The Rolex Forums   The Rolex Watch

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX


Go Back   Rolex Forums - Rolex Forum > General Topics > Open Discussion Forum

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 13 August 2023, 07:17 PM   #31
RolexPD
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: Hawaii
Posts: 257
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blansky View Post
Often these type of tragedies are “perfect storm” scenarios and there will tons of finger pointing in the weeks to come.

A city/town like downtown Lahaina is mainly made up of very old structures and tarted up with nice facades and pretty stores. There is essential one main road in and out with a split farther up the hill called the Lahaina bypass that connects back to the highway a couple of miles out of town.

There is also a road around the mountain if you continue past Lahaina and Kaanapali/ Napili/Kapalua etc but it’s essentially a one lane mountain road in areas and a nightmare if you were to meet traffic coming the other way.

Once the initial fire early that morning that was pretty much extinguished started back up again and the Lahaina bypass was closed, there was one way in and out and it soon was blocked by downed power poles, traffic and emergency vehicles.

So a place like Lahaina was not like a mainland city with evacuation points. Basically everyone was trapped. And once the winds started…..literally all hell broke loose.

Fires were unfortunately farther down the line on suspected/expected disasters that could affect Maui and less resources were directed to it. Probably the economy after closing the island for Covid affected money allocations as well. Bottom line they were literally overwhelmed, which once the winds started was much like the Tubbs Fire in Santa Rosa California in 2017.

I’m guessing obviously money will now be thrown at the kindling/brush that started this and other Hawai’i fires, but things move slowly in Hawai’i.

And imagine, yay …..we’re going to Maui for a week and you get there and that’s one of the weeks that they decided to do preventative burns to take down the brush. And your vacation is filled with smoke and ash everywhere. Think of the complaining then.
An excellent summary in my opinion. Maui’s had several brush fires over the past 5+ years that could have been truly tragic had they started in or spread to more heavily populated areas. Seems like now our state’s luck just ran out when everything that could go wrong, went wrong.

I can only expect that the climate changes we are seeing will continue to make these events more frequent and destructive. We’re all trying to figure out what happened, what could have been done differently, and where we go in the future.

I’m also confident that aloha will help everyone get through this terrible tragedy.
RolexPD is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 August 2023, 08:56 PM   #32
Moondoggy
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Real Name: Knackers
Location: NI/Aust/USA
Watch: and wait
Posts: 3,301
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
Pretty much the entire scientific community disagrees with you. And nothing fails quite like prayers do.
Did you read that from an autistic academic, curious.
__________________
The educated often only know what they have read or been lectured on.
Moondoggy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 August 2023, 11:02 PM   #33
Rico_Brasole
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2022
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
And nothing fails quite like prayers do.

Yikes


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Rico_Brasole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 August 2023, 11:09 PM   #34
Moondoggy
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Real Name: Knackers
Location: NI/Aust/USA
Watch: and wait
Posts: 3,301
Quote:
Originally Posted by rico_brasole View Post
yikes


sent from my iphone using tapatalk
+1
__________________
The educated often only know what they have read or been lectured on.
Moondoggy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 13 August 2023, 11:27 PM   #35
TRS1
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Location: US
Posts: 425
n
TRS1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 12:51 AM   #36
rolexpatek363
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,979
Quote:
Originally Posted by Moondoggy View Post
Did you read that from an autistic academic, curious.
From NASA & Scientific American.
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 01:46 AM   #37
Krash
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
 
Krash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Florida
Watch: Sub, DJ41, GMT
Posts: 8,272
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
From NASA & Scientific American.

We talked about this before. If you think scientists are right about everything, then you know nothing about science.

There are so many examples. But String Theory is one of the best. For more than 40 years, the smartest people on the planet (physicists with PhDs) kept telling everyone that String Theory will emerge as the theory of everything. Now we know it’s all BS.

