Prices not dropping?

[amh]

Originally Posted by jb335

I think a problem in this thread is many people are using Moda as current market price. Maybe I am mistaken, but Moda is wholesale sales and not the end user price.

Moda also appears to be the main place where the “backpack flippers” go to sell. I am not knocking them, but I think this means it is not only wholesale pricing but wholesale pricing on the lower end.

I don’t thinks it’s fair to compare moda pricing to actual retail pricing.


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Indeed it's not since most people won't join Moda/FB.

The markets as I see them:
1) AD
2) FB/Moda (or other such private forums)
3) TRF for sale
4) Ebay
5) Chrono24
6) Selling/buying direct to Grey

[rickytz7111]

Look at Christie's auction from today.

https://www.christies.com/en/auction...-part-i-29567/

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by jb335

I think a problem in this thread is many people are using Moda as current market price. Maybe I am mistaken, but Moda is wholesale sales and not the end user price.

Moda also appears to be the main place where the “backpack flippers” go to sell. I am not knocking them, but I think this means it is not only wholesale pricing but wholesale pricing on the lower end.

I don’t thinks it’s fair to compare moda pricing to actual retail pricing.


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Moda is just another market masquerading as wholesale. Price wise it’s generally auctions > Ebay > c24 > Forums > FB > Dealerchats/Wholesale.

[Mrngrz46]

Originally Posted by rickytz7111

Look at Christie's auction from today.

https://www.christies.com/en/auction...-part-i-29567/

Clearly biased auction

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Price may be dropping, but still (published today)...

Rolex Daytona black, 2021, full stickered + qr code, full set: CHF 45k
Rolex Daytona white, 2022, full stickered + qr code, full set: CHF 61k

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by GB-man

Moda is just another market masquerading as wholesale. Price wise it’s generally auctions > Ebay > c24 > Forums > FB > Dealerchats/Wholesale.

This. Anyone can buy on Moda.

Regardless, these "backpack flippers" were buying and selling Daytonas for $50k a few months ago on there and they're now trading them for high-$30s. That is certainly relevant market color.

[derklink]

I go by reputation and prior deal experience so my way to go would be grey if I cannot source from an AD. While Moda seems to be legit, I personally wouldn't do it.

[BrazenC5]

Originally Posted by derklink

I go by reputation and prior deal experience so my way to go would be grey if I cannot source from an AD. While Moda seems to be legit, I personally wouldn't do it.

But if your grey buys from Moda...?

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[Slambonie]

Originally Posted by Driver8

I'm not sure why so many cite large greys (and DavidSW in particular) as the all-seeing, all-encompassing, gospel-truth, and global oracle of watch prices.

Greys are, by their very nature, trying to maximise the amount of money they make on everything they sell - it's their business, their income, and their livelihood. They are not providing an altruistic service of being the single true barometer of pricing. And I have no problem whatsoever with any of that.

Surely everyone must realise that large greys will ALWAYS be the first to raise prices, and the last to lower them. They raise prices quicker and higher to test the market by trading on their reputation, and they lower prices very slowly (if at all) because they are able to wait out the troughs in the hope that falling markets will rebound. None of them are about to cut their own throat and be the first to lower prices, because they are all about the profit - pure and simple. And again I have no problem with that at all.

IMO it's important to take a balanced view - what are things actually selling for outside of the greys, etc - before deciding what's accurate.

Get out of here with your logic an reasoning, emotional outbursts only.

[Slambonie]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

I am sorry. I meant like a reputable place I can buy one now for $38k. Not an auction or from some some guy that no one knows.

Maybe like this seller.
https://aiswatches.com/bnib-rolex-co...al-box-papers/
Or DSW
https://davidsw.com/shop/watch/rolex...hite-dial-138/
Or maybe this person
https://www.ocwatchguy.com/watch/7343


Honestly I can find a one off sale or seller and try to prove a point. Prices are not dropping. Maybe stabilizing but certainly not dropping.

dude you're a day late and a dollar short. go back to sleep

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by David001

The talk of prices only dropping slightly is optimistic at best, try selling one.

