Prices not dropping?

[1665fan]

Originally Posted by socalsean

I look forward to seeing some two toned DJs and Cellinis available for sale at ADs.

And women’s DJ!!!!! It will be awesome

[thenewrick]

I think the 2 major changes will be 50% shorter wait on wait lists. 50% lower offers from Greys on your references. Collectors will still collect. It'll just be the end of quick flips for most references.

[jarecki]

Originally Posted by Time Out

Lots of newly minted pieces being listed this morning by flippers and nobody is buying.
They are getting desperate ! Crickets in the comments.

Why did this guy get banned?

[Biogentic85]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

I’ll add my two cents, I have two highly sought after Rolex references, I’ve spoken to over a dozen known and highly regarded Grey’s. 90% outright refused to purchase anything period, the remainder that did offered to buy one SS sports model at 3k over MSRP (meanwhile it’s for sale on their site for the 20’s). Another all gold model at 5k UNDER MSRP.

If you are buying a watch from a grey, you’re a fool for paying asking.

/rant.

wonder which sports ref that they willing to buy over 3k msrp?

[GB-man]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

I think the 2 major changes will be 50% shorter wait on wait lists. 50% lower offers from Greys on your references. Collectors will still collect. It'll just be the end of quick flips for most references.

He posted a video of himself dancing in front of a mirror like buffalo bill in silence of the lambs. Possible that was someone else. Don’t quote me.

[Webster2281]

I think it’s interesting that Rolex prices skyrocketed during a worldwide shutdown, but are now softening due to this current slowdown.

[bezler]

Originally Posted by cfidentification

Hello All,



I have watched (pun intended) this forum for several years. This particular thread caught my attention, and I just finally could not help myself. I am not a professional economist, but I have been involved, like many of you, in various endeavors where there was a transition from collector passion and interest to an investment opportunity. When the dealers take over, it essentially ruins the subject because the passion leaves and the $$$ take over.



I am sure some of you have done the same, I have kept a spreadsheet going back some years where I tracked certain Rolex indexes. I recorded certain key indicators such as the MSRP, “gray market” asking prices from various sources across the web and in person, rough sale price, and, perhaps the most interesting aspect- the turnover ratio. Another interesting piece of data revealed those indexes which were poor buys for the flipper or gray marketeer- where the estimated profit on the flip was practically nil or the turnaround time was too long for too little a return. To keep it clean only certain Rolexes were tracked, and the watches were consistent- complete kits with box, papers, and so forth. There are some estimations taken since we cannot know what the exact gray sale price was, nor the actual turnover date, so we use the best estimate we have; nothing is perfect. I am sure you all would agree, at least on the Rolex Forums the discounting on stale listings tends to be just a few hundred dollars at best, minuscule in a deal typically exceeding over $10k on the low end.



We all know there are retail buyers from the AD which are at an advantage over others. For example, I believe the sales tax rate in Manhattan is about 8.875%. Clearly this puts someone in Anchorage, Alaska at a 0% rate at a clear economic advantage on a possible flip. Yes, there is a Rolex AD in Anchorage. This could be well over a 1k of leverage in the seller’s favor.



So, here are the facts:



The era of cheap money is coming to an end. Interest rates in the United States are increasing and will likely continue to trend upwards. The published WSJ Prime Rate as of May 13th stands at 4.00% currently, it was 3.25% a year ago. The Fed discount rate is now 1.00, it was .25 a year ago. See a trend? Obviously large purchases are made easier with cheap money which creditors are eager to lend. Look at how hot RV and boat sales were, fueled by the cheap money but as interest rates climb, that $100,000+ boat or RV is not as cheap anymore. If you bought a Rolex on a flip, floating easy credit and low interest, well, that is changing. People I know in the car, RV, and airplane business all agree it is starting to slow, some say a lot, some say a tad- all say starting to slow down. Look at introductory rates on new credit cards, or those with a variable rate, the rates are climbing. Worried about used car prices? These should start to settle, the repo business is getting busier, I know people in the business.



