Trying to return to Rolex. Help me understand whats going on

[Jefferson87]

Hey guys. Great forum.

Ok. I haven't purchased a new Rolex for about 20 years. I understand that there is a run on certain models. So, is this a real deal run on product? I mean are there just so many new potential buyers that Rolex can't keep up or is this shortage created by individual people waiting on new AD delivered units then selling grey market at a big mark-up?

When did this demand begin to affect supply? Is it a recent phenomenon? I guess what I'm trying to figure out is this a short term passing issue or is the ability to buy a watch at an AD with out a long wait a permanent problem?

Thanks for your insight in advance.

[zjd168]

All you can get from here are just personal speculation period.

[c41006]

Most professional models are difficult to find with some being harder to get than others. The reasons behind the “shortage” is unknown. Many people have plausible theories as to why the “shortage” exists but nobody knows for sure.

[Gaijin]

Nobody knows really. Is the shortage artificial and intentional by Rolex or unintentional and being rectified.



Nobody knows. Good time to be an owner and not so great a time to be entering or reentering the market.

Nutshell.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Jefferson87

Hey guys. Great forum.

Ok. I haven't purchased a new Rolex for about 20 years. I understand that there is a run on certain models. So, is this a real deal run on product? I mean are there just so many new potential buyers that Rolex can't keep up or is this shortage created by individual people waiting on new AD delivered units then selling grey market at a big mark-up?

When did this demand begin to affect supply? Is it a recent phenomenon? I guess what I'm trying to figure out is this a short term passing issue or is the ability to buy a watch at an AD with out a long wait a permanent problem?

Thanks for your insight in advance.

Plenty of DJ, TT and PM in stock and ready for purchase

[TRM]

Supply and demand. Real or artificial, who knows??

[Seibei]

I would not call the increased demand from countries such as China artificial.

[Devildog]

Everyone who should know says that demand has grown exponentially and Rolex can’t keep up. As a result, the ability to profiteer from Rolex’s inability to meet demand has created the current premiums.

Some of the conspiracy theorists on here will tell you that Rolex is artificially restricting supply.

Whether you believe the realists or the theorists is up to you

[AK797]

Originally Posted by Gaijin

Nobody knows really. Is the shortage artificial and intentional by Rolex or unintentional and being rectified.



Nobody knows. Good time to be an owner and not so great a time to be entering or reentering the market.

Nutshell.

Yup, really bad time to be coming to Rolex... altho the price action has probably brought a lot of people to the well too.

[Jefferson87]

Thanks for the insight guys. It's really amazing to me people pay thousands over list for anything that really isn't limited edition. I know there are many people out there who won't notice an extra 5-8 grand out of thier bank account. But wow.

Seems like the move here is that I should walk into my AD and commit with cash to 75-100k of sport watches and resell them on here. Even if the supply suddenly catches up to the market, I should be able to get close to MSRP for them as they come in.

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by Jefferson87

Seems like the move here is that I should walk into my AD and commit with cash to 75-100k of sport watches and resell them on here. Even if the supply suddenly catches up to the market, I should be able to get close to MSRP for them as they come in.

Good luck with that...

[American Jedi]

Not a good time. Come back later.

[LA_LEC]

Originally Posted by Jefferson87

Thanks for the insight guys. It's really amazing to me people pay thousands over list for anything that really isn't limited edition. I know there are many people out there who won't notice an extra 5-8 grand out of thier bank account. But wow.

Seems like the move here is that I should walk into my AD and commit with cash to 75-100k of sport watches and resell them on here. Even if the supply suddenly catches up to the market, I should be able to get close to MSRP for them as they come in.

I agree that it is absurd to pay over MSRP for anything.

You are right though that some will pay since money is not really a concern. Especially a few grand here and there.

[c41006]

Originally Posted by American Jedi

Not a good time. Come back later.

Pretty much sums it up

[Jefferson87]

Originally Posted by LA_LEC

I agree that it is absurd to pay over MSRP for anything.

You are right though that some will pay since money is not really a concern. Especially a few grand here and there.

I can afford a few grand here and there, but giving money away for no reason is not how I got the money to start with! Lol

Hey to each their own. Plenty of my friends tell me it the cost of doing business. Maybe for them. Not me.

I'll get free in the next few weeks and start my search and report back to you guys.

[Rose Gold]

My recommendation is to avoid overthinking this. If you find a Rolex that you like at an AD, and the price is at MSRP, you should pick it up. It doesn’t really matter what the market is doing if you find a watch you like.

Joe

Originally Posted by Jefferson87

Hey guys. Great forum.

Ok. I haven't purchased a new Rolex for about 20 years. I understand that there is a run on certain models. So, is this a real deal run on product? I mean are there just so many new potential buyers that Rolex can't keep up or is this shortage created by individual people waiting on new AD delivered units then selling grey market at a big mark-up?

When did this demand begin to affect supply? Is it a recent phenomenon? I guess what I'm trying to figure out is this a short term passing issue or is the ability to buy a watch at an AD with out a long wait a permanent problem?

