Prices not dropping?

[Rolexken]

Originally Posted by Adam84

Interesting.

Watch finder in the U.K. have reduced their prices by maybe £1000 but nowhere near those levels.

Still way over the top…..they even have TAGs listed at over MSRP

Watchfinder Uk panda steel Daytonas were about £50,000 now look today under £40,000

[Rolexken]

https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/Rolex/Daytona/watches

[Harry-57]

Originally Posted by David001

There are a lot of people saying that they would do it if it was possible, but it was possible just a few years ago and they didn't do it.

Maybe they were not in a suitable position to do it? Maybe they did? Plenty of us did. Polar in Feb '18 with a 15% discount, 13LB in November '18 with a 10% discount. All at MSRP since. I still ask for a discount. I sometimes get one, but not on a Rolex since 2019.

I asked for a SS BLRO the day after it was announced. None on display, no discounts. Milgauss, Polar and TT Bluesy were common in 2017 along with a variety of SS YMs. A couple of TT Daytonas on display at my AD and a 19LB in 2017. No SS subs in 2017 or since at my AD or any other I visited. The only GMT Master I've ever seen on display anywhere since 2017 was a TT CHNR.

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by Rolexken

https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/Rolex/Daytona/watches

Lots of overpolished junk…..

[Chester01]

Prices will drop. What we have here is the band continuing to play as the ship sinks my friends. The party is over. The conflict in Ukraine is going to last a long time, the incentive is too strong and greed to much and folks who peddle in oil/gas know what time it is and their days numbered and so they will continue to run things up indefinitely because they are too big to diversify and will stick with what they know, that will continue to drive inflation, and interest rates will continue to climb.

The era where people take loans out just to invest because they are "guaranteed" to make a profit over. The reality is, when people start paying what , 10, 20, 50 percent or more of their income for gas and oil to hear their homes they will realize that stuffing money into wrist watches was always a very silly idea, brought about by an overexubernt, pumped up market. There are many investors and even folks here who don't have enough years under their belt and have only seen things go one way. That's delusional. Sure the gray market will hype, insta snap or what ever to try to keep convincing people that the market is not dropping, their home values going down, and their retirement savings eaten alive by inflation, but its over folks. We all know it, its simply a matter of exactly when and how orderly that process will be. Wholesale inflation at 11%, diesel prices almost 2 bucks higher than regular gas (of course summer is always the excuse in the run to memorial day). There is 99,000 reasons to be concerned, and the gray market and insta/you tube folks have better have a good explanation as to why we need another watch.

I have been alive to see, that things head straight up before it falls. I can recall the bus tours given to investors in cape coral back oh around 2005-6ish and we all know how that party ended. At least those were real assets. I mean watches, come on. The only reason this hype train got started is that investors were making so much money and feeling bored and heavily invested in just about everything else they were simply looking for other things to park $$ in. I love watches, but its just silly and, time my friends just about up.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

You’re really really boring me to be honest

Mutually.

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

And you pop up again, feeling offended. It takes one to know one, right.

Now we have a mindreader, along with the folk who can see into the future.

What talented people we have on the forum.

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by Rolexken

Watchfinder Uk panda steel Daytonas were about £50,000 now look today under £40,000

Ahh thats interesting, wonder if the UK is lagging behind by a few days

Yeh youre right...35k seems like a steal right now lol....if Watchfinder who are notoriously priced highly are selling them for this....then hmmm interesting

I wonder what they bought these watches for? Did they buy them for say 30k and list them at 50k, so this is just eating into their profit, or did they buy at 40k and are now making a loss?

https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/Rolex/...95/item/219738

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Prices will drop. What we have here is the band continuing to play as the ship sinks my friends. The party is over. The conflict in Ukraine is going to last a long time, the incentive is too strong and greed to much and folks who peddle in oil/gas know what time it is and their days numbered and so they will continue to run things up indefinitely because they are too big to diversify and will stick with what they know, that will continue to drive inflation, and interest rates will continue to climb.

