see what happens!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[OH2004]

I doubt this will push up 15407. Yes it’s true it will be very difficult to get it even if you are a heavy hitter. To the OP. If you can walk in to any store and buy any watch you want, you will probably not want it. Think back to early 2017, you were able to get a jumbo and nautilus at most ADs. Go back to 2014, my AD was begging me to take an aquanaut.

[GS93108]

If these are suddenly worth double/triple retail then that's a joyful position to be in from an investment perspective. However, to me then that detracts from the experiential joy of being able to wear it every day. Retail price suits my risk level, replacement price if I were to lose it/be mugged doesn't.

I really wanted one of these to be my one and only every day watch. But now, it would have to be a 'special' watch worn in rotation with something else.

What a perverse position to be in, nothing has changed, the watch is the watch, all that has changed is my perceived 'risk' due to the value.

'If' I get the call about this open worked ceramic then it won't be unreserved joy, it will be coupled with my sensible thoughts as to risk.

and that tells you all you need to know about my psyche...

p.s.

I did 'pre-order' one of these a year ago (there's no such thing as a pre-order, but AP knew my 'wish') so I have actually given this some proper thought.

[kimwizzzuuu]

AP is going to raise the retail price once again in Jan.

[yoast]

I tried it on yesterday at ap house Hong Kong and it’s amazing!

[yoast]

.

[fullofboats]

When it comes to AP and specifically ceramic and openworked I don't think the issue is purposefully holding back production. How many people in Switzerland are growing up looking to hand polish watches for a living?? How many openworked could AP be making per year across all models? 100? 500? 1% of AP's annual production would be 400 watches. Even if they doubled that demand will still be well in excess.

Also AP has been doing plenty of price increases recently so they've already been active in capturing more of the grey market margins.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by fullofboats

When it comes to AP and specifically ceramic and openworked I don't think the issue is purposefully holding back production. How many people in Switzerland are growing up looking to hand polish watches for a living?? How many openworked could AP be making per year across all models? 100? 500? 1% of AP's annual production would be 400 watches. Even if they doubled that demand will still be well in excess.

Also AP has been doing plenty of price increases recently so they've already been active in capturing more of the grey market margins.

Just curious - anybody have an idea how many ceramic pieces AP puts out per year (total, not just openworked)?

[guanxi]

Watch this space...;-)

[Token74]

If this was 39mm I’d get one in a heartbeat, sadly though it’s too big for me.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Token74]

Originally Posted by GS93108

If these are suddenly worth double/triple retail then that's a joyful position to be in from an investment perspective. However, to me then that detracts from the experiential joy of being able to wear it every day. Retail price suits my risk level, replacement price if I were to lose it/be mugged doesn't.

I really wanted one of these to be my one and only every day watch. But now, it would have to be a 'special' watch worn in rotation with something else.

What a perverse position to be in, nothing has changed, the watch is the watch, all that has changed is my perceived 'risk' due to the value.

'If' I get the call about this open worked ceramic then it won't be unreserved joy, it will be coupled with my sensible thoughts as to risk.

and that tells you all you need to know about my psyche...

p.s.

I did 'pre-order' one of these a year ago (there's no such thing as a pre-order, but AP knew my 'wish') so I have actually given this some proper thought.

If you get the call Gary, make it happen!!

I went through a similar thought process with my 5990. At £40k it seemed fine, but wearing a watch worth £70k exceeded my risk appetite. But after a while i came to the conclusion that the value difference was irrelevant. Firstly, it’s insured for the replacement amount rather than the retail amount. Secondly, the mugging risk feels the same, nobody is going to pass up the opportunity to mug me because my watch is only worth £40k!

So, get it, wear it, enjoy it, boss it!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[GS93108]

Originally Posted by Token74

If you get the call Gary, make it happen!!

I went through a similar thought process with my 5990. At £40k it seemed fine, but wearing a watch worth £70k exceeded my risk appetite. But after a while i came to the conclusion that the value difference was irrelevant. Firstly, it’s insured for the replacement amount rather than the retail amount. Secondly, the mugging risk feels the same, nobody is going to pass up the opportunity to mug me because my watch is only worth £40k!

So, get it, wear it, enjoy it, boss it!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

There's no doubt that I'd take it and have a big grin at the same time and I'm sure that after five minutes I'd have completely talked myself out of any issue in wearing it.

As it happens, since I 'wished' for this one to be a one and only watch, I've already changed my plans to be at least a two watch person, so it would always be 'special' anyway.

Fingers crossed that AP Lady Luck shines my way.

[Token74]

Originally Posted by GS93108

There's no doubt that I'd take it and have a big grin at the same time and I'm sure that after five minutes I'd have completely talked myself out of any issue in wearing it.

As it happens, since I 'wished' for this one to be a one and only watch, I've already changed my plans to be at least a two watch person, so it would always be 'special' anyway.

Fingers crossed that AP Lady Luck shines my way.

I wish you luck! Whilst i will continue to hope they make a 39mm version.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Reign]

Originally Posted by GS93108

There's no doubt that I'd take it and have a big grin at the same time and I'm sure that after five minutes I'd have completely talked myself out of any issue in wearing it.

As it happens, since I 'wished' for this one to be a one and only watch, I've already changed my plans to be at least a two watch person, so it would always be 'special' anyway.

Fingers crossed that AP Lady Luck shines my way.

seeing as how you had a tourb chrono ROO at some point, at half the price for the 15416, think you'll be fine

[GS93108]

Originally Posted by Reign

seeing as how you had a tourb chrono ROO at some point, at half the price for the 15416, think you'll be fine

The difference is that then I was younger, lived in LA, it was my only watch and they were readily available, if I ever lost/damaged/got mugged.