Inflation in the United States is understated. No matter what the talking heads say about it, they are bending the inflation calculation to keep it low for the news. Gas went up some 20 cents a gallon in a matter of hours just days ago where I am. Look at basic essential living expenses, all going up with no end in sight. Proposed billions more just handed to whomever in the Ukraine on the horizon will make this worse, along with other policies. Having a nice watch on your wrist means nothing when you cannot make your essential living expenses. If that timepiece is financed, well that is one of those first expenses which will have to be jettisoned in belt tightening.



China lockdowns, war in Ukraine with no end in sight, frozen Russian monies, uncertainties with European economies, and general instabilities all cannot be excluded from consideration affecting Rolex internationally. Put as much weight on any and all of them as you wish.



FACT WITH SOME OPINION- For people with disposable incomes, I agree with the YouTuber, people want to get out and travel, the numbers for airlines, hotel rooms, and so forth justify this assertion. Money will flow toward experiences more so than toward watches and the like.



Rolex is in business and actively producing new watches every day. We can speculate as to the volume or this index is made more than that index. I am not calling markets on vintage or high demand indexes which are out of production. But even though Rolex has increased the MSRP on their current catalog, these watches are in production. FACT- the undeniable force of supply and demand. For any number of reasons demand was high resulting in wait lists and such, and supply was short. Rolex rolled out new indexes, and people reach deep to be the first to have that newest model, spare money, you name it. However, eventually the supply will catch the demand. Look at the watches being offered on the gray market- many, if not most, have warranty cards dated within days, weeks, or maybe months before being offered for sale. One can always claim buyer remorse, angry spouse, or a bad economic spin to get out of your brand-new unworn Rolex, but likely these were purchased with the intention of flipping. The appetite of the true buyer/wearer, flipper/speculators, and secondhand dealers will eventually have to get satisfied because you do run out of market, and people run out of money. Once you start holding inventory time is not on your side, you must keep them moving, so discounting to whatever degree is almost inevitable because you must meet your costs. Remember- a business is not a museum; things are there to buy not to just admire; so, passing on offers which keep cash coming in is still cash flow toward the business. Its great if you can be in business and have the luxury of not selling anything and keeping your doors open, let me know your secret. You can have hubris, but your inventory will be liquidated at a considerable discount as part of closing the business.



I considered numerous sources for a good triangulation and more accurate data. On May 12th I saw a large Rolex re-seller on eBay discounted most, if not all, their catalog offerings 9-15%. These discounts are still reflecting an overinflated price in my opinion, but you see the downward trend. Main point- prices are not going up, ebay has a worldwide presence, and certain guarantees to ease the sale, and activity on the listing is transparent, you can see it; you don’t see a shortage of listings and you certainly do not see Rolexes being hotly contested.



Consider this real example- the Milgauss 116400GV was not the fastest mover out there but has been one of the shooting stars starting late 2021 and into 2022, probably because of the relatively low price point and relative obscurity against the newest indexes. Speculations about it being discontinued the last several years have probably helped too. In December 2021 the MSRP was $8,300; I saw ads listing them as high as $20k, wow over 100% markup, lots of listings in the 15k range. I watched listings stalled out and going stale at $12,000. I did see a sale at $12,250.00 (approximately). So here we are now in May, 2022- five months later. MSRP now up to $9,150.00. C24 has NIB Milgauss offerings at $15K, with a sprinkling around the mid to high $13,000s here and there. There is one listed for $14,295 on Bobswatches. There is a posting on eBay at $12,592, which is about as low as I see. Talk about a range, we are talking a difference of over $7k from the observed high to low from different sources- now what does that tell you about uncertainty and how solid the “market value” of this particular index is. In this instance, it is obvious someone has picked a price point where they are comfortable moving it.



So, if I paid $12,595 on eBay, and we are assuming it is an authentic piece of course but this goes without saying. At full MSRP, NIB from an AD out the door would run me $9750, the difference of some $2840 in markup, nearly 30%. Remember about the differentials in sales tax, not to mention a modest markup paid to each set of hands this watch is passing thru, it doesn’t leave much room. Ideally, a person puts themselves on the list, walks in, pays for their watch and goes out the door, flipping it before their credit card payment is due for a quick thousand or so. The gray market dealer of course goes up from there.



