GMT II Pepsi M-series value

[kgglonghorn]

Originally Posted by SteelerFan1965

What many people fail to recognize is when there is little or no supply--price becomes a factor. It all depends on how much someone wants one. Also- What one person sees a a good piece to collect is relative to that person and the market is a great reflection of that. Thirdly- paying retail or even a bit above--which is what we are talking about is not paying a huge premium like one would in other watches like an AP Bumblebee for example. Lastly- Enough of the 3186 movement already--the GMT ll Pepsi/Coke value--if you don't like it--don't buy it--for all of those who say they won't pay more than 4500 or so--guess what--You will not be getting one. End of story.....The marketplace is the true test and it speaks for itself.

Solid post. Why do some people refuse to accept the concept of MARKET VALUE of the watch?

[hennabav]

Originally Posted by kgglonghorn

Why do some people refuse to accept the concept of MARKET VALUE of the watch?

Good question Kevin. It just seems they just can't see how others are thinking other than themselves.

[jdc]

Originally Posted by kgglonghorn

Solid post. Why do some people refuse to accept the concept of MARKET VALUE of the watch?

I don't think anyone is, what I was saying among others that this is currently hyped IMO and will not sustain in the long term as the difference is a minor alteration to the caliber and collectors have not bothered with that in the past. Others like yourself have a different view. I don't know who will be right or wrong in the future. Time will tell. Its all speculation and having different points of view

[CPTL]

Originally Posted by jdc

I don't think anyone is, what I was saying among others that this is currently hyped IMO and will not sustain in the long term as the difference is a minor alteration to the caliber and collectors have not bothered with that in the past. Others like yourself have a different view. I don't know who will be right or wrong in the future. Time will tell. Its all speculation and having different points of view

x2.

I don't know why y'all are getting so defensive. No one is questioning that the CURRENT MARKET is sustaining these prices. We all understand supply and demand. We're not idiots.

The QUESTION is whether this watch will have true, long-term collectability, like a red Sub, 1655, or even a Zenith Daytona (which commands about a 20% premium over the current model, making it analogous to current pricing for the M-serial 16710).

Our POSITION has three basic points.

First, the 3186 is a very minor modification; it doesn't add any functional or intrinsic value to the watch. (Certainly not like going from EP to 4130 on the Daytona.) Therefore, the price premium can't be justified because an M-serial is 25% "better" than a D-serial.

Second, the 3186 is a minor change in terms of differences for collector purposes. I'll admit: I'm not a collector, so I have no informed opinion on this. However, several folks on this forum who are very knowledgeable collectors of various references are skeptical: they're not waging their own money on the "collectability" of the M-serial 16710.

Third, the current pricing scheme is basically a bubble caused by speculation. Just like housing prices in Tampa and Scottsdale, short term price increases have resulted in skyrocketing demand by those hoping to buy low and sell high. Individual buyers are motivated by one of two things: (1) hope of future returns, or (2) expectation that the trend will increase, so if you ever hope to get one "the time is now." Neither of these demand forces are based on long-term collectablility; both are based on a perception that there is a supply shortage.

You guys keep railing against this argument, but none of you have addressed it. "Why don't these guys understand supply and demand" is denying the argument, not addressing it.

Yeah, I'm sick of this conversation too. But the lawyer in me can't concede a counterpoint where none has been made.

[Brushpup]

Originally Posted by Juggernaut

A little off the subject, but with the 3186 being quite a different movement fromthe 3185, did Rolex have to modify the 16710 dials to fit the new movement??

The movement really isn't all that different Droog. Some minor changes and improvements, but nothing major.

[karmatp]

Originally Posted by CPTL

x2.

I don't know why y'all are getting so defensive. No one is questioning that the CURRENT MARKET is sustaining these prices. We all understand supply and demand. We're not idiots.

The QUESTION is whether this watch will have true, long-term collectability, like a red Sub, 1655, or even a Zenith Daytona (which commands about a 20% premium over the current model, making it analogous to current pricing for the M-serial 16710).

Our POSITION has three basic points.

First, the 3186 is a very minor modification; it doesn't add any functional or intrinsic value to the watch. (Certainly not like going from EP to 4130 on the Daytona.) Therefore, the price premium can't be justified because an M-serial is 25% "better" than a D-serial.

Second, the 3186 is a minor change in terms of differences for collector purposes. I'll admit: I'm not a collector, so I have no informed opinion on this. However, several folks on this forum who are very knowledgeable collectors of various references are skeptical: they're not waging their own money on the "collectability" of the M-serial 16710.

