submariner prices coming down in grey market

[akilis]

Originally Posted by Lucifer

is it due to rumors on new sub or updated movement?

got these prices

TT bluesy - 12k to 13k max.
date SS - 10k max
no date SS -9k
HULK - 13 to 15k

not just the sub, overall down a bit

[The1019]

They are all falling no one is feeding the greed any longer only the traders are left holding the watches no one wants to pay the over hyped prices and not should they either
Prices are falling and people are waking up the not feeding the greedy so that they can buy a watch at decent price
Rolex set a price if you think it’s worth more than Rolex charge it’s not a wise move for mass produced watches

[scurfa]

Originally Posted by vicsdca

If availability in ADs keeps getting worse while grey prices start coming down, that should tell you something...

Yes that the real fans and wearers are sick of playing this waiting game, I’m one of them, if you treat your real customers like this they eventually walk away leaving only speculators in the market place, squeezing supply could in time backfire especially at a company like Patek, Rolex I’m sure would bounce back.

[Yellowfury]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

You should be! Everyone who is in it for the fun of the watches and not a savings plan, should be as well.

watches are definitely for enjoyment. They're no substitute for a retirement account & savings.

[PatRols]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Dont get caught up in the hype man. Every sensible person knows these things are just watches and there is no way a luxury tangible item such as watches will continue to increase in value forever without a pullback and normalisation.

What is your reference mate? General statements are dangerous. There is a car and there is a Ferrari, there is a handbag and there is a Birkin Hermès, there is a sofa and there is a Paulin. The best of luxury items that suffer shortage of supply have always been sought for.

...just like there is a watch and there is a Rolex (or a Patek).



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[peterpl]

Originally Posted by PatRols

What is your reference mate? General statements are dangerous. There is a car and there is a Ferrari, there is a handbag and there is a Birkin Hermès, there is a sofa and there is a Paulin. The best of luxury items that suffer shortage of supply have always been sought for.
...just like there is a watch and there is a Rolex (or a Patek).
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My reference is my common sense.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by PatRols

What is your reference mate? General statements are dangerous. There is a car and there is a Ferrari, there is a handbag and there is a Birkin Hermès, there is a sofa and there is a Paulin. The best of luxury items that suffer shortage of supply have always been sought for.

...just like there is a watch and there is a Rolex (or a Patek).



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My reference is twofold...

1) Panerai-15 years ago they were white hot! Empty cases as AD, selling over MSRP, vintage stuff was increasing every time there was an auction. Fast forward to 10 years and people had enough. Values dropped like a led balloon, and many of the collectors who had their retirement savings in Panerai moved in to Rolex.

2) Rolex- for people new to the game, many do not realize this is new. Several years ago it wasn’t like this. Cases at every AD were filled and DISCOUNTS on new watches from an AD of about 15% was standard.

When you study these two facts alongside a general understanding of luxury market trends and hype, to think this will last forever is foolhardy.
To be clear I am a huge Rolex fan as well as Panerai. I buy watches to enjoy...stocks and real estate are for investing. I am looking forward to a market correction for Rolex so that I can reasonably buy more watches that I want, just as has happened with Panerai.

[Fire bloke]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

My reference is twofold...

1) read above

2) read above
just as has happened with Panerai.

Well said ,,sounds good to me

[PatRols]

Originally Posted by Sublovin

My reference is twofold...

1) Panerai-15 years ago they were white hot! Empty cases as AD, selling over MSRP, vintage stuff was increasing every time there was an auction. Fast forward to 10 years and people had enough. Values dropped like a led balloon, and many of the collectors who had their retirement savings in Panerai moved in to Rolex.

2) Rolex- for people new to the game, many do not realize this is new. Several years ago it wasn’t like this. Cases at every AD were filled and DISCOUNTS on new watches from an AD of about 15% was standard.

When you study these two facts alongside a general understanding of luxury market trends and hype, to think this will last forever is foolhardy.
To be clear I am a huge Rolex fan as well as Panerai. I buy watches to enjoy...stocks and real estate are for investing. I am looking forward to a market correction for Rolex so that I can reasonably buy more watches that I want, just as has happened with Panerai.

Haha! A lot of whishful thinking around here.

Reminds me 8 years ago when I declined buying a Paul Newman at €40k !

Now you need to define « forever ». 10 or 15 years from now who knows. But right now I am quite confident that these market conditions are there to last and Rolex will do all they can to keep it up. They adopted the exact same marketing/sales strategy as Ferrari and Hermès.

Wake up guys.



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[peterpl]

Originally Posted by PatRols

Haha! A lot of whishful thinking around here.
Reminds me 8 years ago when I declined buying a Paul Newman at €40k !
Wake up guys.

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Sure you did. LOL

How many "hot" pieces you got on ya? Better flip them before your left holding the bag.

[Sublovin]

Originally Posted by PatRols

Haha! A lot of whishful thinking around here.

Reminds me 8 years ago when I declined buying a Paul Newman at €40k !

Now you need to define « forever ». 10 or 15 years from now who knows. But right now I am quite confident that these market conditions are there to last and Rolex will do all they can to keep it up. They adopted the exact same marketing/sales strategy as Ferrari and Hermès.

