History in the making on US markets

[BarkMaster]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

If you don't need the money soon. Stay long term in the market. Like 10 years out. Dollar cost average putting the same amount in monthly buying a low fee index fund. For example the S + P 500. Up 13.20 year to date.

[Boothroyd]

Not saying I agree with opinions expressed at this website, but a very good description of secular bulls and bears since 1871. Not endorsing the analyst.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...ar-Markets.php

[NKflyer]

The Fed is creating a bubble in all asset classes as it's zero percent interest rate policies and quantitative easing (bond buying) are forcing investors further & further out on the risk curve, chasing yield.

I think that the U.S. is actually worse off than Europe. The difference being that Euro nations, due to the shared currency, are reporting economic conditions more truthfully while the U.S. is able to hide our problems via endless money printing.

That said, and even though I think equity markets are in a bubble right now, this bull market could run for a good while longer. It is almost impossible to dream up any negative scenario that the Fed would not be able to rescue us from. The only way things will crash is if the Fed's power is curtailed and that aint gonna happen. If rates rise, the cost of servicing the massive national debt will skyrocket. The Fed has no exit strategy and furthermore, I think they will increase monthly expenditures from $85B to approx $120B in the near future.

Very strange investing environment right now…. nothing organic to base your decisions on. I personally don't care for it.

[Kaylesdad]

Good insight NKflyer. I agree that the fed will just throw everything including the kitchen sink at any problem. But in the end the simple law of cause and effect will mean that the longer it takes for the problem to finally rear it's head the greater the medicine needed to fix it.
I don't wish to be pessimistic as there is always opportunity but only wish to state that before investing into a highly manipulated pumped up market, think it through. No one went bust taking a smaller profit but avoiding a wipeout.

[bgriz]

Lots of amateur analysts and market prognosticators here. A rising tide lifts all boats and tends to make for some real puffy chested participants.....until a 73-74 , 00-02, and 08-09 market comes along. Be careful out there folks.

[Kaylesdad]

Thanks Boothroyd. Good article

[Boothroyd]

You're welcome. I thought that was as cogent a description as I have seen in a long time, and recently updated, too!

[Gaijin]

I would not try to time the market. Just buy some good blue chips or a low fee index fund and have a loooooong term time frame and you will be fine. My retirement account went down huge in 08-09. Waited it out and kept the same amount going in every month into a simple market index fund. No panic. Sitting good now.

Don't go into the market if you might need the money in a year.

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by gimpex

Any specific companies that you have your eye on right now that you can mention ?

I have done okay from the bigger more traditional stable companies like MSFT , MCD in the US and TSCO , RSA , VOD in the UK ( and a few more). The dividends together with some options ( especially in the US ) bring in a fair return. The recent capital appreciation makes me a bit nervous that its all going to come tumbling down. I bought in quite a bit during the last dip of 08/09 , and would likely do the same in the next one , but would be great to take at least some profits before the next dip comes - that's my daily dilemma - we know its coming , just not sure if its days, weeks ,months or years away.

I'm long on both LSE and AIM stocks and also some of the divi stocks you mention

TCG is one you want to look at. given me back about 500% since christmas and there is more to come

BARC is great example of a bank that is trading at a tasty discount

DXNS is like TCG a turnaround stock and it'll come good

Originally Posted by johnbeth

Warren Buffet once said, never try to predict when the market will hit its peak or lows. Just sell when enough profit head been made and you are happy with it.

Most people don't have an exit strategy which is important in investing.

this is so true john!!! i've seen people with 100% gains sit and watch it dwindle back to 20% for only then to cash out

stocks are instruments to make cash, nothing more nothing less. do not get emotionally attached

Originally Posted by Boothroyd

Not saying I agree with opinions expressed at this website, but a very good description of secular bulls and bears since 1871. Not endorsing the analyst.

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/d...ar-Markets.php

never trust an analyst or broker but that's a good read...

Originally Posted by bgriz

Lots of amateur analysts and market prognosticators here. A rising tide lifts all boats and tends to make for some real puffy chested participants.....until a 73-74 , 00-02, and 08-09 market comes along. Be careful out there folks.

correct, don't listen to what anyone says and DYOR

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

I would not try to time the market. Just buy some good blue chips or a low fee index fund and have a loooooong term time frame and you will be fine. My retirement account went down huge in 08-09. Waited it out and kept the same amount going in every month into a simple market index fund. No panic. Sitting good now.

Don't go into the market if you might need the money in a year.

agreed. only go in with money you can afford to lose and always with a 3-5 year view should it go arse over head

in 2009 i made a terrible call on a stock which was badly affected by the euro crisis and it's only in the past few months it has started to come good...

