Current state of affairs from a prominent NY AD.

[mongrelnomoad]

Originally Posted by Gwai

Not my skirmish at all but I don't think you are being fair here. Mystro's post is much more differentiated than your response makes it appear.

Cheers
Marc

Perhaps, but minimising it as some 'media plot' because *in his location* it is not serious, and *among his circle* it does not seem a big deal is... a narrow take.

[schoolboy]

While I still have a job, and family and I are healthy, this covid crap has taught me to appreciate other things in life.

I asked to be put on a list for a watch I wanted a few times in the past.

I honestly think I fell for the hype.

After realizing how many people have lost lives and jobs and probably homes due to corona, I am very very extra grateful for what I have.

I don’t think I am ever going to beg an AD to take my money ever again.

[cascavel]

Originally Posted by Xenon

This will essentially be a repeat of 2008 and maybe worse so picture bankruptcies, foreclosures, zombie houses, people on unemployment insurance for 3-4 years, low GDP, and slow economic recovery.

The difference now is that the Gov'ts of the developed economies started spraying money around much sooner that they did in 2008, the unemployed in this recession are mostly from lower income jobs, and all the people getting the gov't handouts are already wealthy and are being given great gobs of cash which will require much creative thinking to spend. Maybe Rolex doesn't benefit as much, but PP and other high end manufacturers will.
Also different is that the watch makers had to interrupt their production, too, creating scarcity.

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by Mystro

Yea, between State College and Williamsport. My wife is a district PostMaster and obviously has not closed any Post Offices. Employees have been working overtime 7 days a week. Many carriers have reported not feeling the best with a few days of fever and flu like symptoms and recovered at home and are now back on the job. Many of these carriers did get tested later and was confirmed of having Covid and recovered. It seems to have moved though her post offices in February. Totally normal attendance now with very few sick leave since April. These carriers were/are at a high risk of exposure and probably why it moved through so fast and early. The internal position is it probably has done this across the country with USPS carriers as well as UPS & FedEx. Aka herd immunity is now a possibility.

Will give you a simple example with a parallel industry. When to switch to summer tires, and my BMW dealer gave me 25% discount at the door, without even telling him that I am looking for a new car. Police officially released that 40% less new cars have been registered in the first four months this year compared to last year.

Obviously SS Rolex, AP and Patek will be the least affected, but the entire watch market is melting, and they will melt as well. Less than the rest, but this bundle deals etc ...

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by cascavel

The difference now is that the Gov'ts of the developed economies started spraying money around much sooner that they did in 2008, the unemployed in this recession are mostly from lower income jobs, and all the people getting the gov't handouts are already wealthy and are being given great gobs of cash which will require much creative thinking to spend. Maybe Rolex doesn't benefit as much, but PP and other high end manufacturers will.
Also different is that the watch makers had to interrupt their production, too, creating scarcity.

This ppl with low wage jobs work for ppl with high paid jobs and when the entrepreneurs struggle to keep viable staff, how are they gonna continue buying PM Rolexes?

Waiters do not buy Rolexes, but Restaurant owners love to do, so if your restaurants are closed for 2 months, and you pay rent, and you pay half salary of your employees, when you open up - u save your business, or you go for another Platona?

[padi56]

Originally Posted by schoolboy

While I still have a job, and family and I are healthy, this covid crap has taught me to appreciate other things in life.

I asked to be put on a list for a watch I wanted a few times in the past.

I honestly think I fell for the hype.

After realizing how many people have lost lives and jobs and probably homes due to corona, I am very very extra grateful for what I have.

I don’t think I am ever going to beg an AD to take my money ever again.

Have to agree watches or when any manufacturer opens is far down my list of priorities at the moment, myself have been battling cancer for the last 3-4 years.So whats the most important thing for me on the subject of watches,is looking and seeing the time when I wake up in the morning.Now that fact proves I am still alive to face another day,as the most precious thing I have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value not even for watches.

[subdateII]

Personally, I have more questions than answers. Will there be the same level, less or more demand for Rolex watches? What about supply? Will Rolex sustain it's dealer network who is suffering big time or abandon it?

