Vintage 'Grails'

[escudoturbo]

Does anyone else ever look at items like the 'Paul Newman Daytonas' and 'Orange Hand EXP II' and think the premium these pieces command can't be sustaind for ever? Is there going to be a big market correction in five or ten years that suddenely leves a lot of 'speculative' watch owner holding expensive Rolex vintage, when the wider market has moved on to Patek, Longcase clocks or whatever the next 'trend' is?

[SPORTSFAN]

I think that dealers target originally unpopular pieces and create a demand for them in order to increase the price.

It could be said that the "Newman" Daytona was ahead of it's time, whatever the reasons it was a poor seller new so that was an obvious target.

The orange hand Explorer was also not well thought of new, the dial was said to be too busy, again maybe before it's time ?

The Milgauss 1019 was also very slow to hit the mark. So there would be three ideal targets to have their prices influenced.

How about the high productions, well Rolex played a blinder with the Submariner,Milsub, Comex,Reds there is a lot to go at right there.

The one that annoys me is the "Spider dial", It's just faulty plain and simple how anyone would buy it just escapes me.

So to answer your original question, I believe that prices will drop like a stone when people realise that it really is just a manupulated market.

[Singslinger]

I agree that prices of some of these "grails'' are way too inflated - and possibly artificially so.

But I think the same applies to other brands like Patek, AP and Lange, whose discontinued models fetch sky-high prices in the auction market.

[oztimelord]

The same was said about the price of these watches 10 years ago for those that remember.

From my collecting history watches that comand a premium will continue to do so even in a correction. Those that look at watches as an investment are the ones that will have a rude shock one day.


Overpriced tropical dial (still my favourite and potentially one of a kind)




This old thing




Hope these two beauties halve in price

Then I can hopefully buy more.

The real hastle however is to get the genuine item which are rare indeed.

I still consider myself very fortunate that I had the crazy money to buy these.

[Changmaisausage]

timelord sweet looking watches I just love them, how long have owned them for?

[oztimelord]

Originally Posted by Changmaisausage

timelord sweet looking watches I just love them, how long have owned them for?

Not long enough LOL.

I bought them slightly over 16 months ago at the height of the financial crisis. Prior, watches such as these just were not available.

Mind you I still paid premium prices

[HL65]

Rene--Cool watches--very lucky!!

[padi56]

The price for any watch vintage or modern is only in what the market will bare and what someone is willing to pay.When my Father bought his 6263 he was given a big discount in those days £25,he went originally to buy a Sub.Now at this time 1982 the sub was around £100 more expensive than the Daytona.So with the discount and money saved over the Sub to the Daytona price he had enough money left to buy my mother a new washing machine.The watch is now mine but would never sell it at any price.How things have changed in a few decades from a watch that Rolex could not sell.Now to a watch thats one of the most now desirable on the planet,and quite ironic some of the most collectible Rolex today don't even have a Rolex movement.

[alfanator]

[QUOTE=oztimelord;1659943]The same was said about the price of these watches 10 years ago for those that remember.

From my collecting history watches that comand a premium will continue to do so even in a correction. Those that look at watches as an investment are the ones that will have a rude shock one day.

QUOTE]

+1. Should have kept some i tossed back and glad i did not toss them all back.

[CPTL]

Maybe some of the recent price spikes can be attributed to speculation. I think the 1655s were going for around $7K to $10K five years ago; now they're nearing in on $30K. I could be off a bit on the numbers, but this has been discussed here, and I seem to recall that the prices spiked relatively recently.

Same can probably be said for vintage models overall--watch collecting is starting to take off. No doubt this is fueled by the internet and watch forums; anyone can become an "expert" in a few years by sharing in the combined experience of multiple collectors worldwide, and thus more collectors searching for the same pieces drives up prices.

[DadsWatch72]

I think that the more ceramic's are produced, the more people will miss the old styles and iconic designed Rolex watches.....especially the ones with acrylic crystals. I think that the watches that are considered vintage today (as of this date) will continue to hold/increase in value. I'm not so sure that this will be the case with the recently produced Rolex watches though.

[ParisDakarBmw]

I personally don't remember anything sentimental regarding these watches, but understand that they are collectable. I don't think I would ever purchase one of these. Not because of price, but the cosmetics. I like a solid bezel, with a bezel insert to give it a "Mo Better" look. The exploror, and daytona look like they are missing something.

[padi56]

Originally Posted by ParisDakarBmw

I personally don't remember anything sentimental regarding these watches, but understand that they are collectable. I don't think I would ever purchase one of these. Not because of price, but the cosmetics. I like a solid bezel, with a bezel insert to give it a "Mo Better" look. The exploror, and daytona look like they are missing something.

But the 6263 Daytona does have a black bezel insert.

[mike]

It's an issue the comes up now and then. To some extent there might be some truth into the theroy of "creating a market". I don't think dealers are the only ones involved however; collectors have been known to "hype" certain references/"looks" as well.

I tend to fall into the camp that views the market as as two tiered system now.

Quality pieces in pristine condition will always command the higher price as will those with all the bits.

Where there has been a bit of a drift IMHO is in the area of "common" pieces for want of a better discription.

The urge to acquire a specific vintage reference reguardless of condition has left some "holding the bag" as it were when the "bubble" at least let out some air, if not bursting all together.

Sometimes those new to the hobby experience a "rush to judgement" if you will to obtain a certain reference and there are those quick to ask (and sometimes receive) prices on par with pristine examples of reference. Only later after a bit of study does the new buyer find his "grail" is not on par with other examples of the same.

I would submit that not do we see this with reguard to wathes themselves, but the parts market is another area where one must tread carefully at times.

Just some thoughts......

[hennabav]

I think the grail vintage timepieces will never plummet like the housing market. The difference between the watch market and housing is that one is a luxury and collectible item, meanwhile the housing bubble was due to all speculators. I mean a house you can rebuild again but a timepiece will not be recreated by the manufacturer once production stops. Like collectible automobiles, prices of watches will fluctuate with demand but they will never plummet. Some of these watches on the current market are inflated and maybe in the future, the market will self correct, but they will never drop back to being near values of 15 years ago. People have been collecting watches for many many decades and there will always be a high demand as this industry has already been well established for hundreds of years.

[layne]

I agree with you Jon (hennabav). There are only a finite amount of these vintage out there. More demand than supply raises the price & someone coming across a piece they want after much searching, is likely to spend that little bit extra than the last guy to get it. Some good points made above about speculators entering the market & the influence dealers have. In the end, it is the market place that dictates what these pieces are worth. In bad economic times values may decrease somewhat, but IMHO in the long run, values will increase.

Rene & Padi - beautiful pieces you have there.