Prices not dropping?

[AmirudinAbduk]

Originally Posted by Adam84

Interesting.

Watch finder in the U.K. have reduced their prices by maybe £1000 but nowhere near those levels.

Still way over the top…..they even have TAGs listed at over MSRP

Same here, ive checked several grey dealers in uk. Big and small , not much price differences :/

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

Several commenters here are clearly in the denial phase.

A lazy argument to describe anyone who doesn't share your view. The high-profile watches which went up very fast are coming down, no denial. OTOH it doesn't seem to be true that ALL Rolexes are going down.

My crystal ball isn't working.

[the dark knight]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

We are heading back to normality. Rolex will be available at ADs again for MSRP. ADs may resist this because the COVID crazy years have been so good to them. But it is inevitable.

Rolex keep churning out watches every year on year. Once the flippers and the 'investment piece' people get the message that you can lose money on a Rolex, you will be left with the customers who actually just want a watch. I think we are just at the beginning. There will be a lot of amatuer flippers in waiting lists who will not even know the market has changed, until they try to sell. And a lot of pent up demand from regular customers who have not been able to get what they want in the last few years. But eventually Rolexes will start to appear in display cases at ADs again. This is good news for people who just like the watches and are not interested in the making money or investment stuff.

Difficult to say exactly when normal business will be resumed but it is coming. There may be dead cat bounces along the way but the COVID crazy years are passing into history.

One thing to keep in mind is that the craziness started prior to COVID. COVID took it to another level, but it wasn't easy finding fairly popular sports models (like even a Sub) at an AD in 2019.

IIRC, it was basically:

2016-2017: All sports models except Daytonas making it into display cases.

2018: Things start to tighten a bit, stuff like Subs/GMTs hard to find, stuff like Explorers pretty easy in display cases

2019: Things really tighten, even Explorers hard to find sometimes.

I think it's been a good 5 years since a random person could walk into a new AD and easily secure something like a Sub or a BLNR.

So I guess the question is even if the bubble bursts, what is the new normal?

[Slambonie]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

One thing to keep in mind is that the craziness started prior to COVID. COVID took it to another level, but it wasn't easy finding fairly popular sports models (like even a Sub) at an AD in 2019.

IIRC, it was basically:

2016-2017: All sports models except Daytonas making it into display cases.

2018: Things start to tighten a bit, stuff like Subs/GMTs hard to find, stuff like Explorers pretty easy in display cases

2019: Things really tighten, even Explorers hard to find sometimes.

I think it's been a good 5 years since a random person could walk into a new AD and easily secure something like a Sub or a BLNR.

So I guess the question is even if the bubble bursts, what is the new normal?

I was shopping for a daytona in manhattan summer of 2016. Went to many stores, daytonas were plentiful. Purchased at Wempe.

[Watchcollector123]

Originally Posted by Slambonie

I was shopping for a daytona in manhattan summer of 2016. Went to many stores, daytonas were plentiful. Purchased at Wempe.

Those Chinese Daytonas don’t count.

[johnwigan]

Originally Posted by the dark knight

So I guess the question is even if the bubble bursts, what is the new normal?

Normal is watches available again in display cases, new cars available as normal, PS5s available and so on and so on. People spending on travel and holidays and normal stuff. And governments and individuals living within their means. The amateur flippers/traders, who did what they had to do to survive the COVID years, doing something else as a side hustle.

It is not a 'new' normal, it is 'old' normal. Look at the last 100 years, not the last few years to see what the norm is. The 'this time it's different', 'its a new paradigm', 'new model', 'things have changed' is classic bubble delusion.

I fully expect ADs to have watches in display cases ready to sell to whoever walks through the door.

[David001]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

I fully expect ADs to have watches in display cases ready to sell to whoever walks through the door.

It depends what you mean by that, the cases won't be overflowing with big discounts.

The watch brands saw this coming, they will control inventory.
It's in their interest to burst the bubble because no one wants their product in an inherently volatile bubble, when it bursts it could sink the whole brand for years.

So they will control inventory and maintain a sensible flow in and out of ADs. This is why there has been a lot of movement in the management of ADs.

So you won't suddenly be able to walk into an AD and come out with a panda Daytona in a few weeks, but things will eventually go back to a more sustainable inventory control.

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by johnwigan

Normal is watches available again in display cases, new cars available as normal, PS5s available and so on and so on. People spending on travel and holidays and normal stuff. And governments and individuals living within their means. The amateur flippers/traders, who did what they had to do to survive the COVID years, doing something else as a side hustle.

It is not a 'new' normal, it is 'old' normal. Look at the last 100 years, not the last few years to see what the norm is. The 'this time it's different', 'its a new paradigm', 'new model', 'things have changed' is classic bubble delusion.

I fully expect ADs to have watches in display cases ready to sell to whoever walks through the door.

