January 2021 and the year that follows ....

[TswaneNguni]

Very few " Incoming !! " threads at the moment .

Will this year see even less stock arriving at the ADs ?
Mainly due to lower numbers produced due to the impact of Covid ?

Will overall demand for Rolex remain as high as in in 2020 ?
Will the economic impact have an effect on secondary market demand or will we see stabilization of demand ?

What do you think ?
How do you see the year developing ?

[iTreelex]

AD cases will never be full anymore and only have ladies DJ's.

[RyanJ]

If Rolex is smart (which they are), they will keep things exactly as they are. No stock increases and no prices increases other than their normally scheduled small percentage increase.

[sond86]

Yep. Plus they changed out all the displays from like 30 watches per tray to 6

[shaunylw]

Originally Posted by iTreelex

AD cases will never be full anymore and only have ladies DJ's.

It’s so strange, I’ve never understood why ADs don’t leave every model on display as display units. Their store displays look terrible empty.


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[Atone]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

It’s so strange, I’ve never understood why ADs don’t leave every model on display as display units. Their store displays look terrible empty.


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Very good point. It’s terrible to look at

[kieselguhr]

I don’t see any change as I doubt they will alter their conservative business model. I do hope they make slight changes to their classic and ladies models as mentioned by Tim Mosso including bringing back the ToG bezels on the DateJust, specifically the 36 and 31mm models. That way the ADs will have truly empty shelves for display.

Well except for Yachtmaster 2s and Cellinis...

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by RyanJ

If Rolex is smart (which they are), they will keep things exactly as they are. No stock increases and no prices increases other than their normally scheduled small percentage increase.

Rolex cant just increase stock ,they have the capability for their yearly production .
The question is more how covid restrictions will decrease production ,what percentage less and for how long .This will have an effect of the numbers reaching ADs worldwide .

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

It’s so strange, I’ve never understood why ADs don’t leave every model on display as display units. Their store displays look terrible empty.

If they don't sell it,they don't get the next one .
So,ADs cant sit forever with the ss sports in the safe as bargaining tools .Sell it,gets the next allocation piece.
Its now just a question of where it goes ........

[porschejeff]

No shortage with the grey market.

[jb335]

My AD said they don’t expect another shipment until late January due to Rolex Corp being closed for the holidays. Their last shipment received was around Christmas time.


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[RyanJ]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Rolex cant just increase stock ,they have the capability for their yearly production .
The question is more how covid restrictions will decrease production ,what percentage less and for how long .This will have an effect of the numbers reaching ADs worldwide .

None of us really know what Rolex can do. We have no idea if their factories are at 100% capacity. We also have no idea how much stock they make or how much stock they make in advance.

I suspect covid will have some impact simply because they were closed down for a bit. No way to know what the impact is.

[Maxy]

Originally Posted by shaunylw

It’s so strange, I’ve never understood why ADs don’t leave every model on display as display units. Their store displays look terrible empty.

There are no display models and every model shipped is for sale.

There should be a better idea - like send particular display watches without movements like they did during Baselworld launch and all stuck at same time. That should not be very hard to create and every AD gets around 25 unique models and that should be displayed all the time. They are non-working and not for sale watches, so not a huge issue if multiple folks touch it and try it out. That 25 models should be less than 1 Rolex model MSRP (or even $25K max). Should not be that hard!

[alphadweller]

According to the WHO, this second covid year could be even trickier than 2020 due to how the new strains are spreading. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

We're already seeing that vaccination is a very slow process and it could take years to achieve herd immunity.

So if Rolex' production went down 15% last year (factory shut, skeleton crews, infected staff), expect it to decrease even further this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they produce 300k watches less than a normal year.

I predict 2021 will set a new record in lack of availability at ADs for most.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

According to the WHO, this second covid year could be even trickier than 2020 due to how the new strains are spreading. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

We're already seeing that vaccination is a very slow process and it could take years to achieve herd immunity.

So if Rolex' production went down 15% last year (factory shut, skeleton crews, infected staff), expect it to decrease even further this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they produce 300k watches less than a normal year.

I predict 2021 will set a new record in lack of availability at ADs for most.

Agree with this.

( We are experiencing a worse 2nd wave in SUMMER now .Expect 3rd wave around May when winter starts in the southern hemisphere .
Hospital ICUs are overfilled and all other medicine disciplines forced to a near complete standstill .Myocardial infarctions ,cannot find open ICU beds ,trauma cases the same ...its a buggerup !!
Vaccine efectiveness ,will it still be effective by the third wave and in 2022 ? Yet,to be determined . )

I agree production numbers for Rolex will be down quite a bit .
2021 may see the worst numbers reaching ADs ever .
Secondary market demand will be maintained .

[noshame]

[QUOTE=TswaneNguni;11196492]Very few " Incoming !! " threads at the moment .


Funny, I was just thinking the exact same thing to myself today. As for 2021, I see a continuation of 2020 where cases will only have DJ36 and smaller (except DJ36 blue dials) and YMII. Sad to think that I won't even see a Sept. 2020 new release in the flesh before the 2021 models are released!

