The real reason for the SS shortage: No real competition in the SS market

[MTBer]

Originally Posted by tbjerm

I wonder what patina will develop on a rubber bezel insert from a 40 year old PO. Fashion-wise, might match the soles of some vintage Brooks.

I agree with you. Omega will throw everything at the wall, see what sticks-- what stands out. Then, decades later, incorporate those aspects into a new version, with a "limited edition" spinoff. However, regarding technological improvements, I wouldn't necessarily say that they're behind Rolex.

I should have been more clear; Omega is still behind Rolex in terms of prestige, brand recognition and public perception, despite their technical accomplishments, which I believe to be superior to Rolex in recent times.

[Paul_I]

Originally Posted by 904VT

A few reasons. Asia, and China more specifically and their regulatory changes. Second, many watch brands for lack of a better term are junk. Not advocating by any means that a watch should be an investment, but when you buy from boutique and next month have a watch worth 60% of the the msrp, what's the point to be quite honest.

Same could be said for cars and boats, but I still like them.

[JacksonStone]

Mangoseed, thanks for starting this thread. It's fun to actually discuss and debate the merits of different brands and models. It's been a breath of fresh air from the regular availability, valuation and prediction threads - notwithstanding the fact I am a regular participant in those threads, too.

[MTBer]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

Mangoseed, thanks for starting this thread. It's fun to actually discuss and debate the merits of different brands and models. It's been a breath of fresh air from the regular availability, valuation and prediction threads - notwithstanding the fact I am a regular participant in those threads, too.

Seconded

I tried this on last weekend and liked it- two tone, but far, far more subtle than the Bluesy. Ticks quite a few boxes for me- TT, display back, METAS Omega...sadly just one spring barrel though

[tbjerm]

Originally Posted by MTBer

I should have been more clear; Omega is still behind Rolex in terms of prestige, brand recognition and public perception, despite their technical accomplishments, which I believe to be superior to Rolex in recent times.

I tend to agree with you. I agree that their technical accomplishments are superior to Rolex in recent times for certain models. The coaxial escapement versus what Rolex is bringing out with the 32 series movements, however, and the robustness of the cases may still give Rolex technologically the same, or a slightly more competitive edge. Watchbox has done some reviews pitting the Omega with its comparable Rolex against each other and seeing who takes the crown. Sub lost to Seamster, but Sea Dweller kept its crown against the Planet Ocean. So overall, perhaps they are both "as good" in general, with some models having superiority, however the brand recognition, prestige, and public perception now, and likely will always, go to Rolex. If we add price tag to the mix, though, then many watch enthusiasts would opt for the Omega over the Rolex and say that price wise, and technologically, they're better than the rolex, and certainly at the price point.

Just for fun, here are my impressions technologically:
* 32 series comparable to the coaxial escapement
* chromalight better than superluminova
* 904 better than 316 (from personal experience)
* Engineering of the Rolex is better (better finish)
* durability of oyster case wins (including testing of the cased movements, except I think that METAS may involve a similar process)
* Superlative chronometer comparable to METAS

So overall, technologically, pretty similar edge. Price wise, Omega wins. Prestige, brand recognition, and public perception, Rolex will always win. Worth extra several grand? Likely, yes, as that factors into price to the extent that you'll lose in value retention from the omega about what you'd pay extra for the rolex, and in many cases get back the same or more for what you put into the Rolex. Why I'm a Rolex guy but I do really like Omega. Try to convince myself to get Omega constantly, using the tech superiority/innovation argument and the price to justify it.

Cheers, mate

[Kaioken x20]

Agreed.
my friends and I call them shitters

Originally Posted by Dr Watches

True. Most brands are trash.

[904VT]

Originally Posted by Paul_I

Same could be said for cars and boats, but I still like them.

Agreed 100%

Those high depreciation purchases are just the ones i buy pre-owned.

[Michigan_State]

Originally Posted by roleplay

this is the very reason why i personally think rolex should slow down on their novelties. Since 2015, they've been churning out so many new things, it's got to take its toll eventually. I think if they release a coke only one year after pepsi, it's a wrong move in my opinion. How many variations of the gmt can the market take before it becomes ridiculous?

+1

So so true. They are essentially running the risk of becoming a fashion brand. 99% of the is it safe to... and I leave my stickers on folks will eventually move on, which might leave the brand depleted. Let’s see.

