Presumably prices should start to move

[Paddydog52]

back up moving forward you would imagine:

https://www.cityam.com/watches-of-sw...-watch-market/

[Vetracer]

Personally, I don't think we'll ever get back to the crazy prices we saw during global lockdowns when people were trapped in their houses with nothing but food, mortgage/ rent and household bills to spend their salaries or stimulus checks on.

Eventually with time, inflation will cause prices to go back to those dizzy heights, but by then a loaf of bread will cost £4 or $4.

[BillA]

I would like to see a few quarters of sales results before saying things are ticking back up.

[Calatrava r]

My sense of it is used/secondhand prices have fallen as much as they are going to and will drift up into year-end and the new year. There is some uncertainty now which will go away once the interest rate trends are better known. The only certainty is Rolex will raise the MSRP at some point soon.

[007_Omega]

I still think the used market is on a downward trend. I’m not talking about nosedive or anything like that but it’s trickling down.

The watch market is in a tricky situation. I genuinely think the brands raised their prices too much.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[4reRlxGuy]

I have 2 ADs I work with. One SA whom I've work with longer has told me this summer's sales have been very slow. Only the desirable pieces sell.

The other tells me everything is fine and has only offered precious metal pieces this year.

[PaulMiami]

https://subdial.com/market

Not a great looking chart …. Grey market is full of inventory and ADs are also beginning to fill up. That little blip up in the chart in the last few weeks is not very meaningful

[NigeG]

Put a positive spin on it whenever possible WoS. More and more pre owned dealers are cutting prices. AD’s have shorter waitlists for some models, definitely anything two tone is much easier to obtain.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Hollie_Rollie]

Originally Posted by PaulMiami

https://subdial.com/market

Not a great looking chart …. Grey market is full of inventory and ADs are also beginning to fill up. That little blip up in the chart in the last few weeks is not very meaningful

Agreed. Bundling isn’t as sexy as it once was for those looking to make a quick buck on a flip.

I’m also wondering how the lab created diamond market is affecting bundling at all. Before if you bought the higher margin overpriced diamonds you’d get the hot model in a few a months. Now the young kids seem to be buying lab grown


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[jb335]

Market seems stable to me. I doubt any large movement in any direction.

Just a slight uptick through the last quarter and early next year…like always.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Talon84]

Originally Posted by Paddydog52

back up moving forward you would imagine:

https://www.cityam.com/watches-of-sw...-watch-market/

So, a business that sells watches and has a vested interest says ‘nothing to see here, sales will be on the rise’…..huh

Pre owned market is still dropping, not by a crazy amount, but its not bottomed yet

https://watchcharts.com/

[train-time]

I visited my local AD's new flagship store for the first time over the Labor Day weekend. The last time I stopped in was at their old location and a year and a half ago. The new store has a "store within the store" for Rolex with the small cube like cases that sit on counters and some cases in the walls. I was absolutely amazed at the stock! Nearly every model and variations of a model was on display, but all with "Exhibition Only" signs inside of the cases. I recall thinking about how much $$$$ they are sitting on for display only pieces!

[Hemdog]

Originally Posted by train-time

I visited my local AD's new flagship store for the first time over the Labor Day weekend. The last time I stopped in was at their old location and a year and a half ago. The new store has a "store within the store" for Rolex with the small cube like cases that sit on counters and some cases in the walls. I was absolutely amazed at the stock! Nearly every model and variations of a model was on display, but all with "Exhibition Only" signs inside of the cases. I recall thinking about how much $$$$ they are sitting on for display only pieces!

I think the exhibition only watches have already been sold

[MRBolton]

They said it's within expectations, but perhaps those expectations are lowered.

[Barada7]

Sounds like a luxury watch seller with shareholders to please.

[NigeG]

Originally Posted by train-time

I visited my local AD's new flagship store for the first time over the Labor Day weekend. The last time I stopped in was at their old location and a year and a half ago. The new store has a "store within the store" for Rolex with the small cube like cases that sit on counters and some cases in the walls. I was absolutely amazed at the stock! Nearly every model and variations of a model was on display, but all with "Exhibition Only" signs inside of the cases. I recall thinking about how much $$$$ they are sitting on for display only pieces!

And pretty much all of those “Exhibition only” pieces are already sold. The AD keeps them on display for 90 days or so until the next sold unit arrives and becomes an exhibition piece.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Kingcobb]

lol...its september, the stock market is red, people are drumming up recession fears again, coming out of a very slow summer, and WoS is trying to claim prices are on the rise....like clockwork.

[~JJ]

No, my magic eight ball says hyped items never return to their glory days.

[BillA]

Originally Posted by Kingcobb

lol...its september, the stock market is red, people are drumming up recession fears again, coming out of a very slow summer, and WoS is trying to claim prices are on the rise....like clockwork.

Nope. People feeling better about economy.

[bp1000]

I'd ignore these articles.

Their stock took a battering, PR is just a tool they use to try and give confidence.