No one knows...

[rtalk]

I check online regularly looking for deals, and for SS Rolex - I have been surprised. The prices are still damn resilient. If a global pandemic with record unemployment hasn't taken a material hit to these watches, then honestly --- I really don't know what will.

[rtalk]

Originally Posted by Bosscheto

This ppl with low wage jobs work for ppl with high paid jobs and when the entrepreneurs struggle to keep viable staff, how are they gonna continue buying PM Rolexes?

Waiters do not buy Rolexes, but Restaurant owners love to do, so if your restaurants are closed for 2 months, and you pay rent, and you pay half salary of your employees, when you open up - u save your business, or you go for another Platona?

i think few and far restaurant owners buy platona's or Rolex in general - it is a tough business and many were scrapping by in the first place prior to covid.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by mongrelnomoad

Perhaps, but minimising it as some 'media plot' because *in his location* it is not serious, and *among his circle* it does not seem a big deal is... a narrow take.

I did not say it was THE perspective but A perspective that certainly is not being reported. I am sure there are thousands more communities like mine across the country. I have a unique inside look into the USPS first hand and I’ll add that there is 1000’s of mail carriers working overtime making the most money this year than every before. The overtime checks are enormous and well deserved. That’s one industry but a broad demographic of additional purchasing power over last year. What about the healthcare industry, trucking, supermarket, etc.. These people don’t work for free.
Building supply stores make a lot of money after hurricanes. There will always be a particular industry that profits in times of need. Capitalism is always self correcting.

[gtnator]

Banks, travel, leisure, retail, autos, manufacturing, oil,...all dismal prospects. Other than that everything is great! Lol, this thread surely is “an AD’s perspective”.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[kieselguhr]

Different people have different circumstances, perspectives, and outlooks. Arguing about this is pointless and merely leads to financial or (worse) political discussions which quite honestly has nothing to do with Rolex or horology.

[subtona]

Some concerns I see living in a big city.

Loss of jobs and closed businesses for extended periods are compounding Loss of tax revenues.

Business realizing they can do without office space (work from home model has received a huge leg up with the employees pitching in and giving it their best effort) will lead to further losses as commercial space is vacated and further losses of jobs as companies streamline out of necessity.

>25% of Restaurants are not expected to reopen. The restaurants that do reopen will be dealing with reluctance of customers to sit next to strangers as well as the fact that many people have been forced to learn how to cook and as a result found that they quite like home cooking.

Bars will suffer and many friends have shared that they have been having cocktails with friends over web based chat rooms, often from geographically remote places.

It looks to me like the compounding effects of the shut down are going to have a significant and protracted impact on the overall economic health.

All said this is certainly not a criticism of the choices, I don’t have an answer.
personally I do have elderly parents who I am very concerned for, subjectively their well being is my #1 priority.


As far as the watch market, prices will drop.

[Chester01]

Lol. I mean lol. What do you expect them to say. Ever walk into an AD, car dealership, etc, and they say man oh man you are the first guy that walked in here in days. I mean are most on here this gullible? Rolex is all about perception. Search chrono 24 and any gray dealer and there are hundreds and thousands of what ever you want out there. I guess it’s like the saying there is a sucker born every minute.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree watches or when any manufacturer opens is far down my list of priorities at the moment, myself have been battling cancer for the last 3-4 years.So whats the most important thing for me on the subject of watches,is looking and seeing the time when I wake up in the morning.Now that fact proves I am still alive to face another day,as the most precious thing I have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value not even for watches.

You keep up the good fight my friend. Everything else is trivial. May your watches and this forum be a happy escape.

[Bozack90]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree many today live on Rolex watch fantasy island instead of the real world of today.

I agree, even before this I didn't know many who prioritized getting an expensive watch, for many it was home projects, vacations, or new cars....now all of that has changed and they are redirecting any of their vacation money to either savings or home improvement projects, and that is if they are still employed.