[Rolexavidfan]

Originally Posted by dtwer

I agree. Rolex plays the long game and also has the discipline to not get distracted by the short-term market fluctuations.

Very true! My biggest regret was not taking on the LV and the Sub ND 5 digit version at a great price some 10 years ago. At that time, the craze were all those humongous watch where I went along with. All of those watches are long gone. It’s a good thing I had the sense to shift and scored a Daytona SS White which is still with me till this date.

Congrats to Rolex, they certainly know what they’re doing as well as playing the long game.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[hon]

Been following Rolex for many years. Bought my 1st rolex a 114270 15 years ago . Worn it daily for good 10 years before I got myself the Sub Date C. Worn the Sub for 5 years without thinking and following watch trend much until recently my spouse asking for a rolex. Brought her to AD for a DJ and got a big shock discovering the SS shortage, empty cases and even little discount for lady DJ.
I been considering for a Exp2 or DJ2 for my next rolex after i got my Sub but since I discover the Rolex madness I make the swift decision to get the DJ41 at MSRP while I still can. I even need to look for 4 AD in my country for a Silver dial DJ41. As I getting older my taste changed, I prefer the bigger DJ41 for a daily beater than the Exp2. Been eyeing the Exp2 black dial since it launch but some how just can't pull the trigger for it.
I enjoy wearing my rolex as daily beater than keeping them or buying and flipping. Just like how often a person will drive and change his car?
After I bought my Sub 5yrs ago I did tried to look at the other brands, other alternatives than rolex because been following rolex for so long, over the years I felt the prices getting higher and ridiculous and asking myself is the watch worth so much money?
After the recent purchase of DJ41 i look even harder at other brands. Tudor, Omega but they just don't click with me. Firstly I got the budget can afford a Rolex and most important I willing to spend the money so why I make myself settle for less? I should buy a watch I like, I want, I love. Not looking for alternative.
Looking at my 15yrs old Exp1 the watch still running fine til today and over the years I did dropped it once on hard marble floor.
I paid USD$3+k for my Exp1 15years ago. I remember during that era people are crazy and mad about Big watches, many are chasing for Panerai but how are these brands doing today? How many 15yrs old watches from that era, at the price range are comparable to my 36mm 114270 today? The 114270 still a classic and running fine so I'm thinking for a TT DJ or DD for my next purchase.

[inadeje]

GS is and will be a passing fad. There’s been a bit of hype surrounding GS lately and where there is hype there are sheep. Needless to say, they’ll be valueless when the hype subsides.

[JacksonStone]

Originally Posted by inadeje

GS is and will be a passing fad. There’s been a bit of hype surrounding GS lately and where there is hype there are sheep. Needless to say, they’ll be valueless when the hype subsides.

One thing I noticed is when I first became aware of GS about eight or so years ago, they were priced closer to Rolex territory, at least in the US. At the time, the SGBH005 was priced above $7,000. Now, its successor, the 205, is below $6,000. The higher prices were around the time GS was starting to get into the US market, and I wonder if they misjudged the prices their watches could command, finding they had to adjust downward.

[hon]

Originally Posted by inadeje

GS is and will be a passing fad. There’s been a bit of hype surrounding GS lately and where there is hype there are sheep. Needless to say, they’ll be valueless when the hype subsides.

Been looking at GS for years too. Some how just can't pull the trigger for it.
the GS servicing and repair need to send back to Japan and their design are limited.
If I 'm look for a daily beat with smaller budget I will consider the GS quartz.
I really hope there will be a hype, madness, craze for GS so rolex madness can cool down and over. It will be easier to get a rolex and with bigger discount.

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by JacksonStone

All of this is subjective, but my subjective view is there is merit to the claim. Take the Seamaster 300 Master Co-Axial, for instance. Although listed as a 41mm watch, the case itself is actually 39mm; only the bezel measures 41mm. Total watch thickness is 15mm. 39mm diameter with 15mm thickness is a pretty stubby ratio to begin with, imo. But when you then factor in that a lot of the thickness is in the caseback, and the official diameter of 41mm comes from a bezel that overhangs the edges of the case, the design ends up looking top heavy.

