Oil vs electric....an interesting article

[Blansky]

Please don't get political, but this could be an interesting preview of post a Covid world.

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2...ign=pockethits

[MILGAUSS88]

I think the author wrote the obit for oil a little to early.
I would be willing to bet there will be a boom in oil use after the vaccine is distributed.

[Laszlo]

Do you guys remember peak oil. The frenzy and fear, the insane speculation. Wasn’t that about 10-years ago?

[Paul7]

The only oil shortage will be man made.

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Laszlo

Do you guys remember peak oil. The frenzy and fear, the insane speculation. Wasn’t that about 10-years ago?

Yep I wrote a paper on it in undergrad for some bs class. I think it was around 2007 or thereabouts.

[brandrea]

We’ve got about 170 billion barrels to sell you if we could get some pipe laid

Sorry, that wasn’t meant to be political, just stating the obvious

[bondtoys]

I have 2 EVs and absolutely love them - particularly the Mini SE!

Thinking about selling the Porsche....

[tudorbaja27]

Originally Posted by brandrea

We’ve got about 170 billion barrels to sell you if we could get some pipe laid

Sorry, that wasn’t meant to be political, just stating the obvious

indeed

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by bondtoys

I have 2 EVs and absolutely love them - particularly the Mini SE!

Thinking about selling the Porsche....

I am on my second consecutive hybrid, but my next car will be EV.

[TheVTCGuy]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

I am on my second consecutive hybrid, but my next car will be EV.

Oh, and I forgot to mention the at Danny83 is going to get me a deal around 70% off of MSRP on a top of the line Luxury EV. Maybe 75

[Danny83]

Originally Posted by TheVTCGuy

Oh, and I forgot to mention the at Danny83 is going to get me a deal around 70% off of MSRP on a top of the line Luxury EV. Maybe 75

Hotwheels or Matchbox ? !

[mrricks]

Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.

[Mountains]

I suspect oil still has a fairly strong future. It will become cheaper to extract with technology and I’m sure the ingenuity of man will work out how to reduce the co2 pollution.

Batteries also use rare metals which are difficult to extract without causing environmental damage. EVs certainly aren’t the environmental wonders they’re marketed as!

[Blansky]

I posted recently about thermal power and this link is an interesting concept but I'm not sure either what is going to take up the slack until some of these technologies are developed further.

Bottom line though, we need to get off fossil fuels.

https://getpocket.com/explore/item/h...nge-everything

[bondtoys]

Originally Posted by mrricks

Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.

From the Solar panels on my house roof.
Alternatively, my country is giving nightly produced wind power away for free because we can‘t store it. Would be great, if we all would charge our EVs over night for that.

For sure it doesn‘t make sense burning fuel and gas to produce electricity for EVs or even worse nuke.
Just shows that we must change the way how we produce the energy that we are using.

[bondtoys]

Originally Posted by Mountains

Batteries also use rare metals which are difficult to extract without causing environmental damage. EVs certainly aren’t the environmental wonders they’re marketed as!

Those are arguments from many years ago.
Future of car batteries looks much different and the CO2 burden from battery production are compensated after 10-20000 miles.

[SPMN]

Originally Posted by mrricks

Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.

The article addresses that by noting solar power is now the cheapest form of new energy capacity for most of the world. Solar cells have been getting progressively more and more efficient while economies of scale keep driving the price lower and lower. Add in things like Tesla's new solar shingles, and wider adoption of solar arrays that are motorized to follow the sun's track through the sky, and it's clear that much of the world will be able to meet their power needs that way. I look forward to the day where most new construction is able to be built off-grid. It doesn't seem like it's that far in the future anymore.

[Blansky]

Originally Posted by SPMN

The article addresses that by noting solar power is now the cheapest form of new energy capacity for most of the world. Solar cells have been getting progressively more and more efficient while economies of scale keep driving the price lower and lower. Add in things like Tesla's new solar shingles, and wider adoption of solar arrays that are motorized to follow the sun's track through the sky, and it's clear that much of the world will be able to meet their power needs that way. I look forward to the day where most new construction is able to be built off-grid. It doesn't seem like it's that far in the future anymore.

Living in California, I'm surprised they 20 years ago they didn't make every new construction have solar. Minimal cost to the cost of a new home.