[Lisa]

Had to bump this thread... if you pay attention to the financial news reports, there's general belief of plenty of life left in the US stock market... just choose wisely and be aware of the levels of risk. I bought shares of Whole Foods Market early last week for no reason other than I like shopping there and knew more stores were being built in the US and overseas, which seems a good indicator of long term growth. My financial adviser sort of shrugged and said, Okay, if this is what you want to do. Yesterday Whole Foods released their 2nd quarter earnings report and share prices jumped around 10 percent. Found out today they've announced a stock split set for the end of the month.

[Gaijin]

Awesome Lisa!

[The Joker]

Originally Posted by Lisa

Had to bump this thread... if you pay attention to the financial news reports, there's general belief of plenty of life left in the US stock market... just choose wisely and be aware of the levels of risk. I bought shares of Whole Foods Market early last week for no reason other than I like shopping there and knew more stores were being built in the US and overseas, which seems a good indicator of long term growth. My financial adviser sort of shrugged and said, Okay, if this is what you want to do. Yesterday Whole Foods released their 2nd quarter earnings report and share prices jumped around 10 percent. Found out today they've announced a stock split set for the end of the month.

That's great news.

My very simplified take on the stock markets is, it's pure gambling. Was a bit burnt when younger, and know lots of others. Why risk your hard earned money.

If you work at an investment bank, you have lots of information and not risking your own money. My brother is a market analyst. The ordinary Joe can't compete with that.

We have a nice share save scheme at work. Pay in every month for 3 years, and at the end either get your money back with some interest or take the shares(at the start price) I sold the shares straight away last time and doubled my money. Am due to finish my second one in Dec, but my company just had a profit warning, and a pound was wiped off the price. Hopefully still come out ahead. I could hold on to the shares, but I will sell straight away, take the first profit. Who can predict a profit warning, or a world disaster.

[Lisa]

Wes, your brother would be a great person to know!

And you're right; putting your money in the stock market is a gamble. But as others have said, it's part of a diversified portfolio that can reap pretty good rewards.

Tom, our retirement accounts took a huge hit in 2008. Huge. We cried and wrung our hands but didn't do anything but continue to contribute. Like you said, things are fine now. Being in for the long haul is a good thing.

[The Joker]

I see guys at work, pouring over their portfolios on the computer, checking the share prices every 2 seconds. Swear it adds years to your life.

Understand the big rewards possible. Think I'm just happier concentrating paying off my mortgage ASAP and into my pension.

[bgriz]

Originally Posted by Lisa

Had to bump this thread... if you pay attention to the financial news reports, there's general belief of plenty of life left in the US stock market... just choose wisely and be aware of the levels of risk. I bought shares of Whole Foods Market early last week for no reason other than I like shopping there and knew more stores were being built in the US and overseas, which seems a good indicator of long term growth. My financial adviser sort of shrugged and said, Okay, if this is what you want to do. Yesterday Whole Foods released their 2nd quarter earnings report and share prices jumped around 10 percent. Found out today they've announced a stock split set for the end of the month.

Makes sense, buy what you know and understand like Warren Buffett. I've worked with clients one on one every day for the last 25 years and believe me the same mistakes are made over and over. People love to buy high and sell low. Fear vs greed and fear is 10x as strong. It's ok to buy high, after all if nobody ever bought high, the markets would never go on to new highs. It's the selling low when fear is rampant that ruins portfolios and retirements. Its not just enough to diversify, because underestimating your risk tolerance can lead to shell shock and mistakes when 00-02 or 08-09 type markets happen.
The things that came out of otherwise perfectly sane and normal people's mouths in 08-09 is something that I will never forget. In other words, people can be their own worst enemies when it comes to investing.

Just my experienced observations, YMMV.

[Gaijin]

Originally Posted by The Joker

I see guys at work, pouring over their portfolios on the computer, checking the share prices every 2 seconds. Swear it adds years to your life.

Understand the big rewards possible. Think I'm just happier concentrating paying off my mortgage ASAP and into my pension.

Smart Wes.

[Lisa]

Originally Posted by bgriz

Makes sense, buy what you know and understand like Warren Buffett. I've worked with clients one on one every day for the last 25 years and believe me the same mistakes are made over and over. People love to buy high and sell low. Fear vs greed and fear is 10x as strong. It's ok to buy high, after all if nobody ever bought high, the markets would never go on to new highs. It's the selling low when fear is rampant that ruins portfolios and retirements. Its not just enough to diversify, because underestimating your risk tolerance can lead to shell shock and mistakes when 00-02 or 08-09 type markets happen.
The things that came out of otherwise perfectly sane and normal people's mouths in 08-09 is something that I will never forget. In other words, people can be their own worst enemies when it comes to investing.