That’s just one example.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Krash is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 02:29 AM   #38
Blansky
2024 Pledge Member
 
Blansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: swmnpoolsmovie*
Posts: 9,809
Lets have some respect for the people of Hawaii and not turn this thread into a left/right climate change debate.
__________________
OlllllllO
Blansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 02:32 AM   #39
Krash
2024 ROLEX SUBMARINER 41 Pledge Member
 
Krash's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Florida
Watch: Sub, DJ41, GMT
Posts: 8,272
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blansky View Post
Lets have some respect for the people of Hawaii and not turn this thread into a left/right climate change debate.

You’re 100% right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Krash is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 03:42 AM   #40
rolexpatek363
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,979
Quote:
Originally Posted by Krash View Post
We talked about this before. If you think scientists are right about everything, then you know nothing about science.

There are so many examples. But String Theory is one of the best. For more than 40 years, the smartest people on the planet (physicists with PhDs) kept telling everyone that String Theory will emerge as the theory of everything. Now we know it’s all BS.

That’s just one example.
I find this blithe indifference to an existential threat to our children baffling. This isn't a left-right thing, it's all of our survival.

One group of scientists being wrong about String Theory doesn't mean that another group of scientists are wrong about Climate Change. It's a logical non-sequitur.

Climate scientists have been making accurate predictions since the 1970s. And 97-99% of climate scientists are in a consensus. There's very few fringe cranks, but you get those in any profession.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...20the%20future

https://www.opr.ca.gov/facts/list-of...nizations.html

What will it take for climate-deniers to accept the evidence? We've already had record temperatures, droughts, floods, landslides, and mega-wildfires all around the world this year. Is it going to be crop failures, or what?

https://www.theguardian.com/environm...ication-expert
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 03:47 AM   #41
rolexpatek363
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,979
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blansky View Post
Lets have some respect for the people of Hawaii and not turn this thread into a left/right climate change debate.
I'm very sorry for the people of Hawaii, and I hope they will get some relief.

But surely practical action needs to be taken to try to prevent further future disasters like this one. We can't just sleepwalk into oblivion. Reducing it to a left-right thing is ridiculous. What do people in the centre think?
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 03:57 AM   #42
rolexpatek363
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,979
Further, the left-right thing completely breaks down when you look at what Margaret Thatcher had to say in 1989.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fys5...hatcheritescot
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 04:10 AM   #43
HHIslander
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: May 2020
Real Name: Henry
Location: USA
Posts: 4,288
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
I find this blithe indifference to an existential threat to our children baffling. This isn't a left-right thing, it's all of our survival.

One group of scientists being wrong about String Theory doesn't mean that another group of scientists are wrong about Climate Change. It's a logical non-sequitur.

Climate scientists have been making accurate predictions since the 1970s. And 97-99% of climate scientists are in a consensus. There's very few fringe cranks, but you get those in any profession.
Your tendency to cherry pick data that supports your beliefs and ignore any data that challenges your beliefs is quite telling. That’s not how “science” works, that’s how politics works.

“In a new paper published in the International Journal of Global Warming, Carnegie Mellon University’s David Rode and Paul Fischbeck argue that making such forecasts can be counterproductive. “Truly apocalyptic forecasts can only ever be observed in their failure—that is the world did not end as predicted,” says Rode, adjunct research faculty with the Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center, “and observing a string of repeated apocalyptic forecast failures can undermine the public’s trust in the underlying science.”

Rode and Fischbeck, professor of Social & Decision Sciences and Engineering & Public Policy, collected 79 predictions of climate-caused apocalypse going back to the first Earth Day in 1970. With the passage of time, many of these forecasts have since expired; the dates have come and gone uneventfully. In fact, 48 (61%) of the predictions have already expired as of the end of 2020.