Third, the current pricing scheme is basically a bubble caused by speculation. Just like housing prices in Tampa and Scottsdale, short term price increases have resulted in skyrocketing demand by those hoping to buy low and sell high. Individual buyers are motivated by one of two things: (1) hope of future returns, or (2) expectation that the trend will increase, so if you ever hope to get one "the time is now." Neither of these demand forces are based on long-term collectablility; both are based on a perception that there is a supply shortage.

You guys keep railing against this argument, but none of you have addressed it. "Why don't these guys understand supply and demand" is denying the argument, not addressing it.

Yeah, I'm sick of this conversation too. But the lawyer in me can't concede a counterpoint where none has been made.

Well said Kevin. If I ever get in trouble, I'll give you a call.

[SEK John]

All I know is I want one.....3185, 3186....who cares. I'm not a collector and just like the watch.

[MikeyTX]

Originally Posted by jdc

I don't think anyone is, what I was saying among others that this is currently hyped IMO and will not sustain in the long term as the difference is a minor alteration to the caliber and collectors have not bothered with that in the past. Others like yourself have a different view. I don't know who will be right or wrong in the future. Time will tell. Its all speculation and having different points of view

+3 I've decided that I won't pay a premium just to get a GMT ll vs a GMT II dial. Nor, would I pay a premium because of the caliber. For what is being asked for them by a number of gray market sellers, I'll buy a new Milgauss of my choice.

[HL65]

I think that this topic is about as old as it can get! I guess transitional watches--or watches that were made for shorter periods of time-thus there are less of--are deemed to be worthy of those of us who collect watches and thus do get a premium or at least factually trade that way in the marketplace based on what people are willing to pay--regardless of how slight the change--movement or spring bar -etc. --for example the IWC Big Pilot 5002 vs. 5004. Ok--I am not an attorney--I but also think that to use the term bubble when it comes to a slight premium or someone having to pay a few hundred over retail a bit of an exageration. The premium being paid is far less than the premium on a Daytona-and so I paid full retail for mine. A watch going for a 5-10% premium is hardly a speculative bubble comparable to real estate bubble. And that is the invesmtent professional in me. With that as Jim Rome says--"Goodnight now!"

[MikeyTX]

SteelerFan1965, does this mean you're going nighty night as my 20 yr old just did 'cause he stayed up gaming on line ?

[HL65]

LOL--May common sense prevail though! I thought most newer serial number watches--ie. a V or M cost more than a D or F as they are newer--they usually sell for slightly more. A V Daytona costs more than an F--at least that is what the marketplace says. Maybe I am just a bit slow--my bad--forgive me Father Guido.

[MikeyTX]

(sighs) I still want the GMT Pepsi ll you and I discussed by p/m. My hope is that the hype will slowly diminish and the prices become more reasonable. Something is truly wrong when I can, vis a vis our own Mosco, buy an unworn, with all plastic in place, in the box Milgauss green crystal for less than a gently worn GMT ll because of the so called rare dial. Go figure.

[HL65]

Mike--When you are ready--will send you in right direction!!! Best--Ken

[kgglonghorn]

I think on many levels, the 3186 movement is a red herring...the watch is hot b/c it has historically been one of the more popular Rolex models and is no longer available. I think people are scrambling to get a "new 1670" It only makes sense that these people a) want the Pepsi, as that has always been the "coveted one" and b) want the 3186 b/c it symbolizes the end of the pepsi GMT era.
Me? I looked for a long time for a new one and paid a premium b/c I don't like buying used things if I do not have to. I HAD TO HAVE pepsi and I HAD TO HAVE 16710...the movement was a very nice bonus, but strictly (for me anyway) b/c I am in the tech industry and we have been conditioned for years to believe that newer is better. (Of course I know that is not always true) In fact, I found two, so I bought two.
I dont care what the watch will be worth in 20 years...I plan on giving them both to my two sons when they are old enough to appreciate them.

[HL65]

Well said Kevin--agree. They cost what they do--the newer the more money--the premium was not too high as I stated before--certainly less than a Daytona premium. Best! Lucky sons one day too!!

[MikeyTX]

Originally Posted by SteelerFan1965

Mike--When you are ready--will send you in right direction!!! Best--Ken

Believe me, I will seek you out. I saved the p/m's.