I can prove this via the communication I received but when I sold my 5712G the market price was £90k according to C24. I sold it eventually for £60k in a private sale. Watchbox offered me £30k, I pointed out that their offer was roughly 30% of market price but they were firm. My friend had the same experience with his 5712/1A-001, he was offered 35% advertised market prices two weeks ago, he’s decided to keep it.

Sale price to dealers is rock bottom, less than MRRP in some cases.

That's a sobering story. For what its worth I "sold" my Wimbledon RG DJ 41 to an AD for 14.5 last Monday, bought 3 months ago new at 18k, contingent on my YG DD40 coming in, which I was told 3-6 months. No trade in no DD! was their offer.
Will see...

[RoscoPico]

Originally Posted by theflywrist

A 5711 doesn't need to be 185K for it to be a flex. Even at 85K its a pretty damn ridiculous flex for a watch that sells at $30K and feels like a $15K watch at best.

can't remember a more honest statement

[eijiboy]

You yourself can buy it. Dont need to be a wholesale person. So end user can buy it no problem. i dont know where you getting your info. i Bought watch there and im not even a wholesale guy

Originally Posted by jb335

I think a problem in this thread is many people are using Moda as current market price. Maybe I am mistaken, but Moda is wholesale sales and not the end user price.

Moda also appears to be the main place where the “backpack flippers” go to sell. I am not knocking them, but I think this means it is not only wholesale pricing but wholesale pricing on the lower end.

I don’t thinks it’s fair to compare moda pricing to actual retail pricing.


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[Slambonie]

This is just like the pokemon market except seems to be about 6-10 months behind.

my psa 10 first edition charizard could've bought me an aventador at the peak, now only a huracan.

[bob sims]

Originally Posted by trout_thumper21

This is why I have only paid MSRP. Waited years in some instances

That's great if you are 35 and healthy. Some of us don't have "years" to blithely wait. If we want the watch NOW we don't care what people on some forum like or don't like When you are young you think you will live to 101 at least. As you start going to endless funerals of people your age or younger you become cured of this delusion.

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by bob sims

that's great if you are 35 and healthy. Some of us don't have "years" to blithely wait. If we want the watch now we don't care what people on some forum like or don't like when you are young you think you will live to 101 at least. As you start going to endless funerals of people your age or younger you become cured of this delusion.

+1

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by jb335

I think a problem in this thread is many people are using Moda as current market price. Maybe I am mistaken, but Moda is wholesale sales and not the end user price.

Moda also appears to be the main place where the “backpack flippers” go to sell. I am not knocking them, but I think this means it is not only wholesale pricing but wholesale pricing on the lower end.

I don’t thinks it’s fair to compare moda pricing to actual retail pricing.


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Except I have posted links to ads on this very forum that people seem to conveniently keep ignoring. 20%+ drops. Easy to see if you are looking.


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[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Federico made a video today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTJHU_14A-Y

He is saying that :

- professional (group chat) prices are 1 week head and are even lower than what we can see.
- small flippers cannot hold and drop prices earlier
- large grey sellers can hold the sell prices longer

Can someone confirm?

[derklink]

Originally Posted by BrazenC5

But if your grey buys from Moda...?

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Touché.

[Mxrider447]

Prices are definitely in a freefall anyone saying they are not has to have their head in the sand. Try contacting some of the watch buyers on this forum and a lot of them don't even want to make an offer or come in below MSRP. These are just facts and I'm not claiming to be an expert on watches but I stay in touch with what's going on and it's definitely like a burning building. People are running for the exits not everyone is going to get out. Gotta learn to take your L's like you take your W's

[jarecki]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Price may be dropping, but still (published today)...

Rolex Daytona black, 2021, full stickered + qr code, full set: CHF 45k
Rolex Daytona white, 2022, full stickered + qr code, full set: CHF 61k

Dreamland…

[whiskyrolex]

Originally Posted by jb335

I don’t thinks it’s fair to compare moda pricing to actual retail pricing.


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Another clueless take.