In reality, buyer behaviour is quite similar to pre c19 now (so normal) but secondary prices are still above the point of expectation, not that far above, but still more than a typical dealer margin - so It will take some time, mainly on the trade in values to further correct.

You can see this because stock is sitting longer than it was, people want a better deal but there isn't margin to do it. To test this I had a few trade in values for a variety of watches from Tudor to Patek and they were all conservative, even the Rolex.

In summary, who knows, people will be greedy in future too, but watches have always traded around retail +/- 25% and this is the expectation you should have on most models. Its not profitable, its a hobby, only rare pieces have exponential value, Nautilus and Aquanaut were not always double retail, they were 20% under.

[gerry100]

I still wonder how much ultimate demand for Rolexes has been "pulled forward" by Covid and easy money.
Easy money and boredom got me out to buy my "one and done" Rolex.

Wanted a Rolex for may years but never got around it until then.

Could mean the price reversal is sharper than anticipated

[Vince_76]

Originally Posted by ~JJ

No, my magic eight ball says hyped items never return to their glory days.

I agree, on an inflation-adjusted basis. Unless we have economic conditions similar to what happened to Covid.

And tastes change

[pepemaui]

Hello….

Finance is cyclical…..

It took years for this watch market to peak. It will take years to get to the true bottom. In my estimation we’re just not there, maybe not even close to the bottom yet.

[subtona]

I expect a steady slide to normalcy.

The discussion of watch hype is saturated and tired.
The deplorable sales practices have become common knowledge.
The risk of theft in many places has received widespread news coverage.


My 2¢

[Apdl]

Originally Posted by Vetracer

Personally, I don't think we'll ever get back to the crazy prices we saw during global lockdowns when people were trapped in their houses with nothing but food, mortgage/ rent and household bills to spend their salaries or stimulus checks on.

Eventually with time, inflation will cause prices to go back to those dizzy heights, but by then a loaf of bread will cost £4 or $4.

Bread does cost $4

[TheVision]

Other than real estate, everything else is crashing and with elections closing in, more uncertainty and people holding onto their $$$$$. Not the time to plunge $$$$ into luxury watches. Rolex grey market pricing is also taking a massive dump (certain models are basically retail plus taxes).

More people that were on waitlists over a year now will now say "I'll pass". I'm on waitlist for batman and rep texted me a picture of rootbeer gmt last week that a customer didnt pick up. I politely declined.

I was in Vegas last month and AD in Caesars Palace had 3 models for walk in....DJ41 white on smooth, DJ38 wimbleton dial, and white gold sub.

I personally know people that were on waitlists over a year ago have now "gotten the call". Stock is definitely getting better.

[JSCP]

People are. it spending on luxury as much:
- economic uncertainty
- some of us have too many watches already
- good watches got VIP
- less desirable being offered more often now
- grey dealers prices lower for same reasons above
- price increases makes people think is it worth it.

[jfmiii]

Originally Posted by TheVision

Other than real estate, everything else is crashing and with elections closing in, more uncertainty and people holding onto their $$$$$. Not the time to plunge $$$$ into luxury watches. Rolex grey market pricing is also taking a massive dump (certain models are basically retail plus taxes).

More people that were on waitlists over a year now will now say "I'll pass". I'm on waitlist for batman and rep texted me a picture of rootbeer gmt last week that a customer didnt pick up. I politely declined.

I was in Vegas last month and AD in Caesars Palace had 3 models for walk in....DJ41 white on smooth, DJ38 wimbleton dial, and white gold sub.

I personally know people that were on waitlists over a year ago have now "gotten the call". Stock is definitely getting better.

What exactly is “crashing?” Equities are 3% off their ATH. I’m working with a design-build firm on a remodel and they are booked through next year. I’m trying to find Taj Mahal quartzite for my kitchen and new slabs that come in sell within a few days. If you think things are crashing, you haven’t experienced one before.

[Kingcobb]

Originally Posted by jfmiii

What exactly is “crashing?” Equities are 3% off their ATH. I’m working with a design-build firm on a remodel and they are booked through next year. I’m trying to find Taj Mahal quartzite for my kitchen and new slabs that come in sell within a few days. If you think things are crashing, you haven’t experienced one before.

I don't know about crashing, but all 3 indexes took a beating this week.

New job report was well below expectations.

Manufacturing job report was even worse.

Credit defaults are climbing

Oil market is way down and thud Rig count is down..

They just raised the jobless claims for July from 450,000 new claims to 800,000....

Investors are positioning themselves for a recession not saying that's what's coming, but that's what the market is currently freaking out about.

If the report on Friday comes in bad...hold onto your hat.

[Kingcobb]

Originally Posted by BillA

Nope. People feeling better about economy.

Depends on the people.

Democrats are positive on economy since Harris replaced Biden, Republicans are negative, and independents have stayed flat.

Job market is weakening, stock market is red, and people are freaked out about a recession...necessarily I think, but the worry is there.