Wake me up when I can walk in to an AD as you suggest and grab that GMT blro and a White Daytona at or Below MSRP. I will be waiting. You all are delusional but sure hope we get back to those times. I have money waiting to spend.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

Wake me up when I can walk in to an AD as you suggest and grab that GMT blro and a White Daytona at or Below MSRP. I will be waiting. You all are delusional but sure hope we get back to those times. I have money waiting to spend.

I'm not picking on you or anything, but I'm curious, why didn't you do that when you could do it? I walked into an AD with a friend in 2017 during our lunch break and he walked out with a GMT at a discount, it was easy.

There are a lot of people saying that they would do it if it was possible, but it was possible just a few years ago and they didn't do it.
They only seem to want to do it now.

Maybe when they appear back in cases they'll have changed their minds again.

[steeevvvooo]

Originally Posted by Adam84

Interesting.



Watch finder in the U.K. have reduced their prices by maybe £1000 but nowhere near those levels.



Still way over the top…..they even have TAGs listed at over MSRP

Watchfinder UK are a joke. I recently asked for a price on my 2021 blue Overseas 4500v. They offered about £21k, despite having the chrono version, which is less popular, listed for £48k!

I've bought and sold a few things with them over the years but I don't see how they can be doing much business at the moment with current pricing.

Sent from my SM-S901B using Tapatalk

[grimps]

Any drop in prices is more due to the stupid recent inflation over the last 6 months , Rolex aren't producing many ore watches and there are millions more people wanting them.
The days of walking into a dealer off the street and walking out with a Sub or a GMT are not returning

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by David001

I'm not picking on you or anything, but I'm curious, why didn't you do that when you could do it? I walked into an AD with a friend in 2017 during our lunch break and he walked out with a GMT at a discount, it was easy.

There are a lot of people saying that they would do it if it was possible, but it was possible just a few years ago and they didn't do it.
They only seem to want to do it now.

Maybe when they appear back in cases they'll have changed their minds again.

Neither of those have ever been for sell when I have been shopping. Having said that over the last ten years I have purchased 2-black sub dates, 1-116610LV, 1-116660blue and 1-116613LB all at or below MSRP. I surely would have bought a Ceramic white Daytona but those were NEVER at or near or available at an AD since they have been released. None of the other AD's ever had the blro either.

[David001]

Originally Posted by grimps

Any drop in prices is more due to the stupid recent inflation over the last 6 months , Rolex aren't producing many ore watches and there are millions more people wanting them.
The days of walking into a dealer off the street and walking out with a Sub or a GMT are not returning

How do you logically explain that?

An economic situation that was inherently unstable resulted in inflation in some assets never previously seen in over a century. The unstable condition is reversing to a previously historically stable position, but you think that the unstable pricing bubble will remain even though the economic situation will not support it?

It's like someone in the 80's saying that interest rates will never go below 10% because things will never go back to normal.

[David001]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

Neither of those have ever been for sell when I have been shopping. Having said that over the last ten years I have purchased 2-black sub dates, 1-116610LV, 1-116660blue and 1-116613LB all at or below MSRP. I surely would have bought a Ceramic white Daytona but those were NEVER at or near or available at an AD since they have been released. None of the other AD's ever had the blro either.

Fair enough, I never had an issue, walked in and asked for a Daytona and one came in about a month or so. Other than that everything else was bought out of a display case when I walked in.

It's only in the last couple of years that I've ever waited for a mass produced stainless steel watch.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

A lazy argument to describe anyone who doesn't share your view. The high-profile watches which went up very fast are coming down, no denial. OTOH it doesn't seem to be true that ALL Rolexes are going down.

My crystal ball isn't working.

And you pop up again, feeling offended. It takes one to know one, right.

[grimps]

Originally Posted by David001

How do you logically explain that?

An economic situation that was inherently unstable resulted in inflation in some assets never previously seen in over a century. The unstable condition is reversing to a previously historically stable position, but you think that the unstable pricing bubble will remain even though the economic situation will not support it?

It's like someone in the 80's saying that interest rates will never go below 10% because things will never go back to normal.

But the demand is much higher than any other time in history and the production is still around the same number.
Millions more people around the world want these watches , they wont all suffer in an economic crises

[ts3]

Double post.

[ts3]

Originally Posted by grimps

But the demand is much higher than any other time in history and the production is still around the same number.
Millions more people around the world want these watches , they wont all suffer in an economic crises

Demand can evaporate for lots of reasons. Especially from all those who jumped on board in the last 5 years and even more so during Covid. I would not underestimate that watches as such can become a lot less cool again. After all there are lots of fun ways to burn cash and people can only spend it once. Do they want to get that boat, car, plane, or another Patek or PM Rolex? Priorities can shift no matter the economic outlook.

[usctrojan99]

I am seeing prices drop all across the board. But, you still have people clamoring for rolexes and APs who now feel this is a discount from the month prior. Prices are still ludicrous. Grey market dealers can hold firm all they want. I hope they ended up taking a bath when they realize they can't gouge people.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by grimps

Millions more people around the world want these watches , they wont all suffer in an economic crises

Likely not, but I'm positive if there are for example 100 people on a waiting list that at least 50 will pass in the current or soon to be economic climate. There is so much fluff on those lists.

