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Old 2 August 2021, 07:51 AM   #151
IR201
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Yes! One clarification, though: for the second scenario, it’s typically priced relative to msrp of the current version (less a certain percentage). The msrp at time of original production is largely irrelevant (with the exception of the rare long-lingering NOS pieces, but those are free and far between enough to be all but irrelevant).
Right!! Makes sense. Thanks a lot for your thoughts, which square the logic for me
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Old 2 August 2021, 08:00 AM   #152
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For those who refuse to pay over retail on Rolex, I'm genuinely curious as to this hypothetical:

Would you pay 10,000 USD plus tax for a BLRO, if you wanted one?

or 13,500 USD plus tax for a ceramic daytona, if you wanted one?

Or is it a matter of principle and you'd rather wait for years possibly than pay literally 1 cent over MSRP?
For me the anticipation of getting something is as much fun as getting it. Waiting for the Daytona or Sky Dweller and then...."getting the call" and getting my dream watch at the price it's supposed to sell for is a real thrill and it's not going to be replicated by calling DavidSW or whoever to buy a piece at 2-3 times what the AD price would be. Difference is same between catching a fish yourself and going to the fish market. Or finding the girl of your dreams vs going to a prostitute. I've been fortunate that I've been able to get a lot of really wonderful in demand pieces from the AD without spending an arm and a leg in gratuitous purchases to elevate my status. Perhaps if I was waiting for 3 years for a ladies PM Datejust with diamonds I'd feel very differently but I've been able to get the pieces I want within a reasonable amount of time ....just long enough really to create the heightened sense of desire and anticipation to make it fun. Almost like foreplay.
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Old 2 August 2021, 09:23 AM   #153
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Very reasonable!



One thing I would add is the following: there's another thread somewhere on here about Rolex artificially restricting supply to preserve/increase market demand. While I'm with you on blaming the flippers who ruin the hobby, you have to wonder whether Wilsdorf had the vision that Rolex would participate - drive, even - the current market games we are seeing. I don't know the history as well as I'm sure you do.
I don't believe that Rolex is doing any more than keeping their production within normal limits. It's not in their interest to build out the facilities to meet demand that might evaporate tomorrow and they damn sure don't want to be in the position some luxury brands were in a few years ago of having to buy back stock from ADS.

Rolex is so well run that it's scary, but in a good way.

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Old 2 August 2021, 03:08 PM   #154
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All of my watches are from Authorized Dealer/Boutique.
I will never pay over retail or buy from grey market.
With the greatest of respect, with your purchase history, I doubt you would have to wait long to buy your next piece from an A.D.

Many do not have the previous buying 'clout' that enables them to obtain just their one desired Rolex from an A.D.
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Old 2 August 2021, 11:35 PM   #155
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Rolex is so well run that it's scary, but in a good way.
Agreed. In the beginning a few years back was a bit perplexed (ok, I was angry like others as have been an enthusiast for decades), yet Rolex and their ADs kept their composure and now that it's all sorted out am truly impressed by Rolex's continued excellence. That, my friends, is what makes Rolex, well, Rolex.

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Old 2 August 2021, 11:49 PM   #156
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[QUOTE=fsprow;11614295]
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I personally think a huge chunk of the current rolex second market value is not sustainable and basically triggered by the grey market acquiring a substantial amount of pieces from ADs. Therefore, I would take the view that were this issue to disappear (say by Rolex taking over distribution or otherwise), the prices would considerably drop (maybe not to retail, but likely to remain reasonable). Furthermore, any positive value difference when compared to retail would be driven by real demand as opposed to speculation.
…………
By the way, speculation IS “real demand”. And “reasonable” is in the eye of the buyer.
I guess my point was rather that currently you are actually paying the AD some kind of (in my view) disproportionate fee for making the relevant model available.

I cant think of another market where this occurs in an organised fashion like it does in the watch market. You do have individuals acquiring limited pieces (flippers), e.g. limited editions of cars, luxury handbags, etc. and reselling at a premium, but there are no actual companies (to my knowledge :D ) doing this as their main business object.

Cheers,
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Old 3 August 2021, 12:47 AM   #157
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I like a Rolex watch because is well made and because it keeps reasonable time, I dislike black market pricing and although Rolex is not who is doing it, they are to blame.
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Old 3 August 2021, 03:11 AM   #158
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[QUOTE=Sisyphus;11616908]
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Originally Posted by fsprow View Post

I guess my point was rather that currently you are actually paying the AD some kind of (in my view) disproportionate fee for making the relevant model available.

I cant think of another market where this occurs in an organised fashion like it does in the watch market. You do have individuals acquiring limited pieces (flippers), e.g. limited editions of cars, luxury handbags, etc. and reselling at a premium, but there are no actual companies (to my knowledge :D ) doing this as their main business object.

Cheers,

There are a lot of markets like this but it’s for much more boring goods and usually has a lot more to do with what quantity one must buy in to get a “dealer’s” attention.

There are also more organized resellers of luxury goods, but typically preowned pieces (purses, cars, etc).
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Old 3 August 2021, 03:19 AM   #159
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I pay about 10% over MSRP in the form of sales tax
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Old 3 August 2021, 12:09 PM   #160
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I don’t have Instagram so I have no need to pay over MSRP.

I’ll wait for the AD and save $20k.

And I don’t buy things I don’t want to get access to the things I do. I can’t imagine being manipulated to buy a luxury item.


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Old 3 August 2021, 12:11 PM   #161
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I don’t have Instagram so I have no need to pay over MSRP.

I’ll wait for the AD and save $20k.

And I don’t buy things I don’t want to get access to the things I do. I can’t imagine being manipulated to buy a luxury item.


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I totally agree with you my friend. The fact that people act like these AD’s are doing people a favour by bundling items of crap we don’t want blows my mind.


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Old 3 August 2021, 12:34 PM   #162
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Well...I'm waiting to get my next from an AD at a discounted off MSRP just like 2 of the last 3. SS Daytona was #2 with special financing at no interest for 30 months. I can and will wait.
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Old 3 August 2021, 12:46 PM   #163
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I've always gone through an AD to buy any watch, Rolex included. When I first joined the forum, I saw that many here opted for the "gray" market...as it was a way of getting a discount on the price of a new watch. The "savvy" buyers all went gray. Of course, many also purchased used, err, pre-owned, watches via gray dealers. It was one way to get discontinued models that were still sought after.

I was more risk averse, however. While there were savings to be had going "gray", buying a new watch from an AD eliminated the risk of getting something that wasn't quite what was advertised. I'm no watch expert, so I didn't want to take the chance on acquiring a Rolex that wasn't genuine, through and through. Yes, there were "trusted" sellers here, but even so, I've seen the occasional thread where a recently purchased "pre-owned" watch is sent in to RSC and, lo and behold, the dial is a fake, or what have you.

So, because of this caution on my part, as the years passed and I accumulated enough watches to claim the title of "collector" (one of the great rationalizations), I continued going back to the same AD. And, naturally enough, I dealt with the same two or three sales associates. And, naturally enough, that formed the basis of a "relationship". It was just the passage of time and being a fairly regular customer. When the new ceramic Daytona came out, a few years ago, that "relationship" paid off. I was able to land a white dial not long after they were released. So, this year, when the new Explorer 36mm was released, it was simply a no brainer to return to that same AD, a little Ben Bridge in a mall, and express interest when the new release was announced. And, as luck would have it, my trusty local AD got ahold of one of the new Explorer's recently and, again, that relationship paid off.

The savings a gray dealer offers today is measured in time, not money. But, I've got more time than money! For example, while I very much wanted that new Explorer, I resolved to wait however long it took. The tortoise approach, that's all.

I am fortunate that most of my purchases were made before this age of shortages and instagram driven demand. I shake my head in wonder at threads where "strategies" to develop a relationship with an AD are discussed. I never set out to build a relationship with the AD. In fact, often I'd tell myself, "this will be the last one" (another great rationalization). But, I'm a guy who likes watches, and, especially Rolex, so, as the years passed, the collection grew and so did the AD relationship. It might be a different story if I were starting out now, in the current environment. As with many things in life, timing is often everything.

For example, when I decided, back in 2002, to buy, at last, a Rolex...I was torn between a dive watch and the GMT. Ben Bridge was having a trunk show. So, in the same little mall store, they had just about every model you could name. I looked at the Submariner, Submariner Date, Sea-Dweller, GMT Master II--one of each variants: black bezel, Pepsi bezel, Coke bezel Tried them on one after another, never imagining that about 20 years later, this would be an impossibility. Ben Bridge, at the time, offered MSRP, but also a deal where you could put down a deposit, and finance the balance, with zero interest, over a year. And, that's how I bought my first Rolex, a GMT Master with the "Coke" bezel. At the time, I didn't even know they had those nicknames.

Timing...
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Old 3 August 2021, 04:41 PM   #164
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Originally Posted by Lew Archer View Post
I've always gone through an AD to buy any watch, Rolex included. When I first joined the forum, I saw that many here opted for the "gray" market...as it was a way of getting a discount on the price of a new watch. The "savvy" buyers all went gray. Of course, many also purchased used, err, pre-owned, watches via gray dealers. It was one way to get discontinued models that were still sought after.

I was more risk averse, however. While there were savings to be had going "gray", buying a new watch from an AD eliminated the risk of getting something that wasn't quite what was advertised. I'm no watch expert, so I didn't want to take the chance on acquiring a Rolex that wasn't genuine, through and through. Yes, there were "trusted" sellers here, but even so, I've seen the occasional thread where a recently purchased "pre-owned" watch is sent in to RSC and, lo and behold, the dial is a fake, or what have you.

So, because of this caution on my part, as the years passed and I accumulated enough watches to claim the title of "collector" (one of the great rationalizations), I continued going back to the same AD. And, naturally enough, I dealt with the same two or three sales associates. And, naturally enough, that formed the basis of a "relationship". It was just the passage of time and being a fairly regular customer. When the new ceramic Daytona came out, a few years ago, that "relationship" paid off. I was able to land a white dial not long after they were released. So, this year, when the new Explorer 36mm was released, it was simply a no brainer to return to that same AD, a little Ben Bridge in a mall, and express interest when the new release was announced. And, as luck would have it, my trusty local AD got ahold of one of the new Explorer's recently and, again, that relationship paid off.

The savings a gray dealer offers today is measured in time, not money. But, I've got more time than money! For example, while I very much wanted that new Explorer, I resolved to wait however long it took. The tortoise approach, that's all.

I am fortunate that most of my purchases were made before this age of shortages and instagram driven demand. I shake my head in wonder at threads where "strategies" to develop a relationship with an AD are discussed. I never set out to build a relationship with the AD. In fact, often I'd tell myself, "this will be the last one" (another great rationalization). But, I'm a guy who likes watches, and, especially Rolex, so, as the years passed, the collection grew and so did the AD relationship. It might be a different story if I were starting out now, in the current environment. As with many things in life, timing is often everything.

For example, when I decided, back in 2002, to buy, at last, a Rolex...I was torn between a dive watch and the GMT. Ben Bridge was having a trunk show. So, in the same little mall store, they had just about every model you could name. I looked at the Submariner, Submariner Date, Sea-Dweller, GMT Master II--one of each variants: black bezel, Pepsi bezel, Coke bezel Tried them on one after another, never imagining that about 20 years later, this would be an impossibility. Ben Bridge, at the time, offered MSRP, but also a deal where you could put down a deposit, and finance the balance, with zero interest, over a year. And, that's how I bought my first Rolex, a GMT Master with the "Coke" bezel. At the time, I didn't even know they had those nicknames.

Timing...
Nice write up Lew. Totally get your point of view.
My nearest AD messed up a repair with their own Rolex Service department.
They didn’t make it right, gave me an attitude and I became one of the savvy buyers.
I lost all trust in AD’s (majority of them in my country belong to the same chain) and found excellent customer treatment from local trusted sellers.
Works for me
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Old 3 August 2021, 05:28 PM   #165
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Haven’t bought a Rolex in a few years so I’ve been lucky to be able to buy used for less than Msrp or lucky to buy new at msrp.

Can’t ever imagine buying over msrp for anything. Not shoes or watch or anything


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Old 3 August 2021, 07:50 PM   #166
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I don't think paying anything over MSRP is bad, but it depends how much you pay over MSRP. Would I pay 5-10% over MSRP if it means getting the watch I knew was otherwise very rare or that I knew would be unavailable for the forseeable future? Yes. Would i pay 20% or more? No, not a chance and I genuinely pity the people who are paying double the MSRP for SS Sky Dwellers from the scalping and unethical flippers in the boutique sections of this forum and on Chrono24.
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Old 3 August 2021, 08:49 PM   #167
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Refusing to pay above MSRP for it’s own sake is just ridiculous grandstanding.


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Old 3 August 2021, 09:19 PM   #168
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I never understood folks only willing to pay MSRP but developing spend history on unwanted items.

Wouldn't grey be cheaper at that point?
I have 5 Rolex, all from AD at MSRP within past 18 months. Never bought another item from the store. Some here laugh at forming a relationship, but that is the way it is done. Nothing more than building a friendship, which I have done with my SA, just like the one I have with the clerk at the coffee shop. It costs nothing to be friendly, sincere, and build a trust relationship.
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Old 3 August 2021, 09:27 PM   #169
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2018 TRF: “I would NEVER pay a cent over MSRP for a 116500LN stainless steel Daytona! Paying $17K is crazy!”

2021 TRF: “Well, I would pay up to $17K for a 116500LN stainless steel Daytona… But any thing beyond that is crazy!”
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Old 3 August 2021, 09:48 PM   #170
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What goes around comes around!

Yes, there’s a craze for all things SS at the moment but tastes change over time.

Come the next trend, people will remember dealers insisting on bundles, high margin jewellery and the like.

When this market dies down (and it will for some but not all pieces), I know already the dealers I will and will not be visiting!

An AD with no stock but an interest in clients is very different to some of the SA’s you see who give car salesmen a good name!
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Old 4 August 2021, 02:57 AM   #171
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Nice write up Lew. Totally get your point of view.
My nearest AD messed up a repair with their own Rolex Service department.
They didn’t make it right, gave me an attitude and I became one of the savvy buyers.
I lost all trust in AD’s (majority of them in my country belong to the same chain) and found excellent customer treatment from local trusted sellers.
Works for me
Thanks for the kind words. Yes, I can see how getting burned like that could prompt you to look for other options. I'm glad you were ultimately able to find satisfaction through those trusted sellers.

In the end, it really comes down to the character of the individuals in any business transaction. When I expressed interest in that Explorer, I had full confidence the sales associate I'd worked with in the past would do all she could. I didn't go anywhere else. I knew I could rely on her. And, I'm glad you've found sellers of the same dependable, ethical, helpful nature. Makes this hobby much more enjoyable...
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Old 4 August 2021, 03:03 AM   #172
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I think we all have a line in the sand as to what we will pay. It’s different for everyone
I agree! I would not pay $20K for a Hulk, maybe $1K-$2K above
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Old 4 August 2021, 06:33 AM   #173
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I have 5 Rolex, all from AD at MSRP within past 18 months. Never bought another item from the store. Some here laugh at forming a relationship, but that is the way it is done. Nothing more than building a friendship, which I have done with my SA, just like the one I have with the clerk at the coffee shop. It costs nothing to be friendly, sincere, and build a trust relationship.

Absolutely nothing wrong with being friendly with people. You’re more Likely to get things done the way you want if people like you.


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Old 4 August 2021, 07:28 AM   #174
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I never understood folks only willing to pay MSRP but developing spend history on unwanted items.

Wouldn't grey be cheaper at that point?

It works pretty well if the missus likes jewelry


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Old 4 August 2021, 07:34 AM   #175
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It works pretty well if the missus likes jewelry
Yup, and if you love timepieces that don't have to be the 'hot' piece(s). For example, during the same visit my Muse/wife got a Cartier Tank XL and I a Heuer Monaco Gulf.
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Old 4 August 2021, 07:59 AM   #176
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Yup, and if you love timepieces that don't have to be the 'hot' piece(s). For example, during the same visit my Muse/wife got a Cartier Tank XL and I a Heuer Monaco Gulf.

Did you check out the cartier Santos for men? Love that watch


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Old 4 August 2021, 08:32 AM   #177
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I agree! I would not pay $20K for a Hulk, maybe $1K-$2K above
I think the Hulk is worth 20k, if you have the 20k of course. People are paying 15k for those abysmal black subs.
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Old 4 August 2021, 09:20 AM   #178
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the funny thing is that the people that are adamant that they will not pay ONE PENNY OVER MSRP always want the most OVER MSRP when they want to sell one of their watches that they WILL NEVER SELL! lol They also have no problem grinding a dealer within an inch of his life when something sells below list price and is not in high demand....what happened to only paying MSRP in those cases? lol
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Old 4 August 2021, 03:34 PM   #179
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I personally think a huge chunk of the current rolex second market value is not sustainable and basically triggered by the grey market acquiring a substantial amount of pieces from ADs. Therefore, I would take the view that were this issue to disappear (say by Rolex taking over distribution or otherwise), the prices would considerably drop (maybe not to retail, but likely to remain reasonable). Furthermore, any positive value difference when compared to retail would be driven by real demand as opposed to speculation.

Cheers,


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I think this myth of ADs selling to Grey's direct is not backed up by any hard evidence. Rolex are actively blocking individuals who flip to Greys as they can find out the serial numbers without too much hassle. imagine if they caught an AD doing this? It's just too serious an issue for an AD to risk loosing their AD Rolex status for. I'm happy to eat my words if anyone has any REAL evidence this is what's happening. Unscrupulous individuals who go to several ADs and wait until they get a watch then flip them immediately, knowing they will never go back to the same AD again - that's far more likely to be the real scenario.
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Old 4 August 2021, 03:53 PM   #180
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I think this myth of ADs selling to Grey's direct is not backed up by any hard evidence. Rolex are actively blocking individuals who flip to Greys as they can find out the serial numbers without too much hassle. imagine if they caught an AD doing this? It's just too serious an issue for an AD to risk loosing their AD Rolex status for. I'm happy to eat my words if anyone has any REAL evidence this is what's happening. Unscrupulous individuals who go to several ADs and wait until they get a watch then flip them immediately, knowing they will never go back to the same AD again - that's far more likely to be the real scenario.

The idea that dark shadowy forces are at work to deprive genuine lovers of Rolex watches from ADs makes it easier for many to sleep better at night.

It’s that or accept the bruising truth which is that I, the individual is not a favourite of the AD by whatever criteria they have set in determining their favourites.

And some even go so far as to say ADs should not be allowed to play favourites. I shudder at the hypocrisy.


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