Fischbeck noted, “from a forecasting perspective, the ‘problem’ is not only that all of the expired forecasts were wrong, but also that so many of them never admitted to any uncertainty about the date. About 43% of the forecasts in our dataset made no mention of uncertainty.””

https://www.cmu.edu/epp/news/2021/th...forecasts.html

https://www.aei.org/carpe-diem/18-sp...more-this-year

https://www.agweb.com/opinion/doomsd...te-predictions

https://www.netzerowatch.com/earth-d...ave-come-true/
HHIslander is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 04:29 AM   #44
Rico_Brasole
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2022
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 281
Quote:
Originally Posted by HHIslander View Post
Your tendency to cherry pick data that supports your beliefs and ignore any data that challenges your beliefs is quite telling. That’s not how “science” works, that’s how politics works.
Nothing to add other than this is well said


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Rico_Brasole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 04:34 AM   #45
rolexpatek363
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,979
Quote:
Originally Posted by HHIslander View Post
Your tendency to cherry pick data that supports your beliefs and ignore any data that challenges your beliefs is quite telling. That’s not how “science” works, that’s how politics works.
I know very well how science works, but thank you for your kind rebuke, and also for your patronising remarks, which are always welcome. Neither of us is a climate scientist, but I am a physician, so I have a passing interest in the natural sciences.

However....

There is near-unanimity among climate scientists. Maybe Rode and Fischbeck (neither of whom are climate scientists) should raise their concerns with them?
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 04:39 AM   #46
rolexpatek363
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,979
Oh, and BTW, a lot of the early predictions which didn't come true were based on nothing being done to avert disaster.

Global action was taken in 1987 when CFCs were banned, and this did avert immediate disaster.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-58248725
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 04:45 AM   #47
77T
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
77T's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Real Name: PaulG
Location: Georgia
Posts: 42,024
Hawaii Wildfires

Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
I'm very sorry for the people of Hawaii, and I hope they will get some relief.

But surely practical action needs to be taken to try to prevent further future disasters like this one. We can't just sleepwalk into oblivion. Reducing it to a left-right thing is ridiculous. What do people in the centre think?

Either way, please take your off-topic comments onto a thread of your own.

This topic began with an honest wish that our TRF members and others were OK. You have a right to an opinion, but tripling down when others have asked nicely shows very poor consideration.

You are able to start your own “climate change and the wildfires” topic if you wish.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
__________________


Does anyone really know what time it is?
77T is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 04:55 AM   #48
TNT009
"TRF" Member
 
TNT009's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2019
Location: San Diego
Posts: 3,533
Lets not get this thread locked....
TNT009 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 04:58 AM   #49
77T
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
77T's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Real Name: PaulG
Location: Georgia
Posts: 42,024
Agreed


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
__________________


Does anyone really know what time it is?
77T is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 05:04 AM   #50
rolexpatek363
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,979
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77T View Post
Either way, please take your off-topic comments onto a thread of your own.
Climate change isn't off-topic wrt wild fires in Hawaii. It's very much on-topic.

While it's very tempting to say "screw 'em, why should I care, I want a Ferrari and a Range Rover", which seems to be the prevailing opinion here whenever there's a climate-related problem, there are some people here who care about their children's future.
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 05:15 AM   #51
Rico_Brasole
Banned
 
Join Date: Dec 2022
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 281
Hawaii Wildfires

Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
but I am a physician

Oh gosh. so am I. And so are the graduates of St. George’s University.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Rico_Brasole is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 05:28 AM   #52
Carguy87
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
Carguy87's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2022
Real Name: Steve
Location: Nevada
Watch: JC 126660
Posts: 4,538
Ibtl
Carguy87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 05:45 AM   #53
77T
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
77T's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Real Name: PaulG
Location: Georgia
Posts: 42,024
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carguy87 View Post
Ibtl

Hopefully not.

I also hope our Maui-based members can come to tell us they made it through the disaster.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
__________________


Does anyone really know what time it is?
77T is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 05:51 AM   #54
Blansky
2024 Pledge Member
 
Blansky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: swmnpoolsmovie*
Posts: 9,809
Quote:
Originally Posted by rolexpatek363 View Post
Climate change isn't off-topic wrt wild fires in Hawaii. It's very much on-topic.

