New AP’S prediction 2022 thread

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by GS93108

Your question wasn't directed to me, but IMO it is washed out and it needs some contrast somewhere in there.





It was my least favourite and the transfer logo isn’t to my taste either. An amazing movement but very busy when there aren’t any defining points to catch your eye.

The 16204ST is such a cool piece. But it does seem to lack contrast in the dial. If it had that it would be the best AP piece. I mean a openworked jumbo sized extra thin RO… what else could you ask for?


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[Grand Style]

Will there be an update on this model?
RO Jumbo Extra-thin:

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by Grand Style

Will there be an update on this model?
RO Jumbo Extra-thin:

Would look better with baguette markers rather than round stones IMO

[Mini2]

IMO - Why don't they do a steel Code 1159?

[messikens]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Boss move(s).

Name it already!


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[eiesh]

Originally Posted by kimwizzzuuu

Still patiently waiting. Passed on 26240ST green,15510st green, 16204ST and most recently Blue ceramic QP.

Wise decison.

Like Reign said with only 1 silver bullet, I'll also pass on the blue ceramic QP (26579CS) and wait for thr 26585CE

For your 50th, after passing on all these pieces, my guess is you're patiently waiting for the 26735ST.

Goodluck bud, as always, please share with us when your piece arrives

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[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by Mini2

IMO - Why don't they do a steel Code 1159?

Because steel would mean lower retail price and then no one would probably get the regular PM Code’s for $34K. As you won’t see much difference between the steel and the PM.


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[VogelPhoenix]

Originally Posted by GS93108

Your question wasn't directed to me, but IMO it is washed out and it needs some contrast somewhere in there.

It was my least favourite and the transfer logo isn’t to my taste either. An amazing movement but very busy when there aren’t any defining points to catch your eye.

Agreed - the 39mm/ultra-thin form factor is very nice, but the architecture of the movement and the contrast between components is much more interesting on the 15407.

[raclaims]

Originally Posted by eiesh

Wise decison.

Like Reign said with only 1 silver bullet, I'll also pass on the blue ceramic QP (26579CS) and wait for thr 26585CE

For your 50th, after passing on all these pieces, my guess is you're patiently waiting for the 26735ST.

Goodluck bud, as always, please share with us when your piece arrives

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They've delivered like 1 so far to the US of the 26735ST...so it's gonna be a long wait.

[gretch6364]

GS...thanks for the response and pictures. I was not in the ballgame (or even stadium) for one, but that was my first thought when seeing. I could of definitely been killer.

[GW44]

Originally Posted by GS93108

Your question wasn't directed to me, but IMO it is washed out and it needs some contrast somewhere in there.





It was my least favourite and the transfer logo isn’t to my taste either. An amazing movement but very busy when there aren’t any defining points to catch your eye.

I’ve tried on the 16204ST a couple of times now and I must agree that whilst a bold move it doesn’t work in the flesh. For me, my eye, there were also some alignment issues but they were marketing pieces so that might cover that.

Given an open choice of Openworked (see what I did there…..) I’d have the 15407ST every day of the week.

[GS93108]

Originally Posted by VogelPhoenix

Agreed - the 39mm/ultra-thin form factor is very nice, but the architecture of the movement and the contrast between components is much more interesting on the 15407.

I am in complete agreement. We know the movement in the 15407 et al is the exact same movement as in the 37mm versions so presumably the only technical reason that the same movement couldn't be put into the 39mm case is the depth, hence the need for an open work ultra-thin movement, else a 39mm 15407 equivalent would have been boss!

Originally Posted by GW44

I’ve tried on the 16204ST a couple of times now and I must agree that whilst a bold move it doesn’t work in the flesh. For me, my eye, there were also some alignment issues but they were marketing pieces so that might cover that.

Given an open choice of Openworked (see what I did there…..) I’d have the 15407ST every day of the week.

I'd take the 15407 and with the change I'd also drop in a 15510. However, the battle between the RG variants is a lot closer.

[Reign]

Originally Posted by GS93108

I am in complete agreement. We know the movement in the 15407 et al is the exact same movement as in the 37mm versions so presumably the only technical reason that the same movement couldn't be put into the 39mm case is the depth, hence the need for an open work ultra-thin movement, else a 39mm 15407 equivalent would have been boss!



I'd take the 15407 and with the change I'd also drop in a 15510. However, the battle between the RG variants is a lot closer.

I think I prefer the 15416, do you want to trade?


