Prices not dropping?

[Ichiran]

Originally Posted by Mattt

Get in line those Pateks are mine

There will be no line in 3 months' time according to the gurus here. We can get any watch we want at MSRP or below then, including those lovely Pateks, just like the old days. Happy are those who save up for times like that. Bookmark your calendar

[David001]

Originally Posted by Ichiran

There will be no line in 3 months' time according to the gurus here. We can get any watch we want at MSRP or below then, including those lovely Pateks, just like the old days. Happy are those who save up for times like that.

It won't go back to normal in 3 months, too many people highly invested and too big a market to simply flick a light switch. It'll be back to normal towards the end of next year.

[ajw45]

Originally Posted by mulberry083

The Watchbox sales price isn't that low (for example a new Hesalite Speedy is listed at $6350 after discount). That being said, some folks on Youtube have mentioned that Watchbox is biting at some relatively aggressive make an offer bids, which supports your statement.

Agree, the sale (up to $2k off) isn't huge. The bigger significance is the breadth - everything, not just hype pieces - and that WB which just raised $165MM is not trying to hold the line on pricing. They have the capital to weather a downturn or seasonal slowness so they aren't in danger of going anywhere and could try to hold prices but they aren't. If they are lowering prices across the board my interpretation of that is they don't see this as a short term dip but a longer term revaluation. The big greys only just flinched this week, this is still just the beginning of the slide.

[SeaDweller50]

Originally Posted by Notepad12

Just had an email from Watchfinder announcing they have lowered prices

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They’re always lowering their prices. I get that email every month.

[KeithP]

Originally Posted by David001

Even though I own six figures worth of watches I want inflation to fall significantly.

I want watch prices to fall off a cliff, so that enthusiasts can buy them. I want food to be a lot cheaper so that people can eat well. I want energy prices to be lower so people can heat their water and homes.
I want this crazy inflation bubble to fall.

You just want your 5712 to be worth as much as possible and you're on here day after day doggedly trying to convince everyone that watch prices aren't going down.

Before you go making unpleasant accusations at humanity you should reflect on your own motivations.

Beautifully put. Thank you.

[dommasters]

Originally Posted by Sandpit

That Kermit would have been a terrific buy for somebody

It was like new. Obviously I expected more £££ but that was all that it bid to.

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by EEpro

I've only seen a small % decrease in ask in the major dealers but I can tell you purchase offers are down 40% from last month.

Everyone here is talking about "Moda" prices, AKA wholesale prices. That is down, it takes time for these "cheaper" watches to hit the market through your favorite dealer.

Yes the dealers will offer less right now, as they need to charge less on the retail side going forward.

[dkg1616]

MODA isn’t really wholesale…it’s just a network where dealers sell on Facebook. No different than buying and selling on here. Just need to know how to buy and sell. Guys like David SW are just able to command the premium price because of established history, brick and mortar and a real website / app.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by David001

It won't go back to normal in 3 months, too many people highly invested and too big a market to simply flick a light switch. It'll be back to normal towards the end of next year.

Genuinely interested in your definition of "back to normal" please David.

[GB-man]

[beshannon]

Originally Posted by GW44

Genuinely interested in your definition of "back to normal" please David.

I have tried asking this very question and no one will ever answer

[Mathematoxic]

Originally Posted by Solo118

Everyone here is talking about "Moda" prices, AKA wholesale prices. That is down, it takes time for these "cheaper" watches to hit the market through your favorite dealer.

Yes the dealers will offer less right now, as they need to charge less on the retail side going forward.

MODA’s prices are probably just slightly below market asking prices. MODA’s auction sometimes offers a better pricing. They have a paid club where dealers/traders buy/sell at even lower. I guess it’s some 20 to 30% below market asking prices

[2loaded]

Anyone else (non-flipper) enjoying the FS section as of late?

[GW44]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I have tried asking this very question and no one will ever answer

One can try Brian. And bookmark as required…..

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I have tried asking this very question and no one will ever answer

Originally Posted by GW44

One can try Brian. And bookmark as required…..

I have answered Brian before. This is my definition of "normal," and I think most would agree.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...&postcount=414

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by beshannon

I have tried asking this very question and no one will ever answer

I too would like an answer. So I am going to repeat your question for the audience who has been hanging on this thread like flies to molasses.

WHAT EXACTLY IS NORMAL?

Any takers?

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

I too would like an answer. So I am going to repeat your question for the audience who has been hanging on this thread like flies to molasses.

WHAT EXACTLY IS NORMAL?

Any takers?

see post right above yours.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by rolex16

I have answered Brian before. This is my definition of "normal," and I think most would agree.

https://www.rolexforums.com/showpost...&postcount=414

Ok, clicked the link and here it was.