In another example, consider the Submariner 124060. In December 2021 the MSRP stood at $8100. It’s now up to $8950. Most buyers from an AD would be below $10k out the door at MSRP with a reasonable allowance for taxes. Back in December 2021 I saw listings asking as high as $20k, the lowest was about $13.5k. There are some lists well over that now, approaching 24-25k; now that is optimism. You can find current listings on the low end asking the high 12k’s, with most offerings between $14k to $15k. So what does this mean? Essentially, there are listings which are expecting you to pay up over 200% markup for the privilege. But, no matter what the charts plot, if we had askings on gray market 124060’s, we still have listings in the same general price range, give or take, we had in December, right? You would expect, aside from the outliers on the high-end prices would have naturally continued to climb, but this does not seem to be the case, any gain is marginal, at best. This brings us back to supply and demand, you can ask whatever price you want, and we can all price our product within a few hundred of each other to see whose moves first, but because there are plenty of active sales around, there is no shortage; there is just too much than a prospective person is willing to pay. In December 2021 I saw a sale in the high $12000’s, suggesting that was the “just price”, the intersection where buyer and seller are good with the deal. So, if that was the “just market price” five months ago, how do we reckon the askings today? We can be reasonably assured there have been a lot of AD sold 124060’s in the last five months and plenty of those have appeared on the 2nd hand market, meaning there were still a lot of speculative buyers, not wearers cleaning the AD’s out. I am confident there is still quite a bit of stale inventory starting to sit, so again, the demand cup is likely full, but the facet keeps running.



So let’s look at some of the confounding variables here. We can reasonably presume certain listings are simply click bait listings. Some are going to frauds attempting to scam someone out of money when no such watch actually exists. There are offerings which I also deem click bait because they are high water mark prices and the offering is legit, its just that someone is in no hurry to sell and would just simply sell for the right price, but they are not motivated and would be okay if it never sold, but it would for the right price. Furthermore, we cannot exclude certain regional factors as well. Until recently it was customary to do business across state lines to avoid sales tax, again, a real net savings to the buyer. It also stands to reason that fixed and variable business costs differ from place to place, and overhead is a lot higher in some places. Of course there are underserved markets as well. If you do not have an AD in your area, then you have to deal with a reseller unless you plan to travel where there are AD's, and hope luck is on your side. Is there a new generation of enthusiasts which actually places a value on the brand of Rolex or any other brand for that matter.



So its not all doom and gloom. There will always be that high end clientele whom neither monies asked nor economies affect. There will be certain Rolexes which remain in high demand and will buck the general trends of what we discussed here. Rolexes will always be worth something, what that something is remains the debate. The other night I was in a well established brick and mortar jeweler (Not a Rolex AD) in a very hot area. They had a nice selection of pre-owned Rolexes but I felt their pricing was too high, which was not greeted too well by the salesperson, who could not have disagreed with me more- their advice- buy now before the price goes up. Well the price may go up, as a singular matter of fact, but that does not mean it will sell. In the months ahead someone will be right, and someone will be wrong.

Your occupation is listed as "writer"?????

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by sudo_root

I’ll add my two cents, I have two highly sought after Rolex references, I’ve spoken to over a dozen known and highly regarded Grey’s. 90% outright refused to purchase anything period, the remainder that did offered to buy one SS sports model at 3k over MSRP (meanwhile it’s for sale on their site for the 20’s). Another all gold model at 5k UNDER MSRP.

If you are buying a watch from a grey, you’re a fool for paying asking.

/rant.

Interesting

5k under MSRP? Was it a YG DayDate?

Regardless I wonder what the market for DayDates in general could turn out to be. A D’s will never ever ever ever ever sell under MSRP again but in 2020 you could find BNIB 228238’s for asking mid 30’s. Even with a diamond dial.