Just my experienced observations, YMMV.

That's exactly what my guy says. Buy what you know. And ride out the rough patches - keeping an eye on things and tweaking if necessary, but understanding that long-term investment is the goal. I'm not very savvy about investing, but trying to learn and feel lucky to have a good adviser. His outlook is a lot like yours.

[Puffy]

since i started this thread 5 sessions ago the DJIA has kept going up

no need to panic that a correction will follow when QE is stopped, still some way to US unemployment of 6.5%

investors can now see what the risks are and can make calculated investment decisions based on those known risks

also many things in the underlying global financial system have improved since the start of the credit crunch, banks are better capitalized, both corporations and households have improved their balance sheets and a general sense of wariness about the future makes mass risk taking along the lines of a housing boom or dot com run up unlikely. Regulators are now hugely involved in most industries to keep an eye on things. All this helps mitigate systemic risk of the kind that led to the 2008 credit crunch

like Lisa who is long on Whole Foods, you just need to balance your portfolio with companies that any moron could run

nice cyclical and non-cyclical companies like retail (whole foods, food delivery cos etc), travel and tech stocks like mobile payment companies

all no brainer companies that will continue to go up regardless of macro backdrop

[Swearengen]

Don’t you reach a point where you are so diversified you might as well have gone into index tracking ETFs? Was looking at Berkshire Hathaway last year but decided to go with an ishares US ETF instead to get US exposure.
I am about 80% in trackers/ETFs (mainly UK and some US, Euro and Japan/far East) and hold some defensive stocks (Unilever and BAT) to balance.

Originally Posted by Puffy

like Lisa who is long on Whole Foods, you just need to balance your portfolio with companies that any moron could run

nice cyclical and non-cyclical companies like retail (whole foods, food delivery cos etc), travel and tech stocks like mobile payment companies

all no brainer companies that will continue to go up regardless of macro backdrop

[The Joker]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

Smart Wes.

Or too dumb to predict the markets.

[andromeda160]

Originally Posted by JAGERVEGAS

I bought 2000 shares of McDonalds in 1991 when my daughter was born @ 35.00. Hate the food. Love the stock, dividends and 2 stock splits later !!SOLD TODAY @ just under 103.00!! Glad I waited out this mess

$70,000 investment, $824,000 return? that's pretty legit.

[Runnin' Rebel]

The stock just about doubled in a little over 4 years.

Since going public in 1965, McDonald's has executed twelve stock splits. In fact, an investment of $2,250 in 100 shares at that time has grown to 74,360 shares worth approximately $7.4 million as of market close on May 10, 2013..crazy

[zeuloa]

Originally Posted by JAGERVEGAS

I bought 2000 shares of McDonalds in 1991 when my daughter was born @ 35.00. Hate the food. Love the stock, dividends and 2 stock splits later !!SOLD TODAY @ just under 103.00!! Glad I waited out this mess

Great day! I say you need to buy yourself a watch to celebrate!

[Runnin' Rebel]

^^^ Or off set payments for Dental School, housing and other miscellaneous stuff kids need these days while living out of state. I can't think of a better time to have a child in school then now during this economy and unemployment situation. That's what this investment was earmarked for 23 years ago.

[airchitect]

There will be a huge correction. How huge?...well lets just make sure we aren't holding onto too much debt....

[Sherwooddavid]

Originally Posted by airchitect

There will be a huge correction. How huge?...well lets just make sure we aren't holding onto too much debt....

Your right, there probably will be a major correction but you don't loose unless you panic and sell.

[Puffy]

The 'correction'....

Today we've experienced what the markets make of ending QE - Ben's comments yesterday. Jittery data from China too

Max intraday drops of 3-4%, 7% if you look towards APAC but the Asians always go harder than the rest of us when they flash the Want To Sell signs

It's nothing. We are not going to get the 20-30% dips that the bears are trying to sell

Markets will have paired losses over a few sessions as nothing material has changed overnight

Monetary policy is still accommodative, corporate earnings have maintained their positive trend and in terms of yield, equities arguably remain the asset class of choice

If you are looking to join in the rally by waiting for an opportunity to buy on the dips today is a great entry point

[SohAIS]

market is in the upward trend right now. How long ?

[Puffy]

Originally Posted by sohail

market is in the upward trend right now. How long ?

short term indicators are pointing south because Uncle Ben is making up his mind whether to shop for more printer cartridges on Amazon

when he's confirmed his printer is going to spit out cheap cash until Q114, it's all going to go mental again

these down days are great for bargain hunting