RIP vintage Rolex hobby?

[MATCH1969]

Originally Posted by SAAS

Very nice Heuers!

+1

[Cc1966]

Don't think it's a bubble. The rise has been consistent, slow, and steady.

[SAAS]

The hobby is alive and well more people are able to participate than ever before

These watches where produced in a world where much of the global middle class or higher wealth was concentrated in the US/Developed Europe there were fewer wealthy people in general so fewer watches produced. Prices may have been lower but more people were worried about dinner in those days. While it saddens me that some watches are growing out of reach financially I think we can all agree more people having a higher quality of life is a good thing for everyone. More goods and services sold more opportunity.

[Shawnnyang]

I don't think its a bubble either. I actually think vintage rolexes are UNDER valued at the moment.

1680s, 5513s, 1016s, 1675s, snowflakes, 1803s, 1603s can all be had for less than the cost of a modern Rolex. Think about that for a moment.

I'd aliken it to vintage muscle cars and their modern day equivalents. In most cases the vintage costs a whole hell of a lot more and we're talking about vehicles that have a much shorter shelf life than watches. The case is made even stronger when you consider that a modern rolex doesn't do anything better than a vintage rolex in terms of keeping time (the way a modern mustang can smoke the hell out of a 68'). So all you have is a diminishing supply and an increasing demand (a 70s sub is never going out of style). I don't see any bubble bursting any time soon.

I'm going to purchase the quintessential vintages in the best conditions that I can find in the next year or so and just enjoy the shit out of them for the next 50 years. Otherwise, I fear that I'll never be able to justify spending THAT much for a watch.

I'd bet good money that in 10 years time, there is no way in hell you'd be able to buy a quality vintage for the price of a modern rolex.

[Kingface66]

Yeah, I'm thinking this is not a bubble at all. As a corollary, in the mid-90s, when I was living in DC where I grew up, a guitar store called Southworth had an incredible collection of '58 - '60 Les Paul sunbursts. They were going for around $30,000 ea. And insane amount of money that we assumed was a bubble that would have to burst soon.

Now, 20 years later, they're worth $300,000 or more.

At the time, I wish....prayed!...I had that kind of cash, but it was simply out of the question. Would I spend $300,000 on one now? Besides not being able to, and even AFTER I saw the increase, a part of me believes the prices must be at their peak. So, no.
And yet....another part of me can see them being worth a million in ten years.

So, yeah, I brought a gilt dial 5513 last year for more money than I'm fully comfortable with...but, not entirely UNcomfortable with....and, I'm feeling very confident that this was a wise investment.

[Shawnnyang]

Dude ..... so glad to see someone shares my own anxiety. LOL I think part of my post is just trying to justify my own recent purchase. Time will tell.

[steptoe]

Originally Posted by QCASANOVA

I was just pointing out that having a cool vintage watch just isn't as exclusive as it once was and since there are more buyers (due to the new fad/trend of wearing vintage) the prices are rising as the supply is diminishing.

:

What do you mean "having a cool vintage watch isn't as exclusive as it once was".
There are still only the same amount of vintage watches, they haven't increased production .

[lhanddds]

Originally Posted by Mark020

Heuers have appreciated considerably in the last 5 years. Nice Monaco or Siffert is USD 10k as well. Part of my collection:

Nice ones you have there


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tudor Fan]

Originally Posted by JohnBaker3

+1

Amazingly, the vintage Rolex market may be the ONLY market out there that ISN'T manipulated by the boys on Wall Street...

...well, who's bonuses do you think are buying those over $100k vintage Daytonas and $50k big crowns? Same with classic cars. Last year the best performing investment sector of them all. Vintage watches and cars, art from established artists, precious metals, high end real estates are all forms of hedging agains the looming economic collapse...

Until that happens prices - all prices - will go up. After, all bets are off.

[Tudor Fan]

Originally Posted by Kingface66

Yeah, I'm thinking this is not a bubble at all. As a corollary, in the mid-90s, when I was living in DC where I grew up, a guitar store called Southworth had an incredible collection of '58 - '60 Les Paul sunbursts. They were going for around $30,000 ea. And insane amount of money that we assumed was a bubble that would have to burst soon.

Now, 20 years later, they're worth $300,000 or more.

At the time, I wish....prayed!...I had that kind of cash, but it was simply out of the question. Would I spend $300,000 on one now? Besides not being able to, and even AFTER I saw the increase, a part of me believes the prices must be at their peak. So, no.
And yet....another part of me can see them being worth a million in ten years.

So, yeah, I brought a gilt dial 5513 last year for more money than I'm fully comfortable with...but, not entirely UNcomfortable with....and, I'm feeling very confident that this was a wise investment.

I tend to agree but hope it is not wishful thinking on my part....