For folks like myself who get to work remote and will be in that mode for the foreseeable future there is even question as to whether or not new cars are even worth it given the reduction in commuting.

As for me, I haven't worn a watch since I have started quarantine and haven't thought about getting any new ones...if anything once we are out of this I may look at a convertible so I can at least go drive around and do something

[THC]

Like all the Rolex choices out there, the entire make up of this global forum is a vast cross section of income, people, lifestyles, etc.. this is simply a hobby and life comes first .. Stay well and diligent everyone

[fsprow]

Rolex is still shut down in Switzerland. Resellers I know are looking for inventory and say the high end watch market is returning.

Re the pandemic, a Darwinian statement would be that:
- Businesses with high debt loads are toast.
- Businesses who have not properly figured out how to meet the needs of today's younger, computer savvy customers are toast.
- Folks without more than a few months savings are in trouble.
- Others will suffer a bit, find opportunities in the remains of the businesses that have failed and do well if they avoid the above pitfalls.

Not saying this is good, it's just the way the world works when met with adverse events.

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by subtona

Some concerns I see living in a big city.


>25% of Restaurants are not expected to reopen. The restaurants that do reopen will be dealing with reluctance of customers to sit next to strangers as well as the fact that many people have been forced to learn how to cook and as a result found that they quite like home cooking.

Bars will suffer and many friends have shared that they have been having cocktails with friends over web based chat rooms, often from geographically remote places.



As far as the watch market, prices will drop.

Again, it is just an impression, but for bars and restaurants maybe not so bad. I was walking in Lausanne today, first day with great weather in a week, Saturday, but you had massive queues for the restaurants. Yes, they have restricted capacities, but people were really motivated. Also Shisha bars, and all sorts of places with terraces were totally full. Talked to the local hairdresser - full for weeks, sneaked me after working hours.

Also, the youth - under 25 - they could not care less about measures, and in general I see no fear of COVID - whatever is opened, they go check it.

Now, these are not luxury items, I think - Luxury, travel, cars, property market will be touched badly, but bars and restaurants, they may bounce back.

[Bosscheto]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Rolex is still shut down in Switzerland.

Rolex is open, not at full capacity but open

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by Frank McKay

I spoke with an AD in NY yesterday who I have a solid relationship with for many years now. While the boutique(s) may be closed, the inquiries, calls and emails have increased. Those who were previously on the list or inquiring on the hot pieces are under the impression that due to the current economic conditions, the watches may be easier to source right now. AD stated that he doesn’t see anything changing in the near future in terms of wait times. He believes that it will only take longer to acquire sought after pieces. Rolex supply will take a while to ramp up with the closing of the facilities overseas.

One AD in one market is not indicative of anything except one AD in one Market making his guesstimate. The fact is that around the world more would be Rolex buyers before Corona have now had their finances impacted in unforeseen ways in a matter of months. For the unforeseen future, There certainly will be less demand all around for luxury goods especially Rolex watches. To think otherwise is living in a fools bubble.

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by AJMarcus

One AD in one market is not indicative of anything except one AD in one Market making his guesstimate. The fact is that around the world more would be Rolex buyers before Corona have now had their finances impacted in unforeseen ways in a matter of months. For the unforeseen future, There certainly will be less demand all around for luxury goods especially Rolex watches. To think otherwise is living in a fools bubble.

It's a funny bubble. I just passed the Chanel store here in Dallas and folks were waiting outside. Could not get a reservation at our favorite restaurant yesterday. Auto inventories at dealers in Texas are well down from a month ago. Auto plants are restarting.

In my view, this is just another dislocation which we have always overcome with imagination, tenacity and time.

[Navarino]

Originally Posted by Frank McKay

I spoke with an AD in NY yesterday who I have a solid relationship with for many years now. While the boutique(s) may be closed, the inquiries, calls and emails have increased. Those who were previously on the list or inquiring on the hot pieces are under the impression that due to the current economic conditions, the watches may be easier to source right now. AD stated that he doesn’t see anything changing in the near future in terms of wait times. He believes that it will only take longer to acquire sought after pieces. Rolex supply will take a while to ramp up with the closing of the facilities overseas.