I've seen kids sign up for a submariner. It's just putting your name on the list and in the previous months you could make some money getting that submariner. So it was a low risk. Now that profit is likely gone, no is willing to buy at 15-20k so what's there to gain?

A lot of people will also realize why on earth they were willing to spend 12-15k on a two tone watch.

[usctrojan99]

Originally Posted by grimps

But the demand is much higher than any other time in history and the production is still around the same number.
Millions more people around the world want these watches , they wont all suffer in an economic crises

If you think people aren't going to suffer, you haven't seen anything yet. We are going to see a complete decimation of value - in stock market, housing, across all asset classes etc. People are going to realize how inflated everything was for years....very soon. This includes the watch market. When a $8K watch is selling for $30K...

[temporarychicken]

Originally Posted by David001

I'm not picking on you or anything, but I'm curious, why didn't you do that when you could do it? I walked into an AD with a friend in 2017 during our lunch break and he walked out with a GMT at a discount, it was easy.

There are a lot of people saying that they would do it if it was possible, but it was possible just a few years ago and they didn't do it.
They only seem to want to do it now.

Maybe when they appear back in cases they'll have changed their minds again.

An incredibly good point. When you can walk in and buy stuff again that means there is no waiting list.

And when there is no waiting list... Supply exceeds demand!

And when supply exceeds demand, Greys offer discounts.

And people still don't buy as it's a watch bear market. 🐻

[David001]

Originally Posted by grimps

But the demand is much higher than any other time in history and the production is still around the same number.
Millions more people around the world want these watches , they wont all suffer in an economic crises

In this instance, the demand vs supply theory is overly simplistic.

I did consider a lengthy reply, but thought better of it.

I think it's enough to say that it would be unwise to bet that the luxury watch market is now somehow inexplicably fixed forever.

I remember in the 80's my dad complaining that interest rates were crazy and things would never go back to normal, but they did.

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Likely not, but I'm positive if there are for example 100 people on a waiting list that at least 50 will pass in the current or soon to be economic climate. There is so much fluff on those lists.

I've seen kids sign up for a submariner. It's just putting your name on the list and in the previous months you could make some money getting that submariner. So it was a low risk. Now that profit is likely gone, no is willing to buy at 15-20k so what's there to gain?

A lot of people will also realize why on earth they were willing to spend 12-15k on a two tone watch.

Agree on this. If there is no profit on buying from ADs, I guess more than 80% on the waitlist will be decline the allocation, especially PM pieces.

I don’t quite see the situation of ready stock at AD happening as they will continue to persist with current allocation model. However if no one or most people choose strictly not to buy anything above MSRP, watches will gradually become available. It’s hard to have everyones’ mind aligned though haha.

[Sandpit]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

A lazy argument to describe anyone who doesn't share your view. The high-profile watches which went up very fast are coming down, no denial. OTOH it doesn't seem to be true that ALL Rolexes are going down.

My crystal ball isn't working.

You’re really really boring me to be honest

[AD337]

Originally Posted by Slambonie

I was shopping for a daytona in manhattan summer of 2016. Went to many stores, daytonas were plentiful. Purchased at Wempe.

He meant stainless steel ceramic bezel Daytonas

[BillA]

Originally Posted by steeevvvooo

Watchfinder UK are a joke. I recently asked for a price on my 2021 blue Overseas 4500v. They offered about £21k, despite having the chrono version, which is less popular, listed for £48k!

I've bought and sold a few things with them over the years but I don't see how they can be doing much business at the moment with current pricing.

Sent from my SM-S901B using Tapatalk

They try to buy low.

[Frog7151]

Millions more people around the world want these watches , they wont all suffer in an economic crises[/QUOTE]

I am not disputing that there are millions worldwide who want Rolexes. I just wonder who is buying them and wearing them. Of course, this is all anecdotical, but last week I traveled out to San Diego for four days and I only spotted 4 Rolex watches. This included a 5hr layover in Denver. Most of the usual suspects that you would think who would be wearing luxury watches, pilots, businessmen and older men, were mostly wearing Smartwatches. In fact, Smartwatches were the most popular watches I spotted and no watch at all was second. Apple is making a fortune with their watch.

[Frog7151]

Originally Posted by David001

I'm not picking on you or anything, but I'm curious, why didn't you do that when you could do it? I walked into an AD with a friend in 2017 during our lunch break and he walked out with a GMT at a discount, it was easy.

There are a lot of people saying that they would do it if it was possible, but it was possible just a few years ago and they didn't do it.
They only seem to want to do it now.

Maybe when they appear back in cases they'll have changed their minds again.

I wish I would have. But all my play money was being sucked up by a 1969 Camaro restomod project.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by David001

I'm not picking on you or anything, but I'm curious, why didn't you do that when you could do it? I walked into an AD with a friend in 2017 during our lunch break and he walked out with a GMT at a discount, it was easy.

Which GMT, the black insert one I assume?