[twitch54]

Originally Posted by mrricks

Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.

not quite, coal currently generates just over 30%, basically even with natural gas

[brandrea]

There’s some interesting hydrogen technology for automobiles being developed too

[CamSLC]

Originally Posted by twitch54

not quite, coal currently generates just over 30%, basically even with natural gas

It's actually state dependent. Mine is 66% when last reported. Which is down substantially from 5 years prior.

https://www.eia.gov/state/

[Chester01]

I drive diesel and get 40mpg and that’s just around town and close to 50mpg highway. The hybrid vehicles get maybe that and some less, but what’s the difference between filling up at the gas station or taking electric from Your house, which they in turn get from petroleum or other fossil fuels?

[SPMN]

Originally Posted by Chester01

I drive diesel and get 40mpg and that’s just around town and close to 50mpg highway. The hybrid vehicles get maybe that and some less, but what’s the difference between filling up at the gas station or taking electric from Your house, which they in turn get from petroleum or other fossil fuels?

Because alternatives to fossil fuels exist. Nuclear, wind, solar. This article, and many others, point out that solar is now the least expensive way to produce new energy. I'm sure coal and gas will exist in some form for a very long time, but they're on the way out, relatively speaking.

Even Cadillac plans to offer only EV vehicles by 2030.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by SPMN

Because alternatives to fossil fuels exist. Nuclear, wind, solar. This article, and many others, point out that solar is now the least expensive way to produce new energy. I'm sure coal and gas will exist in some form for a very long time, but they're on the way out, relatively speaking.

Even Cadillac plans to offer only EV vehicles by 2030.

I agree. It’s just a matter of time until fossil fuels are exhausted, and why not start now rather than wait until until that happens. That said, I do wonder with all these electric cars running now, and are pulling from some fossil fuels, I imagine many would be surprised to learn that their electric vehicles now as they exist as not as clean as they think. Once solar and wind, etc. take over electric cars will be actually clean.


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[bondtoys]

" Producing batteries for EVS is using up a lot of additional energy and adds pollution in comparison to traditional cars":

While that is true today, the negative effects of battery production are usually compensated by their efficiency in 10.000 - 20.000 miles.
Additionally nobody presently counts in the energy and pollution (esp. fracking) that is necessary to "produce“ and transport oil and gas!

"As our electric energy mainly comes from fossil (oil and gas) we can rather burn them in car engines instead of transforming them to electric energy in an industrial plant":

Let's take an example: An EV with 70 KW/hrs has a range of ~250 miles.
70 KW/h equals the energy of of 2,2 gallons of petrol!
How far can your car drive with 2,2 gallons of petrol?

Combustion engines are wasting 70-75% of the energy by converting the energy into heat.

So, even if we all drove EVs (which only use 30-35% of the energy of a combustion engine), our energy consumption in total would be significantly less - even if the electric power came by 100% from burning oil and gas.
Because EVs are so much more efficient and don't waste the largest part of the energy into heat!

[77T]

There are EV Tradeoffs that will not be overcome for decades - primarily in the technologies and the infrastructure to allow long-range driving.

Those who claimed carbon footprint advantages hadn’t compared the carbon cost in production of the batteries. Plus, there is another cost to reclaim them when new ones must be installed.

The other technology that could extend ICE car market domination is future synfuel production economies of scale. Even today operational economies can get to $20/bbl. But building large scale synfuel plants is still prohibitively high compared to fracking and existing/new oil reserves.


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[superdog]

Originally Posted by brandrea

We’ve got about 170 billion barrels to sell you if we could get some pipe laid

Sorry, that wasn’t meant to be political, just stating the obvious

I thought it was a decent joke.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by mrricks

Someone please tell me where the electricity for these EVs comes from. Half of the electricity in the US still comes from coal. Natural gas is quickly replacing coal but it’s still a fossil fuel. It would probably be more efficient to power vehicles with natgas directly rather than convert natgas to electricity.

I think your percentages are incorrect. In 2019 Coal accounted for 23.4% of US electric production.
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3

And given the 2020 closures, that percentage has likely declined further.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...unced-in-2020/

Stay Safe.

[bondtoys]

Originally Posted by 77T

The other technology that could extend ICE car market domination is future synfuel production economies of scale. Even today operational economies can get to $20/bbl. But building large scale synfuel plants is still prohibitively high compared to fracking and existing/new oil reserves.

Suggest that you research the energy that is needed to produce synthetic fuel and then think again.....

And with fracking nobody really considers the environmental damage that is caused by it

[Dyim]

I am thinking of holding onto some of my ICE cars because they could be a dying breed. I truly enjoy the sound, feel, and even smell of ICE.

But I think North America will be slow to phase out ICE compared to Europe for a multitude of reasons.