Is demand real?

[garyk]

Originally Posted by dmash

To be honest, the SkyD really does seem like it’s produced in fairly small numbers. I’ve never even seen one in the wild on somebody’s wrist in my entire life.

The ‘shortage’ people speak of on GMT and Subs though is absurd.

Agreed about the Sky D but I swear to you I was unable to come up with a TT Bluesy from an AD in June. I spoke to over a dozen ADs and ended up getting one on C24...maybe I picked the wrong time but I wanted the 2019 before they were discontinued...

[Bigblu10]

Originally Posted by dmash

And how many people in that billions can actually afford a Rolex? Now how many remaining actually have a desire to own what many would claim to be a completely outdated, useless tool that a phone gives for free?

I’m as big of a watch nerd as any, but people grossly over estimate how ‘large’ the luxury watch market buying group really is.

Absolutely

[mrmclovin]

can't seem to justify the demand being that real when a few days after release most updated subs end up with a grey.. I have seen 2 Kermit C's be auctioned off in the same week by the same dealer but an AD will laugh at you for asking.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by garyk

Agreed about the Sky D but I swear to you I was unable to come up with a TT Bluesy from an AD in June. I spoke to over a dozen ADs and ended up getting one on C24...maybe I picked the wrong time but I wanted the 2019 before they were discontinued...

I think that can be chalked up to Rolex stopping supply as they were planning on the new release. Would make total sense

[Fleetlord]

Originally Posted by garyk

Isn’t that the truth! I remember being in Los Angeles when everyone wanted a Panerai. The Beverly Hills store never had more than 5 or 6 watches in the entire store. I think they were trying to emulate Rolex. Didn’t work out. I love my Panerai but I don’t think they are very hot anymore.

Panerai made a lot of mistakes.

Principal among them was RAISING prices AND producing MORE watches.

So, put more watches on the market at higher costs = Toxic

Resale values dropped, consumers lost interest as there were too many to choose from causing the allure to fade. Then dealers were stuck with unsold watches and they got dumped on the the grey market at nasty discounts just to get rid of them, which in turn makes them look even more undesirable as the HIGH retail compares with the LOW grey market offering prices and the brand looks like total #%^^.

Consumers HATE that, so they don't buy them any more.

Rolex demand is so high that I think they might end up putting some brands out of business.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Panerai made a lot of mistakes.

Principal among them was RAISING prices AND producing MORE watches.

So, put more watches on the market at higher costs = Toxic

Resale values dropped, consumers lost interest as there were too many to choose from causing the allure to fade. Then dealers were stuck with unsold watches and they got dumped on the the grey market at nasty discounts just to get rid of them, which in turn makes them look even more undesirable as the HIGH retail compares with the LOW grey market offering prices and the brand looks like total #%^^.

Consumers HATE that, so they don't buy them any more.

Rolex demand is so high that I think they might end up putting some brands out of business.

That and they did the same thing Omega does (which for the life of me I don’t understand) by putting out multiple ‘limited edition’ models. It’s does nothing but cheapen a brand, don’t get it.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Panerai made a lot of mistakes.

Principal among them was RAISING prices AND producing MORE watches.

So, put more watches on the market at higher costs = Toxic

Resale values dropped, consumers lost interest as there were too many to choose from causing the allure to fade. Then dealers were stuck with unsold watches and they got dumped on the the grey market at nasty discounts just to get rid of them, which in turn makes them look even more undesirable as the HIGH retail compares with the LOW grey market offering prices and the brand looks like total #%^^.

Consumers HATE that, so they don't buy them any more.

Rolex demand is so high that I think they might end up putting some brands out of business.

And more recently Panerai has been posting pictures of fake watches on their official Instagram page.

Very poorly managed. The mistakes keep happening.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by dmash

Peep eBay user IDs and new business name creations on any medium which allows selling. In the past 2-3 years I’ve seen the amount of ‘watch’ or ‘time’ business names increase probably 10 fold. It’s insane lol. Everybody thinks they’re a professional re-seller right now, and it’s working well, can’t knock it. When tides turn and you’re holding stock depreciating monthly though, they’ll unfortunately go under quickly if not properly hedged.

It would be very interesting to see what the market looked like if the professional and amateur flippers / traders were removed from the equation.

I don't doubt for one minute that the waitlists are made up of a large proportion of flippers. Unfortunately, that is still "demand" as, without another buyer willing to pay a premium, they wouldn't be doing it.

[Kevin of Larchmont]

Originally Posted by legacy404

The demand is also fueled by price speculation and grey brokers posing as clients. Not 100% 'real' demand...