[SWS65SM]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

If they don't sell it,they don't get the next one .
So,ADs cant sit forever with the ss sports in the safe as bargaining tools .Sell it,gets the next allocation piece.
Its now just a question of where it goes ........

Is this really how things work? I thought each AD is already allocated a specific number, or an approx. range, of pieces, particularly the SS professional models, every year, based on how the store performed in the prior year/years?

I picked up my 124060 on Monday for a specific occasion, it was something I asked for/mentioned in passing to the manager/rep a couple months ago. Either the store specifically held on to the piece for me or they really did received new shipment after Jan 8th like some have posted about Rolex went back to work early this year. If it's the latter then perhaps we should be seeing more incoming posts popping up soon

[bejzv]

Originally Posted by alphadweller

According to the WHO, this second covid year could be even trickier than 2020 due to how the new strains are spreading. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

We're already seeing that vaccination is a very slow process and it could take years to achieve herd immunity.

So if Rolex' production went down 15% last year (factory shut, skeleton crews, infected staff), expect it to decrease even further this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they produce 300k watches less than a normal year.

I predict 2021 will set a new record in lack of availability at ADs for most.

This sad reality scares me. The impact on every aspect of our lives besides Rolex production will always be on the negative side.
We just have to brace up.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by SWS65SM

Is this really how things work? I thought each AD is already allocated a specific number, or an approx. range, of pieces, particularly the SS professional models, every year, based on how the store performed in the prior year/years?

Correct ,Say allocated 12 of a reference for the year ,sold and swiped ,registered centrally as sold ,next one gets delivered .May be the next shipment or not ,but it will come .12 will be delivered in the year.This is what I have been told by an AD.

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Correct ,Say allocated 12 of a reference for the year ,sold and swiped ,registered centrally as sold ,next one gets delivered .May be the next shipment or not ,but it will come .12 will be delivered in the year.This is what I have been told by an AD.

My AD says that while the number allocated is known and the frequency of arrival is not, they may end up receiving a few more more than their allocation. But not huge amounts and never SS Sky Dwellers - so far.

I have no idea what the market will do this year. I have no idea when my AD will open their store again. I have no idea when my SS BLRO will turn up, if at all in 2021.

I'm buying a Tag and an Omega, both at a discount, in 2021. If my GMT Master lands in the middle of this plan, I won't mind. If it doesn't, I'll still be busy with the collection and happy to wait.

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by Harry-57

My AD says that while the number allocated is known and the frequency of arrival is not,..

Exactly what I have been told .

[blada4life]

all incoming posts are in the "classified" section, posted by grey dealers. watches come in and go through the back door right away. nothing in the display for regular people to buy, ergo, no incoming threads. But as i said, if you want to see any, check out the for sale sections.

[blada4life]

i thought i read somewhere production was down closer to 25%

Originally Posted by alphadweller

According to the WHO, this second covid year could be even trickier than 2020 due to how the new strains are spreading. It's going to get worse before it gets better.

We're already seeing that vaccination is a very slow process and it could take years to achieve herd immunity.

So if Rolex' production went down 15% last year (factory shut, skeleton crews, infected staff), expect it to decrease even further this year. I wouldn't be surprised if they produce 300k watches less than a normal year.

I predict 2021 will set a new record in lack of availability at ADs for most.

[afmars]

Originally Posted by iTreelex

AD cases will never be full anymore and only have ladies DJ's.

Not true! Popped into my ad the other day and they had a TT 37mm YM!

[TswaneNguni]

Originally Posted by blada4life

all incoming posts are in the "classified" section, posted by grey dealers. watches come in and go through the back door right away. nothing in the display for regular people to buy, ergo, no incoming threads. But as i said, if you want to see any, check out the for sale sections.

Not all,but a large percentage will be .Unfortunate.

2021 with even lower production numbers due to covid ,it may get worse ...

We will find out soon .

[2qne]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Very few " Incoming !! " threads at the moment .

Will this year see even less stock arriving at the ADs ?
Mainly due to lower numbers produced due to the impact of Covid ?

Will overall demand for Rolex remain as high as in in 2020 ?
Will the economic impact have an effect on secondary market demand or will we see stabilization of demand ?

What do you think ?
How do you see the year developing ?

I see haw incoming for me this year as I have 2 on interest free credit now. Might manage to persuade my family to get me one for my birthday/father's day in June.

I'm hoping that the blue Longines Spirit Chonograph becomes readily available this year so that it gets discounted next January when some of my funds are freed up.

[racingfreak]

Might have something to do with the increased lockdowns accross the world, as well as the economic strain being felt by many?

[jcarm981]

Going to be an interesting year for sure.

[Wcdhtwn]

Talked to my AD this past Friday, they received a shipment of 9 DJ’s about two weeks ago. This was earlier than they usually get them after the holiday closure, and more watches than they’ve seen in one shipment in a while. Granted all DJ’s and probably not all 41 mm, but she seemed encouraged by this shipment.

[JodyHighroller]

Personally, I think stock output will be at reduced levels all year given various global restrictions.