“Not a Supply Issue / There is NO Shortage” Says Govberg

[Krash]

Supply and demand for dummies

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=720uyg0Dd_M

[Monty22]

Originally Posted by GEO_79

A few years ago I bought a steel sub and a an explorer 2 from the AD , both were sitting on the shelf. There was no demand a few years ago? People discovered Rolex in the last 2-3 years? Let me tell you something: Artificial shortage!

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Nothing artificial at all. This has been explained numerous times. To recap:

1. Monetary policy
2. Explosion of wealth in China
3. Instagram
4. Covid. People not spending $ elsewhere and manufacturing shut downs

Also nursery school stuff.


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[GEO_79]

Originally Posted by Monty22

Nothing artificial at all. This has been explained numerous times. To recap:

1. Monetary policy
2. Explosion of wealth in China
3. Instagram
4. Covid. People not spending $ elsewhere and manufacturing shut downs

Also nursery school stuff.


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Yeah we talk about China economy for the last 20-30 years. Nope. This artificial shortage started before the pandemic. Lots of bla bla Rolex doesn't need Instagram, they are the most famous and they always been. The didn't need Instagram

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[jssans]

Demand is very high. Why is this even debatable? I can understand debating “The High Demand”. It’s fun & that’s part of TRF. But saying there is not a high demand is some Ancient Aliens talk.


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[Chester01]

Also, let me remind folks. Rolex produces about as many watches as Subaru makes annually. Does anyone think Subaru’s are rare. Wake up folks.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Also, let me remind folks. Rolex produces about as many watches as Subaru makes annually. Does anyone think Subaru’s are rare. Wake up folks.

Subaru watches are cool.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by jssans

Demand is very high. Why is this even debatable?

I agree. It's hysterical. People want to believe in some sort of dark conspiracy theory in which Rolex and the ADs are purposely creating an "artificial" shortage. It's funny.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by GEO_79

Y This artificial shortage started before the pandemic.
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What's an artificial shortage?

[DuckaDiesel]

There is plenty supply, new subs poping up on watchrecon weekly if not daily.
They are not moving as fast though so maybe I can get 1 at retail this year.


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[GEO_79]

Originally Posted by Krash

What's an artificial shortage?

Artificial scarcity is scarcity of items despite the available technology for production or the sufficient capacity for sharing. 

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[GEO_79]

Rolex are machine made, not hand made. They can cover any demand,ok? I don't believe any of the b....t that Rolex can't cover the demand. They always been in demand. They just want to make this artificial scarcity. I'm not going to argue with all the Rolex zombies, because there many of them. So this is my last message on this thread.

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[zengineer]

All we can say is that there is a suppy/demand imbalance. Rolex makes about a million watches a year, probably 20% less in the year of covid. Demand is more difficult to measure...impossible to do with any real accuracy.

But again, when everything made sells and the secondary market prices it well above retail you have an imbalance...period.

Rolex sells every watch they choose to make. They don't have any problems. If they really really wanted to, they could invest and within a year or two dramatically increase output. They have in the past and continue to choose not to.

So yes, there technically is a shortage but not one that anyone plans to, cares to or is likely to ever correct.

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[Rexplorer214270]

Honestly, it is not an artificial shortage, Rolex is making the same amount of watches it is just people have realized the retained value in the Rolex.

[David001]

Originally Posted by GEO_79

Rolex are machine made, not hand made. They can cover any demand,ok? I don't believe any of the b....t that Rolex can't cover the demand. They always been in demand. They just want to make this artificial scarcity. I'm not going to argue with all the Rolex zombies, because there many of them. So this is my last message on this thread.

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Oh, just when you were making so much sense as well.

My goodness, there is one born every minute

[sgwatchguy]

Originally Posted by David001

Oh, just when you were making so much sense as well.

My goodness, there is one born every minute

I commend your patience and perseverance

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by GEO_79

Rolex are machine made, not hand made. They can cover any demand,ok? I don't believe any of the b....t that Rolex can't cover the demand. They always been in demand.

I don’t think it’s that simple. High level of vertical integration. Increasing production capacity to meet demand would cost billions and would involve tremendous risk. They are growing share in a shrinking market. They have to be cautious.

Originally Posted by Krash

I agree. It's hysterical. People want to believe in some sort of dark conspiracy theory in which Rolex and the ADs are purposely creating an "artificial" shortage. It's funny.

Originally Posted by Rexplorer214270

Honestly, it is not an artificial shortage, Rolex is making the same amount of watches it is just people have realized the retained value in the Rolex.

True, but to be fair to GEO, Rolex and the ADs do employ perceived scarcity marketing techniques. Watches are in the back, we only get one of that model per year, secrecy about customer selection process, etc. But, Rolex isn’t making 800K watches and putting 300K in an underground vault to artificially reduce supply. They distribute everything they assemble.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Also, let me remind folks. Rolex produces about as many watches as Subaru makes annually. Does anyone think Subaru’s are rare. Wake up folks.

Who is saying they are rare? What people are saying (sensibly) is that demand is greater than supply, that it.

Demand greater than supply which results in high prices does not mean something is ‘rare’.


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[UK_]

Originally Posted by vh2k

I don’t think it’s that simple. High level of vertical integration. Increasing production capacity to meet demand would cost billions and would involve tremendous risk. They are growing share in a shrinking market. They have to be cautious.





True, but to be fair to GEO, Rolex and the ADs do employ perceived scarcity marketing techniques. Watches are in the back, we only get one of that model per year, secrecy about customer selection process, etc. But, Rolex isn’t making 800K watches and putting 300K in an underground vault to artificially reduce supply. They distribute everything they assemble.

Spot on. The perception is driving even higher demand.