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Demand is demand, it doesn’t matter who’s doing the demanding.

[Andad]

Originally Posted by donas

I don't think anything can be based off of a few "incoming posts". TRF represents a small sample of those who purchase or want to purchase a Rolex. Even if the supply / demand was to be determined from TRF, we'd need to see a post from everyone who has tried to get the same watch. If I was to guess, it would be hundreds or thousands of requests per actual acquisition.

I would venture to say that if you attempted to purchase a more sought after model, you would not be met with success in a timely manner. There is no doubt there is a much higher demand than there is supply. Even if the blame game for the greys was true, there would be substantially more listed than the one or two new models on the big name dealer sights.

I called around to several ADs and had some good conversations with a few. The manager of one location explained what a predicament it is to gain new customers by allotting pieces to them vs keeping valued customers by the same means. This may very well be a new strategy by many ADs, which was not a concern in the past.

Just my observations, like everyone else, just trying to make sense of the madness

This may have been true 10 years ago but with >250000 interested enough to sign up as members of TRF I would say we represent more than a small sample of those who purchase or want to purchase a Rolex?

[garyk]

Originally Posted by dmash

I think that can be chalked up to Rolex stopping supply as they were planning on the new release. Would make total sense

That does make sense. Had me scratching my head which is why I went grey for the first time ever.

[garyk]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

Panerai made a lot of mistakes.

Principal among them was RAISING prices AND producing MORE watches.

So, put more watches on the market at higher costs = Toxic

Resale values dropped, consumers lost interest as there were too many to choose from causing the allure to fade. Then dealers were stuck with unsold watches and they got dumped on the the grey market at nasty discounts just to get rid of them, which in turn makes them look even more undesirable as the HIGH retail compares with the LOW grey market offering prices and the brand looks like total #%^^.

Consumers HATE that, so they don't buy them any more.

Rolex demand is so high that I think they might end up putting some brands out of business.

Makes sense!

[zion_rasta]

I also got the call.

To extend my vehicle warranty..

[Pam673]

Panerai's ex-CEO, Mr Bonati actually did Pam lovers a favour by driving flippers and greys out during the Panerai frenzy. He did that through consecutive injections of numerous Special/Limited Edition watches onto the market.

The used value of super hot Pam 10 years ago, i.e. 127, 217, 232, 249, Pre-V PVDs...were all driven down after the market was flooded with nearly carbon copies of past released SE/LE while housing an all new inhouse movement.

Big players (greys, collectors, flippers) saw their stocks dipped big time and dumped them all as fast as they could which collectively drove down the price even further. A lot of momentum buyers saw that the brand had lost lust allure in the used market and lost interest.

Now Pam lovers can walk into an AD on a level playing field without any bullshit game tactics.

[holdingon]

if you want a nice watch or celebrate a moment, you buy a rolex. end of story...this is not just USA/Western Europe now China too. So yeah, there is real demand.

[Oystersteel92]

Originally Posted by Pam673

Panerai's ex-CEO, Mr Bonati actually did Pam lovers a favour by driving flippers and greys out during the Panerai frenzy. He did that through consecutive injections of numerous Special/Limited Edition watches onto the market.

The used value of super hot Pam 10 years ago, i.e. 127, 217, 232, 249, Pre-V PVDs...were all driven down after the market was flooded with nearly carbon copies of past released SE/LE while housing an all new inhouse movement.

Big players (greys, collectors, flippers) saw their stocks dipped big time and dumped them all as fast as they could which collectively drove down the price even further. A lot of momentum buyers saw that the brand had lost lust allure in the used market and lost interest.

Now Pam lovers can walk into an AD on a level playing field without any bullshit game tactics.

I for one can't believe Pam lovers exist. Such ugly watches. I never, ever saw the appeal.

[donas]

Originally Posted by Andad

This may have been true 10 years ago but with >250000 interested enough to sign up as members of TRF I would say we represent more than a small sample of those who purchase or want to purchase a Rolex?

No way to know for sure, but it is comical to me to think the members of one web sight makes up a majority of anything. If Rolex makes millions of watches a year and this barely scratches the surface of the demand, I'd say there are a lot of people interested. Out of the 250,000 of those signed up for TRF, there is only a fraction of that number that are active and even looking at this sight now, people come and go. TRF is but a small hobby group....well, now it seems to be an investment sight, but you know what I mean.

[Posh Gentleman]

Originally Posted by holdingon

Demand is real. One major difference vs 10-20 yrs ago is IWC/Pam/Breitling/Omega(somewhat better) are all in the gutter one way or another. They really have no real competition until until you reach 15k+ USD zip code.