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[GS93108]

Originally Posted by Reign

I think I prefer the 15416, do you want to trade?


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Are you sure you actually want mine? but good point.

[Reign]

Originally Posted by GS93108

Are you sure you actually want mine? but good point.

Nothing a little glue can’t fix


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[kimwizzzuuu]

Originally Posted by Willyjo

You passed on all these? What are you waiting for? Must be a blockbuster!


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You can't have all of them, save some for others, haha

Originally Posted by gretch6364

Did you get to see the 16204ST in person? I am curious if it looks as washed out as it does in pictures. Wondering why they didn't go with darkend bridges like the SS double balance.

If it doesn't...not sure I could pass on that.

Nah, when I got the message I'm back in my home country. I have not see the 16204ST in person but I feel like that we already own 15407 and 15466 variant, I want something different, and the logo as well as the less contrast bridge does let me pass this piece.

Originally Posted by Reign

I was trying to figure out which one you’d get hah!




Fighting the good fight! Don’t capitulate!


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Now you got some great choice of Code to buy.

Originally Posted by eiesh

Wise decison.

Like Reign said with only 1 silver bullet, I'll also pass on the blue ceramic QP (26579CS) and wait for thr 26585CE

For your 50th, after passing on all these pieces, my guess is you're patiently waiting for the 26735ST.

Goodluck bud, as always, please share with us when your piece arrives

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I'm not quite at 26735ST level yet, but for 50th, I've been waiting for ceramic chrono since its first appearance on Kevin Hart's wrist, and openwork ceramic QP is probably the only QP I want right now.

[Mini2]

Originally Posted by Champagnepapi

Because steel would mean lower retail price and then no one would probably get the regular PM Code’s for $34K. As you won’t see much difference between the steel and the PM.


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Who's even buying the code currently

[m3jasper]

Originally Posted by GS93108

The black/gold ceramic toub Code is now on AP's site. WOW! - At last.

Beautiful piece! Love the onyx dial, reminds me a lot of the Movado I had as a kid.

Originally Posted by GS93108

192 days.

Originally Posted by raclaims

I may know a guy getting the onyx tourb

[m3jasper]

Originally Posted by kimwizzzuuu

Still patiently waiting. Passed on 26240ST green,15510st green, 16204ST and most recently Blue ceramic QP.

A man on a mission! Holding out for the 26585CE? Did Kevin promise you one?

Originally Posted by Reign

I was trying to figure out which one you’d get hah!

Fighting the good fight! Don’t capitulate!

Agreed, hold out for what you want.

Originally Posted by GS93108

Your question wasn't directed to me, but IMO it is washed out and it needs some contrast somewhere in there.

It was my least favourite and the transfer logo isn’t to my taste either. An amazing movement but very busy when there aren’t any defining points to catch your eye.

I agree, I would also prefer some contrast. The OR model, on the other hand, looks great to me. Would love to be able to see one in person eventually.

Originally Posted by raclaims

They've delivered like 1 so far to the US of the 26735ST...so it's gonna be a long wait.

Certainly won't be easy, but I'm sure you'll eventually get the opportunity.

Originally Posted by GS93108

I am in complete agreement. We know the movement in the 15407 et al is the exact same movement as in the 37mm versions so presumably the only technical reason that the same movement couldn't be put into the 39mm case is the depth, hence the need for an open work ultra-thin movement, else a 39mm 15407 equivalent would have been boss!

I'd take the 15407 and with the change I'd also drop in a 15510. However, the battle between the RG variants is a lot closer.

Agreed 100%.

Originally Posted by kimwizzzuuu

You can't have all of them, save some for others, haha

I'm not quite at 26735ST level yet, but for 50th, I've been waiting for ceramic chrono since its first appearance on Kevin Hart's wrist, and openwork ceramic QP is probably the only QP I want right now.

I was told that two CE pieces in the same year would never happen. Hope you prove them wrong!

Smart play with not taking any of the other 50th pieces and holding out for what you want. I did a similar thing to facilitate getting my #1 wish. Hopefully it arrives in Q4.

[kimwizzzuuu]

Originally Posted by m3jasper

A man on a mission! Holding out for the 26585CE? Did Kevin promise you one?

Agreed, hold out for what you want.

I agree, I would also prefer some contrast. The OR model, on the other hand, looks great to me. Would love to be able to see one in person eventually.

Certainly won't be easy, but I'm sure you'll eventually get the opportunity.