Point being is if the new ask for a 228238 is a few thousand over MSRP what would even be the interest for a Grey being I’d imagine there buy figure is just that, MSRP. Or maybe my math and hypotheses is way wrong

[underpar]

Originally Posted by cfidentification

Hello All,

I have watched (pun intended) this forum for several years. This particular thread caught my attention, and I just finally could not help myself. I am not a professional economist, but I have been involved, like many of you, in various endeavors where there was a transition from collector passion and interest to an investment opportunity. When the dealers take over, it essentially ruins the subject because the passion leaves and the $$$ take over.

I am sure some of you have done the same, I have kept a spreadsheet going back some years where I tracked certain Rolex indexes. I recorded certain key indicators such as the MSRP, “gray market” asking prices from various sources across the web and in person, rough sale price, and, perhaps the most interesting aspect- the turnover ratio. Another interesting piece of data revealed those indexes which were poor buys for the flipper or gray marketeer- where the estimated profit on the flip was practically nil or the turnaround time was too long for too little a return. To keep it clean only certain Rolexes were tracked, and the watches were consistent- complete kits with box, papers, and so forth. There are some estimations taken since we cannot know what the exact gray sale price was, nor the actual turnover date, so we use the best estimate we have; nothing is perfect. I am sure you all would agree, at least on the Rolex Forums the discounting on stale listings tends to be just a few hundred dollars at best, minuscule in a deal typically exceeding over $10k on the low end.

We all know there are retail buyers from the AD which are at an advantage over others. For example, I believe the sales tax rate in Manhattan is about 8.875%. Clearly this puts someone in Anchorage, Alaska at a 0% rate at a clear economic advantage on a possible flip. Yes, there is a Rolex AD in Anchorage. This could be well over a 1k of leverage in the seller’s favor.

So, here are the facts:

The era of cheap money is coming to an end. Interest rates in the United States are increasing and will likely continue to trend upwards. The published WSJ Prime Rate as of May 13th stands at 4.00% currently, it was 3.25% a year ago. The Fed discount rate is now 1.00, it was .25 a year ago. See a trend? Obviously large purchases are made easier with cheap money which creditors are eager to lend. Look at how hot RV and boat sales were, fueled by the cheap money but as interest rates climb, that $100,000+ boat or RV is not as cheap anymore. If you bought a Rolex on a flip, floating easy credit and low interest, well, that is changing. People I know in the car, RV, and airplane business all agree it is starting to slow, some say a lot, some say a tad- all say starting to slow down. Look at introductory rates on new credit cards, or those with a variable rate, the rates are climbing. Worried about used car prices? These should start to settle, the repo business is getting busier, I know people in the business.

Inflation in the United States is understated. No matter what the talking heads say about it, they are bending the inflation calculation to keep it low for the news. Gas went up some 20 cents a gallon in a matter of hours just days ago where I am. Look at basic essential living expenses, all going up with no end in sight. Proposed billions more just handed to whomever in the Ukraine on the horizon will make this worse, along with other policies. Having a nice watch on your wrist means nothing when you cannot make your essential living expenses. If that timepiece is financed, well that is one of those first expenses which will have to be jettisoned in belt tightening.

China lockdowns, war in Ukraine with no end in sight, frozen Russian monies, uncertainties with European economies, and general instabilities all cannot be excluded from consideration affecting Rolex internationally. Put as much weight on any and all of them as you wish.

FACT WITH SOME OPINION- For people with disposable incomes, I agree with the YouTuber, people want to get out and travel, the numbers for airlines, hotel rooms, and so forth justify this assertion. Money will flow toward experiences more so than toward watches and the like.

Rolex is in business and actively producing new watches every day. We can speculate as to the volume or this index is made more than that index. I am not calling markets on vintage or high demand indexes which are out of production. But even though Rolex has increased the MSRP on their current catalog, these watches are in production. FACT- the undeniable force of supply and demand. For any number of reasons demand was high resulting in wait lists and such, and supply was short. Rolex rolled out new indexes, and people reach deep to be the first to have that newest model, spare money, you name it. However, eventually the supply will catch the demand. Look at the watches being offered on the gray market- many, if not most, have warranty cards dated within days, weeks, or maybe months before being offered for sale. One can always claim buyer remorse, angry spouse, or a bad economic spin to get out of your brand-new unworn Rolex, but likely these were purchased with the intention of flipping. The appetite of the true buyer/wearer, flipper/speculators, and secondhand dealers will eventually have to get satisfied because you do run out of market, and people run out of money. Once you start holding inventory time is not on your side, you must keep them moving, so discounting to whatever degree is almost inevitable because you must meet your costs. Remember- a business is not a museum; things are there to buy not to just admire; so, passing on offers which keep cash coming in is still cash flow toward the business. Its great if you can be in business and have the luxury of not selling anything and keeping your doors open, let me know your secret. You can have hubris, but your inventory will be liquidated at a considerable discount as part of closing the business.

I considered numerous sources for a good triangulation and more accurate data. On May 12th I saw a large Rolex re-seller on eBay discounted most, if not all, their catalog offerings 9-15%. These discounts are still reflecting an overinflated price in my opinion, but you see the downward trend. Main point- prices are not going up, ebay has a worldwide presence, and certain guarantees to ease the sale, and activity on the listing is transparent, you can see it; you don’t see a shortage of listings and you certainly do not see Rolexes being hotly contested.

Consider this real example- the Milgauss 116400GV was not the fastest mover out there but has been one of the shooting stars starting late 2021 and into 2022, probably because of the relatively low price point and relative obscurity against the newest indexes. Speculations about it being discontinued the last several years have probably helped too. In December 2021 the MSRP was $8,300; I saw ads listing them as high as $20k, wow over 100% markup, lots of listings in the 15k range. I watched listings stalled out and going stale at $12,000. I did see a sale at $12,250.00 (approximately). So here we are now in May, 2022- five months later. MSRP now up to $9,150.00. C24 has NIB Milgauss offerings at $15K, with a sprinkling around the mid to high $13,000s here and there. There is one listed for $14,295 on Bobswatches. There is a posting on eBay at $12,592, which is about as low as I see. Talk about a range, we are talking a difference of over $7k from the observed high to low from different sources- now what does that tell you about uncertainty and how solid the “market value” of this particular index is. In this instance, it is obvious someone has picked a price point where they are comfortable moving it.

So, if I paid $12,595 on eBay, and we are assuming it is an authentic piece of course but this goes without saying. At full MSRP, NIB from an AD out the door would run me $9750, the difference of some $2840 in markup, nearly 30%. Remember about the differentials in sales tax, not to mention a modest markup paid to each set of hands this watch is passing thru, it doesn’t leave much room. Ideally, a person puts themselves on the list, walks in, pays for their watch and goes out the door, flipping it before their credit card payment is due for a quick thousand or so. The gray market dealer of course goes up from there.

In another example, consider the Submariner 124060. In December 2021 the MSRP stood at $8100. It’s now up to $8950. Most buyers from an AD would be below $10k out the door at MSRP with a reasonable allowance for taxes. Back in December 2021 I saw listings asking as high as $20k, the lowest was about $13.5k. There are some lists well over that now, approaching 24-25k; now that is optimism. You can find current listings on the low end asking the high 12k’s, with most offerings between $14k to $15k. So what does this mean? Essentially, there are listings which are expecting you to pay up over 200% markup for the privilege. But, no matter what the charts plot, if we had askings on gray market 124060’s, we still have listings in the same general price range, give or take, we had in December, right? You would expect, aside from the outliers on the high-end prices would have naturally continued to climb, but this does not seem to be the case, any gain is marginal, at best. This brings us back to supply and demand, you can ask whatever price you want, and we can all price our product within a few hundred of each other to see whose moves first, but because there are plenty of active sales around, there is no shortage; there is just too much than a prospective person is willing to pay. In December 2021 I saw a sale in the high $12000’s, suggesting that was the “just price”, the intersection where buyer and seller are good with the deal. So, if that was the “just market price” five months ago, how do we reckon the askings today? We can be reasonably assured there have been a lot of AD sold 124060’s in the last five months and plenty of those have appeared on the 2nd hand market, meaning there were still a lot of speculative buyers, not wearers cleaning the AD’s out. I am confident there is still quite a bit of stale inventory starting to sit, so again, the demand cup is likely full, but the facet keeps running.

So let’s look at some of the confounding variables here. We can reasonably presume certain listings are simply click bait listings. Some are going to frauds attempting to scam someone out of money when no such watch actually exists. There are offerings which I also deem click bait because they are high water mark prices and the offering is legit, its just that someone is in no hurry to sell and would just simply sell for the right price, but they are not motivated and would be okay if it never sold, but it would for the right price. Furthermore, we cannot exclude certain regional factors as well. Until recently it was customary to do business across state lines to avoid sales tax, again, a real net savings to the buyer. It also stands to reason that fixed and variable business costs differ from place to place, and overhead is a lot higher in some places. Of course there are underserved markets as well. If you do not have an AD in your area, then you have to deal with a reseller unless you plan to travel where there are AD's, and hope luck is on your side. Is there a new generation of enthusiasts which actually places a value on the brand of Rolex or any other brand for that matter.

So its not all doom and gloom. There will always be that high end clientele whom neither monies asked nor economies affect. There will be certain Rolexes which remain in high demand and will buck the general trends of what we discussed here. Rolexes will always be worth something, what that something is remains the debate. The other night I was in a well established brick and mortar jeweler (Not a Rolex AD) in a very hot area. They had a nice selection of pre-owned Rolexes but I felt their pricing was too high, which was not greeted too well by the salesperson, who could not have disagreed with me more- their advice- buy now before the price goes up. Well the price may go up, as a singular matter of fact, but that does not mean it will sell. In the months ahead someone will be right, and someone will be wrong.

I didn't get past "Hello all" but if any of this dissertation is, or becomes accurate, it is only blind luck as nobody knows anything for certain and we are all speculating.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Interesting

5k under MSRP? Was it a YG DayDate?

Regardless I wonder what the market for DayDates in general could turn out to be. A D’s will never ever ever ever ever sell under MSRP again but in 2020 you could find BNIB 228238’s for asking mid 30’s. Even with a diamond dial.

Point being is if the new ask for a 228238 is a few thousand over MSRP what would even be the interest for a Grey being I’d imagine there buy figure is just that, MSRP. Or maybe my math and hypotheses is way wrong

You read my mind, was just wondering about this myself. DDs used to be 25-30% off at AD, so my bet based on what I have read here is if greys offer to buy at, say, 60% of their list, that puts you right around those MSRP discount numbers from before. Example, 228328 grey list= $50k, they offer u $30k, MSRP + tax - 25% ~ $30k. So plan on losing minimum 25-30% if buying from AD if you ever plan on selling to a grey.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by thenewrick

I think the 2 major changes will be 50% shorter wait on wait lists. 50% lower offers from Greys on your references. Collectors will still collect. It'll just be the end of quick flips for most references.

It would be great to get some of the “quick flippers” out of our hobby altogether. Less of them means more “opportunities” for true watch lovers and for those of us who want to OWN a Rolex.

I just think we have a loooooooooooooooooooong way to go outside these past 2 months or so to make any difference in the A D mentality. Sadly for some of us and the A D’s we have it’s always gonna be “omg demand is thru the roof”.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by rolex16

You read my mind, was just wondering about this myself. DDs used to be 25-30% off at AD, so my bet based on what I have read here is if greys offer to buy at, say, 60% of their list, that puts you right around those MSRP discount numbers from before. Example, 228328 grey list= $50k, they offer u $30k, MSRP + tax - 25% ~ $30k. So plan on losing minimum 25-30% if buying from AD if you ever plan on selling to a grey.

do you mean now or before? they absolutely would not be offering 30k if they're listing at 50. if the watch gets listed at 50 they would likely offer you something in the low to mid 40s (probably like ~45k but depends on the seller). and i just mean before this correction/crash/whatever we call it

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by huncho

do you mean now or before? they absolutely would not be offering 30k if they're listing at 50. if the watch gets listed at 50 they would likely offer you something in the low to mid 40s. and i just mean before this correction/crash/whatever we call it

Now. I’m just going by what I read in other posts about offers being made. I saw 60% of list for a 116520. Can’t imagine a DD would get more than that.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by rolex16

You read my mind, was just wondering about this myself. DDs used to be 25-30% off at AD, so my bet based on what I have read here is if greys offer to buy at, say, 60% of their list, that puts you right around those MSRP discount numbers from before. Example, 228328 grey list= $50k, they offer u $30k, MSRP + tax - 25% ~ $30k. So plan on losing minimum 25-30% if buying from AD if you ever plan on selling to a grey.

Exactly. Like most of our thinking

I’ve seen right now, unworn 228238’s for 45,500 range. Granted it’s a 2021 but even still. For some of us depending on the state that’s MSRP with tax. So if that’s the “now” what’s the next few weeks/months gonna look like? Plus that’s the ask price. I’m sure if I contacted the seller there’s room to negotiate.

I can’t speak for anyone other than myself but paying the equivalent of MSRP plus tax is done deal for me. Not like I’d get any better from an A D.

Unfortunately I’m not seeing as much of a shift in Everose models. Some but not as near as much as YG or WG

For those of you that are members on Moda and places like that what’s the RG market like with 505’s, 515’s, and 235’s?

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Exactly. Like most of our thinking

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by huncho

do you mean now or before? they absolutely would not be offering 30k if they're listing at 50. if the watch gets listed at 50 they would likely offer you something in the low to mid 40s (probably like ~45k but depends on the seller). and i just mean before this correction/crash/whatever we call it

Now brother.

YG DayDates are there now with some Greys

I’ve seen BNIB models anywhere from 45-50k. I can think of 10 you can look at right now

[huncho]

Originally Posted by rolex16

Now. I’m just going by what I read in other posts about offers being made. I saw 60% of list for a 116520. Can’t imagine a DD would get more than that.

i guess it depends on the model also, daytonas have a lot more room to fall. i can't imagine it's currently any easier to get watches yet and we're just in a panic price discovery while everything gets unloaded. i don't think things will drop below msrp+tax

Originally Posted by samuel019

Now brother.

YG DayDates are there now with some Greys

I’ve seen BNIB models anywhere from 45-50k. I can think of 10 you can look at right now

yeah i saw they dropped to the 40s, i was just referring to greys offering 30 for them but i don't think you'd be getting offers for 30k right? that would be backwards lol

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by huncho

do you mean now or before? they absolutely would not be offering 30k if they're listing at 50. if the watch gets listed at 50 they would likely offer you something in the low to mid 40s (probably like ~45k but depends on the seller). and i just mean before this correction/crash/whatever we call it

Nick and I were discussing another members post that he was offered 5k under MSRP for his PM piece. He didn’t specify which one.

I guessed a 228238 being Greys are basically selling mid 40’s and the fact of his offer.

[samuel019]

Originally Posted by huncho

i guess it depends on the model also, daytonas have a lot more room to fall. i can't imagine it's currently any easier to get watches yet and we're just in a panic price discovery while everything gets unloaded. i don't think things will drop below msrp+tax



yeah i saw they dropped to the 40s, i was just referring to greys offering 30 for them but i don't think you'd be getting offers for 30k right? that would be backwards lol

Beat me before I could reply

Yes I think that would be backwards but maybe that could turn out to be the new market for certain PM models.

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by huncho

i guess it depends on the model also, daytonas have a lot more room to fall. i can't imagine it's currently any easier to get watches yet and we're just in a panic price discovery while everything gets unloaded. i don't think things will drop below msrp+tax



yeah i saw they dropped to the 40s, i was just referring to greys offering 30 for them but i don't think you'd be getting offers for 30k right? that would be backwards lol

I meant greys offering 30 to buy from someone selling to them, not greys selling them for 30. My point was a PM DD will probably drop minimum 25-30% out the door even if purchased at an AD, despite grey list prices still being over MSRP.

[huncho]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Beat me before I could reply

Yes I think that would be backwards but maybe that could turn out to be the new market for certain PM models.

that's insane then. but like you mentioned, i think to me msrp + tax is good enough to take the deal if i ever want anything. i have no shot with any ADs around here. luckily not really in the market for anything right now though besides maybe a santos

Originally Posted by rolex16

I meant greys offering 30 to buy from someone selling to them, not greys selling them for 30. My point was a PM DD will probably drop minimum 25-30% out the door even if purchased at an AD, despite grey list prices still being over MSRP.

yeah i got that, just hard to imagine that will become the norm

[rolex16]

Originally Posted by huncho

that's insane then. but like you mentioned, i think to me msrp + tax is good enough to take the deal if i ever want anything. i have no shot with any ADs around here. luckily not really in the market for anything right now though besides maybe a santos



yeah i got that, just hard to imagine that will become the norm

Ok, sorry if I misunderstood. My guess is if market prices come down closer to MSRP+ tax and the market stabilizes, they will start to offer to buy at higher percent of list again. I think the lowball offers right now are due to overstock and uncertainty. But even then, my guess is they will offer maybe 70-75% of MSRP, so you will still lose that 25-30% out the door from the AD. Which is fine, that’s how it’s been historically. Just a guess though…

[Athas]

I havent seen any evidence of a significant price drop

[Solo118]

Originally Posted by Athas

I havent seen any evidence of a significant price drop

Depends what you consider significant. Prices are down on certain "hype" models, that is for sure.

[Turbo Racer]

Originally Posted by samuel019

Exactly. Like most of our thinking

I’ve seen right now, unworn 228238’s for 45,500 range. Granted it’s a 2021 but even still. For some of us depending on the state that’s MSRP with tax. So if that’s the “now” what’s the next few weeks/months gonna look like? Plus that’s the ask price. I’m sure if I contacted the seller there’s room to negotiate.

I can’t speak for anyone other than myself but paying the equivalent of MSRP plus tax is done deal for me. Not like I’d get any better from an A D.

Unfortunately I’m not seeing as much of a shift in Everose models. Some but not as near as much as YG or WG

For those of you that are members on Moda and places like that what’s the RG market like with 505’s, 515’s, and 235’s?

It seems like things are more volatile than I thought. And i\if these drops in what dealers are paying for trade, then much of the Rolex catalogue will revert to around msrp if this keeps up. Some a little above and some below depending on popularity.

Whatever happens, the grey market will adapt and pay whatever allows them to make a profit when they sell. That’s the way it historically was anyways. You’d go to an ad and they’d want msrp or give you a small discount or go to grey and get a larger one.

For what its worth, if I was a grey right now and flush with a full inventory, I would low ball everything or not buy at all. I don’t see anything fundamentally different in the USA economy that has changed over the last 2-4 weeks. Only Greys will know if business picks up and when it does, I would think trade offers will strengthen.

[David001]

Come on guys, we're literally only a few weeks into a price fall, the rise didn't happen overnight and the fall won't either, it's going to take most of this year for the new watch buyers and investors to realise that the bottom has fallen out of it, then we'll probably see a downwards curve as steep as the upwards one that happened in 2020.

Looking at prices every day or AD shop windows and expecting a light switch change isn't realistic.

[jtli202]

Originally Posted by huncho

do you mean now or before? they absolutely would not be offering 30k if they're listing at 50. if the watch gets listed at 50 they would likely offer you something in the low to mid 40s (probably like ~45k but depends on the seller). and i just mean before this correction/crash/whatever we call it

yeah def not getting that now.. from what i've seen they are offering around 60-70% of what they list at.

[HelloMelo]

Prices are falling pretty fast. This is todays post




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[Goupax]

Originally Posted by HelloMelo

Prices are falling pretty fast. This is todays post

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I saw a ton of those for sale on various sales groups, the GMT Master II, and especially the Batman, got to be the most flipped Rolex on the grey market right now. BLROs are much harder to get so it's not really surprising that the professional flippers have targeted the Batman to make their quick and high volume profit.

[Goupax]

There are good buying opportunities right now on those facebook groups for watches sold on auction, the final prices are significantly lower than for sale only posts, especially on PM sports Rolex. Ladies and gentlemen, this is what a fire sale looks like.