I think this is it.

Just several years ago, I've seen many into the watch hobby collecting the likes of JLC, Panerai, Omega, or even Hublot / UN / IWC ..

Today, most serious watch guys I know are only into Rolex, AP, PP, and select other specialist brands with low production.

Many people are just not interested in a JLC, even with a 30% discount off MSRP in secondary. With the smartwatch / smartphone being so prevalent, wearing a watch is no longer about meeting a functional need. It is all about acquiring a jewelry that appeals to your taste, or getting something "unique" or "hard to get" or "popular on Instagram".


It is very much of Rolex / AP / PP or bust situation nowadays, for many watch guys. Myself included.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Lol are you serious. Gray is siphoning off supply. If not for the gray market the AD’s would have hundreds of thousands of SS models available and instead the gray has snapped them up, and unlike the AD can’t overcharge. Listen, I have been in the Rolex game since the 80’s and have always purchased my Rolex at AD’s and can recall walking in and buying what I wanted and seeing 3/4 gmt or subs. As gray market increased the amount of SS watches went down. It’s not rocket science here people


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How are greys siphoning off supply?

Supply is set by the Rolex factory. There is only so many SS GMTs to go around, more people want them than is produced. Therefore, the market sets the price, not the grey dealers who are buying of flippers.

Since the 80s, the middle classes in Europe, North America and especially Asia have ballooned. Many, many more people want and can afford a Rolex.

And demand can’t just be dealers buying of dealers, it doesn’t fake long for that perpetual motion machine to run out of motion.

This is exactly how Rolex want things - exclusive, restricted access product with a lot of FOMO keeling resale values high.

And truth be told - the customers that Rolex want, they probably prefer it this way too.


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[RyanJ]

The demand is real. However, you can read it in this very thread. The demand isn't for the watches themselves really but simply about buying specific watches from specific brands which hold value, appreciate, and are hard to get.

Watches are all $$$$ now. I am not condemning the behavior. It is simply the way things are now. It may not be everyone but it is the vast majority.

[Nairn1980]

Originally Posted by BillA

I have noticed lately many “Incoming” threads from members who said they received a call from an AD and they had never done business with before. No purchase history and picking up what we like to call, hard to get pieces.

So that leads me to believe that demand may not be as great as we think and that these prices on the resale market may not be realistic. (Grey market resellers). Of course the SS Daytona and the likes will be hard to get but other pieces may be attainable.

I understand this is not provable with hard facts, but just the same, noticing this going on.

Of course, it’s real

[00Seven]

Seems to be based on my experience. Every dealer I’ve called has basically said that they’re only selling high demand Rolex watches to existing customers with a purchasing history. I have no desire to spend tens of thousands on jewelry I don’t want / need so I can get a SS Rolex. I have plenty already.

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Posh Gentleman

I think this is it.

Just several years ago, I've seen many into the watch hobby collecting the likes of JLC, Panerai, Omega, or even Hublot / UN / IWC ..

Today, most serious watch guys I know are only into Rolex, AP, PP, and select other specialist brands with low production.

Many people are just not interested in a JLC, even with a 30% discount off MSRP in secondary. With the smartwatch / smartphone being so prevalent, wearing a watch is no longer about meeting a functional need. It is all about acquiring a jewelry that appeals to your taste, or getting something "unique" or "hard to get" or "popular on Instagram".


It is very much of Rolex / AP / PP or bust situation nowadays, for many watch guys. Myself included.

For flippers, you mean it’s rolex/ap/pp or bust. For us watch enthusiasts there’s other brands that make superior watches for the price point.

But yes, for flippers and hype beasts you’re only able to acquire a Rolex/AP/PP at msrp and flip it for a profit.

That’s not why a lot of us are in the game.

[zewill]

Originally Posted by fsprow

Speculation without knowledge is certainly fun.

Speculation with knowledge... Isn't speculation

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by UK_

How are greys siphoning off supply?

Supply is set by the Rolex factory. There is only so many SS GMTs to go around, more people want them than is produced. Therefore, the market sets the price, not the grey dealers who are buying of flippers.

Since the 80s, the middle classes in Europe, North America and especially Asia have ballooned. Many, many more people want and can afford a Rolex.

And demand can’t just be dealers buying of dealers, it doesn’t fake long for that perpetual motion machine to run out of motion.

This is exactly how Rolex want things - exclusive, restricted access product with a lot of FOMO keeling resale values high.

And truth be told - the customers that Rolex want, they probably prefer it this way too.