Thanks for your insight in advance.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by American Jedi

Not a good time. Come back later.

Spot on....not the time to come back to the brand.

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by Jefferson87

Thanks for the insight guys. It's really amazing to me people pay thousands over list for anything that really isn't limited edition. I know there are many people out there who won't notice an extra 5-8 grand out of thier bank account. But wow.

Seems like the move here is that I should walk into my AD and commit with cash to 75-100k of sport watches and resell them on here. Even if the supply suddenly catches up to the market, I should be able to get close to MSRP for them as they come in.

Good luck buying 75K-100K worth of sport model watches. It is nice to dream, and that you certainly are!

[Seibei]

Originally Posted by Bigblu10

Good luck buying 75K-100K worth of sport model watches. It is nice to dream, and that you certainly are!

It can probably be done, as long as he buys about 200K worth of DJs and precious metal models.

[HogwldFLTR]

I'm trying to buy a $14K watch; here is the most recent communications I've received. It appears that the dealers aren't being given much leeway in their sale of professional models.

Here is an update after the visit from our Rolex representative.

Rolex instructions for ALL of the new Oyster Professional series pieces is that we are to currently treat them as the steel Daytona. In other words no orders(payments) are currently allowed. We are to wait to receive our respective stores allotment whenever they may come. Once the pieces arrive it is up to store internal personnel to decide who to sell to. I can say that you are on the top of my list for the model you are interested in. I will reach out when I have one to sell you.

[yessir69]

I think Rolex has always used scarcity marketing for the Daytona. The steel sport models are currently in higher demand. It won’t last forever.

[clb521]

The shortage is about a year old now. This time last year wasnt too bad. I remembwr because i was shopping for a watch for my birthday and found out that some watches were cheaper thru grey market and some were the same price brand new.

Now it seems like all watches especially ss sports are selling at retail prices even in grey market. They are usually only a few bucks cheaper. Most ADs dont even have ss sports watches in stock.

I think rolex slowed down production to hold or increase value. They could increase production 20% and it would help meet customer demand but they arent. Same with new daytonas. They could increase production to meet the demand. Hell they could triple output on the daytona and it would barely make a dent.

Its all about exclusivity. Its not a brand that needs to prove itself. I think this may be the new norm but hey hopefully im wrong.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

[Jefferson87]

Originally Posted by clb521

The shortage is about a year old now. This time last year wasnt too bad. I remembwr because i was shopping for a watch for my birthday and found out that some watches were cheaper thru grey market and some were the same price brand new.

Now it seems like all watches especially ss sports are selling at retail prices even in grey market. They are usually only a few bucks cheaper. Most ADs dont even have ss sports watches in stock.

I think rolex slowed down production to hold or increase value. They could increase production 20% and it would help meet customer demand but they arent. Same with new daytonas. They could increase production to meet the demand. Hell they could triple output on the daytona and it would barely make a dent.

Its all about exclusivity. Its not a brand that needs to prove itself. I think this may be the new norm but hey hopefully im wrong.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Yeah. It does seems like the corporate model has shifted. It's too bad. They make a nice product, but it's certainly not an exclusive product.

If the shortage issues are really only a year or so old, the bubble will likely burst and all the grey market sellers will have excess inventory even if the AD's are light on product. You can only hold an artificial high price on a 5 or 10 year old watch for so long if the market has plenty of inventory. All the greys who have 10 or more older similar units and want close to 80% or 90% of retail will eventually relent and adjust prices.

It will be interesting to watch.

[Muxi]

You may want to choose one reference from the many non-hyped models that are readily available at ADs.

[JR16]

Originally Posted by Jefferson87

Thanks for the insight guys. It's really amazing to me people pay thousands over list for anything that really isn't limited edition. I know there are many people out there who won't notice an extra 5-8 grand out of thier bank account. But wow.

Seems like the move here is that I should walk into my AD and commit with cash to 75-100k of sport watches and resell them on here. Even if the supply suddenly catches up to the market, I should be able to get close to MSRP for them as they come in.

Oh boy- this is a good way to lose a lot of money as you’ll be buying DJs, OPs, and exp2s, all of which you will take a hit on re-selling... cheaper for you to pay over retail to a grey if you don’t want to wait for an AD.


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[lecorsaire]

This situation will pass. I’m not so sure about 5 digit prices ever going back down though especially the 16610LV Kermit, 16710 Pepsi & Coke and especially the 16520 Zenith Daytona. If you want any of those I would buy one now.

The only sports Rolex that can still be had for a discount are the TT Subs, Daytonas, both Explorers and all Milgauss. Yachtmaster as well but for almost nothing off.

I think if you’re not buying PM, TT or vintage pieces now is really the worst time to buy anything. I keep seeing people refer to steel Sub Dates as rare lol! You know things are not normal when black Subs are not readily available. Before this even the Hulk wasn’t really selling like crazy. Many jewelers in NYC were selling them for $7500-8000 in mint condition.

Trends come and go. Buy what you really want and what you’re comfortable paying for it.