I’ll answer. Normal is when you can get a watch for MSRP from your AD within 6 months, other than SS Daytona. Grey price is +/-10% of MSRP depending on the watch. So if you want a GMT now, you pay 10% over MSRP. I might even stretch it to 20%. Not more.

Thanks!

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Ok, clicked the link and here it was.

I’ll answer. Normal is when you can get a watch for MSRP from your AD within 6 months, other than SS Daytona. Grey price is +/-10% of MSRP depending on the watch. So if you want a GMT now, you pay 10% over MSRP. I might even stretch it to 20%. Not more.

Thanks!

Yep. My opinion only, but I think that would represent a reasonable "normal" situation.

[mwatchguy]

What about Rolex discontinued models? What kind of premium would be acceptable for them?

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[rolex16]

Originally Posted by ip20171

What about Rolex discontinued models? What kind of premium would be acceptable for them?

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You are basically talking about the vintage market at that point and the price is set by the seller/market based on condition, rarity, age, originality of parts, model, etc. This is how vintage works, precisely because there are no new watches being produced, so there is a finite supply of watches, esp. the more you specify what you want. If you want a GMT 1675 small arrow, unpolished, etc., that will be very different from a 16710 polished. That is not the same as cookie cutter ceramic models that basically all look the same, have been produced in, say, the last 5 years, and are coming off the assembly line looking pretty much the same today as they did 5 years ago.

[Al1969]

Originally Posted by 2loaded

Anyone else (non-flipper) enjoying the FS section as of late?

Increase of listings and many sellers willing to entertain BRO(Best reasonable offer). Perhaps it’s a dash to the exits.

[christian-h]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

I too would like an answer. So I am going to repeat your question for the audience who has been hanging on this thread like flies to molasses.

WHAT EXACTLY IS NORMAL?

Any takers?

A capitalistic model is not normal when a brand is beeing cut out of most of the profit. I would argue that normal is when you can purchase an item from a brand, at their asking price.

[amh]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Yep. My opinion only, but I think that would represent a reasonable "normal" situation.

Yes, exactly. Much like buying a car.

No need to buy worthless jewelry or Omegas. And no need to buy flowers, chocolates or bottles of scotch for the AD. (Yes, some do that )

[RUSH2689]

Originally Posted by amh

Yes, exactly. Much like buying a car.

No need to buy worthless jewelry or Omegas. And no need to buy flowers, chocolates or bottles of scotch for the AD. (Yes, some do that )

Talking about “omegas” like that…

Tsk tsk

[mwatchguy]

Originally Posted by rolex16

You are basically talking about the vintage market at that point and the price is set by the seller/market based on condition, rarity, age, originality of parts, model, etc. This is how vintage works, precisely because there are no new watches being produced, so there is a finite supply of watches, esp. the more you specify what you want. If you want a GMT 1675 small arrow, unpolished, etc., that will be very different from a 16710 polished. That is not the same as cookie cutter ceramic models that basically all look the same, have been produced in, say, the last 5 years, and are coming off the assembly line looking pretty much the same today as they did 5 years ago.

Makes sense for Vintage. But what about the recently discontinued models such as the hulk and the Sea-Dweller 4000?

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[rolex16]

Originally Posted by ip20171

Makes sense for Vintage. But what about the recently discontinued models such as the hulk and the Sea-Dweller 4000?

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Probably similar type of situation, but maybe with less variability of pricing and maybe less extreme drift from original MSRP depending on how recently discontinued. In recent discontinued cases, last MSRP can serve as a decent reference point, and condition will not vary as wildly since examples have not had such long lives, as many services, etc.


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[beshannon]

Originally Posted by mountainjogger

Ok, clicked the link and here it was.

I’ll answer. Normal is when you can get a watch for MSRP from your AD within 6 months, other than SS Daytona. Grey price is +/-10% of MSRP depending on the watch. So if you want a GMT now, you pay 10% over MSRP. I might even stretch it to 20%. Not more.

Thanks!

MSRP from which year?

Again, no one can or will ever answer this question.

[Danny83]

Originally Posted by AbeFroman

Moda’s and the other WhatsApp group prices are about a week ahead of the large secondary outlets. Most folks don’t seem to understand this.

Moda is good because it allows transparency in what things are selling for unlike other avenues.


Correct. That’s what caused a majority of these explosive gains on some of the hyped references just this year. Hardly any were actually reaching end users.

Watch Eric said in his YouTube video a few weeks back that he never sold a 116500 over $50k to an end user. All the others were simply between dealers.

They should ban you from those groups since all you do is kick tires all day

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by beshannon

MSRP from which year?

Again, no one can or will ever answer this question.

How can you say no one will answer? I have answered you before, and I will answer you again here. Final model MSRP before discontinuation for the neovintage example. For current production, current MSRP.