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So here is how it works. Rolex produces about 900,000 units per year. That goes to the AD’s. The gray market swoops in and buys in bulk and often the less desirable pieces that may take months to use. The gray market then adds 50-90% of the MSRP and sells them at a premium putting the massive amount of watches in the hands of the fewer gray dealers and forcing folks who want them to pay up. The regular joe that wants to celebrate a milestone walks into the AD and are told with much hand wringing sorry sir, these are very rare and we get precious few a year....however of you want to buy some of this other jewelry we can see what can be done. I mean lmao. It’s like if people here can’t see they are being had something is wrong. Then the same average Joe can look on chrono 24 or any gray dealer and find that there are plenty, they just have to pay more.

Look, it’s simply math here and a simple formula. The supply is pinched because there is now an extra middle man. Rolex-AD-consumer. This is how it was when I started in Rolex. I walked in, plunked down msrp.

Now, Rolex-AD-gray market (see follow me here because the gray market takes from the AD jacks up price)-consumer.

As for demand, I don’t think so. Middle class is not the ones buying up Rolex here and I’m not using the middle class definition that people that make 6 figures like to put themselves in-they are not middle class. Statistically, there are less people that can buy Rolex than ever before as wealth is concentrated in the top 90percent of earners (not political here folks just facts see piketty et al.) that top percent may be buying more watches yes, but those folks who in the 70’s through 90’s that may have been able to buy have been pushed down and can no longer afford them. I mean there are stories of military folks buying these on base-that’s not going to happen now. I do agree Rolex benefits as it creates the illusion of exclusivity where in actuality they are highly common.


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[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by Chester01

So here is how it works. Rolex produces about 900,000 units per year. That goes to the AD’s. The gray market swoops in and buys in bulk and often the less desirable pieces that may take months to use. The gray market then adds 50-90% of the MSRP and sells them at a premium putting the massive amount of watches in the hands of the fewer gray dealers and forcing folks who want them to pay up. The regular joe that wants to celebrate a milestone walks into the AD and are told with much hand wringing sorry sir, these are very rare and we get precious few a year....however of you want to buy some of this other jewelry we can see what can be done. I mean lmao. It’s like if people here can’t see they are being had something is wrong. Then the same average Joe can look on chrono 24 or any gray dealer and find that there are plenty, they just have to pay more.

Look, it’s simply math here and a simple formula. The supply is pinched because there is now an extra middle man. Rolex-AD-consumer. This is how it was when I started in Rolex. I walked in, plunked down msrp.

Now, Rolex-AD-gray market (see follow me here because the gray market takes from the AD jacks up price)-consumer.

As for demand, I don’t think so. Middle class is not the ones buying up Rolex here and I’m not using the middle class definition that people that make 6 figures like to put themselves in-they are not middle class. Statistically, there are less people that can buy Rolex than ever before as wealth is concentrated in the top 90percent of earners (not political here folks just facts see piketty et al.) that top percent may be buying more watches yes, but those folks who in the 70’s through 90’s that may have been able to buy have been pushed down and can no longer afford them. I mean there are stories of military folks buying these on base-that’s not going to happen now. I do agree Rolex benefits as it creates the illusion of exclusivity where in actuality they are highly common.


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Well said. I couldn’t have said this any better, you hit the nail on the head

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by UK_

How are greys siphoning off supply?

Supply is set by the Rolex factory. There is only so many SS GMTs to go around, more people want them than is produced. Therefore, the market sets the price, not the grey dealers who are buying of flippers.

You're right, there are only so many GMTs to go round - but as of right now there are 1,316 new / unworn GMTs sat on Chrono24.

Would it be unreasonable to assume that had these not been snapped up by greys / flippers they might have been sold by the ADs directly to the end user / wearer?

Fwiw, 20,000 of the 70,000 Rolex pieces on Chrono24 are new / unworn.

[johnjm]

Originally Posted by Chester01

So here is how it works. Rolex produces about 900,000 units per year. That goes to the AD’s. The gray market swoops in and buys in bulk and often the less desirable pieces that may take months to use. The gray market then adds 50-90% of the MSRP and sells them at a premium putting the massive amount of watches in the hands of the fewer gray dealers and forcing folks who want them to pay up. The regular joe that wants to celebrate a milestone walks into the AD and are told with much hand wringing sorry sir, these are very rare and we get precious few a year....however of you want to buy some of this other jewelry we can see what can be done. I mean lmao. It’s like if people here can’t see they are being had something is wrong. Then the same average Joe can look on chrono 24 or any gray dealer and find that there are plenty, they just have to pay more.