Unfortunately, this seems endemic to all of Omega's in-house offerings, which I attribute to a combination of movement thickness and Omega's insistence on giving all of their watches display backs. And those are just the three-hand watches. The chronographs are into hockey puck territory.

I want to like Omega. But every time I try various models on, they all feel thick and uncomfortable. The Rolex DJ41, Sub, and GMT are thinner and far more comfortable than Omega Aqua Terra, Planet Ocean, and GMT (PO or AT). Fact.

[Chaching]

Omega is as soft as D #$!&. This is the Rolex Forum right?

[SkyJuice]

Supply < Demand

[Oat Willy]

Resale value aside, there are plenty of great alternatives to Rolex. Make the poor resale value an advantage by buying used.

Sorry, but if you're paying double retail or close to it on the secondary market for a current production model Rolex, you're a fool

[Wristwatcherboy]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

I'm afraid I have to agree with the OP post about the current state of the watch industry...other than Rolex, AP and Patek.

Brands are just lost...adrift in a murky mix of marketing confusion, design indecision, and overproduction..

It is so bad in fact that I think the success of Rolex will cull weaker brands similar to the quartz crisis of the 1970's. The gap in the brands is that great that the dominance of Rolex, combined with emergence "smart" watches and the overall softening of the watch industry will put them under.

Omega is probably the best adjusted at the moment as they keep their Speedy Pro consistent and issue some relevant LE versions now that people actually want.

The rest of the Speedy lineup is unneeded. DSOTM and the rest. Just waiting to be blown out at 40% off.

The Seamaster lineup is a mess. Too many models..and they keep changing the design every year. Some are vintage looking , some are modern. Some are this, some are that...Too many!

The other Omega references nobody cares about at all, so they aren't worth mentioning.

And folks....Omega is the BEST of the sad lot pumping out watches right now.

IWC? They put out a few LE watches that people liked and some of the SIHH pilots look ok, but again...too many models. Plus they are making bronze pilot watches? Bronze? That's so 2010 and should be for dive watches. That is just being totally out of touch with the market.

Panerai? Oh boy...where to start. The Due? All the crazy material for Submersibles that have huge retails? Not what the market wants guys (unless you are RM)....They claim the Due is, but that is just alienating Paneristis as it is basically a Michael Kors edition of a Luminor. Just nasty stuff.

Breitling. Wow they are in rough shape. When you go to the boutique and they admit that business stinks because they don't have a model that anybody wants, that is really bad. They must make 2000 versions of the Navitimer, which is just poison. Who can even figure out what they want? Forget it, I'll just get a Rolex.

Hublot? Not even worth discussing. I think they going to wind up going out of business. Just my opinion, but whatever mojo they had, that is long gone.

So, this a broken record. i could list other brands and it's the same tune. Poor design and overproduction combined with lazy marketing leaves them out on the street for Rolex to steamroll...

With the greatest of respect this is the attitude of a classic Rolex fanboy who can and will hear of no other watch brand. Your posts are always in defence of Rolex, always saying those who can’t get a Rolex don’t deserve a Rolex, always defending the “shortage”, happy to see every other watch brand “go under” (despite however many hundreds of thousands will lose their livelihoods). You just will not hear a single bad word said against them- not even justified constructive criticism.

There is only one broken record here.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by Wristwatcherboy

With the greatest of respect this is the attitude of a classic Rolex fanboy who can and will hear of no other watch brand. Your posts are always in defence of Rolex, always saying those who can’t get a Rolex don’t deserve a Rolex, always defending the “shortage”, happy to see every other watch brand “go under” (despite however many hundreds of thousands will lose their livelihoods). You just will not hear a single bad word said against them- not even justified constructive criticism.

There is only one broken record here.

Huh?

[Brew]

Originally Posted by Roll X

So true
If someone would provide a link to the "2019 Authorized Watch Dimension Requirements" I would certainly appreciate it.

That would be called a, "shirt cuff."