[HL65]

[Speed]

Originally Posted by kgglonghorn

I think on many levels, the 3186 movement is a red herring...the watch is hot b/c it has historically been one of the more popular Rolex models and is no longer available. I think people are scrambling to get a "new 1670" It only makes sense that these people a) want the Pepsi, as that has always been the "coveted one" and b) want the 3186 b/c it symbolizes the end of the pepsi GMT era.
Me? I looked for a long time for a new one and paid a premium b/c I don't like buying used things if I do not have to. I HAD TO HAVE pepsi and I HAD TO HAVE 16710...the movement was a very nice bonus, but strictly (for me anyway) b/c I am in the tech industry and we have been conditioned for years to believe that newer is better. (Of course I know that is not always true) In fact, I found two, so I bought two.
I dont care what the watch will be worth in 20 years...I plan on giving them both to my two sons when they are old enough to appreciate them.

Very cool Kevin.

If by some chance your kids don't appreciate what will then be a MINT Vintage watch, you can likely sell them for a tidy sum. Unless of course they tank in popularity / desirability...but I think not. Look at how Vintage Rolexes inspire lust today.

[MikeyTX]

Originally Posted by Speed

Very cool Kevin.

If by some chance your kids don't appreciate what will then be a MINT Vintage watch, you can likely sell them for a tidy sum. Unless of course they tank in popularity / desirability...but I think not. Look at how Vintage Rolexes inspire lust today.

My ex wife wish's she could say the same.

[layne]

Originally Posted by kgglonghorn

I think on many levels, the 3186 movement is a red herring...the watch is hot b/c it has historically been one of the more popular Rolex models and is no longer available. I think people are scrambling to get a "new 1670" It only makes sense that these people a) want the Pepsi, as that has always been the "coveted one" and b) want the 3186 b/c it symbolizes the end of the pepsi GMT era.
Me? I looked for a long time for a new one and paid a premium b/c I don't like buying used things if I do not have to. I HAD TO HAVE pepsi and I HAD TO HAVE 16710...the movement was a very nice bonus, but strictly (for me anyway) b/c I am in the tech industry and we have been conditioned for years to believe that newer is better. (Of course I know that is not always true) In fact, I found two, so I bought two.
I dont care what the watch will be worth in 20 years...I plan on giving them both to my two sons when they are old enough to appreciate them.

I myself was on the lookout for one of these 16710's with the 3186 because i wanted the pepsi / coke interchangeable bezel inserts with the new movement. In the end i purchased a gmtIIc because felt great on the wrist & was cheaper than the M series gmt. I couldn't justify paying a premium for the new movement being in the older model. Rolex still produced enough of them that they are not really rare IMO

[HL65]

Maybe one of the shortest run of any watch they produced --a whole series and a small part of another--M and small percentage of Z. So--if that is not rare in that specific combo--not sure what is.

[layne]

Originally Posted by SteelerFan1965

Maybe one of the shortest run of any watch they produced --a whole series and a small part of another--M and small percentage of Z. So--if that is not rare in that specific combo--not sure what is.

True. What i meant by not rare is that there are still thousands upon thousands out there.

[kgglonghorn]

Originally Posted by layne

True. What i meant by not rare is that there are still thousands upon thousands out there.

As I mentioned, I bought them strictly because the pepsi GMT is my favorite watch of all time and is seemingly gone forever (as a NIB product)...that being said, FWIW, I have seen numbers that would indicate that there are somewhere in the neighborhood of 20-30,000 total 16710's with the 3186 movement, a fraction of which shipped with the pepsi bezels.

[nauticajoe]

Great thread guys! Now I feel like buying another GMTII!

I am not a collector by any means. I just want to pass on my watches to my 2 sons one day. If they ever did their homework with Rolexes, they will know that this is one of very few watches that are built in-house.

Just to switch gears here, question for you - is it easy to interchange the bezel, eg. from Pepsi to Coke, etc...? Or do I need to bring it in?

[HL65]

There is a video on Youtube shows how to do it. Best!

[nauticajoe]

Thanks Ken! I don't think I'll be using a stopwatch though.

[OrchidDR]

Wow!

Quite the "debate". Supply and demand notwithstanding, the "perception" of rarity is enough to create a greater demand for these beautiful watches.

I looked at a 16710 back in Oct09 but went with my heart and puchased a late F series 16713 for $4500. I don't regret it one bit, but the entrepreneur spirit in me wishes othewise.

[hennabav]

It seems like it has only been recently that the GMT II 3186 has been coming back up on prices. I looked at some other forums and TRF for sale section and I noticed the prices came down a bit during the end of 2009. Recently, I have not seen one for sale come up. Are people all just holding on to them? Also, have prices recently climbed back up on these??

[novae500]

i have an F series GMT II coke that i got over the summer....guess its not as collectible as the M series?? But what i paid for mine, it makes me happy when i look at it thru the day