Prices not dropping?

[QuelleHeureEstIl]

Originally Posted by Golfbone

I don't think this is anything more than a correction which was long overdue.

This! Actually this is the divergence we have. :)

My postulate is that because of the end of free money and the increase of interest rates (My bank has negative interest rates on my cash), we will go back to how it has always been in the watch world.

[temporarychicken]

Crashes, both in the wider economy and the current 'Rolex Bubble' can only be described as such after the fact.

What's the difference between a correction and a crash? Only elapsed time can show you that.

By the time you know if it was a correction or a crash, it's months afterwards and nobody has a time machine to go back and take advantage of it.

The one thing I have picked up here in the last few weeks...

Q: Who knows today if it's a correction or a crash?

A: Nobody.

[10klakes]

Prices (MSRP) are not dropping, and Rolex continues to make some great time pieces. Time will tell, it’s all speculation at this point, but hopefully TRF members will continue to enjoy this hobby and their watches.

[Santiago32]

Originally Posted by 10klakes

Prices (MSRP) are not dropping, and Rolex continues to make some great time pieces. Time will tell, it’s all speculation at this point, but hopefully TRF members will continue to enjoy this hobby and their watches.

Agreed. A watch pays huge dividend just being on the wrist and being enjoyed IMO

[Adam84]

Originally Posted by Tensai

I wish we could make this more interesting, since everyone thinks they are such experts on the “market”.
A list of those who say market will crash.
A list of those who say market will correct a little but no big change.
In 3 months, determine the state of the market and those on the losing list are deleted from TRF!

Set up a new thread with a poll…soon sorts that out lol

[EEpro]

Originally Posted by Tensai

I wish we could make this more interesting, since everyone thinks they are such experts on the “market”.
A list of those who say market will crash.
A list of those who say market will correct a little but no big change.
In 3 months, determine the state of the market and those on the losing list are deleted from TRF!

How about the losers have to pledge $100 and have a special red color name and title.

"2022 market drop aficionado pledge member"

[Dr.Mehr]

Those who purchased from the AD will not be loosers at all.
But those who purchased from the grey dealers will definitely loose one way or the other …

[TheWatchmen]

Originally Posted by Dr.Mehr

Those who purchased from the AD will not be loosers at all.
But those who purchased from the grey dealers will definitely loose one way or the other …

One way or the other? What if that Pepsi someone bought for 25k is going for 30k in 6 months?

[Podmornica]

It may take up to a year for the market to adjust to new economic circumstances.

Most of the flippers are living in denial at this point and refuse to lower their prices as themselves bought it high.

You can tell they are in a trouble as they are no longer paying you nowhere near they used to just months ago.

On the other hand Rolex is producing more and more of these watches with each passing day.

[Mystro]

This is déjà vu all again from three years back. Funny no one assumes the market won’t adjust back up even higher than it was last month. Three years ago there were those on their soapbox insisting the Rolex market cannot go any higher. The economy won’t support it, fast forward Covid shut down will destroy the watch market, etc….


This might be important information considering a lot of these market watch threads are from TRF members that haven’t been here for more than a few months.

[Wahlberg]

Originally Posted by Mystro

This is déjà vu all again from three years back. Funny no one assumes the market won’t adjust back up even higher than it was last month. Three years ago there were those on their soapbox insisting the Rolex market cannot go any higher. The economy won’t support it, fast forward Covid shut down will destroy the watch market, etc….


This might be important information considering a lot of these market watch threads are from TRF members that haven’t been here for more than a few months.

Again pushing your agenda.

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Wahlberg

Again pushing your agenda.

How is the last three years of TRF history my agenda?
Your not walking in in a Rolex AD and buying out of the display case so it is what it is.

[Son Goku]

Originally Posted by Mystro

This is déjà vu all again from three years back. Funny no one assumes the market won’t adjust back up even higher than it was last month. Three years ago there were those on their soapbox insisting the Rolex market cannot go any higher. The economy won’t support it, fast forward Covid shut down will destroy the watch market, etc….


This might be important information considering a lot of these market watch threads are from TRF members that haven’t been here for more than a few months.

History is also rife with examples of “assets” that peaked in value and never saw anything close again.

Bottom line is no one knows for sure what will happen, but to suggest that the watch market still doesn’t have room to fall and stay at considerably lower levels isn’t true the same way that you can’t say for sure prices won’t rise again. What you know is what you can see now, which is prices continue to experience downward pressure

[Mystro]

Originally Posted by Son Goku

History is also rife with examples of “assets” that peaked in value and never saw anything close again.

Bottom line is no one knows for sure what will happen, but to suggest that the watch market still doesn’t have room to fall and stay at considerably lower levels isn’t true the same way that you can’t say for sure prices won’t rise again. What you know is what you can see now, which is prices continue to experience downward pressure

Yup, and you can’t be sure it’s doesn’t bounce back up or acknowledge it’s a very real possibility. The “Rolex market can’t go up any higher” was exactly the the mantra on this forum for years all while the Rolex market rolled over them and their waiting list. No one wants to speak of those days acknowledging the Rolex market could even get worse and return higher than what it was before. Remember no one really knows what’s going to happen other than to look back over the last few recent years to draw any conclusion of the possibilities. The passion everyone had then of the unsustainable Rolex market isn’t any different than of the last few weeks of “Rolex bubble burst market reports”. It’s just now we seem to have a bunch of new TRF players that were not on TRF remembering all this has been done and said before with the same passion and uncertainty.

I get it, there isn’t any watches in the display cases and no one is walking in and buying or even trying on models they can purchase from their Rolex authorized dealer. That is the only important factor that matters.
It sucks and just as depressing now as it was four years ago when this freight train started. The only glimmer of hope or the canary in the coal mine that says things might change is if you can walk in and find at least a few undesirable 41mm DateJust models sitting lonely in the display that can be purchased. That says that the market desirability has at least gone down enough for people to refuse any Rolex model they see.
There is a long long way to go before you even see any Professional model in the display case. At this point you’re rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic hoping for a sunny day playing the “this model or that model has dropped 10%”.

Ultimately the only way anything changes is if there are enough Rolex watches as well as enough different models on display so you can walk in to a AD and selectively buy. That is the only factor the average Rolex buyer needs to have happen to make any real change on the aftermarket price structure.

[mountainjogger]

Originally Posted by Dr.Mehr

Those who purchased from the AD will not be loosers at all.
But those who purchased from the grey dealers will definitely loose one way or the other …

Unless they enjoyed wearing their watch more than the premium they paid. In that case, they won.

[jarecki]

Originally Posted by Dr.Mehr

Those who purchased from the AD will not be loosers at all.
But those who purchased from the grey dealers will definitely loose one way or the other …

Comments like that always make me chuckle. Let’s say somebody purchases Daytona from grey for 3x MSRP, and they happily enjoy wearing it ever after. How exactly have they lost???

[rolexandlange]

I visited my AD yesterday, they had two 28mm datejusts for sale. One of them was a simple two-tone ladies 28mm, no diamonds. 6 months ago they would have both been solid gold and full of diamonds. So things are heading in the right direction!

[fsprow]

Originally Posted by Dr.Mehr

Those who purchased from the AD will not be loosers at all.
But those who purchased from the grey dealers will definitely loose one way or the other …

Spell checker in action?

[Calatrava r]

Checked out the used watch dealer I know, and turnover seems very robust there with sales at steady prices. Still a lot of money chasing scarce watches.

[Reikolexguy]

Originally Posted by Santiago32

Agreed. A watch pays huge dividend just being on the wrist and being enjoyed IMO

I wholeheartedly agree.


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[JadeRaven]

Originally Posted by TheWatchmen

One way or the other? What if that Pepsi someone bought for 25k is going for 30k in 6 months?

You still paid 25k for a 10k watch.

[Chiboy]

Originally Posted by temporarychicken

What's the difference between a correction and a crash? Only elapsed time can show you that.

I was going to say that a correction is something that happens to someone else’s stock market or economy. A crash is when it happens to yours!

[Cambo]

This is still very much a supply/demand scenario. Currently, panic sellers are increasing supply but for how long? Rolex isn’t increasing output so there will be a bottom. Everyone is simply waiting for the other shoe to drop, meaning what price a watch has to fall before buying kicks in again. When that happens we very well may see prices steeply climb again as this correction may not occur again for some time.
This will be one interesting “stare-down”.
I hope everyone fares well.

[Reikolexguy]

Originally Posted by jarecki

Comments like that always make me chuckle. Let’s say somebody purchases Daytona from grey for 3x MSRP, and they happily enjoy wearing it ever after. How exactly have they lost???

Indeed.

If it’s your grail watch, and you have the means to afford the resale premium, I’d say go for it. Especially if you simply refuse to/can’t wait at the AD and expend precious time / resources waiting for “the call”.

There will also be individuals who simply refuse to buy from grey market dealers and are happy to wait as long as it takes to get their Rolex.

Prognosticating about the future of the Rolex market is an exercise in futility. It is what it is now and we just have to accept it.

The good old days of walking to the AD and getting whatever Rolex you wanted have gone the way of the dodo.

Until there is a massive increase in Rolex production capacity to meet demand, the market prices are unlikely to return to or below MSRP.

With their products flying off the shelves, Rolex isn’t very incentivised to ramp up production.

After all, easy availability naturally reduces exclusivity and desirability. Particularly so in the case of luxury goods that are, by definition unnecessary, I think this is the sort of situation most businesses could only dream of being in.

And if I were Rolex, I’d want to ensure it stays that way. They are a business after all.


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[BNA/LION]

Prices, Prices, Prices... Prices for EVERTHING Go Up and Down! Give it a Rest...

[dawalsh]

Originally Posted by temporarychicken

Crashes, both in the wider economy and the current 'Rolex Bubble' can only be described as such after the fact.

What's the difference between a correction and a crash? Only elapsed time can show you that.

By the time you know if it was a correction or a crash, it's months afterwards and nobody has a time machine to go back and take advantage of it.

The one thing I have picked up here in the last few weeks...

Q: Who knows today if it's a correction or a crash?

A: Nobody.

In July 2020, Pepsi went for $16k a Batgirl went for $14k. If we go back to that, is it a crash or correction? Serious question. I’m not expert on this stuff just want to know. It makes no difference to me either way. I buy my watches from AD just because I can’t afford grey price.

[rolexpatek363]

Funny how self-proclaimed "true watch enthusiasts" focus so much on the prices. It's almost as if they don't want to lose their money, but at the same time they are telling everyone how much they love the watches and don't care about money or "investment potential". I think that if Rolex watches were worth 5% of MSRP after six months, no-one would buy them.

Confusing, isn't it?

[underpar]

I was texting with a friend today about the prices coming down so he sent an inquiry to a well known grey dealer for his 2021 gently worn 126710BLRO full AD package.

The offer was $16,000. He forwarded me the offer so it is legit.

Anyone know what they were offering a couple months ago?

[rolexpatek363]

Originally Posted by underpar

Anyone know what they were offering a couple months ago?

Ask them.

[underpar]

Originally Posted by rolexpatek363

Ask them.

That's pretty unrealistic and I was just asking a question that many on this forum could answer accurately.

You, on the other hand, just seem to be looking to instigate everyone.