Wake up guys.



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Ok, keep telling yourself that. Nobody is denying they have been on an upward trajectory....but to say it is infinitely sustainable is foolish at best. And back to your own example, Ferrari, have you followed their market dips and corrections? It isn’t always up, up, up
Go look up posts on the Paneristi forum from the early 2000’s and people were saying exactly what you are saying now.
I think we are very much awake....but you may be dreaming.

[Fat_ninja]

Originally Posted by Scapegoat

Enjoy your new Tudor watch, because you are going to be sleeping for awhile!

Lol

[locutus49]

You are British. How do I know? Because you said tonne and not ton.

Originally Posted by peterpl

Dont get caught up in the hype man. Every sensible person knows these things are just watches and there is no way a luxury tangible item such as watches will continue to increase in value forever without a pullback and normalisation.

Instagram and social media was the number 1 factor in all this hype. Once social media dies down for watches which is already happening there is going to be tonnes of ppl holding the bag on these pieces.

[904VT]

The Chinese/HK watch market is about to burst if the bubble hasn’t already. US is now the number 1 Swiss watch market. Rolex and others better wisen up or they will get hit too. They’ve been sending too many LVs and other allocation watches to those Asian markets (and allowing too many out of country purchases elsewhere) to remain truly diversified in revenue. With that correction we’ll easily see 2015 pricing again, which is why watches are not meant to be investments.

[PatRols]

Originally Posted by peterpl

Sure you did. LOL



How many "hot" pieces you got on ya? Better flip them before your left holding the bag.

Have never flipped any piece. Especially not the hot ones. Love them too much!


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[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Wake me up when daytonas sell for reasonable prices :)

CC me on that, too, please!

[No SUBctitute]

Originally Posted by locutus49

You are British. How do I know? Because you said tonne and not ton.

THAT. And the "normalisation."

[3sheets86]

So I take it this all refers to current models and not any of the discontinued?

[Roddypeepa]

Originally Posted by Podmornica

I hope all those gray flippers will eventually get caught with the stock at the same price they bought it from the AD.

I hope they get caught and have to sell at less than mrsp the cheeky fuckers. And the ADs who supplied them have to start selling TAG and Michael Kors.


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[locutus49]

Hey, Peter, since you seem to be a straight shooter, if hypothetically a grey dealer had to sell some of his watches at a loss, since that is his job can he write the losses off on his tax form (let's say in the USA)?

Originally Posted by peterpl

Sure you did. LOL

How many "hot" pieces you got on ya? Better flip them before your left holding the bag.

[tie219]

I got mine at MSRP so no worries here

[Yellowfury]

Originally Posted by locutus49

Hey, Peter, since you seem to be a straight shooter, if hypothetically a grey dealer had to sell some of his watches at a loss, since that is his job can he write the losses off on his tax form (let's say in the USA)?

Not peter but I am a licensed cpa in California. Any business that sells inventory at a loss can write off those losses. It’s called cost of goods sold. Of course this requires them to have even reported their business at all on their tax return.

If this is a “hobby” then that’s a whole different story...

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by locutus49

Hey, Peter, since you seem to be a straight shooter, if hypothetically a grey dealer had to sell some of his watches at a loss, since that is his job can he write the losses off on his tax form (let's say in the USA)?

Yep you sure can. Its just like any capital loss on a business. No different.

Grays are still trying to list and holdoff because they don't want a tsunami and a mad panic happening. They know there are tonnes of stock of these SS watches and if all the individual flippers + compounded by the grays all trying to sell all their hoarded stock well thats going to be very very bad. Then it will be a real nosedive in pricing. Grays can only last 3-6 months max without cashflow. It will become a big big problem if nothing is moving.

My suggestion is if you are after a watch now ignore those list prices. Just look at individual classifieds and look for the lowest prices ones from individual sellers with continual bumps. These guys are trying to flip but obviously trying to sell individually because grays are offering less than they are doing price drops for.

[MSchu]

Originally Posted by Fat_ninja

Wake me up when daytonas sell for reasonable prices :)

I see daytonas all the time in the cases here in vegas for msrp... just not steel ones.

[peterpl]

Originally Posted by locutus49

You are British. How do I know? Because you said tonne and not ton.

Close - Aussie.

We are British in a sense

[MSchu]

Ac3?

[exador]

Originally Posted by 904VT

The Chinese/HK watch market is about to burst if the bubble hasn’t already. US is now the number 1 Swiss watch market.

Not quite. But HK and USA swap the #1 spot approx every 10 years (last time USA was #1 was 2009).

[904VT]

Originally Posted by exador

Not quite. But HK and USA swap the #1 spot approx every 10 years (last time USA was #1 was 2009).

Actually....the US is now (at least month over month) and it’s a major sign of slowing discretionary purchases globally. Of course geopolitical issues are influencing as well skewing slightly. Though China and HK combined are still well above. It may take all of 2020 for it to show caught up on a YOY basis or perhaps it goes back the other way and HK recovers.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by Ghost410

God i can only hope all stainless models return to MSRP eventually. Drop market, drop!

You wish

[SpeedyTuomas]

Good. Rolex and this craze is so played out imo.