Impact of Covid on AP

[dauster]

So the boutique in Vegas keeps telling me there is noway I can get any SS Royal Oak (incl Chrono) because production is 30% less and demand is the same? Is that true? Granted my relationship is basically that I bought one watch 6 months ago and I was "promised" a 15500 black dial within a year but now it is looking not that great.

The same goes for car dealerships - they are claiming production stood still and demand is high blahblha - I find that hard to believe given the high unemployment numbers etc

[Bearxj86]

We've seen a rebound since the March lows in terms of grey pricing (initially dealers destocking but now there is a general lack of new pieces). APs have held pretty well to be honest. I do hear there is a lack of merchandise due to the shutdowns but I think we'll see the effect of it in 2-3 months on the demand side as the shipments start flowing back in.

I would take what they are saying with a grain of salt. Pretty sure they sold out of what they have but only the next 3-6 months will tell.

[macrowatch]

Pretty sure they are doing just fine. Demand for such limited production is still pretty robust given the strong brand management.

Pretty sure if you say any of the steel RO/ROC is available and will be snapped up immediately in Asia (which is coming out of lock downs already), and if you sent all production to Asia re-routing from US and Europe, will still be completely absorbed with a wait list.

[steeevvvooo]

Don't AP boutiques tend to allocate their expected supply at the start of each year? If that is the case then anything they are telling you mid year is just fluff

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[RolexZen]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

Don't AP boutiques tend to allocate their expected supply at the start of each year? If that is the case then anything they are telling you mid year is just fluff

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Not sure I follow your point. If a boutique was allocated, say 10 of X for 2020 back in January, you don’t think they can say now that global production is down 30% and we don’t think will have one for you this year?

[dauster]

Originally Posted by RolexZen

Not sure I follow your point. If a boutique was allocated, say 10 of X for 2020 back in January, you don’t think they can say now that global production is down 30% and we don’t think will have one for you this year?

I would think so too but I am not 100% certain on their production? I have heard that AP does get the allocation at the beginning of the year but don't they keep watches coming in throughout the year? I am assuming they don't just get one shipment at the beginning but just approx. allocation of pieces, right?

[Teddy KGB]

Originally Posted by dauster

So the boutique in Vegas keeps telling me there is noway I can get any SS Royal Oak (incl Chrono) because production is 30% less and demand is the same? Is that true? Granted my relationship is basically that I bought one watch 6 months ago and I was "promised" a 15500 black dial within a year but now it is looking not that great.

The same goes for car dealerships - they are claiming production stood still and demand is high blahblha - I find that hard to believe given the high unemployment numbers etc

Have you tried submitting an inquiry on the main AP page? I threw what I thought was a "hail mary" by submitting a specific request for a SSRO self winding piece and got a response from a boutique within a couple days. We set up a call, and talked through the fact that although it was a high in-demand piece, they had several regulars back out of waitlists and/or deposits due to the uncertainty around COVID, they literally had one sitting in their safe... which I had in hand a couple days later.

Worth a shot!

[Boxer321]

Originally Posted by dauster

So the boutique in Vegas keeps telling me there is noway I can get any SS Royal Oak (incl Chrono) because production is 30% less and demand is the same? Is that true? Granted my relationship is basically that I bought one watch 6 months ago and I was "promised" a 15500 black dial within a year but now it is looking not that great.

The same goes for car dealerships - they are claiming production stood still and demand is high blahblha - I find that hard to believe given the high unemployment numbers etc

can't really comment on the status of AP but i did just go buy a car. Looking around, there were a lot of deals/incentives. but the dealers weren't giving outrageous discounts likely due to that they aren't going to hit quotas this year so no rebates from manufacturers. I think there is actually a decent demand now for new cars just because a lot of people are shopping around now thinking they are going to get amazing deals.

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by RolexZen

Not sure I follow your point. If a boutique was allocated, say 10 of X for 2020 back in January, you don’t think they can say now that global production is down 30% and we don’t think will have one for you this year?

I haven't bought from AP personally as mine was bought FROM Chase via this site but going from people's reports I have read on here I understood that the hot models are effectively allocated to customers in Jan. So people are told "we have one for you this year, we will call you when it's in...".

The OP was told 6 months ago he would have one within a year, I.e. Early in 2020 it sounds like he was "allocated" one. The dates didn't click in my mind... I blame lockdown! I guess if he doesn't get one this year he should be at the front of the 2021 queue so maybe only a few months delayed. Hopefully for the OP anyway.

Please ignore me and carry on :)

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[Crashblue]

I was offered a hard to get RO in summer 2018 by AP. They send me a written offer I had to sign and send back. Then I waited till winter 2018 2019. A month after the estimated delivery date I was told I had to wait till September 2019 they were out of stock but I would be the first one who would get a watch from the batch produced after the summer break.

They didn’t deliver and then told me by email in November 2019 they changed their distribution strategy and then stopped reacting to my mails. I am currently going back and forth between writing a letter to the ceo or involve a lawyer.

I am or better was an AP customer for nearly 15 years when ROs were sold with 25% discount, now they are in and I am very disappointed about my former favourite brand. I am even thinking about selling all my APs.

[chiscott_29]

I have been told the same thing - "Production down 30% for 2020, attributed to the shut down".

I don't think anybody has any information that is reliable enough to question AP's production numbers. I think it's perfectly understandable why they will be producing less watches in 2020. How much less? Who knows.

What might be questionable is AD's/Boutiques using this line to explain why your allocation hasn't come through or why there will be additional wait. I'm guessing it is a convenient reason to be able to give to customers that are not VIPs, based partially in reality and partially in how bad they want to sell YOU the watch.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

I haven't bought from AP personally as mine was bought FROM Chase via this site but going from people's reports I have read on here I understood that the hot models are effectively allocated to customers in Jan. So people are told "we have one for you this year, we will call you when it's in...".