[mr_gray]

wristwatcherboy - i must urgently raise a couple of points:
1. politeness - you have some great stuff to say however i think as a relatively new person perhaps you do not understand the terms on which we forum dwellers are allowed to exist. your lack of courtesy/respect when addressing fleetlord could be the end of you yet. the moderators tend to act decisively around here. i hope not but we will see.
2. not only is fleetlord a long standing member, but he is also a person who foretold these days of rolex shortage. far from being a rolex fanboy he is proven to be an astute observer of the overall watch industry. his contribution to the forum is quite immense and i think he deserves some respect for this.

if we could be at pains to restrain ourselves from the ad moninem please.

photo of two watches to calm the situation down

[rambo99]

panerai didnt raise their competitiveness on the ss models either, their new 42mm ss models were set at a msrp even higher than that of the ss submariner/gmt. they even changed the movement into a non inhouse one.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by rambo99

panerai didnt raise their competitiveness on the ss models either, their new 42mm ss models were set at a msrp even higher than that of the ss submariner.

they priced the carbotech submersibles ABOVE an AP diver.

I quite like the watch, but that is madness no matter how you look at it.

[Wristwatcherboy]

Originally Posted by mr_gray

wristwatcherboy - i must urgently raise a couple of points:
1. politeness - you have some great stuff to say however i think as a relatively new person perhaps you do not understand the terms on which we forum dwellers are allowed to exist. your lack of courtesy/respect when addressing fleetlord could be the end of you yet. the moderators tend to act decisively around here. i hope not but we will see.
2. not only is fleetlord a long standing member, but he is also a person who foretold these days of rolex shortage. far from being a rolex fanboy he is proven to be an astute observer of the overall watch industry. his contribution to the forum is quite immense and i think he deserves some respect for this.

if we could be at pains to restrain ourselves from the ad moninem please.

photo of two watches to calm the situation down

You are right, I apologise to Fleetlord. Just don’t like the thought of watch brands going under and people losing their jobs.

Apologies again, and thanks for your post and wise words!

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Wristwatcherboy

With the greatest of respect this is the attitude of a classic Rolex fanboy who can and will hear of no other watch brand. Your posts are always in defence of Rolex, always saying those who can’t get a Rolex don’t deserve a Rolex, always defending the “shortage”, happy to see every other watch brand “go under” (despite however many hundreds of thousands will lose their livelihoods). You just will not hear a single bad word said against them- not even justified constructive criticism.

There is only one broken record here.

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Huh?

Originally Posted by Wristwatcherboy

You are right, I apologise to Fleetlord. Just don’t like the thought of watch brands going under and people losing their jobs.

Apologies again, and thanks for your post and wise words!

fleetlord is the voice of reason in a sea of pretty wild conspiracy theories and wishful thinking. Reality is the reality and its harsh

I happen to like a lot of the brands that are "in trouble". Doesn't mean they are not great watches, but it is what it is.

[Cru Jones]

Originally Posted by TswaneNguni

Nobody else has 904L steel.

Several other brands do. Girard-Perregaux is an example.

[tyler1980]

Originally Posted by Cru Jones

Several other brands do. Girard-Perregaux is an example.

thats why its rebranded Oystersteel, got to keep up the marketing hype

[Cru Jones]

Originally Posted by tyler1980

thats why its rebranded Oystersteel, got to keep up the marketing hype

Exactly. And for sure, when it comes to marketing hype, Rolex is the clear #1.

[MSchott]

Originally Posted by hon

Been looking at GS for years too. Some how just can't pull the trigger for it.
the GS servicing and repair need to send back to Japan and their design are limited.
If I 'm look for a daily beat with smaller budget I will consider the GS quartz.
I really hope there will be a hype, madness, craze for GS so rolex madness can cool down and over. It will be easier to get a rolex and with bigger discount.

For those in the US, most GS models are serviced here, not Japan.

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by mr_gray

wristwatcherboy - i must urgently raise a couple of points:
1. politeness - you have some great stuff to say however i think as a relatively new person perhaps you do not understand the terms on which we forum dwellers are allowed to exist. your lack of courtesy/respect when addressing fleetlord could be the end of you yet. the moderators tend to act decisively around here. i hope not but we will see.
2. not only is fleetlord a long standing member, but he is also a person who foretold these days of rolex shortage. far from being a rolex fanboy he is proven to be an astute observer of the overall watch industry. his contribution to the forum is quite immense and i think he deserves some respect for this.

if we could be at pains to restrain ourselves from the ad moninem please.

photo of two watches to calm the situation down

and those are the two references to stop anything in its tracks!

Thank you for the kind words. I just try to sift through as much chatter, info, theories..etc and come up with a clear picture of what’s going on out there. I appreciate your support.