The era where people take loans out just to invest because they are "guaranteed" to make a profit over. The reality is, when people start paying what , 10, 20, 50 percent or more of their income for gas and oil to hear their homes they will realize that stuffing money into wrist watches was always a very silly idea, brought about by an overexubernt, pumped up market. There are many investors and even folks here who don't have enough years under their belt and have only seen things go one way. That's delusional. Sure the gray market will hype, insta snap or what ever to try to keep convincing people that the market is not dropping, their home values going down, and their retirement savings eaten alive by inflation, but its over folks. We all know it, its simply a matter of exactly when and how orderly that process will be. Wholesale inflation at 11%, diesel prices almost 2 bucks higher than regular gas (of course summer is always the excuse in the run to memorial day). There is 99,000 reasons to be concerned, and the gray market and insta/you tube folks have better have a good explanation as to why we need another watch.

I have been alive to see, that things head straight up before it falls. I can recall the bus tours given to investors in cape coral back oh around 2005-6ish and we all know how that party ended. At least those were real assets. I mean watches, come on. The only reason this hype train got started is that investors were making so much money and feeling bored and heavily invested in just about everything else they were simply looking for other things to park $$ in. I love watches, but its just silly and, time my friends just about up.

Well youre a chearful bloke

[thenewrick]

Going to preface this by saying David seems like a normal guy just trying to make a buck for himself and his family business. But David Khalil’s YouTube has been one of the pinnacles of this moment in time.

It started during the hype craze, focused on hype pieces and high end gemset stuff, talked about Watched as investments, pivoted into lifestyle entertainment with vacations and cars content, got a fancy EDM intro video that’s 20 seconds long for 2 minute long videos, with recent video saying price drop was temporary in April due to Easter holiday travels. I feel like the poor guy tried so hard to be hip with the times. Again, nothing against him and I’m sure he’s doing very well financially. It’s just one of those moment in time things. He also says everything is “absolutely stunning”. He said he met a guy and that the guy was “absolutely stunning”.

I almost wanna delete this post because it seems mean but it’s all in good fun. It’s just like ragging on bell bottom and disco in the 80s. Can’t fault folks for being trendy and trying hard.

That video on the price dip being a temporary Easter thing from last month won’t age well. Or maybe my predictions that have all seem to have come true won’t age well. We’ll see. I think it’s because I’m an old time realistic and slightly pessimistic about short term trends lasting long term. I was a crypto/nft/meme skeptic all along and felt like I had called that completely wrong, until now.

Im looking forward to things going back to normal myself. Bummer for the folks who lost a few bux on luxury goods and high risk speculation. But lesson learned. And those folks tend to be rich anyways so they’ll be fine.

Everyday the watches drop another 1% that’s another guy off the waiting list who just wanted to flip for me. So burn baby burn. I wanna see prices crash to the ground. Don’t care about what mine are worth at all. No plans to sell.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by Adam84

Ahh thats interesting, wonder if the UK is lagging behind by a few days

Yeh youre right...35k seems like a steal right now lol....if Watchfinder who are notoriously priced highly are selling them for this....then hmmm interesting

I wonder what they bought these watches for? Did they buy them for say 30k and list them at 50k, so this is just eating into their profit, or did they buy at 40k and are now making a loss?

https://www.watchfinder.co.uk/Rolex/...95/item/219738

In my own experience the UK and US watch markets are very, very different Adam.

By all means the UK secondary pricing may soften a little but the Grey market here is really not a prime mover in respect of the kind of volumes that it is in the US market. And UK Rolex AD's are still getting less stock year on year and with demand (be that wholly genuine and/or from flippers) being simply huge still.

"Watchfinder" are the "Webuyanycar" of the watch market and educated buyers/sellers rarely use them for the Rolex brand in my view.

And even if a Steel Ceramic Daytona is listed at £50,000/£40,000/£35,000 etc it is at MSRP a £11,600 watch and will continue to be a huge over list product for buyers that cannot buy at MSRP.

As a leave piece, I'd also respectfully suggest that watch forums are, in reality, a fairly small micro view of the wider, larger watch market but as enthusiasts we perhaps forget that?!

[Time Out]

Lots of newly minted pieces being listed this morning by flippers and nobody is buying.
They are getting desperate ! Crickets in the comments.

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by GW44

In my own experience the UK and US watch markets are very, very different Adam.