Agreed 100%.

I was told that two CE pieces in the same year would never happen. Hope you prove them wrong!

Smart play with not taking any of the other 50th pieces and holding out for what you want. I did a similar thing to facilitate getting my #1 wish. Hopefully it arrives in Q4.

No promises, but I trust my guy. In the beginning of 2022, he already told me they didn’t see any 585CE incoming to boutique due to 50th allocation taking up the majority production, at least for me. My plan was going to have the ceramic chrono this year and 585 next year. Since my wife already got her ice blue royal oak, I could live without any new watch this year, as long as I could have a 585ce later.

[Kosst]

New rose gold Rubberclad

https://www.audemarspiguet.com/com/e...A002CA.01.html

[GB-man]

I saw that looks nice for us who get nostalgic about the OG references. That said I think AP has price increased their way back into discount land. I see most offshores headed below MSRP on secondary soon. Nothing wrong with that just an observation.

[dmash]

Originally Posted by GB-man

I saw that looks nice for us who get nostalgic about the OG references. That said I think AP has price increased their way back into discount land. I see most offshores headed below MSRP on secondary soon. Nothing wrong with that just an observation.

They’re unfortunately already below MSRP, even before tax. New 43’s are popping up for 41k-$42k now. I mentioned this before, that ~$50k is a hefty ask for a stainless chronograph on rubber.

I was really surprised AP increased again for US to be honest, other countries made sense due to strengthening dollar, but kind of seemed like a money grab in the states.

I’m sure AP has financial gurus 10x smarter than me but there’s got to be a point where they relax. If this market continues downward it’s a horrible look if half the catalog is selling for under MSRP. You can’t pump prices endlessly…

With that being said, I’m still a buyer for my ROC no matter what, as it’s been on the bucket list for years

[APWhale]

1 of 50.

[thecrownprince]

Originally Posted by APWhale

1 of 50.

That is stunning!

[Champagnepapi]

Originally Posted by APWhale

1 of 50.

Now that’s something you don’t see often. Congrats looks great


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[gretch6364]

Congrats Whale....that is killer! Do the blues all appear to be the same shade and tone in person?

Originally Posted by dmash

They’re unfortunately already below MSRP, even before tax. New 43’s are popping up for 41k-$42k now. I mentioned this before, that ~$50k is a hefty ask for a stainless chronograph on rubber.

I was really surprised AP increased again for US to be honest, other countries made sense due to strengthening dollar, but kind of seemed like a money grab in the states.

I’m sure AP has financial gurus 10x smarter than me but there’s got to be a point where they relax. If this market continues downward it’s a horrible look if half the catalog is selling for under MSRP. You can’t pump prices endlessly…

With that being said, I’m still a buyer for my ROC no matter what, as it’s been on the bucket list for years

I am honestly, as a buyer, fine with this. Hopefully it drives some more people into the grey and I can pay my $10K or whatever more for a ROC and get a better allocation then those that went grey.

[thekman]

Speaking of watches selling below MSRP. Just saw a Code QP listed for 75k on Moda and sitting unsold 48 hours later. That's 25% below MSRP. I like the watch would be hard to make a case to buy it from AP when the gap is likely to increase even further. (Unless it comes with a promise for a grail ceramic piece to be quite honest)

[Armis]

Originally Posted by thekman

Speaking of watches selling below MSRP. Just saw a Code QP listed for 75k on Moda and sitting unsold 48 hours later. That's 25% below MSRP. I like the watch would be hard to make a case to buy it from AP when the gap is likely to increase even further. (Unless it comes with a promise for a grail ceramic piece to be quite honest)

I’d expect, or at least really hope, that if you purchased a Code QP from the boutique then you should be an appropriate candidate for a ceramic piece. I’m saying this based on the assumption that this QP is as rare/hard to be allocated as many people suggest. Hard to say for sure obviously, but your point is well taken if you were to buy that from boutique.

[thekman]

Originally Posted by Armis

I’d expect, or at least really hope, that if you purchased a Code QP from the boutique then you should be an appropriate candidate for a ceramic piece. I’m saying this based on the assumption that this QP is as rare/hard to be allocated as many people suggest. Hard to say for sure obviously, but your point is well taken if you were to buy that from boutique.

I sure would hope so. Having said that I am not in a position to buy a 100k watch at this point. My comment is more of a hypothetical situation given the decreasing market prices of non-RO pieces and AP's constant price increases. I am afraid this may not end well for the brand.