While it's very tempting to say "screw 'em, why should I care, I want a Ferrari and a Range Rover", which seems to be the prevailing opinion here whenever there's a climate-related problem, there are some people here who care about their children's future.
The problem is not whether you’re right or you’re wrong, the problem is that it seems inappropriate to be continually arguing this when the thread is about the tragedy to the people in Hawai’i, and the dead and still missing people involved, and the need for help from those of us on the mainland.

Thanks.
__________________
OlllllllO
Blansky is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 06:02 AM   #55
Carguy87
2024 SubLV41 Pledge Member
 
Carguy87's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2022
Real Name: Steve
Location: Nevada
Watch: JC 126660
Posts: 4,538
Quote:
Originally Posted by 77T View Post
Hopefully not.

I also hope our Maui-based members can come to tell us they made it through the disaster.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
I hope not as well; this thread started with the intention of showing care and respect for all the people facing tragedy in Hawaii. Clearly the conversation has steered away from that, and it seems a “course correction” isn’t likely.
Carguy87 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 08:01 AM   #56
austinp
"TRF" Member
 
austinp's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: us
Posts: 3,393
The images coming from Hawaii are horrible. I’ve seen the challenges to rebuild after hurricanes here in Florida. I can’t imagine how difficult it will be on a small island. Getting enough tradespeople and materials to the area will be quite challenging. Prayers go out to all involved.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
austinp is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 09:46 AM   #57
BLACKHORSE 6
"TRF" Member
 
BLACKHORSE 6's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Real Name: Dave
Location: USA
Watch: Rolex SS Daytona
Posts: 2,679
It’s a terrible situation.

I have no idea if this is going on, but I know that the US Army has the 25th ID not far away in Schofield Barracks. The Navy also has assets in the area out of Pearl Harbor. I can’t think of anyone else that has the assets and people in that area necessary to coordinate a large relief effort. Hopefully the people impacted are getting the support that they need.
BLACKHORSE 6 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 10:02 AM   #58
Maleg
"TRF" Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2022
Real Name: G
Location: Illinois
Watch: 5513
Posts: 1,706
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blansky View Post
The problem is not whether you’re right or you’re wrong, the problem is that it seems inappropriate to be continually arguing this when the thread is about the tragedy to the people in Hawai’i, and the dead and still missing people involved, and the need for help from those of us on the mainland.

Thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carguy87 View Post
I hope not as well; this thread started with the intention of showing care and respect for all the people facing tragedy in Hawaii. Clearly the conversation has steered away from that, and it seems a “course correction” isn’t likely.
A course correction is made when we ignore the one poster whose zealotry incapacitates his compassion.

The news today is more horrible than yesterday.
Maleg is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 07:30 PM   #59
rolexpatek363
Banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Location: up a hill
Posts: 1,979
"A course correction is made when we ignore the one poster whose zealotry incapacitates his compassion"

I have nothing but compassion for the poor people in Hawaii, I am simply pointing out a very important driver for this catastrophe. We can hold more than one thought or idea in our heads simultaneously, I would hope: compassion AND a desire to prevent future disasters.
rolexpatek363 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 14 August 2023, 10:30 PM   #60
Wcdhtwn
"TRF" Member
 
Wcdhtwn's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: Houston
Watch: SkyD, SD43, GMT2
Posts: 5,061
I have a niece living there. She had 4 minutes to grab what she could and flee. What she didn't take is gone, fortunately she's fine, and one of the few things she grabbed was her dog, both are fine.

She is a boat captain and works for a whale watch company. I think they lost all their boats, that business is dead... like so many others.
Wcdhtwn is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply


Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)
 
Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

OCWatches

Wrist Aficionado

My Watch LLC

WatchesOff5th

DavidSW Watches

Takuya Watches


*Banners Of The Month*
This space is provided to horological resources.





Copyright ©2004-2024, The Rolex Forums. All Rights Reserved.

ROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEXROLEX

Rolex is a registered trademark of ROLEX USA. The Rolex Forums is not affiliated with ROLEX USA in any way.