Good chance we share the same AD. My sales guy and I chat on the phone every ~3-4 weeks. He's been saying the same exact thing throughout this whole quarantine.

Also, contrary to what some people might be thinking, they aren't just sitting on inventory while stores remain closed to the public. If they had hot pieces at the store, they have been selling those much like they would prior to the shutdown (calling up valued customers). I can understand how this has impacted their ability to sell slower-moving pieces though (watches that might otherwise be sold to walk-ins who cave into an impulse buy).

[AJMarcus]

Originally Posted by fsprow

It's a funny bubble. I just passed the Chanel store here in Dallas and folks were waiting outside. Could not get a reservation at our favorite restaurant yesterday. Auto inventories at dealers in Texas are well down from a month ago. Auto plants are restarting.

In my view, this is just another dislocation which we have always overcome with imagination, tenacity and time.

Lots of folks are blowing off quarantine steam from being stuck indoors. But lots are still self isolating too.

Resiliency and flexibility are key for business. But capital has been effected. It’s a completely shifted paradigm. Time will tell but there are changes coming to the luxury watch business for sure. .

[Watchdaytona]

I heard there are 40 million unemployed in the USA, one of the richer countries in the world. No vaccine on the horizon, probably a massive depression. The last thing most people need is a shiny new watch. I love watches but this virus is a problem and will be with us for years to come, as will the repercussions.

Email watchfinder and see what they offer you.

[Speedbird-1]

.

[Golf&Watches]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I am not, but certainly giving a snap shot of a popular perspective that isn’t being reported on. If the news isn’t negative, then it isn’t reported. Fear is being weaponized and exploited by the media.

36 million unemployed. I have friends earning high six/seven figures, their jobs are gone, their fixed costs are $40k+ per month, there are tens of thousands like this in NYC, London etc. This has the potential to be depression matching, almost everyone shall be affected (those prospering via taxes). A truly devastating event.

[goodolejr]

Right now, it is really difficult to get a read on what's going to happen. In 2008-2010, the recession was not accompanied by a shut-down of the Rolex factory. I believe whatever price drop we've seen, however slight compared to initial estimates (hopes), has been largely mitigated by the dry-up of new inventory due to the factory suspending operations. It will be interesting to see what happens when production ramps back up.

As some others have also mentioned, prices drops are not going to happen precipitously or dramatically like they do for the stock market or commodity futures (remember oil a couple weeks back). They'll erode at a faster pace, yes, but there isn't going to be a "Black [___]day" for Rolex purveyors.

[Cossak]

Originally Posted by padi56

Have to agree watches or when any manufacturer opens is far down my list of priorities at the moment, myself have been battling cancer for the last 3-4 years.So whats the most important thing for me on the subject of watches,is looking and seeing the time when I wake up in the morning.Now that fact proves I am still alive to face another day,as the most precious thing I have is life, yet it has absolutely no trade-in value not even for watches.

Well said, hope you get well soon Peter I enjoy your posts!

[DJ39]

Originally Posted by Mystro

I initially thought this Covid crap may change the market but after thinking about it and watching what and who still have a healthy income, I see very little change in the market. Many incomes have actually increased a lot for various reasons. This may be a record year for my wife and myself as certain professions and skills are in extreme demand. Factor in no one is going on vacations or spending money going out so it makes the income grow even more. It’s a buyers market now with luxury goods like cars and real estate and anyone with a sold income is sniffing out the deals and making a move. Luxury watches are small ticket items in comparison and there is still plenty of people with even more disposable income that will keep the market stable.

We cannot get caught the trap of extrapolating our personal situation to the greater whole.

There are million of people who are now struggling to put food on the table.

Then there are people who have good stable jobs for large multinationals, that would have spent 20k on a vacation and another 20k in eating out, just to make up a number and now are using a part of that money to buy luxury items.

I think the economic contraction will lower demand as whole no matter what the story the greys are spinning to keep the prices high.