Will a collapse of the Chinese housing market bubble end the SS shortage?

[mangoseed]

As a lot of people know, the amount of consumer debt in China keeps rising, which now has a debt/GDP of more than 300%. Not to mention the huge amounts of empty apartment buildings. The extent to which many Chinese will go to buy second or third homes as investments is just madness. Some couples will even legally divorce (but stay together) to circumvent the government restrictions of a married couple only owning two homes.

Anyway, this would have a huge impact to the Chinese economy and some knock on effect to the global economy.

[harvey]

I remember when this forum used to discuss details and merits of different references. Miss those days...

[Dsmith1974]

Hard to say without knowing the real reason for the shortage but at the very least a bear market should drop the prices at the greys. If you’re lucky enough to be independandly rich then it would be a good time to buy. Many will have bigger problems to worry about...

[Brew]

And to think, I was just wondering about the price of tea in China!

[jsausley]

No, I don't think the market on China really has as much to do with this as people claim. I think it's the fact that global demand is up significantly due to social media and hype, with strong economic conditions supporting it all from the background.

[faimag]

Yes, SS are going to start pouring into AD displays...

[Sublovin]

Please stop

[The Pontiff]

Difficult to say without knowing what proportion of Rolex watches go to China anyway, but the effect would probably be large.

[koronet-kid]

Originally Posted by harvey

I remember when this forum used to discuss details and merits of different references. Miss those days...

I feel your pain

[mangoseed]

Why was this thread moved???

[Abdullah71601]

Originally Posted by mangoseed

Why was this thread moved???

This is the correct forum for obscura.

[mangoseed]

Originally Posted by Abdullah71601

This is the correct forum for obscura.

This is a question about Rolex watches supply

[SearChart]

Originally Posted by mangoseed

This is a question about Rolex watches supply

I think it is right where it should be.

[brandrea]

Originally Posted by SearChart

I think it is right where it should be.

So young yet very wise

[Fat_ninja]

So few people understand the impact of chinese housing price inflation on the world of consumption.

OP i dont know the asnwer specific to your question, as its a small subset of the world of luxey goods which have momentum still and creates a FOMO environment. I’ve been following this for work for over a decade.. And ive been concerned about the derioration most recently the past 3-5 months. Pricss are repoted near zero and likely already negative. Chinese ownership is significantly higher than other countries and sonits a wealth effect issue as i think is what your thread was designed to be about.

Whats curious is that the govt has shored up the banking system this pat week but that doesnt change the direction of travel of prices it just stabilizes liquidity...so i am a bit concerned still doesnt mean people will buy more houses to move prices up given declining land prices.

As it relates to SS rolex...id assume there is a marginal impact on all things. You can see the luxry good. Sales trends decelerate.

I have a specific view on how this chronologically plays out with a 2h19 stabilization. But this is a watch forum lol so ill keep my views to myself.

[77T]

When did BC begin eating Mangoes?
That’s what I’d like to know.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[Dan Pierce]

Originally Posted by harvey

I remember when this forum used to discuss details and merits of different references. Miss those days...

^This.
dP

[Art 1]

Originally Posted by 77T

When did BC begin eating Mangoes?
That’s what I’d like to know.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[mangoseed]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

So few people understand the impact of chinese housing price inflation on the world of consumption.

OP i dont know the asnwer specific to your question, as its a small subset of the world of luxey goods which have momentum still and creates a FOMO environment. I’ve been following this for work for over a decade.. And ive been concerned about the derioration most recently the past 3-5 months. Pricss are repoted near zero and likely already negative. Chinese ownership is significantly higher than other countries and sonits a wealth effect issue as i think is what your thread was designed to be about.

Whats curious is that the govt has shored up the banking system this pat week but that doesnt change the direction of travel of prices it just stabilizes liquidity...so i am a bit concerned still doesnt mean people will buy more houses to move prices up given declining land prices.

As it relates to SS rolex...id assume there is a marginal impact on all things. You can see the luxry good. Sales trends decelerate.

I have a specific view on how this chronologically plays out with a 2h19 stabilization. But this is a watch forum lol so ill keep my views to myself.

I appreciate your informative reply, the FOMO thing makes sense, I have heard a few Chinese friends say how they would definitely invest in the property market if they had the money, they cannot comprehend a decrease in value because they have only seen the prices increase.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by mangoseed

I appreciate your informative reply, the FOMO thing makes sense, I have heard a few Chinese friends say how they would definitely invest in the property market if they had the money, they cannot comprehend a decrease in value because they have only seen the prices increase.

This event they are facing is like the US housing bubble popping in 2008/9. The closest we came to china’s ‘oh chit’ moment was in late 2015. They stabilized the market by forcing inflation up. At the same time the air quality was deteriorating... so the ‘clean air, blue skies’ effort helped to shore up prices and sentiment which you can see by PPI measures.

This time its a little different as they are running out of options and just need brute force. But prices collectively are declining with PPI starting to roll over. They have a chance to stimulate during the works council. But question is if they will or not. Premier Li is a free market guy.


We shall see.


Personally im taking the opportunity of availability to buy more watcheS :)

[THC]

Dangerously close to a political thread ... ibtl

[mangoseed]

Originally Posted by THC

Dangerously close to a political thread ... ibtl

Economics are completely different from politics.

[TK-710]

Originally Posted by 77T

When did BC begin eating Mangoes?
That’s what I’d like to know.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

He probably switched to mangoes shortly after he moved to the UK where the colleges are better. Probably left his old neighborhood because his neighbor’s dog kept ��ing on his lawn and passerbys kept stealing his lemons.

[mangoseed]

Originally Posted by JES77

He probably switched to mangoes shortly after he moved to the UK where the colleges are better. Probably left his old neighborhood because his neighbor’s dog kept ��ing on his lawn and passerbys kept stealing his lemons.

What are you talking about?

[TK-710]

Originally Posted by mangoseed

What are you talking about?

I’m referring to a former poster who was banned here. He was referred to as BC for short. I think you’d like him. You’d be surprised by how much you have in common.

[Brew]

I never met BC, but I suspect he'd prefer pits to seeds.

[mangoseed]

Originally Posted by JES77

I’m referring to a former poster who was banned here. He was referred to as BC for short. I think you’d like him. You’d be surprised by how much you have in common.

Why was he banned?

[superdog]

I think this is an interesting question.

If the Chinese luxury watch market shrinks significantly, it seems reasonable some watches will be shipped to other locations.

And many believe the shortage is due to an inability to produce more watches.

Personally, I think the shrinking economy as a whole will certainly create more availability.

[TK-710]

Originally Posted by mangoseed

Why was he banned?

Lots of reasons. Most recently for coming back under a different username. Undoubtedly he’ll try again.

[mangoseed]

Originally Posted by JES77

Lots of reasons. Most recently for coming back under a different username. Undoubtedly he’ll try again.

The original reason