By all means the UK secondary pricing may soften a little but the Grey market here is really not a prime mover in respect of the kind of volumes that it is in the US market. And UK Rolex AD's are still getting less stock year on year and with demand (be that wholly genuine and/or from flippers) being simply huge still.

"Watchfinder" are the "Webuyanycar" of the watch market and educated buyers/sellers rarely use them for the Rolex brand in my view.

And even if a Steel Ceramic Daytona is listed at £50,000/£40,000/£35,000 etc it is at MSRP a £11,600 watch and will continue to be a huge over list product for buyers that cannot buy at MSRP.

As a leave piece, I'd also respectfully suggest that watch forums are, in reality, a fairly small micro view of the wider, larger watch market but as enthusiasts we perhaps forget that?!

Very true that. I think we all forget that there is a bigger world out there, its always interesting to see how things are going either side of the pond.

[amh]

Originally Posted by Chester01

Prices will drop. What we have here is the band continuing to play as the ship sinks my friends. The party is over. The conflict in Ukraine is going to last a long time, the incentive is too strong and greed to much and folks who peddle in oil/gas know what time it is and their days numbered and so they will continue to run things up indefinitely because they are too big to diversify and will stick with what they know, that will continue to drive inflation, and interest rates will continue to climb.

The era where people take loans out just to invest because they are "guaranteed" to make a profit over. The reality is, when people start paying what , 10, 20, 50 percent or more of their income for gas and oil to hear their homes they will realize that stuffing money into wrist watches was always a very silly idea, brought about by an overexubernt, pumped up market. There are many investors and even folks here who don't have enough years under their belt and have only seen things go one way. That's delusional. Sure the gray market will hype, insta snap or what ever to try to keep convincing people that the market is not dropping, their home values going down, and their retirement savings eaten alive by inflation, but its over folks. We all know it, its simply a matter of exactly when and how orderly that process will be. Wholesale inflation at 11%, diesel prices almost 2 bucks higher than regular gas (of course summer is always the excuse in the run to memorial day). There is 99,000 reasons to be concerned, and the gray market and insta/you tube folks have better have a good explanation as to why we need another watch.

I have been alive to see, that things head straight up before it falls. I can recall the bus tours given to investors in cape coral back oh around 2005-6ish and we all know how that party ended. At least those were real assets. I mean watches, come on. The only reason this hype train got started is that investors were making so much money and feeling bored and heavily invested in just about everything else they were simply looking for other things to park $$ in. I love watches, but its just silly and, time my friends just about up.

Thank you. I'm still seeing some of the 'big' greys post TT CHNRs close to 30k and Daytonas close to 50k... but there's a whole other set of people selling for far less. I'd have to think even the well organized dealers must eventually follow the trend - they just don't want to cause panic.

It's a bad time to buy but a good time to wait
(Not expecting any calls/texts from my AD however, I still get offered jewelry the minute I walk in the door)

[Goin2drt]

Can someone please tell literally every seller on TRF that prices are dropping. All are still asking close to (maybe a grand lower) than they have been for weeks. They all did not get the memo yet.

[Alex369]

Maybe this has already been pointed out (I haven't read the entire thread), but the best indication for where prices are headed is NOT the current prices listed by big grey dealers, but the prices these dealers are offering for purchase...if you want to know what a watch is "worth" just call up a grey and offer to sell them one...

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

Can someone please tell literally every seller on TRF that prices are dropping. All are still asking close to (maybe a grand lower) than they have been for weeks. They all did not get the memo yet.

Ask for an offer on your WG sub and see what they pay (or not).

[Webster2281]

wouldnt periodically checking DavidSW's offerings give one a good idea about the direction of prices and the market?

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Ask for an offer on your WG sub and see what they pay (or not).

I already did and I already answered you on your last comment. $1800 more than I paid and it is worn and scratched.

[Goin2drt]

Originally Posted by Webster2281

wouldnt periodically checking DavidSW's offerings give one a good idea about the direction of prices and the market?

No apparently even though he is one of the largest grays out there his pricing is artificial. Just go back several pages. You are supposed to ignore all his prices and transactions.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by ajw45

Sounds about right. LOL at the greys talking about how prices will even out from here and now is a great time to buy. Everyone talking about supply and demand seems to ignore the fact that the Rolex factory is still running and every year they ship more than the year before. Another million+ watches available at MSRP being pushed into a world where the single biggest market is closed. People like to say MSRP doesn't matter, the real price is the market price. I think a million watches available new at MSRP matters kinda alot, the real price is MSRP.