Today I'm poorer, older, don't live in LA, will only ever be allocated one (if I'm lucky)...

But indeed, when I rocked around with my ROO Tourb, I didn't have a care in the world, partly because AP weren't difficult to get. Today the world is nuts, and so am I. I am a walking, talking contradiction.

[chiscott_29]

I agree on the “fragility” and “fear” thing. I’ve worn my 15407 exactly once outside of the house. And, that was to get the rubber bracelet put on it over the summer. I didn’t buy this watch for an “investment”, and just to be clear I did buy secondary, but I’m taking a pause right now on enjoying it outside of my home simply because the value of the watch is not something I disregard or take flippantly. It seems to be going up even higher and I’m just going to see what happens. I know this takes some of the fun out of it for sure, but I can still stare at it every day and that counts for something.

Gary, I don’t know if AP reads these things, but if they do I genuinely hope you get an allocation for the ceramic skeleton. I still haven’t met you, but honestly if we didn’t chat in the early part of the year I think I would have given up on AP. You’re somebody that I think represents the brand well and is well deserving. I can’t wait to see it happen!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[sameer222]

[QUOTE=chiscott_29;11125260]I think this is $225k to $250k on the secondary market and you’ll not see hardly any of them out there for a year or two. There’s just way too much desire for this model and it’s going to be extremely limited given the work that has to go into the movement and the bracelet finishing. I am willing to bet that even the typical AP heavy hitters will be waiting for this. The good (even great) AP customer isn’t going to have a chance. And I’m guessing the even more absurd secondary premiums will also drive the 15407st/or and 15305 even higher than they are now.

Seems like they are having an effect on the 15407 secondary prices - at about $130K now

[GS93108]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I agree on the “fragility” and “fear” thing. I’ve worn my 15407 exactly once outside of the house. And, that was to get the rubber bracelet put on it over the summer. I didn’t buy this watch for an “investment”, and just to be clear I did buy secondary, but I’m taking a pause right now on enjoying it outside of my home simply because the value of the watch is not something I disregard or take flippantly. It seems to be going up even higher and I’m just going to see what happens. I know this takes some of the fun out of it for sure, but I can still stare at it every day and that counts for something.

Gary, I don’t know if AP reads these things, but if they do I genuinely hope you get an allocation for the ceramic skeleton. I still haven’t met you, but honestly if we didn’t chat in the early part of the year I think I would have given up on AP. You’re somebody that I think represents the brand well and is well deserving. I can’t wait to see it happen!!


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

Scott, you are too kind, but as you said, you haven't met me!

I'm just happy to be on the list, I can wait. I have an inkling that I'll be picking up a new ROO next year, so that will sate my appetite for change for a while, and then in 2022 we have the 50th anniversary of the Royal Oak to look forward to, so maybe there'll be something interesting in those releases to lust after. All in all, if it's next year or a few years down the line then I can wait.

Also, AP panders to my whims far more than my purchasing status deserves, so all in all I'm a very happy bunny with the status quo.

p.s.

I love the 15047, and putting it on rubber was a masterful decision, just for the variation. Let it see the sunshine someday...

[Reign]

Secondary market pricing will be huge!

Prices across all the openworked references will move up. VVIPs that already have the 407 will want this too, which brings them back into the already massive list for openworked pieces.

The amount of movements made each year is finite, 600-800 spread between 8 references. My guess is probably less than 100 and more likely less than 50 per year for the 15416 due to how time consuming the ceramic takes to produce

[jschmidtdmd]

This has been a long time coming to the tune of 3 years or so. Either way, a killer piece. I would certainly select it as my second favorite of the skeletons behind the WG diamond bezel.

[EndlessEight]

Gorgeous.

[jschmidtdmd]

Originally Posted by Reign

Secondary market pricing will be huge!

Prices across all the openworked references will move up. VVIPs that already have the 407 will want this too, which brings them back into the already massive list for openworked pieces.

The amount of movements made each year is finite, 600-800 spread between 8 references. My guess is probably less than 100 and more likely less than 50 per year for the 15416 due to how time consuming the ceramic takes to produce

This is another casing of a movement that is apparently already in short supply.

I was under the impression that the open worked movement was the limiting factor in production of all skeleton AP pieces.

If this is in fact true and only a certain number of movements can be produced per year, then the overall production numbers per piece containing this movement would go down as more models are introduced.

That is also assuming that the number of pieces produced is evenly distributed across all models in this series (unlikely).

As the number of models including this movement increase, the scarcity of the each model should go down, as there are only so many movements available.

The whole thing is crazy to think about, considering that the old skeleton wasn't all that

[guanxi]

I do not know about you but I certainly cannot wait for Friday...something big is coming

[YoungMoneyAssassin]

This may be my new all-time favorite. wow. Hope to see it in person!

[fullofboats]

Originally Posted by Reign

Secondary market pricing will be huge!

Prices across all the openworked references will move up. VVIPs that already have the 407 will want this too, which brings them back into the already massive list for openworked pieces.

The amount of movements made each year is finite, 600-800 spread between 8 references. My guess is probably less than 100 and more likely less than 50 per year for the 15416 due to how time consuming the ceramic takes to produce

In a youtube video London Watch Collector says AP told him they make 400 of the movements per year. His info is from 12-24 months ago. Did you hear something more recent?

@ 10:39 mark

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-7E5...WatchCollector

[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by Token74

If this was 39mm I’d get one in a heartbeat, sadly though it’s too big for me.

If I could get one, i'd take it even if I had 5" wrists

[illiguy]

https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/au...l-oak-in-depth

[GreenLantern]

All this press is making it harder for true collectors to collect, and speculators/flippers to gain more interest.

Yes, I know, I'm a bitter hater. Haters gonna hate.