The OP was told 6 months ago he would have one within a year, I.e. Early in 2020 it sounds like he was "allocated" one. The dates didn't click in my mind... I blame lockdown! I guess if he doesn't get one this year he should be at the front of the 2021 queue so maybe only a few months delayed. Hopefully for the OP anyway.

Please ignore me and carry on :)

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I wish this statement came directly from AP :) let's hope I am on the list they are being very wishy washy about it.

[dauster]

Originally Posted by chiscott_29

I have been told the same thing - "Production down 30% for 2020, attributed to the shut down".

I don't think anybody has any information that is reliable enough to question AP's production numbers. I think it's perfectly understandable why they will be producing less watches in 2020. How much less? Who knows.

What might be questionable is AD's/Boutiques using this line to explain why your allocation hasn't come through or why there will be additional wait. I'm guessing it is a convenient reason to be able to give to customers that are not VIPs, based partially in reality and partially in how bad they want to sell YOU the watch.

makes sense... this is what I a guessing - the truth is somewhere in between.

[Benzsiam]

I think if Boutique/ADs stop selling to grey dealers, it will have enough for their clients.

All the hot items that we are looking for, they are in the grey market at the premium price.

[chiscott_29]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

I think if Boutique/ADs stop selling to grey dealers, it will have enough for their clients.

All the hot items that we are looking for, they are in the grey market at the premium price.

I don't know how truly prevalent this is, but it absolutely is happening and I also find it discouraging (even though I openly support secondary dealers).

I can't imagine the truly hot pieces are being flipped by "good customers" - unless they go out of their way to get their buyer to agree to not register the watch.

Given how sensitive AP seems to be on who gets these watches, I think they'd immediately reprimand somebody if one of these super hot models are flipped.

But who knows. I'm sure if the onion truly got peeled on this, few if any would like what they see or smell.

[tcheeco]

Covid or not, but it seems like prices will increase by the end of this month

[eiesh]

Originally Posted by tcheeco

Covid or not, but it seems like prices will increase by the end of this month

I hope not on the steel models, especially the 15407ST


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[Benzsiam]

Originally Posted by tcheeco

Covid or not, but it seems like prices will increase by the end of this month

Really?

I thought the price just increased early this year.

[eiesh]

Originally Posted by Benzsiam

Really?

I thought the price just increased early this year.

RM did something similar price increase in January and another price increase recently.....


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[DoctorA]

It’s a supply and demand equation!
With less than 40,000 units produced annually, it don’t foresee COVID making a dent in the AP pricing on the long run. Maybe a blip as a market reaction but it soon settled down!

[Collector2019]

Originally Posted by tcheeco

Covid or not, but it seems like prices will increase by the end of this month

That’ll be bad I hope not


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[Caramba]

The AP CEO announced last year that the production capacity was going to be increased beyond 40.000 pieces with the introduction of the code 11:59 and the new movement. I suspect that the covid-19 is being used as a convenient excuse for lower production this year (if that's the case) rather than admitting that the code 11:59 is a fiasco so far.

I would imagine that the CEO is under a lot of pressure these days...

[RolexZen]

Originally Posted by Caramba

The AP CEO announced last year that the production capacity was going to be increased beyond 40.000 pieces with the introduction of the code 11:59 and the new movement. I suspect that the covid-19 is being used as a convenient excuse for lower production this year (if that's the case) rather than admitting that the code 11:59 is a fiasco so far.

I would imagine that the CEO is under a lot of pressure these days...

Production was reduced at many/most/all? Swiss watch manufacturers due to Covid-19, but AP is just using it as a convenient excuse because Code 11:59... okaaaay...

[benlee]

Covid mainly cause economic hardship to the lower income bracket. Apparently, no effect on desirable brands, ie AP/PP/Rolex so far. I have mixed feelings about this. On the plus side, it means my "investment" in my watch collection are protected, at least for now. On the minus, it's almost nigh impossible to get another new hot piece.

Regardless, I am quite serene about this. Watches aren't my biggest concern nowadays. These are basically superfluous expenditure.

[Caramba]

Originally Posted by RolexZen

Production was reduced at many/most/all? Swiss watch manufacturers due to Covid-19, but AP is just using it as a convenient excuse because Code 11:59... okaaaay...

I don't think you have to spend many years in the corporate world to see that senior management sometimes exaggerates the effects of an external crisis, such as COVID-19, to hide their own failures.

Don't ruin a good story by telling the truth.

[Doctock]

Instead of the buy buy buy aspect to the shut down - there's another effect - service.
Or lack thereof.

I've got a vintage piece sent in pre-COVID, went to AP in Switzerland in January. I still have not heard even an estimate. I have reached out to AP NA - they have assured me they will "find out something".

Waiting...

[cesco10]

Originally Posted by tcheeco

Covid or not, but it seems like prices will increase by the end of this month

Yes it's official. Prices will increase of 6% in July.

[eiesh]

Originally Posted by cesco10

Yes it's official. Prices will increase of 6% in July.

On all models or steel pieces only ?


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[tcheeco]

Originally Posted by eiesh

I hope not on the steel models, especially the 15407ST


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Originally Posted by Benzsiam

Really?

I thought the price just increased early this year.

Originally Posted by Collector2019

That’ll be bad I hope not


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That’s what they told me in boutique unfortunately

Originally Posted by cesco10

Yes it's official. Prices will increase of 6% in July.

What he/she said

[rockdrock]

For what’s it worth, similar experience. On a two year waitlist, had great conversations prior to COVID19 and now the AP contacts don’t return emails or calls. It is really weird especially since Switzerland is mostly open again - retail and manufacturing.


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