Amazing how times have changed. It wasn’t long ago that a million watches a year was a drop in the bucket compared to the hundreds of millions of people that now want and can afford a Rolex. Now that same million is flooding the market!


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[thenewrick]

Lots of confusion about what a price actually means. DSWs price is not my price is not your price.

First ask yourself who’s price matters to you. Then look into the data. Otherwise you’ll just be confusing yourself and talking in circles.

Prices from big Greys are down a little(DSW, Watchbox etc). Prices from you are down big(individuals who try to sell to Greys, flippers etc). Prices wholesale and in trading circles are down big,(moda, Facebook group, private sales).

What affects demand at an AD is not the Grey sales price, it’s the other two prices. Greys can list for whatever they want and auction houses can sell whatever price they want. But that doesn’t affect what you as a forum poster can see in the value of your own watch. They have overhead and reputation and post sale assurances all of which you don’t have.

Gotta stop looking at c24 and Greys and auction houses for accurate pricing. The most accurate price you’ll get is an actual quote and not theoretical games.

Find a buyer, see what they will pay, that’s your real price.

The topic of the thread is about individual owner prices dropping not asking prices on C24 or auction houses or Greys. The original post was actually commenting on this exact thing. How prices for owners and wholesale/trading/private party are all crashing but asking prices/auctions at Grey and auction house are little changed.

Hopefully this clears everything up and answers all the questions? Anymore questions?

If you’re wondering when prices will stabilize, either do the leg work yourself and continue to get quotes over time until the quotes stop going down, or just see what other folks are paying on forum/wholesale.

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by 1665fan

Lots of overpolished junk…..

+1!
Just a minor point that’s often overlooked and can be so misleading. 50k now 40k! Was the 50k watch unworn? Now if in fact the same 50k watch is now a 40k watch that’s different.


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[Adam84]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

+1!
Just a minor point that’s often overlooked and can be so misleading. 50k now 40k! Was the 50k watch unworn? Now if in fact the same 50k watch is now a 40k watch that’s different.


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And the 2021 black ceramic Daytona that’s listed at 36k?

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by QuelleHeureEstIl

Where are we?

It's clear from a lot of replies that we are still in the "denial" phase.

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Goin2drt

Can someone please tell literally every seller on TRF that prices are dropping. All are still asking close to (maybe a grand lower) than they have been for weeks. They all did not get the memo yet.

There is a big incentive to freeze and not panic. I mean they are holding huge inventory and lots of $$ at steak and can present an existential threat if things really get bad (ie 2008 bad). They will continue to stay the course while the market continues its decline in the background. Once they start dropping, it will be a domino effect, and the concern being lots of folks (not grays) that bought for investment also begin to unload as they are likely dumping stock, it can saturate the market. So there is big, big incentive to pretend all is well. At some point people will check their portfolio values and the game will be up.


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[Frog7151]

Be interesting to see where this ends up.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/16546879907...MAAOSwm5FidEwC

[Tavli3]

Originally Posted by Chester01

There is a big incentive to freeze and not panic. I mean they are holding huge inventory and lots of $$ at steak and can present an existential threat if things really get bad (ie 2008 bad). They will continue to stay the course while the market continues its decline in the background. Once they start dropping, it will be a domino effect, and the concern being lots of folks (not grays) that bought for investment also begin to unload as they are likely dumping stock, it can saturate the market. So there is big, big incentive to pretend all is well. At some point people will check their portfolio values and the game will be up.


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The unloading has started. Ceramic Daytonas for sale on C24 increases everyday. Few months ago numbers were in the low 500s now approaching 900!


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[minute_man]

Originally Posted by Frog7151

Be interesting to see where this ends up.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/16546879907...MAAOSwm5FidEwC

Only 1 photo and not of a 126610. Just saying...

[Chester01]

Originally Posted by Tavli3

The unloading has started. Ceramic Daytonas for sale on C24 increases everyday. Few months ago numbers were in the low 500s now approaching 900!


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Wow. I wonder if that’s also the case with subs/gmt


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