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[Krash]

Einstein always said that the simplest solution is usually the right one. Ergo, demand exceeds the supply. It's the simplest solution and is actually based on fundamental economic principles.

When people start coming up with things like "artificial shortages" and other conspiracies, then it becomes far more speculative and difficult to prove.

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Krash

Einstein always said that the simplest solution is usually the right one. Ergo, demand exceeds the supply. It's the simplest solution and is actually based on fundamental economic principles.

When people start coming up with things like "artificial shortages" and other conspiracies, then it becomes far more speculative and difficult to prove.

Occam’s Razor

[vh2k]

Originally Posted by Fleetlord

That’s very probable. Happens all the time in distribution. The big dealers get the goods. The small guys won’t. Just because Govberg and their circle of high powered dealers get record allocation, doesn’t mean all AD do. They get less to feed the whales. Just like AD treat the public, Rolex prioritizes the prime movers. The cat was let out of the bag..whoops

He really screwed up with that commentary on multiple fronts. I wouldn’t be surprised if his series quietly goes away...

Agreed, this entire supply/demand debate is entertaining but it’s the same discussion over and over again.

The truly fascinating topic here is the perfect storm of sensitive and awkward revelations he made public, the politics around how and why the commentary was pulled so quickly, and the analysis of the aftermath.

He may be going on an extended vacation for a few weeks.

[zengineer]

Originally Posted by GEO_79

Rolex are machine made, not hand made. They can cover any demand,ok? I don't believe any of the b....t that Rolex can't cover the demand. They always been in demand. They just want to make this artificial scarcity. I'm not going to argue with all the Rolex zombies, because there many of them. So this is my last message on this thread.

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Rolex has 4000 or so employees. Are they all just machine maintenance workers? Of course there are machines involved. By that definition cars are machine made but that does that mean there is a giant macine where they pour iron ore in one end and get watches out the other?

Its not as if they shut off this mythical machineat 2:30 every afternoon just to screw with us.

Are gears machined on a CNC and not filed by hand...of course. Are some processes of assembly completed or assisted with machines...of course...but to call them machine made like they are Corn Flakes is an oversimplification.

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[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by Krash

Einstein always said that the simplest solution is usually the right one. Ergo, demand exceeds the supply. It's the simplest solution and is actually based on fundamental economic principles.

When people start coming up with things like "artificial shortages" and other conspiracies, then it becomes far more speculative and difficult to prove.

Supply and demand assumes a free market. The sale of Rolex watches does not operate this way. It’s anything but “fundamental economic principles.”

Some of the “conspiracies” stated on this forum in the past have turned into actual legal accusations in the past month or so, so I’m not sure if the conspiracy theorists are as crazy as most of the people on this forum, who ardently defend Rolex and their precious AD at every opportunity, would lead you to believe. As someone said above, every new Rolex on the secondary market came from an AD.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

Supply and demand assumes a free market. The sale of Rolex watches does not operate this way. It’s anything but “fundamental economic principles.”

Some of the “conspiracies” stated on this forum in the past have turned into actual legal accusations in the past month or so, so I’m not sure if the conspiracy theorists are as crazy as most of the people on this forum, who ardently defend Rolex and their precious AD at every opportunity, would lead you to believe. As someone said above, every new Rolex on the secondary market came from an AD.

Of course it's a free market.

Also, of course all watches on the secondary market come from ADs. Where else would they come from? No doubt there are flippers in between.

[drfrankenstein]

Originally Posted by Krash

Of course it's a free market.

Also, of course all watches on the secondary market come from ADs. Where else would they come from? No doubt there are flippers in between.

In a free market ADs would be able to set the price and ADs would sell product to the next person willing to pay for it, not based on some caste system.

The current situation encourages flipping to secondary market which may cause price inflation.

[Krash]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

In a free market ADs would be able to set the price and ADs would sell product to the next person willing to pay for it, not based on some caste system.

The current situation encourages flipping to secondary market which may cause price inflation.

It's a free market. There is no government control, no government intervention. Manufactures and dealers are free to negotiate terms amongst themselves.

The current demand encourages flipping because of value. It's no different than real estate in FL. The demand for waterfront property in certain locations far exceeds the supply. I bought a house a year ago and now it's worth about 20% more. I could flip and make money if I wanted to (but why would I? I love the house and the value will likely increase further).

Grey markets are a buy-product of a free market. They in fact epitomize the very definition of a free market.

[TacticaLCawacoL]

One sure thing is that some people do have dozens and dozens of the same watch BNIB with stickers... That is not very cool for those who really are passionate/work hard to save the money to get their dream watch at a decent price, but there has always been some buyers ready to pay the crazy price. Good for them.
This is a hobby for me, not a matter of life and death or making/invest money, and even less a trend.
Whatever is going on out there in the market, no matter if Roli is shipping more or less watches here and there, I would never pay above msrp for anything, even if i need it super bad or even if money isn’t an issue. I would focus on something else instead.

[UK_]

Originally Posted by drfrankenstein

In a free market ADs would be able to set the price and ADs would sell product to the next person willing to pay for it, not based on some caste system.

The current situation encourages flipping to secondary market which may cause price inflation.

It’s a completely free market. Demand is massive, supply is limited so prices are up.

What grey dealers do in the middle of the market is not what is causing high prices.

Rolex are never going to allow their retail prices to rise up to the inflated market prices right now, because they never want to reduce them in the future.

They know what they are doing.


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[dauster]

Originally Posted by Wrist King

I’ve been doing some digging. Does anybody know if Govberg the jewellers is in any way linked to Dan Govberg of Watchbox?


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correct watchbox is secondary market arm of govberg

[rickysixx6]

conflicts with what my AD said a few days ago. Either way, demand is up, for sure and it's all due to inflation hedging.