[Cortezthekiller]

Originally Posted by Tudor Fan

...well, who's bonuses do you think are buying those over $100k vintage Daytonas and $50k big crowns? Same with classic cars. Last year the best performing investment sector of them all. Vintage watches and cars, art from established artists, precious metals, high end real estates are all forms of hedging agains the looming economic collapse...

Until that happens prices - all prices - will go up. After, all bets are off.

Indeed, as equity bubbles inflate so go the collectible markets. Unfortunately on the other side, collectibles are much less liquid and are usually sold at a deep loss in trying times. Rough for those late to the game or cash poor.

[Tudor Fan]

Originally Posted by Cortezthekiller

Indeed, as equity bubbles inflate so go the collectible markets. Unfortunately on the other side, collectibles are much less liquid and are usually sold at a deep loss in trying times. Rough for those late to the game or cash poor.

True.

[MILGAUSS88]

Rolex was never suppose to be an "affordable" watch.
10 years ago a new sub listed for $4,000 and you could buy vintage for $2,000 - $3,000 and no crown guards for $4,000.
Now list for a new sub is $8,500. You can buy vintage for $3,500 to $6,000, still under new model prices. No crown guards can be had for $8,000 - $10,000 if not a large crown.
Roughly same ratio of price with the new watch 10 years ago.
Everything has become inflated, except for our pay.

[Mark020]

NCG for 8-10k? Don't see a lot of them :-)

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by MILGAUSS88

Rolex was never suppose to be an "affordable" watch.
10 years ago a new sub listed for $4,000 and you could buy vintage for $2,000 - $3,000 and no crown guards for $4,000.
Now list for a new sub is $8,500. You can buy vintage for $3,500 to $6,000, still under new model prices. No crown guards can be had for $8,000 - $10,000 if not a large crown.
Roughly same ratio of price with the new watch 10 years ago.
Everything has become inflated, except for our pay.

pls point me in the direction of a NCG Sub for $10k......

[HERITAGE82]

Originally Posted by steptoe

What do you mean "having a cool vintage watch isn't as exclusive as it once was".
There are still only the same amount of vintage watches, they haven't increased production .

I understand your point in regards to the quantity of watches available. However, what I meant was that at one point I could go a very long time without seeing someone with a vintage watch on, and now I see vintage watches strapped to people's wrists quite frequently. Therefore, actually wearing a cool vintage watch is not as exclusive as it once was due to the high # of people wearing them.

[Tudor Fan]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

pls point me in the direction of a NCG Sub for $10k......

Me too, please.

[QueueCumber]

Originally Posted by Mark020

NCG for 8-10k? Don't see a lot of them :-)

Originally Posted by jfmiii

pls point me in the direction of a NCG Sub for $10k......

Originally Posted by Tudor Fan

Me too, please.

He'll show you, but you have to dig 6 feet to get them....

[Maxbliss888]

The demand are for those sports models. You can still find bargains for those Smaller non-sports models...

[Karbo]

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

Once the Mainland China market gets a taste for vintage Rolex in the way they have had for new Rolex in the last decade or so, all bets will be off.

Lol
Time to buy then

[Karbo]

Its not a bubble and Prices will raise to the sky for one simple reason :
Every year a small % of vintage 5513,1665 etc... are getting destroyed and lost.
1% a year ? So 10% in 10 years of the stock will desapear
Less products on the market and more demand

[locutus49]

Hilarious TV reference. Well played.

Originally Posted by Old Expat Beast

You might think that. I can't possibly comment.

[locutus49]

A significant percentage of vintage Rolexes are Frankenwatches or outright fakes, and the owners do not even realize it. Musician John Mayer collects them and bought several Franken-vintages from a well known dealer whom he trusted and with whom he had a long relationship. And Mayer reportedly has solid knowledge of vintages. He is currently suing the dealer. Be careful out there.

[springer]

Originally Posted by locutus49

A significant percentage of vintage Rolexes are Frankenwatches or outright fakes, and the owners do not even realize it. Musician John Mayer collects them and bought several Franken-vintages from a well known dealer whom he trusted and with whom he had a long relationship. And Mayer reportedly has solid knowledge of vintages. He is currently suing the dealer. Be careful out there.

Thank you John. I didn't realize that a significant number of the vintage Rolex watches are fake or cobbled-togethers. I'll heed your advice! What per cent would you say are fakes and frankens?

[stmoore]

Lol.

[locutus49]

If your comment is meant as sarcasm, you should know that there are likely people on this forum who think they own genuine vintage watches. I hope everyone's watch is authentic. But you never know. My post was meant kindly, and for the new buyers.

Museums - every art museum - have a basement with fakes that they once thought were authentic, until newer technology could disauthenticate them. And all these works of art were at one time considered genuine by experts. My source for this is Art News and my own experience.