Look, it’s simply math here and a simple formula. The supply is pinched because there is now an extra middle man. Rolex-AD-consumer. This is how it was when I started in Rolex. I walked in, plunked down msrp.

Now, Rolex-AD-gray market (see follow me here because the gray market takes from the AD jacks up price)-consumer.

As for demand, I don’t think so. Middle class is not the ones buying up Rolex here and I’m not using the middle class definition that people that make 6 figures like to put themselves in-they are not middle class. Statistically, there are less people that can buy Rolex than ever before as wealth is concentrated in the top 90percent of earners (not political here folks just facts see piketty et al.) that top percent may be buying more watches yes, but those folks who in the 70’s through 90’s that may have been able to buy have been pushed down and can no longer afford them. I mean there are stories of military folks buying these on base-that’s not going to happen now. I do agree Rolex benefits as it creates the illusion of exclusivity where in actuality they are highly common.


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Why do people still believe that the greys swoop in?

Accept the fact that you are a small fish in a big pond. And there are three times as many fisherman.


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[UK_]

Originally Posted by johnjm

Why do people still believe that the greys swoop in?

Accept the fact that you are a small fish in a big pond. And there are three times as many fisherman.


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Exactly this.

People seem to not like the fact that there is now massive demand for these watches, real demand from the very large number of people who want them and have the money (regardless of what has been posted above, many multiples of people can afford them compared to the 80s, how many more are now sold in Asia?).

1 million may be produced, but it’s relative, demand outstrips that supply. Someone’s perception of ‘rare’ has nothing to do with it - it’s all about demand and supply.

Just because many are for sale does not mean there is enough supply to meet demand, otherwise prices would drop. And those numbers form Chrono are useless anyway, how many are actually watches?

Like most people I don’t know, but I don’t think greys are buying many multiples of desired SS models form ADs. What I think is happening is those who do buy, are tempted by the quick £2k they can make and flip it to a grey dealer.

There is no grand central grey dealer coordinating a world wide conspiracy to fix prices. They sell them for as much as they can get.

SS is a bit of a bubble clearly. For the ‘Everyman’ who wants to buy a Rolex, they can get a DJ, OP etc any time they want.

But I suspect Rolex is more interested in the higher end of the market, not the one off buyers.


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[Devildog]

Originally Posted by Chester01

So here is how it works. Rolex produces about 900,000 units per year. That goes to the AD’s. The gray market swoops in and buys in bulk and often the less desirable pieces that may take months to use. The gray market then adds 50-90% of the MSRP and sells them at a premium putting the massive amount of watches in the hands of the fewer gray dealers and forcing folks who want them to pay up. The regular joe that wants to celebrate a milestone walks into the AD and are told with much hand wringing sorry sir, these are very rare and we get precious few a year....however of you want to buy some of this other jewelry we can see what can be done. I mean lmao. It’s like if people here can’t see they are being had something is wrong. Then the same average Joe can look on chrono 24 or any gray dealer and find that there are plenty, they just have to pay more.

Look, it’s simply math here and a simple formula. The supply is pinched because there is now an extra middle man. Rolex-AD-consumer. This is how it was when I started in Rolex. I walked in, plunked down msrp.

Now, Rolex-AD-gray market (see follow me here because the gray market takes from the AD jacks up price)-consumer.

As for demand, I don’t think so. Middle class is not the ones buying up Rolex here and I’m not using the middle class definition that people that make 6 figures like to put themselves in-they are not middle class. Statistically, there are less people that can buy Rolex than ever before as wealth is concentrated in the top 90percent of earners (not political here folks just facts see piketty et al.) that top percent may be buying more watches yes, but those folks who in the 70’s through 90’s that may have been able to buy have been pushed down and can no longer afford them. I mean there are stories of military folks buying these on base-that’s not going to happen now. I do agree Rolex benefits as it creates the illusion of exclusivity where in actuality they are highly common.


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I think where you're going wrong here is that you are making the (flawed) assumption that what happens in the USA happens across the globe as far as AD's selling direct to the resellers is concerned.

You're asserting that the greys create the supply pinch. But its a bit chicken and egg. Which came first?

An alternate view is that the greys are only acquiring the numbers of watches they are because of the increased demand and hence the ability to enhanced profits. The grey market model in the US has undoubtedly changed significantly now that demand from ADs exceeds supply and ADs don't need to offload slow selling stock.

I've been into Rolex watches since the 80's too. Up until a few years ago you'd hardly see another sports Rolex in the wild. Now they are to be seen everywhere, worn buy a significantly different demographic.

Popularity and hence demand has never been higher. Ever.

Y(US)MMV. That does not mean the same necessarily applies globally