[Champagnepapi]

I’m chuckling while reading this thread lol


This grey dealer from Dubai bought all of y’all’s supply. Now he waiting for the rich broskis to come back from Ibiza or Monte Carlo to buy watches






And for whoever wants the full explanation with a lot of speculations and pure entertainment -

https://youtu.be/HIwQrhtL_wI


I’m heading back to the AP section. Goodnight.


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[GB-man]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

I’m chuckling while reading this thread lol


This grey dealer from Dubai bought all of y’all’s supply. Now he waiting for the rich broskis to come back from Ibiza or Monte Carlo to buy watches






And for whoever wants the full explanation with a lot of speculations and pure entertainment -

https://youtu.be/HIwQrhtL_wI


I’m heading back to the AP section. Goodnight.


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Imma tell my kids this was the iron sheik.

[Santiago32]

Originally Posted by rickytz7111

Look at Christie's auction from today.

https://www.christies.com/en/auction...-part-i-29567/

who buys these? Seems like crazy prices

[sneakertinker]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Federico made a video today: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTJHU_14A-Y

He is saying that :

- professional (group chat) prices are 1 week head and are even lower than what we can see.
- small flippers cannot hold and drop prices earlier
- large grey sellers can hold the sell prices longer

Can someone confirm?

The common sense take…Pre-COVID is where we’re headed near term…Long term? We’ll have to wait and see obviously…

[thomaspp]

Wait Moda is a “secret dealer page” and thus not the market? It has over 45k members!! Lol ��

Auctions houses are idiotic - half of the results are manipulated and the other half stupid rich customers who don’t care.

Most dealers collude to control prices - whether on the buy side or sell side and of course they will be slow to react and lower prices. Most of the dealers on here communicate with each other by WhatsApp.

Gotta do your own homework to figure out where the “market” really is. Can’t believe how naive some of these comments are…

[jb335]

Originally Posted by thomaspp

Wait Moda is a “secret dealer page” and thus not the market? It has over 45k members!! Lol ��

Auctions houses are idiotic - half of the results are manipulated and the other half stupid rich customers who don’t care.

Most dealers collude to control prices - whether on the buy side or sell side and of course they will be slow to react and lower prices. Most of the dealers on here communicate with each other by WhatsApp.

Gotta do your own homework to figure out where the “market” really is. Can’t believe how naive some of these comments are…

You’re helping to prove my point. Moda is part of the market. One data point. Along with those auction houses, What’s App groups you mention and many more (C24, brick and mortar on 47th, big online greys like DSW etc).

My point above is you cannot only take Moda prices and say those are the “true” market prices for those watches. Just like you couldn’t do that with the auction prices. Moda is one data point. And it happens to be one of the lowest data point to use for pricing. Sure, theoretically anyone can join to obtain those prices but not everyone knows how or has the capability…or willingness.


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[rolex16]

Originally Posted by jb335

You’re helping to prove my point. Moda is part of the market. One data point. Along with those auction houses, What’s App groups you mention and many more (C24, brick and mortar on 47th, big online greys like DSW etc).

My point above is you cannot only take Moda prices and say those are the “true” market prices for those watches. Just like you couldn’t do that with the auction prices. Moda is one data point. And it happens to be one of the lowest data point to use for pricing. Sure, theoretically anyone can join to obtain those prices but not everyone knows how or has the capability…or willingness.


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But people quoting one or two grey sites can call it the true market? Because some are doing just that.

[thomaspp]

Originally Posted by jb335

You’re helping to prove my point. Moda is part of the market. One data point. Along with those auction houses, What’s App groups you mention and many more (C24, brick and mortar on 47th, big online greys like DSW etc).

My point above is you cannot only take Moda prices and say those are the “true” market prices for those watches. Just like you couldn’t do that with the auction prices. Moda is one data point. And it happens to be one of the lowest data point to use for pricing. Sure, theoretically anyone can join to obtain those prices but not everyone knows how or has the capability…or willingness.


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Moda is not the lowest data point. I have no agenda and nothing to prove. Be well.