So even experts can be fooled. Like I said, be careful. If it does not apply to you, then it does not apply to you. But new buyers entering the vintage market may not be so knowledgeable. Google the subject if you doubt me.

Originally Posted by springer

Thank you John. I didn't realize that a significant number of the vintage Rolex watches are fake or cobbled-togethers. I'll heed your advice! What per cent would you say are fakes and frankens?

[springer]

Originally Posted by locutus49

If your comment is meant as sarcasm, you should know that there are likely people on this forum who think they own genuine vintage watches. I hope everyone's watch is authentic. But you never know. My post was meant kindly, and for the new buyers.

Museums - every art museum - have a basement with fakes that they once thought were authentic, until newer technology could disauthenticate them. And all these works of art were at one time considered genuine by experts. My source for this is Art News and my own experience.

So even experts can be fooled. Like I said, be careful. If it does not apply to you, then it does not apply to you. But new buyers entering the vintage market may not be so knowledgeable. Google the subject if you doubt me.

I fail to see any "sarcasm" in my reply. You paint a picture with a broad brush, doom and gloom, because of a few fake vintage Rolex watches that show up every now-and-then. I don't care what you collect, there will be criminals and fraudsters jumping at the chance to separate you from your hard earned cash and unload some junk on you. This is not a new phenomenon, since con artists have been around for thousands of years.

[locutus49]

So I was wrong to caution new vintage buyers about frankenwatches and fakes? Do we encourage them and later, when they proudly display their new vintage, point out the flaws?

Someone is buying the myriad faux Rolexes on ebay. It may seem like a few to you, but seems like a lot a inauthentic Rolexes are on the market to me. Again, search on John Mayer and Rolexes to see how even experienced collectors can be fooled.

How can you argue against a polite caution to new buyers? I'll leave this thread, and let the readers decide how to buy vintage watches. I hope they are cautious and careful. But it is up to them.

Originally Posted by springer

I fail to see any "sarcasm" in my reply. You paint a picture with a broad brush, doom and gloom, because of a few fake vintage Rolex watches that show up every now-and-then. I don't care what you collect, there will be criminals and fraudsters jumping at the chance to separate you from your hard earned cash and unload some junk on you. This is not a new phenomenon, since con artists have been around for thousands of years.

[QueueCumber]

We are the Borg. You will be assimilated. Your biological and technological distinctiveness will be added to our own.

[sennheiserz]

I'm really happy this has been posted as I feel it is the most important debate in vintage Rolex today.

I've always loved watches since I was very young, and I arguably still am having recently turned 30. In the last handful of years I have be fortunate enough to have some disposable income to spend on this hobby, so I began to buy, and sell, and buy again. I was mostly interested in newish watches as I didn't know much about vintage and wanted to make sure I was wearing something I could truly rely on.

However the vintage stuff began to captivate me: the plexiglass crystals, the different shades of patina, silver date wheels, open 6's and 9's and all the different types of history of the buyers and the time they were made. So recently I totally changed my collecting strategy, selling anything I had that was new and I didn't have significant attachment to, in order to focus on vintage.

Simply put, I know I can buy any of the new models for the next few decades, but I feel we are in the last stages of being able to ever own the classic models from the 60s and 70s without the kind of investment I know I won't be comfortable with, especially for something so easily broken, stolen or damaged through the years.

That said, I wouldn't buy them if I didn't truly love them and want to WEAR them every day. Do I consider them a form of an investment? Well, I guess you could ask my savings account that. But one of the great thing about any Rolex is that it is a way to park money while enjoying it every day.

Would I cash out my 401k in order to pick up a some serious vintage pieces? Even if it might be a much better investment in the long run, I absolutely would not. Part of this hobby is understanding the opportunity cost, the fact that each time you choose a new piece, it means all the others will have to wait. Its part of the fun and chase. This is especially pertinent in vintage watches where there is a real possibility they will be much more expensive by the next time you have saved up again.

But there is another part of this hobby I've begun to understand which I find to be an important part of it. ThomasPP once said to me,

"Don’t be too aggressive with your budget. If you overspend and worry too much about the money, you won’t enjoy it as much as you should."

He's absolutely right. Enjoy what you have while you have the time to. I bet art collectors in the mid-20th century were annoyed that they could no longer afford decent Picasso's for their own collection. Now it seems incredible anyone could have these hanging on their dining room walls.

Fine watches are becoming no different, except you can enjoy them during every part of your day. The older ones are of course more rare, and to some more beautiful, but at the end of the day most of us get enjoy some of each, old and new. For how much longer who knows, I'm not looking to find out, which is why I'm placing emphasis on them now.

Picasso loved his Pateks: