Prices of Rolex during a "real" depression.. (for you OG'S)

[jonnylax]

What is the luxury watch market like when the economy is really in the dumps? I know there are some older members on here who probably have experienced a time like this in their lifetime and I'm guessing picked up a few great deals in the secondary market? so my question would be whats the market like from an AD's perspective, and the secondary market?

[JP Chestnut]

The buyings were good during the latter part of bush's second term. Lots of people raising cash with low priced quick sales.

[GSBC]

Don't have to go back too far...look at 2007 - 2009.
Trouble is, when everyone was selling, most were hesitant to buy...only to wait and see until market went back up again. It's always tough to time the lowest of lows and highest of highs. For a hobby like watches, better to just buy when you want it.

[Mystro]

I didn't notice that much a desperate enviorment with Rolex watches. Luxury goods were kinda above any eccomic fall outs from my perspective.

[KDS777]

This is my first go round in the Rolex market, and I haven't worked within it, or watched it from outside, like the other luxury brands I have spent time with. So, I've really got no history yet, but I'll suggest as this kind of purchase is at the pinnacle of the very tiny point at the top of the priority pyramid, I don't think the prices on the new product will change. What seems to change is the number of buyers.

Sales of new pieces are down big time right now in the overall Swiss luxury watch market, but seem to be changing direction and going back up. Having said that, I think Rolex has pretty deep pockets and can survive almost anything, and still dictate to the market. Though, this year they didn't increase retail prices. Read this page......it pertains to the entire Swiss watch market.

http://www.fhs.swiss/file/59/comm_170505_a.pdf

"Several important markets posted very strong growth. Hong Kong (+18.1%) and China (+34.4%) led the
Asian continent while the situation in Japan (-3.2%) continued to deteriorate. Alternating between highs
and lows, the United States (-1.1%) also declined slightly in May, maintaining the negative trend that has
affected the country for more than one year. In Europe, the four leading markets, i.e. Italy (+26.7%), the
United Kingdom (+12.9%), France (+9.5%) and Germany (+3.7%) all reported growth."

I don't know anything about the used market to offer an opinion.

[m j b]

I'll suggest that yes, prices will go down in the next financial downturn/recession, but not enough to make it worth while to try and "time" the market. If there's a model that you want, buy it and enjoy it.

[hugs]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I didn't notice that much a desperate enviorment with Rolex watches. Luxury goods were kinda above any eccomic fall outs from my perspective.

This is true of upper class who have money to live regardless of the economy. But when the economy is at a high many working class people treat themselves to luxury goods only to need the money back when times are hard

[MonBK]

That's when you buy tons of them.

[armen34]

Luxury and ultra luxury goods don't deprecate much even in a market downturn.

[ras47]

On Wall Street I was offered a Gold Presidential for $10,000 if I had cash on hand. That was 2008. I was still an Omega guy and had no interest in Rolex, other than my grail watch - The GMT Pepsi. If I had a clue about real value and what would eventually happen in the watch market I would have jumped on the deal. But at the time, when things looked darkest, few people had the foresight to know it would get better again. In a couple years maybe, but it would get better.

[jonnylax]

Im sure its a great time to buy on the secondary market, I was curious if Rolex as a brand overall slows down and the prices at the AD stay the same or does rolex ever allow AD's to do deep discounts or anything....

[KDS777]

Originally Posted by ras47

On Wall Street I was offered a Gold Presidential for $10,000 if I had cash on hand.

The price of gold at the time made it worth $6K in scrap value alone...........damn that was a deal.

[77T]

Some badly damaged gold Rolex heads and bracelets made it to the scrap bin in last recession - and the movements were eBay'd. But the problem was individuals who wanted to sell went to closest pawnshop. Nothing wrong with that, but the asking prices for preowned Rolex didn't drop like a truly deep depression.

As you asked about a real depression, it would mean a Rolex might be traded for a shopping basket of groceries if rampant inflation was also experienced.

If you have money to spend, and wait it out, you might be able to profit since prices could drop to 50% of today's preowned levels.


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[BristolCavendish]

Originally Posted by armen34

Luxury and ultra luxury goods don't deprecate much even in a market downturn.

Agreed. Going back to the 1980s, brand new Rolexes and BMWs/Porsches continued to increase in price as usual and pre-owned models still commanded what seemed a standardized asking price.

It's all based on one's financial accessibilities as inflation rages on.

[jonnylax]

thanks guys.. just wanted a little lesson on the rolex history over the years... i would imagine since they are worldwide that Rolex as a brand does not really feel much of a hit...

I am personally in the high risk loan business and I noticed during 2007-2009 a lot of people I deal with were pawning items, I also have been looking at getting in the pawn shop business and i have watched it very close over the years deciding if I want to invest in a shop.... but I personally saw people bringing Rolexes to pawn shops like you said above.. I remember one time I was in there and a guy came in to see what they would buy his date just with diamond markers for, they offered him 3000... the guy walked out front and said he would be back, he came up to me for a business card and I told him he could get more listing it on the internet, or if he's really wanting to get rid of it I will buy it... and he ended up going back to the pawn shop and taking around 2800 I was shocked...

[Yzord]

When prices goes down, then it is time to buy

[fusionstorm]

I can speak to what the vintage market was like, as well as what modern Daytonas, LV Subs and DSSDs were going for during the Great Recession, as I was an active buyer of vintage then and was interested in a couple of modern pieces as well. Vintage definitely saw a noticeable downward slide in prices, especially as there had been a solid run up in value for a good number of years beforehand. While "choice" examples of vintage (e.g. pristine Double Red SDs and Paul Newman Daytonas) weren't readily available at a decent price b/c owners were typically content to wait until the market improved, there still were plenty of deals to be had. Any savvy purchase of vintage sports models during that time has seen a very nice increase in value.

As for modern Daytonas, LV Subs and DSSDs, I clearly remember lots of deals to be had on the secondary market for all of those. I'm talking slightly worn 116509 WG Daytona full sets in the $16K range, along with new LV Sub sets and DSSD sets for way less than retail. It was pretty difficult not to get a good deal on sport models then if you did some searching and had some patience.

My 2 cents about the next downturn - - - it won't be as severe as the Great Recession. We have yet to see "once in a lifetime" level events repeat themselves immediately after. The level of liquidity that many companies and individuals have now compared to 2008-2009 is night & day IMO.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by ras47

On Wall Street I was offered a Gold Presidential for $10,000 if I had cash on hand. That was 2008. I was still an Omega guy and had no interest in Rolex, other than my grail watch - The GMT Pepsi. If I had a clue about real value and what would eventually happen in the watch market I would have jumped on the deal. But at the time, when things looked darkest, few people had the foresight to know it would get better again. In a couple years maybe, but it would get better.

Was it a new DD?

[ras47]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Was it a new DD?

Not new, and not full size.

[wantonebad]

If buying, just make sure BEFORE you purchase that you have all your key emergency financial protections in place so that you can weather any kind of economic storm. If you are looking to take advantage of lower prices don't count on them. Used items may be more available at slightly lower prices but the desirable models will still be in demand and command comparable prices. Rolex will cut production and staff before they devalue their watches by lowering prices.

[Sperry]

In '09 I bought a pristine 16264 TOG. Pristine. I think it was $2,400 delivered.

[KDS777]

Most of us here probably don't need to sell our Rolexes if TSHTF. How many of us here could and would buy another watch if it did ? I sure would.

So, there are buyers out there all the time in any economy, and if pricing goes down the pool of available buyers increases, thereby improving liquidity as well. People will still buy certain things all the time.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by ras47

Not new, and not full size.

Not full size is a woman's DD?

[fusionstorm]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Not full size is a woman's DD?

Probably referring to the 36mm version, rather than the 41mm........

[Etschell]

most people who buy rolex are immune to recessionary forces. the 2ndary market may go down but the retail prices wont.

[Rolex addict]

I picked up a mint, full set 16622 Yachtmaster for $4500. The market was soft and there were deals out there, but nothing ridiculously cheap. AD's were giving bigger discounts than they are now, but still nothing that I would call an incredible deal.

[piratepress]

Originally Posted by KDS777

Most of us here probably don't need to sell our Rolexes if TSHTF. How many of us here could and would buy another watch if it did ? I sure would.

Same here. I'm not necessarily in the market for another Rolex, but if the opportunity presented itself for a fantastic deal during an economic downturn, I would jump on it.

[locutus49]

When the Zombie apocalypse happens, I'll die wearing my Rolex.

[Sperry]

Originally Posted by locutus49

When the Zombie apocalypse happens, I'll die wearing my Rolex.

When the "Can I wear my Rolex during a Zombie Apocalypse?" thread came up, I couldn't believe the number of people who said, "Leave it in the safe".

I'm with you on wearing your Rolex during a Zombie Apocalypse. Fight back. Die another day.

[KDS777]

Yeah but.........you shouldn't wear PM Rolexes because they attract the zombies and the SS ones don't.